土地集约利用与经济发展关系的动态计量分析——以江苏省为例

在测度经济发展与土地集约利用的基础上，运用动态计量经济模型探讨经济发展与土地集约利用的相互作用。研究结果表明：（1）经济发展与土地集约利用均为一阶单整序列；（2）经济发展与土地集约利用之间存在长期均衡关系，但短期内却存在失衡，短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度达到5026%；（3）经济发展是土地集约利用的Granger原因，而反向关系得不到实证支持；（4）土地集约利用对来自经济发展的冲击响应强烈，经济发展的冲击对土地集约利用的解释水平达到了85%，而经济发展对来自土地集约利用的冲击响应较弱，土地集约利用的冲击对经济发展的解释水平仅为2%。因此，应有效转变经济发展方式，加强土地利用监督管理，提高土地资源集约利用水平，不断提升土地资源对经济发展的保障能力

DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LAND INTENSIVE UTILIZATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

Based on measuring the degree of economic development and land intensive utilization,the paper explored the interactions between economic development and land intensive utilization by dynamic econometrics.The results showed that both of economic development and land intensive utilization were integrated of order one.There existed equilibrium relationship between them in long term whereas things were different in short term,and the range of short term equilibrium was close to long term equilibrium,which was 50.26%.Grange causality test showed that economic development was the grange cause of land intensive utilization,but the opposite grange causality couldn’t be proved by the empirical study.The response of land intensive utilization to economic development impulse was remarkable,and the economic development impulse could explain the change of land intensive utilization to a certain extent of 85%.The response of economic development to land intensive utilization impulse was weak,and the land intensive utilization impulse could explain the change of economic development to a certain extent of only 2%.Therefore,it was necessary to vigorously promote transformation of economic development mode,strengthen supervision and management for land utilization,improve the land intensive utilization,and enhance the support capabilities of land resources for economic development.