虚拟耕地资源与农业经济增长：作用机理及贡献份额研

虚拟耕地资源被广泛认为是缓解国内耕地资源压力和促进农业经济增长的重要举措之一。在论证虚拟耕地资源贸易对农业经济增长作用机理分析的基础上，计算1996~2018年中国主要农产品虚拟耕地资源贸易量，并对虚拟耕地资源对农业经济增长中的贡献份额进行实证分析，为调整对外贸易战略及优化耕地资源策略提供参考。结果表明：虚拟耕地资源可以在更大范围内实现耕地资源的优化配置；主要农产品贸易的巨大逆差决定了中国是虚拟耕地资源净进口大国，其中，油料是虚拟耕地资源净进口量最大的品种；虚拟耕地资源对农业经济增长的贡献率为0.26%，观点得到了佐证。同时，还提出了要试点实施虚拟耕地资源，全力以赴做好贸易政策调整战略；充分利用国内外“两种资源、两个市场”，倒逼主要农产品进行结构调整；努力构建虚拟耕地资源管理新模式，推动农业“走出去”与市场多元化结合等政策建议。

Virtual Cultivated Land Resources and Agricultural Economic Growth: Study on Effect Mechanism and Contribution Share

Virtual cultivated land resources are widely regarded as one of the important measures to relieve the pressure of domestic cultivated land resources and promote agricultural economic growth. Based on the analysis of the effect mechanism of virtual cultivated land resource trade on agricultural economic growth, this paper calculates the trade volume of virtual cultivated land resources of China's main agricultural products from 1996 to 2018, and empirically analyzes the contribution share of virtual cultivated land resources to agricultural economic growth, which provides references for adjusting foreign trade strategy and optimizing cultivated land resource strategy. The results show that: virtual cultivated land resources can realize the optimal allocation of cultivated land resources in a larger range; The huge trade deficit of major agricultural products determines that China is a big net importer of virtual cultivated land resources, among which oil is the largest one; The contribution rate of virtual cultivated land resources to agricultural economic growth is 0.26%, which proves the viewpoint. At the same time, this paper also puts forward some policy suggestions, such as the pilot implementation of virtual cultivated land resources to make every effort to complete the strategy of trade policy adjustment, making full use of “two kinds of resources and markets” at home and abroad to force the structural adjustment of main agricultural products, building a new model of virtual cultivated land resources management to promote the combination of “going out” of agriculture and market diversification.