城镇化对制度转型的影响——基于江苏13个市的脉冲响应函数分析

运用脉冲响应函数分析了江苏各市2000~2015年的城镇化率对于制度转型3个维度（分权化、市场化、全球化）的影响。指标选取方面，以地方政府财政分权比例衡量分权化，以非国有（含非国有控股）工业总产值占全部工业总产值比重衡量市场化，以进出口总额占GDP比重衡量全球化。研究得出以下结果：（1）江苏各市城镇化进程较为有力地推动了分权化水平的提高，在苏北地区更为显著；（2）城镇化进程对于市场化水平的提升较为乏力，但苏锡常三市的市场化对城镇化的脉冲响应均表现为正；（3）城镇化对全球化的冲击也较为显著，高速城镇化带来的劳动力为对外贸易创造了巨大的经济价值；（4）总体来看，城镇化对制度转型3个维度的冲击，在初期社会经济发展相对落后的地区更为显著。 关键词： 城镇化；制度转型；分权化；市场化；全球化；脉冲响应

Impact of Urbanization on Institutional Transformation：Analysis of Impulse Response Function Based on 13 Cities In Jiangsu Province

Using the impulse response function, this paper analyzed the impact of urbanization on the institutional transformation of all the cities in Jiangsu Province between 2000 and 2015 by three dimensions (decentralization, marketization and globalization). Then three indices, the proportion of local governments’ fiscal decentralization, the proportion of the non-state-owned and non-state-controlled industrial gross outputs value in the total industrial value, and the ratio of total import and export value to GDP, were chosen to measure decentralization, marketization and globalization, respectively. The results showed that: ① Urbanization greatly promoted the improvement of decentralization in Jiangsu Province, especially for the north part of Jiangsu; ② Urbanization played a little role in marketization, but it showed a positive effect on marketization in the three cities , Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou; ③ Urbanization also exerted significant influence on globalization, and the labor force raised by rapid urbanization has brought tremendous economic benefit in the foreign trade; ④ In general, the impact of urbanization on the three dimensions of institutional transformation was more pronounced in less developed stages and less developed areas.