近15a江苏省水源涵养功能时空变化与影响因素探析

定量评估生态系统服务功能是合理利用自然资源、促进人地关系与可持续发展的基础。以江苏省为研究区，基于InVEST模型产水模块，定量分析了江苏省2000~2015年产水功能和水源涵养功能的时空变化特征，并采用回归分析和主成分分析法评估了水源涵养功能与社会经济要素之间的关系。结果表明：（1）江苏省多年平均产水量为571×108 m³/a，水源涵养总量78.39×108 m³/a；（2）2000~2010年江苏省水源涵养功能呈下降趋势，2010~2015年有所回升，考虑到降水因素，江苏省实际水源涵养功能持续降低；（3）土地利用变化使15a来水源涵养功能下降15.2×108 m³，降低幅度为16.9%；（4）流域尺度上水源涵养功能与江苏社会经济因素相关关系不显著。研究结果可以为土地利用优化、流域水资源管理提供科学参考和支持。

Variation and Influence Factors of Water Conservation Service Function in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2015

Quantitative evaluation of ecosystem service is the basis of reasonable use of natural resources, promoting the coordination of the man-land relationship and socio-economic sustainable development. The variations of water yield function and water conservative function in Jiangsu Province between 2000 and 2015 were analyzed through InVEST water yield model, and the relationship between water conservative function and social economic factors was further established by using regression analysis and principal component analysis. The results showed an average water yield of 571×108 m³/a, and a total water conservative of 78.39×108 m³/a. The water conservative function of Jiangsu Province had been a downward trend between 2000 and 2010, and seems to start to pick up from 2000 to 2015, which, considered the precipitation condition, is actually a steady decline. The declined water conservative function, obviously reduced 15.2×108 m³ during the nearly 15 years and lowered as much as 16.9 percent, is mainly a result of the land use change.There was probably a weak correlation among water retention function and the socio-economic factors in basin scale. The research results may provide a scientific guide and theoretical reference for optimizing land use and water resource management.