基于DEA模型的西南地区耕地利用效率时空格局演变及影响因素分析

耕地作为粮食生产之基，是人类社会赖以生存和发展的根源，其利用效率的高低，深刻影响着人类文明的发展与进步。以西南地区重庆、四川、贵州、云南4省（市）2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年4个年度的相关数据为基础，利用DEA模型估算了耕地利用效率，并通过全局Moran’I、趋势面分析、G*i指数从全局和局部分析了耕地利用综合效率的时空变化特征，最后，借助GWR回归模型分析了影响耕地利用效率空间分异的主要因素。结果表明：（1）2000~2015年间，耕地利用效率高值区的城市数量在不断扩大。在空间分布上，耕地利用效率稳定高值区域主要集中分布在四川省内的达州-德阳-成都-甘孜一线。重庆市耕地利用效率逐年增加的趋势；四川省持续保持高利用效率，且变化幅度不大；而贵州有下降的趋势，云南省则保持低效率利用状态。（2）西南地区耕地利用效率主要为正向的空间自相关性，空间分布趋势呈现出从西向东递增，以及由南向北倒“U”型递增态势。耕地利用综合效率空间格局分异显著，具有相对高值（低值）耕地利用效率在空间上呈现较强的组团式集聚分布态势，冷热点空间极化现象较为明显，界线分明，层次清晰，且随着时间变化，冷热点区域在空间上的分布态势有由“组团式”向“条带式”分布转变的趋势。（3）西南地区耕地利用效率时空演变受农民人均纯收入的影响最大，其次为复种指数，耕地质量和灌溉指数的影响程度相当，人均GDP对耕地利用效率的影响在逐年增加，地形因素的影响逐年减弱。

Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolvement Based on the DEA Model and Its Driving Factors of Arable Land Utilization Efficiency of the Southwest Region in China

As the basis of food production, arable land is the root of the survival and development of human society, and its utilization efficiency has profound influence on the development and progress of human civilization. In this study, southwest region in china including Chongqing city, Sichuan province, Guizhou province and Yunnan province as a case study, and based on the dataset in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, the DEA model was used to simulate the efficiency of arable land. Then, the global and local spatial pattern in different period of the arable land use efficiency had been analyzed by the method of global Moran’I, trend surface analysis and G*i index, respectively. At last, the main factors that influence the spatial differentiation of arable land utilization efficiency were evaluated by the method of geography weighted regression (GWR). The results showed that, firstly, between 2000 and 2015, the number of cities in high value areas of arable land utilization efficiency was expanding. Specifically, in the spatial distribution, the efficiency was stable, and the high value region mainly distributed in Dazhou-Deyang-Chengdu-Ganzi in Sichuan province. Sichuan province had maintained high efficiency and changed little; while, the efficiency in Chongqing city increased over time. The efficiency in Guizhou tended to decline, while Yunnan province remains inefficient. Secondly, the efficiency was mainly the positive spatial autocorrelation, and the spatial distribution trend increased from west to east, as well as the increase trend of the “U” pattern from south to north. Remarkable comprehensive of efficiency spatial pattern of differentiation, and relatively higher value/lower value of efficiency presented strong aggregation depended on the space distribution, cold/hot spatial pattern polarization phenomenon more obvious, clearly line and hierarchy. Change over time, the region of cold/ hot spots on the spatial pattern had changed from the “group” pattern to the “tape” pattern. Thirdly, the spatiotemporal change of the arable land utilization efficiency was the largest affected by driving factors of the per capita net income of farmers, followed by the multiple crop index; the effect of cultivated land quality and irrigation index was similar; the influence of per capita GDP to cultivated land use efficiency increased year by year; while, the effect of terrain factors decreased year by year.