流域绿水管理博弈建模及应用分析

绿水资源表示水循环通过降水渗透入土壤非饱和层并由植物蒸腾或土壤蒸发返回大气层的水汽，是农业作物生产的重要基础，但是通常被传统流域水资源管理所忽视。基于流域水量平衡和蓝水绿水综合思维，将绿水资源纳入流域水资源管理体系。在绿水信贷理念和博弈建模分析框架下，结合SWAT分布式水文模型、多目标优化及情景比较分析，利用绿水管理措施合理优化配置流域蓝水绿水资源，采用绿水生态补偿协调处理上下游利益冲突的博弈问题，探索性地提出了流域绿水管理博弈框架。该框架通过博弈建模可以识别分析流域绿水管理问题的博弈空间、博弈结构和纳什均衡等博弈特征；通过合作博弈约束条件改进的多目标优化，可以计算流域绿水管理情景的绿水补偿标准和帕累托最优收益。将建立的绿水管理博弈框架应用于涟水流域实例研究，NSE、R2、PBIAS、p-factor与r-factor等模拟效果评价和不确定性分析结果表明，涟水流域SWAT分布式水文模型的蓝水绿水模拟均达到可信程度。上下游收益变化、绿水补偿标准与帕累托最优解集等博弈分析结果显示，涟水流域整体社会经济与生态环境收益明显改善，其帕累托最优收益平均增长2.72亿元/a，年均绿水补偿标准折合1.94、1 253.7元/hm²。实例分析表明提出的绿水管理博弈框架在涟水流域具有较好的适用性和可行性。因此，该方法可以为流域蓝水绿水管理试点研究及其绿水补偿标准核定提供相关理论依据和技术参考，具有一定程度的的应用价值和现实意义。

Game Modeling and Application Analysis of Green Water Management in the River Basin

Green water resources indicate that the precipitation infiltrates into the soil unsaturated layer and returns to atmosphere by the plant transpiration and soil evaporation through hydrologic cycle, which is an important basis for the production of agricultural crops, however, it is usually ignored by traditional water resources management in the river basin. Based on the basin-wide water balance and concept of blue and green water，this paper proposes a method of taking green water resources into the basin water resources management. In the framework of the green water credit concept and game theory analysis, SWAT distributed hydrological model in combination with the multi-objective optimization and scenario comparison analysis, optimizes the allocation of watershed blue and green resources and coordinate interest conflicts between upstream and downstream through green water management and green water compensation. Accordingly, the game theory framework of basin green water management is exploratory proposed. This method can identify and analyze game space, game structure and Nash equilibrium of basin green water management by game modeling and can calculate green water compensation standards and Pareto optimal in different green water management scenarios by the improved optimization method and its cooperative game theory constraint conditions. Moreover, the game theory framework of green water management has been applied to the Lianshui river basin, and the simulation and uncertainty analysis results of NSE, R2, PBIAS, p-factor as well as r-factor indicated good performance of blue and green water simulation for the constructed SWAT distributed hydrology model in the Lianshui river basin. The game analysis results of revenue change between upstream and downstream, green water compensation standard and Pareto optimal solution set show that the overall socio-economic and ecological benefits of the Lianshui basin improved significantly. Its Pareto-optimal income increased by an average of 272 million yuan/a, and the average annual green water compensation standard was 1.94 yuan/m³ and 1 253.7 yuan/hm², which proved good applicability and feasibility of the proposed game theory framework of green water management in the Lianshui river basin. Consequently, this method can provide relevant theoretical basis and technical reference for the future river basin pilot study of blue and green water management and its green water compensation standard estimation, which has a certain degree of application value and practical significance.