城市化系统与生态系统交互耦合时空特征及协调发展预警研究——以湖南省为例

基于“系统演进特征分析-动态耦合规律验证-协调状态诊断及预警”框架，对湖南省2001年以来的城市化系统与生态系统交互耦合时空特征进行实证分析。研究发现：（1）湖南省城市化进程加速推进，综合发展指数由2001年的0.537逐年提升至2015年的0.785，达到中高水平，市州发展悬殊仅长沙市达到高水平。（2）生态系统健康指数呈U型走势，2015年达到0.764，处亚健康状态，系统压力较大是关键性限制因素。（3）城市化系统与生态系统耦合协调度先降后升，2015年提高到0.622，处基本协调的较低水平，各市州大多处于轻度失调-基本协调临界水平，分属生态建设滞后型、城市化滞后型和结构性污染型等3种类型。（4）从系统演进看，城市化系统与生态系统由轻度失调-逆向演替逐步转为轻度失调-正向演替、进一步转为基本协调-正向演替，预计2020年耦合协调度将提高到0.633，未来较长时期仍将处绿灯区，应采取适当的区域发展政策，推动城市化系统与生态系统内部要素调整磨合，向良性发展。

Study on Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Interaction Coupling Between Regional Urbanization System and Ecosystem and Early-warning of Coordinated Development: A Case of Hunan Province

Spatial-temporal coupling characteristics of interaction between urbanization and eco-environment in Hunan since 2001 are analyzed empirically based on the framework of “analysis of system evolution characteristics-validation of dynamic coupling relationship-coordination status diagnosis and early warning”. The results show that: (1) the comprehensive development index of urbanization in Hunan Province increased from 0.537 in 2001 to 0.785 in 2015, reaching a middle and high level, and Changsha is the only city which achieves high level in 14 cities; (2) the index of ecosystem health showed a trend of U, reaching 0.764 in 2015 and in sub-health state, and greater system pressure was the key limiting factor; (3) the degree of coordination between urbanization and eco-environment first declined and then increased to 0.622 in 2015, which was at a lower level of basic coordination, and most of the cities and towns were in the critical value of mild disorders to basic coordination, which belonged to three types: lagging behind ecological construction, lagging urbanization and structural pollution; (4) urbanization and eco-environment have changed from mild disorders-regressive succession to mild disorders-positive succession and further to basic coordination-positive succession from the overall perspective of system evolution, the coupling degree of urbanization and eco-environment will be increased to 0.633 in 2020; Hunan will be in the green area for a long time in the future, and appropriate regional development policies should be adopted to promote the healthy development of urbanization and eco-environment.