气候变化对江汉平原调水格局的影响

江汉平原水利工程密布,大型调水工程对流域用水格局产生很大影响。气候变化同时会影响调水工程调入调出区供需水情况,从而影响流域的水资源的分配。梳理了江汉平原主要调水工程,重点围绕南水北调中线工程与引江济汉工程的规划设计指标及实际运营状况,分析江汉平原潜在的用水矛盾。此外,在未来气候变化情景下,随着干旱时长和频次增加,会导致各调水工程抽水引水成本提高,从而加剧江汉平原用水矛盾。结果表明:(1)从工程设计和运行来看,南水北调中线工程达到调水设计后,引江济汉工程在保证汉江下游用水需求上受限可能性很大;(2)引江济汉工程自运行以来,虽未有较长时间的泵站抽水引水,但就2018年的泵站抽水引水成本来看已经达到运行总经费的30%。如果引江济汉工程引水口长江水位下降,自流引水受限,使用泵站抽水引水时长及频率将会增加,会导致引水费用进一步增加;(3)"南水北调中线"、"引汉济渭"、"鄂北水资源配置"工程,再叠加汉江中下游生产生活用水,如遇枯水年份,汉江水资源配置会产生很大的矛盾,对汉江流域及汉江生态经济带发展将产生影响。

Influence of Climate Change on Water Transfer Pattern in Jianghan Plain

Located in the Jianghan Plain densely, water conservancy projects, especially the large-scale water transfer projects, have a great influence on the structure of water utilization in the watershed. Due to climate change the water supply and demand related to the water transfer projects will also be affected and furthermore the water distribution in the watershed. Mapping the overall structure of the water projects in the Hanjiang River catchment, mainly focusing on the planning and design indices and the operation status of Mid-route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project(Mid-route Project) and the Jiang-Han Water Transfer Project(Yangtz-Hangjiang Project), this paper makes more clear of the potential conflicts in the water distribution due to the operation of these projects. In addition, based on the climate change scenarios from the scientific research in this area, and with the increase of the duration and frequency of drought, the cost of pumping and diverting water in the water diversion projects will increase, thus intensifying the water contradiction in Jianghan Plain. The main research results are as follows,(1) From the project design and operation, after the Mid-route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project reaches the design of water diversion, the Jianghan Water Transfer Project is likely to be limited in guaranteeing the water demand of the lower reaches of the Hanjiang River. (2) Since the operation of the project of diverting water from the Jianghan Water Transfer Project, the pumping and diversion cost of pumping stations in 2018 has reached 30% of the total operating funds, although there has not been a long period of pumping and diversion. If the water level of the Yangtze River at the diversion mouth of the Jianghan Water Transfer Project falls and the Self-diversion is limited, the time and frequency of using pumping station to divert water will increase, which will further increase the cost of diversion. (3)The Mid-route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, The Project of Diversion from Han to Weihe Rive and The Hubei North Water Resources Allocation Project. All three projects divert water from the Hanjiang River. Besides add water for production and living in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River. If encounter the dry year, the Hanjiang River allocation of water resources will bring great contradiction, which will affect the development of the Hanjiang River basin.