安徽省主要气象灾害趋势演变及其对粮食总产的影响

为了揭示安徽省主要气象灾害的现状和变化规律，保障粮食作物稳产高产。该文利用1986~2017年安徽省78个市、县的干旱、洪涝、风雹、低温冷冻害和雪灾等4类主要气象灾害的受灾、成灾率数据，采用气候倾向率、灰色关联度和R/S分析方法，分析了全省4类主要气象灾害的时空变化特征和未来发展趋势及其与粮食总产的关联度。结果表明：（1）全省4类气象灾害的受灾、成灾率均随年代呈下降趋势，近10年受灾、成灾率明显偏少；高值区多出现在淮北地区、皖南山区和大别山区，低值区大多出现在沿淮、江淮和沿江地区。（2）未来安徽省干旱受灾、成灾率将继续下降，洪涝将持续不明显的下降趋势，风雹、低温冷冻害和雪灾将由下降趋势转为平稳或略有上升的趋势。（3）4类气象灾害的受灾、成灾率与粮食总产量的关联度由高到低的排序均为: 洪涝、低温冷冻害和雪灾、干旱、风雹。由此说明洪涝是影响安徽省粮食生产最主要的气象灾害。

Trends of Four Major Meteorological Disasters and the Impacts on Grain Yield in Anhui Province

In order to reveal the present situation and change rule of major meteorological disasters in Anhui Province and guarantee the stable and high yield of grain crops, disaster affected rate and damaged rate data of four major disasters (drought; flood; wind and hail disaster; low-temperature freezing and snow disaster) in 78 cities/counties in Anhui Province from 1986 to 2017 were collected and analyzed. By using the methods of climate trend rate, grey correlation and R/S analysis, the spatial and temporal variations and future development trend of four major meteorological disasters in Anhui Province and their correlations with total grain yield were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) Disaster affected rate and damaged rate of the four major disasters all showed declining trends and were obviously lower in recent ten years. The high value areas of disaster affected rate and damaged rate mostly existed in Huaibei Area, Southern Anhui Mountain Area and Dabie Mountain Area, while the low value areas mostly existed in areas along Huaihe River, between Yangtze River and Huaihe River and along Yangtze River. (2) It was predicted that in the future, disaster affected rate and damaged rate of drought would decline continuously，and the flood would decline unnoticeably, while the wind and hail, low-temperature freezing and snow disasters would change from a downward trend to a steady or slightly upward trend. (3) Grey correlations between disaster affected /damaged rate of major disasters and total grain yield from high to low were as follows: flood, low-temperature freezing and snow disaster, drought, wind and hail. This indicates that flood is the main meteorological disaster affecting the grain yield in Anhui Province.