基于本地生态足迹模型的浙江省可持续发展评价

生态足迹法是一种评估区域可持续发展程度和人类对自然资源利用情况的工具。通过对一般生态足迹法的调整，运用本地生态足迹模型，对浙江省本地生态足迹的时空特性和环境生态的潜在危险性进行了分析和评价。结果表明：(1)2006年浙江省人均本地生态足迹 2.763 8 hm2，人均生态承载力 0.437 9 hm2，人均本地生态赤字 2.325 9 hm2；(2)1991～2006年浙江省的本地生态足迹都超过了生态承载力，社会经济发展表现出环境生态的不可持续性；(3)2005年浙江省11个城市的本地生态足迹和生态承载力表现出一定的差异；(4)浙江全省生态足迹强度指数从1991年的2078上升到2006年的5952，16年间生态强度指数增大了近3倍，单位可承载面积内的实际生态压力越来越大，环境生态的潜在危险性有扩大之势.

EVALUATION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF ZHEJIANG PROVINCE BASED ON LOCAL ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT MODEL

Ecological footprint analysis is one of the methods to evaluate extent of sustainable development of region and utilization of natural resources by human being.Based on adjusting of general ecological footprint analysis method,this paper used local ecological footprint model to analyze and evaluate the spatial temporal characteristics and potential risk of ecological environment of Zhejiang Province.The results are as follows：(1)The local ecological footprint of average per capita in Zhejiang Province is 2.7638 hm2.The ecological capacity of average per capita in Zhejiang Province is 〖JP2〗0.437 9 hm2.The ecological deficit of average per capita is 2.325 861 hm2.(2)From〖JP〗 1991 to 2006,the value of local ecological footprint of Zhejiang Province is greater than ecological capacity of the natural ecological system and the development of〖JP2〗 soc economic systems are unsus〖JP〗tainable in eco environment.(3)The local ecological footprints and ecological capacities of 11 cities in Zhejiang Province are deferent from each other in 2005.(4)The intensity index of ecological footprint of Zhejiang Province in 2006 increases from 2078 to 5952, 3 times of 1991.The intension index of ecological capacity of per unit area increases significantly in the past 16 years and the potential risk of ecological environment will be larger in the future.