1986~2015年中国东南沿海致灾气旋#br# 及其直接经济损失变化特征

将造成经济损失的热带气旋定义为致灾气旋。基于1986~2015年浙江、福建和广东省180个致灾气旋路径、灾情以及气象数据，研究致灾气旋发生的频次、经标准化处理的经济损失及风雨的时空变化特征。（1）1986~2015年东南沿海地区致灾气旋频数整体呈上升趋势。广东省致灾气旋发生频次最多，浙江省相对较小，但强度高于台风的致灾气旋发生频次增加显著。（2）浙江、福建和广东省致灾气旋造成的经济损失呈上升趋势，但占各省当年GDP的比重均有所减少，广东省比重下降最为显著；浙江省受致灾气旋经济影响最严重，损失较高的致灾气旋发生概率最大，福建省受致灾气旋影响相对较小。（3）降水量及风速是造成致灾气旋直接经济损失的重要因素，风速是影响广东省经济损失的主要因子，浙江省受降水量变化影响显著，而福建省受降水量及风速影响相对较小。浙江省东部和南部、福建省东北部以及广东省东部和西南部致灾气旋发生频次高，引起风速大、降水多，造成直接经济损失最严重。研究结果有利于深化对东南沿海地区热带气旋基本特征及损失的认识，为中国东南沿海热带气旋防灾减灾政策提供了参考。

Variation Characteristics of the Hazard-Inducing Tropical Cyclones and Their Direct Economic Loss in the Coastal Region of Southeastern China During 1986-2015

Hazard-inducing tropical cyclones are defined as those causing economic losses.Based on the direct economic losses,socioeconomic data,and track data of 180 hazard-inducing tropical cyclones that occurred in the provinces of Zhejiang,Fujian and Guangdong during 1986-2015,this study analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution of the frequency,direct economic losses,wind speed and precipitation of the hazard-inducing tropical cyclones in coastal region of southeastern China.1) The results reveal that the total frequency of the hazard inducing tropical cyclones in these three provinces have shown an increasing trend during 1986-2015.The highest frequency was found in Guangdong Province.Comparatively lower frequency was found in Zhejiang Province,while the frequency of those tropical cyclones with intensity higher than typhoon has shown a significant rising trend.2)The total direct economic losses caused by the hazard-inducing tropical cyclones in these three provinces have been increasing during 1986-2015.However,the percentages of the direct economic losses to regional GDP in these provinces have all been decreasing to different extents during 1986-2015,with that of Guangdong declining the most.Zhejiang province suffered the greatest direct economic loss,while the direct economic loss in Fujian province was relatively small.3) The direct economic losses of the hazard-inducing tropical cyclones are closely related to the wind speed and the rainfall.The influence of wind speed was significant in Guangdong,while the rainfall has significant impacts in Zhejiang.The eastern and southern Zhejiang,northeastern Fujian as well as the eastern and southwestern Guangdong have been affected frequently by the hazard-inducing tropical cyclones with high wind speed and precipitation,and thus suffered the most serious direct economic losses.This study provides references for the disaster prevention and mitigation policies of tropical cyclone in the coastal region of southeastern China.