基于ESDA-GWR的浙江县域生产性服务业时空特征及影响因素分析

全球产业结构“服务经济”形态转向宏观背景下，生产性服务业作为服务业重要构成正成为我国经济中低增速“新常态”下城市与区域重构竞合格局、提升位序-规模、参与新国际分工的重要“利器”。以浙江65个县域空间单元为研究对象，基于“定量测度-时空辨识-因素剖析”逻辑脉络，运用数理统计模型方法和GIS空间分析技术，揭示2003~2015年其演变特征、空间效应与影响机理，以期为浙江“县域经济”向“都市区经济”转型发展背景下统筹推进生产性服务业布局与发展实践提供科学依据。研究表明：生产性服务业时空格局表现为低水平均质空间向市辖区首位型城市特别是杭州、宁波等“多中心”的非均衡空间极化演进；其次，体系结构符合Zipf位序-规模分布规律，内部六大行业空间集聚呈现以信息服务业为龙头的“三大梯度”层级分异形态；再则，全局空间存在自相关性但溢出效应微弱且渗透不均衡；最后，其地理过程、格局实践表征被验证为是信息技术水平、人力资本丰裕度、市场发育成熟度等多重因子非线性共轭影响的结果。 关键词： 生产性服务业；探索性空间数据分析；地理加权回归；时空演变；浙江

Analysis on Time-space Characteristics and Influence factors of Producer Services Industry from the Perspective of ESDA-GWR in Zhejiang County

In the 21st century, with the economic globalization, the third industrial revolution, " four simultaneous", global industrial structure change to "service economy " form and so on, scientific and technological development, financial services, marketing and other productive services as an important component of the service sector producer services, which is becoming an important "weapon"of the regional and urban reconstruct competition pattern, ascend order-scale, and participate in the new international division of labor during economy in the low growth rate of " new normal state" in China. At the same time, the national " 13th Five-Year Plan" clearly put forward to speed up the promotion of high-quality and efficient development of services, to promote the production of services to the professional and high-end extension of the value chain. Based on the logic of"quantitative measurement-time-space identification-mechanism analysis", the mathematical statistics model and GIS spatial analysis technique were used to reveal the evolution characteristics, spatial effect and influencing factors of the 65 counties in Zhejiang Province. So as to provide scientific basis for the overall arrangement and development of producer service industry under the background of new urbanization. The results show that: The scale structure of the producer service system conforms to the order-scale distribution rule of Zipf, and internal six industry spatial agglomeration presents the information service industry as the leading "three gradient"different forms. The evolution of space-time pattern is characterized by low-level homogeneity space to the non-equilibrium spatial polarization of the first-class cities in the municipal districts, especially Hangzhou and Ningbo "double centers". Finally, the geographical process and pattern are characterized as the result of the nonlinear effect factors such as information technology level, human capital abundance and market development maturity.