基于Dyna-CLUE模型的太湖流域建设用地空间扩张模拟

从区域尺度模拟建设用地空间扩张是理解和解释区域土地利用变化过程与趋势的有效途径之一。基于Dyna-CLUE模型，通过1985年以来5个时段太湖流域遥感影像数据及自然与社会经济数据提取先验转换规则，模拟未来太湖流域在耕地保护、生态保护与综合保护3种不同情景模式下建设用地空间增长过程。结果显示：3种模拟情景下Kappa 系数均大于0.75，具有较高的一致性，表明Dyna-CLUE模型在太湖流域建设用地空间扩张模拟中有较强的适用性；3种情景下，综合保护情景下建设用地扩张模拟精度最高；2020与2030年流域建设用地扩张均以大城市周边为主导，其中2010～2020年扩张总量位居前列的城市依次为上海、嘉兴、无锡和湖州等，而2020～2030年依次为嘉兴、苏州、上海和无锡等。2020年、2030年建设用地空间扩张模拟结果基本符合太湖流域建设用地空间扩张的趋势。研究方法及模拟结果相对可靠，以期为未来太湖流域城市化进程中的土地利用规划实施，特别是土地利用宏观需求的空间配置提供一定的借鉴与参考

Simulation of the Construction Land Expansion Based on the Dyna-CLUE Model in Taihu Basin

It is one of the hot spots of the global land use /cover change research to simulate and predict regional land use changes quantitatively. While,simulation of the land use change from regional scale is one of effective ways to understand and explain process and trends of regional landuse changes. In recent years,various models have been used for land use change simulation,such as System dynamics model,Cellular automaton model, Agent-based,etc. Among them,the dyna-clue model can integrate the historical expansion trend of land use and the change of national land use policy,and conduct appropriate land use scale control to achieve a better simulation effect. This paper,based on the Dyna-CLUE model,extracted a priori rules through 5 periods remote sensing image of landuse and the natural and socio-economic data since 1985a in Taihu Basin,and simulated the growth process of land use under 3 different scenarios (cultivated land protection,ecological protection and comprehensive protection) in Taihu Basin. The results as follow: The Kappa coefficients are higher than 0. 75 under the three simulation scenarios and it have high accuracy,indicating that the Dyna-CLUE model has strongly applicability to simulate land use change in the Taihu Basin. The simulation precision of the construction land expansion is the highest under the comprehensive protection scenario in 3 scenarios. The expansion of the construction land is dominated by the surrounding cities both in 2020 a and 2030 a. Among them,the cities with the largest amount of expansion are Shanghai,Jiaxing,Wuxi and Huzhou during 2010 and 2020 a,however,it become Jiaxing,Suzhou,Shanghai and Wuxi during 2020 and 2030 a. The simulation results of spatial expansion of construction land in 2020 a and 2030 a basically conforms to the trend of spatial expansion of construction land in Taihu Basin. The research methods and simulation results are relatively reliable,and it can provide certain reference for the implementation of land use planning in the process of urbanization,especially the spatial allocation of land use macro demand in Taihu basin.