崇明岛中长期碳排放预测及其影响因素分析

为更好地推动崇明低碳生态岛的建设,在应用以自下而上的部门法为基础的区域范围温室气体排放评估核算方法,全面核算崇明岛能源消费及温室气体排放现状的基础上,应用LEAP模型,通过情景分析预测崇明岛中长期能源消费需求以及温室气体排放水平,并进一步应用对数平均指数法(LMDI)对影响崇明岛未来温室气体排放的主要因素进行了定量分析。研究表明:参考情景下,崇明岛能源消费总量从2010年的101万吨标煤增加到2050年的533万吨标煤,净碳足迹从2010年的238万吨CO2e增加到2050年的579万吨CO2e。崇明岛能源消费需求和碳排放增加的主要驱动因素是未来的经济发展、人口增长和生活水平的提高,但是通过一系列的优化,尤其是能源结构的变化和能耗强度的下降,减排情景下,崇明岛能源消费总量有可能在2039年左右达到峰值,并有望在2050年左右实现"零碳岛"的长期发展目标。结合定量分析的结论,进一步提出了实现崇明岛低碳发展中长期目标的可能性和重点发展领域。

PREDICTION OF CHONGMING ISLAND'S MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM CARBON EMISSIONS AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTOR ANALYSIS

In order to promoting the building of eco island and low carbon development for Chongming Island, the LEAP Model was used for the prediction of Chongming Island's medium and long term carbon emissions, on the basis of a complete assessment of Chongming Island's energy consumption and GHG emissions in recent years, with application of the bottom up sector based GHG inventory methodology. Besides, the LMDI method is applied for quantitative analysis of the contribution ratio of major driving factors influencing future carbon emissions in Chongming Island. The results showed that under baseline scenario, total energy consumption in Chongming island will grow from 101 million tce in 2010 to 533 million tce in 2050, and the growth rate of energy demand for business and service industry is most obvious, followed by household. The total net GHG emission, equals to the sum of emission from energy combustion, agricultural activities and waste disposal, minus carbon sink, also has an increasing trend, and it will grow from 238 million tCO2e to 539 million tCO2e in 2050, among which, the emission from energy combustion contributes most in total GHG emission, and carbon sink due to wetland and woodland can offset only 57% of the total GHG emissions in 2050, compared with 12.8% in 2010. However, with a series of optimized actions under mitigation scenario, including energy structure optimizing, industry structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement and carbon sink capacity enhancement, the total energy consumption will reach a peak around the year of 2039. The ratio of GHG emission from energy combustion will decrease significantly, while emission from agricultural activities will play the most important role in total GHG emissions. By 2050, the carbon sink will have the potential to offset the total GHG emissions. The analysis of the contribution ratio of influencing factors to GHG emission demonstrates that, compared with the level of 2010, economy development contribute more in the growth of GHG emission than population growth and the improvement in living standards, however, energy structure optimizing and energy efficiency improvement will have a great contribution for the realization of ‘zero carbon emission island’ long term target, with a contribution ratio of 49% and 23%, respectively. Finally, the medium and long term low carbon development target and priority areas are put forward.