基于可变模糊集理论及其模型的水利规划环境影响综合评价

地区水利规划环评处于起步阶段，存在评价形式化、方法单一化以及指标权重确定的主观性较强等问题。针对以往评价中的不足，提出了运用可变模糊集理论及其模型进行综合评价的方法。以江苏省水利发展规划作为研究实例，建立指标体系，采用模糊聚类循环迭代模型进行主客观综合指标权重的计算；从重点工程空间布局角度出发，运用调整后的可变模糊识别模型进行各市环境影响的相对优属度计算。结果表明，全省规划方案的环境影响相对优属度大于现状和零方案，南通市的相对优属度最大，其次是苏州和无锡。与层次分析法进行对比，该理论及其模型适用于地区水利规划环境影响综合评价

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF JIANGSU PROVINCE WATER PLANNING BASED ON VARIABLE FUZZY SETS AND MODELS

The environmental impact assessment of regional water planning is still in the initial stage nowadays.And problems still exist,such as the method applied is too single,the assessment could not be put into real practice and the weight of index factor is too subjective.Aiming at the shortcomings of evaluation in the past,in this article using variable fuzzy sets and its models for comprehensive evaluation was proposed.Taking the case of water development planning in Jiangsu Province as an example,an index system was established,and a calculation was made through fuzzy clustering iterative model with integration of both subjective and objective weights.From the perspective of spatial distribution of key projects,calculation has been made with the relative membership degree of environmental impact of every city by variable fuzzy recognition model.The results showed that the largest relative membership degree of environmental impact with the planning in Jiangsu is greater than present environment and BAU.Nantong city,with the largest relative membership degree,was followed by Suzhou and Wuxi.Compared with the AHP method,this theory and its models can overcome the limitation of subjectivity and arbitrariness,with scientific,effective,stability advantages for integrated assessment of environmental impact in the area of regional water planning.