Integrated simulation of land use,transportation and air quality: Policy tests for the San Francisco region

This paper describes a series of tests carried out with a comprehensive transportation, land use and air quality simulation system, which has been designed for planning application at the metropolitan or regional scale, within the framework of the U.S. Government's Clean Air legislation. The urban location portion of the system was developed at the University of Pennsylvania under the direction of S. H. Putman. The air quality sections incorporate models formulated in earlier studies. The system was tested with data from the San Francisco Bay area, for the period 1975–1980. The test policies included changes in regional transportation costs and population totals; local interventions in the transportation network; and controls on pollutant emissions from mobile and stationary sources. To assess net impacts, the outcomes predicted for each policy were compared with the outcomes predicted in a “benchmark”, or base run of the system. The tests showed that the system is sensitive to a broad range of air quality policies, and that it is capable of predicting important air quality consequences of transportation and land use policies. Some further development will be needed before the system can be used in practical planning situations, but there is little doubt as to the soundness of its central theoretical constructs and logical structure.