The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany,the UK and Ireland: a simulation study |
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| Authors: | Jacqueline M Hamilton Richard S J Tol |
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| Institution: | (1) Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hamburg, Germany;(2) Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland;(3) Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;(4) Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA |
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| Abstract: | We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this
to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists
from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first
reduce the number of international arrivals—as Western European international tourist demand falls—but later increase numbers—as
tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts
is similar to the international one: tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental
interior warms faster than the coast: tourism shifts south.
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| Keywords: | International tourism Domestic tourism Climate change Regional impacts |
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