Understanding deforestation in the southern Yucatán: insights from a sub-regional, multi-temporal analysis |
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Authors: | Ximena Rueda |
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Institution: | (1) Federacion Nacional de Cafeteros de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia |
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Abstract: | The southern Yucatán has been identified as a deforestation hot spot. Land-change studies document the extent of forest loss
at a regional scale, and case studies provide insights into the drivers of deforestation at the household level. Those studies
have paid minimal attention to sub-regional analysis, especially to discrete land-management units above the household level.
This analysis of upland forest change addresses the range of variation in deforestation among 96 ejidos (communal lands) and the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, the two dominant land-tenure and land-management units in the region.
Satellite imagery, census, and land-tenure data are used to establish the extent and location of deforestation patterns, and
multivariate techniques are employed to identify biophysical and socioeconomic variables that explain such patterns. Results
show that, for the 1984–1993 period, deforestation in the southern Yucatán was not as prevalent as implied by its hot spot
designation. Three clusters of deforestation are identified. A logistic regression analysis establishes that size of forest
holdings, population growth, and location in the precipitation gradient correlate with ejidos that experienced higher deforestation rates than the rest of the land-tenure units. For the 1993–2000 period, conservation
programs and changes in the economic context of this “hollow frontier” contributed to reduce deforestation rates and extent.
This analysis illustrates the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of much tropical forest change and caution that it should bring
to simple formulations of modeling this change and prescribing policies to control it. |
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