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| 基于FLUS模型的湖北省生态空间多情景模拟预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 王旭,马伯文,李丹,陈昆仑,姚华松. 基于FLUS模型的湖北省生态空间多情景模拟预测[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(1): 230-242. DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20200119 |
| 作者姓名： | 王旭 马伯文 李丹 陈昆仑 姚华松 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地质大学（武汉）地理与信息工程学院,武汉430074; 2. 广东财经大学地理与旅游学院,510320; 3. 中国地质大学（武汉）体育学院,武汉430074; 4. 广州大学广州发展研究院,广州510405 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41401076） |
| 摘 要： | 改革开放以来,中国经济在飞速发展的同时,生态环境问题日益严峻。为保障国家和地区的生态安全,对未来生态空间进行模拟预测十分必要。在长江大保护和长江经济带绿色发展背景下,以湖北省为研究区,利用FLUS模型基于湖北省2010年、2015年土地利用数据及包含自然和人文因素的15种驱动因子数据,对2035年的湖北省生态空间进行模拟预测。结果表明:利用2010年土地利用现状模拟出的2015年湖北省土地利用变化情况,总体精度达到0.976,Kappa系数达到0.961,模拟精度较高。设置的生产空间优先、生活空间优先、生态空间优先以及综合空间优化4种不同情景,基本满足未来湖北省不同发展导向的需求。从地貌单元角度来看,在不同情景下,湖北省生态空间主要分布于湖北省边陲四大山区,中部江汉平原生态空间零星分布。从数量规模上来看,不同情景下各个用地类型数量规模差异较为明显,生产空间优先情景下耕地面积增加1216 km2,生活空间优先情景下城镇用地规模增加5959 km2,生态空间优先情景下生态空间用地增长722 km2,综合空间优化情景下生态空间... |
| 关 键 词： | 生态空间 模拟预测 FLUS模型 湖北省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-06-30 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019-11-02 |
Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of ecological space in Hubei province based on FLUS model |
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| WANG Xu,MA Bo-wen,LI Dan,CHEN Kun-lun,YAO Hua-song. Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of ecological space in Hubei province based on FLUS model[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(1): 230-242. DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20200119 | |
| Authors: | WANG Xu MA Bo-wen LI Dan CHEN Kun-lun YAO Hua-song |
| Affiliation: | 1. School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; 2. Institute of Geography and Tourism, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China; 3. School of Physical Education, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; 4. Guangzhou Institute of Development, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510405, China |
| Abstract: | Since reform and opening up in 1978, with the rapid development of China's economy, the problem of ecological environment has become increasingly serious. In order to ensure the ecological security of the countries and regions, it is necessary to simulate and predict the future ecological space. Under the background of the Yangtze River protection strategy and the green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, this paper takes Hubei province as the research area. Based on the data of land use in 2010 and 2015 and the data of 15 driving factors including natural and human factors, the FLUS model was used to simulate and predict the ecological space of Hubei province in 2035. Based on the current situation of land use in 2010, the results show that the overall accuracy of land use change in Hubei in 2015 is 0.976, and the Kappa coefficient is 0.961, which are of high accuracy. The four scenarios of production space priority, living space priority, ecological space priority and comprehensive space optimization basically meet the needs of different development orientations in this province in the future. From the perspective of geomorphic unit, under different scenarios, the ecological space of Hubei is mainly distributed in the four major mountainous areas on the border of Hubei province, and the ecological space in the central Jianghan Plain is scattered. In terms of quantity scale, the difference in the size and scale of each land use type in different scenarios is more obvious. The area of cultivated land increased by 1216 km2 under the priority of production space, and the scale of urban land use increased by 5959 km2 under the priority of living space. The ecological space used in the ecological space priority scenario increased by 722 km2, while that used in the integrated space optimization scenario became moderate. From the distribution of ecological space change, the ecological space of the four mountainous areas has not changed much, but the ecological space of the central Jianghan Plain is more obvious. From the perspective of administrative divisions, the scope of change is mainly distributed in Wuhan City Circle, Xiangyang city, the central-west of Yichang city and the central part of Suizhou city. All in all, the FLUS model has good applicability to the ecological spatial simulation in Hubei. The results of multi-scenario simulation can provide a multi-angle and multi-directional policy decision reference for the future territorial spatial planning and ecological spatial control in this province. |
| Keywords: | ecological space simulation and prediction FLUS model Hubei province |
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