| 我国燃煤电厂PM2.5减排潜力预测与分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙现伟,邓双,朱云,束韫,王华生,张凡,李敏辉. 我国燃煤电厂PM2.5减排潜力预测与分析[J]. 环境科学研究, 2016, 29(5): 637-645 |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙现伟 邓双 朱云 束韫 王华生 张凡 李敏辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.华南理工大学环境与能源学院, 广东 广州 510006 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAC23B00)；国家环境保护公益性行业科研专项(201309072) |
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| 摘 要： | 为研究燃煤电厂在燃煤发电机组结构优化调整和不同末端控制措施条件下PM2.5的排放情况,以2012年为基准年,设计了分阶段、分地区不断优化的控制情景(基准、适中、加严和最严情景),并依据《大气细颗粒物一次源排放清单编制技术指南(试行)》建立的减排潜力模型对2017年、2020年和2030年我国燃煤电厂PM2.5减排潜力及空间分布进行预测分析. 结果表明:通过燃煤发电机组结构优化调整,2017年、2020年和2030年我国燃煤电厂PM2.5排放量与调整前相比可分别减少3.62×104、8.52×104和24.43×104 t,但相对于基准年而言,PM2.5排放量并未减少；进一步结合末端控制措施优化进行控制,PM2.5最大减排潜力(相对于基准年而言)可分别达到59.42×104±7.83×104、82.83×104±5.82×104和81.89×104±6.76×104 t,最高减排比例分别达到66.5%±8.8%、92.8%±6.5%和91.6%±7.6%. 我国各省(市/区)燃煤电厂PM2.5减排潜力与其煤耗量和采取的控制措施有关,燃煤量越大,控制措施越严格,则减排潜力越大. 京津冀、长三角和珠三角地区燃煤电厂在实现超低排放,即最严情景下2017年PM2.5减排潜力分别为5.93×104、12.04×104和4.70×104 t；2017年、2020年和2030年这3个区域PM2.5总减排潜力分别为22.68×104、22.36×104和22.07×104 t. 内蒙古、江苏、山东、广东、河北和山西等地在实施超低排放后,其PM2.5减排潜力均超过4×104 t,并且在全国范围内实施超低排放可显著降低我国燃煤电厂PM2.5排放量.
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| 关 键 词： | 燃煤电厂 PM2.5 情景分析 减排潜力 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-10-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016-02-17 |
PM2.5 Emissions Reduction Potential from Coal-Fired Power Plants in China |
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| SUN Xianwei,DENG Shuang,ZHU Yun,SHU Yun,WANG Huasheng,ZHANG Fan and LI Minhui. PM2.5 Emissions Reduction Potential from Coal-Fired Power Plants in China[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2016, 29(5): 637-645 |
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| Authors: | SUN Xianwei DENG Shuang ZHU Yun SHU Yun WANG Huasheng ZHANG Fan LI Minhui |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Environment and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 51006, China2.Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China |
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| Abstract: | Abstract: In order to study PM2.5 emissions from coal-fired power plants under the conditions of power generation structure adjustment and different terminal control measures, a predictive model for PM2.5 emissions reduction potential was established based on Guidelines for Source Emissions Inventory of Atmospheric Fine Particles (trial). In the model, we assumed two emission reduction countermeasures including power generation structure adjustment and optimization of end-of-pipe control measures. Four scenarios with strengthened control measures (i.e., benchmark, moderate regulation, strict regulation and ultra-strict regulation) were investigated with respect to different time periods and regions. With the model, emission reduction potentials and spatial distributions of PM2.5 from Chinese coal-fired power plants in 2017,0 and 2030 were predicted. The results showed that, compared with those without power generation structure adjustment, PM2.5 emission reductions with power generation structure adjustment in coal-fired power plants were 3.62×104,8.52×104 and 24.43×104 tons in 2017,0 and 2030, respectively. Nevertheless, PM2.5 emissions still increased compared with those in 2012. When combined with optimum end-of-pipe control measures for further PM2.5 emission reductions control, the largest reduction potentials in 2017,0 and 2030 were 59.42×104±7.83×104,2.83×104±5.82×104 and 81.89×104±6.76×104 tons, respectively, with the corresponding highest reduction rates of 66.5%±8.8%, 92.8%±6.5% and 91.6%±7.6%. Emission reduction potentials of the provinces had a close relationship with coal consumption from coal-fired power plants and control measures; the greater the amount of coal, with more strict control measures, the greater the potential of emission reduction. If ultra-low emissions technology were implemented, the emissions reduction potentials would be 5.93×104,2.04×104 and 4.70×104 tons, respectively, in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions. The total emissions reduction potential of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions would be 22.68×104,2.36×104 and 22.07×104 tons, respectively, in 2017,0 and 2030 after ultra-low emissions were implemented. Emissions reduction potentials of Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei and Shanxi provinces could also be more than 4×104 tons if ultra-low emissions were implemented. The results showed that nationwide implementation of ultra-low emissions could significantly reduce PM2.5 emissions from coal-fired power plants in China. |
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| Keywords: | coal-fired power plants PM2.5 scenario analysis emissions reduction potential |
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