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Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models |
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| Authors: | Steven R. Beissinger Jason G. Bragg David J. Coates J. Gerard B. Oostermeijer Paul Sunnucks Nathan H. Schumaker Meredith V. Trotter Andrew G. Young |
| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, and Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, Berkeley, CA, U.S.A.;2. Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia;3. Plant Science and Herbarium Program, Department of Parks and Wildlife, Bentley, WA, Australia;4. Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;5. School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, VIC, Australia;6. Western Ecology Division, Environmental Protection Agency, Corvallis, OR, U.S.A.;7. Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, U.S.A.;8. CSIRO Plant Industry, Canberra, ACT, Australia |
| Abstract: | We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco‐evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco‐evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco‐evo PVA using individual‐based models with individual‐level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype–phenotype mapping to model emergent population‐level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco‐evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence. |
| Keywords: | adaptation eco‐evolutionary dynamics extinction risk genomics inbreeding individual‐based model outbreeding population viability analysis PVA adaptació n aná lisis de viabilidad poblacional AVP diná micas eco‐evolutivas endogamia exogamia genó mica modelo con base en individuos riesgo de extinció n |