The relationship between population and the environment and its impact on sustainable development in Egypt using a multi-equation model

The relationship between population and the environment is a significant issue due to its impact on chances for achieving sustainable development, especially in developing countries. Previous studies on this relationship have primarily focused on the impact of population growth on the environment, while the impact of the environment on population has received less attention, where most of these studies have used single-equation models (SEM) in their analysis. In order to capture the interrelationship between population growth and the environment, and both its direct and indirect effects on the potential for achieving sustainable development, SEM may not be appropriate. This paper takes a step forward in providing such empirical evidence, by developing a multi-equation model based on the recursive equation system in order to empirically examine the relationship between population growth and the environment in terms of air pollution represented by increased CO₂ emissions, health level represented by the mortality and morbidity due to air pollution, and labour productivity represented by GDP per hour worked, and using a time series data set for Egypt during the period of 1950–2010. Quantitatively, the current study finds that (1) In Egypt, a 1% increase in population raises the CO₂ emissions by 2.4%. (2) An increase in CO₂ emissions by 1% is associated with an increase in deaths due to outdoor air pollution (respiratory and cardiovascular diseases) by 2.5%. (3) Poor health due to air pollution leads to a decrease in labour productivity by 1.58%. (4) The impact of population growth on chances for sustainable development depends on how much the rise in air pollution decreases labour productivity through raising the rate of morbidity. (5) Even when rapid population growth rate plays a minor role in creating a specific problem, such as its indirect negative impact on labour productivity and thus economic growth, population management policies may still constitute a viable measure for dealing with that problem, especially with respect to policy intervention cost. The study argues that population growth in Egypt negatively affects the state’s ability to achieve sustainable development via its negative impact on the environment. Environmental degradation in turn leads to adverse effects on population, particularly with regard to public health. These negative effects on health lead to lower labour productivity, and thus hinder the state’s ability to sustain development.     

经济、环境与人口健康的相互影响:基于我国省区面板数据的实证分析

经济增长造成环境变化;收入水平和环境质量共同影响着人口健康;人口健康状况又影响着经济增长.本文构建了一个描述兰者之间关系的联立方程模型,使用省区面板数据.分析了我国20世纪90年代至今省区层面上经济、环境与人口健康的相互影响.实证结果表明,工业污染是经济增长的阻碍因素;经济增长对人口健康有显著的正影响,而工业污染对人口健康有显著的负影响;人口健康对经济增长的贡献不显著;教育状况对经济增长有显著促进作用,但对人口健康没有显著的直接影响;第三产业的发展有利于减少工业污染,改善环境质量.因此,发展教育事业和第三产业,是促进经济增长和提高环境质量的有效举措.     

Long-term trend and spatial pattern of PM2.5 induced premature mortality in China

With rapid economic growth, China has witnessed increasingly frequent and severe haze and smog episodes over the past decade, posing serious health impacts to the Chinese population, especially those in densely populated city clusters. Quantification of the spatial and temporal variation of health impacts attributable to ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) has important implications for China's policies on air pollution control. In this study, we evaluated the spatial distribution of premature deaths in China between 2000 and 2010 attributable to ambient PM_2.5 in accord with the Global Burden of Disease based on a high resolution population density map of China, satellite retrieved PM_2.5 concentrations, and provincial health data. Our results suggest that China's anthropogenic ambient PM_2.5 led to 1,255,400 premature deaths in 2010, 42% higher than the level in 2000. Besides increased PM_2.5 concentration, rapid urbanization has attracted large population migration into the more developed eastern coastal urban areas, intensifying the overall health impact. In addition, our analysis implies that health burdens were exacerbated in some developing inner provinces with high population density (e.g. Henan, Anhui, Sichuan) because of the relocation of more polluting and resource-intensive industries into these regions. In order to avoid such national level environmental inequities, China's regulations on PM_2.5 should not be loosened in inner provinces. Furthermore policies should create incentive mechanisms that can promote transfer of advanced production and emissions control technologies from the coastal regions to the interior regions.     

Projecting ozone-related mortality in East China

BackgroundThe concentrations of ozone (O₃) in China are increasing, especially in East China, but its future trends and potential health impacts remain to be explored.ObjectivesThe objective was to assess future trends in O₃ concentrations and related premature death in East China between 2005 and 2030.MethodsFirst, a global chemical transport model (MIROC-ESM-CHEM) and regional chemical transport modelling system (including the Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model) were combined to estimate daily O₃ concentrations in 2005 and 2030 in East China under the “current legislation” (CLE) and “maximum technically feasible reduction” (MFR) scenarios which were applied globally. O₃ concentrations were then linked with population projections, mortality projections, and O₃-mortality associations to estimate changes in O₃-related mortality in East China.ResultsThe annual mean O₃ concentration was projected to increase in East China between 2005 and 2030 under the CLE scenario, while decrease under the MFR scenario. Under the CLE scenario, O₃-attributable health burden could increase by at least 40,000 premature deaths in East China, without considering the population growth. Under the MFR scenario, the health burden could decrease by up to 260,000 premature deaths as a result of the reduction in O₃ concentration with a static population. However, when the population growth was considered, O₃-attributable health burden could increase by up to 46,000 premature deaths in East China under the MFR scenario.ConclusionsThe results suggest that the health burden attributable to O₃ may increase in East China in 2030.     

Risk assessment at hazardous waste-contaminated sites with variability of population characteristics

Risk assessment is considered to be an effective scientific tool which enables decisionmakers to manage hazardous waste-contaminated sites in a cost-effective manner while preserving public health. However, the current risk assessment framework proposed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) has limitations in addressing the true variability of population characteristics. This study proposed a methodology that is different from the existing framework by accounting for the true variability of population characteristics. The key differences of the proposed methodology and the existing framework are the (1) use of the transient exposure concentration; (2) use of the entire population rather than a representative ideal individual; (3) use of age- and gender-based population subgroups to represent population characteristics; (4) use of a population growth model to represent growth dynamics; and (5) presentation of risk through a risk profile with risk summarized through a single indicator, potential cancer incidences (PCI). The proposed methodology was applied in a ground water contamination scenario due to benzene to determine its applicability. The results of the study showed that age-based variability of population characteristics is important in predicting the population risk while gender played a small role. The existing US EPA methodology and its variation using age-independent variability of population characteristics overestimate the risk given by PCI substantially, and therefore, the decisions can lead to costly cleanup goals. Population risk is not a single value but a distribution due to the contribution from ditferent individuals of the exposed population. Hence, the decision criterion proposed in this study, PCI, is found to be a useful indicator to describe population carcinogenic risk to the society under a variety of conditions and scenarios.     

Urbanisation Without Development: Environmental and Health Implications in African Cities

Sustainable development advocates for a balance between socio-economic development and the environment in the pursuit of human advancement. In Africa, high population growth and inadequate infrastructure in urban areas exert pressure on the environment and this threatens the health and wellbeing of urban residents. The population of the African continent until the 1960s was predominantly rural. This scenario has taken a swift turn and some of the major shifts in the global urbanisation process are taking place on the continent. Factors including natural increase in the population, rural–urban migration, strife and hunger leading to the internal displacement of populations have exacerbated the urbanisation process in Africa. The situation has been worsened by the imposition of Western development policies, including structural adjustment programmes on African nations, which has eroded the subsistence base of rural agricultural communities and further ignited rural urban migration. The failure of industry to absorb the increasing labour force has created massive unemployment and deepening poverty crisis in urban centres. Inadequate provision of infrastructure and services to meet the growth in urban populations has resulted in inefficient spatial development of urban centres, the proliferation of squatter settlements, inadequate basic amenities including potable water, sanitation and waste disposal. Poor environmental sanitation has resulted in the upsurge of infectious diseases and deteriorating urban health. Urban populations in Africa are also the worst affected by newly emerging diseases, particularly HIV/AIDS. The poor bear a disproportionately large share of the problems due to their particular vulnerability to environmental and health risks. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Population dynamics and changes in the population structure of a polymorphic colony of northern mole voles

Long-term (1985–1999) stationary observations on a polymorphic population of northern mole voles (Ellobius talpinus Pall.) in Kurgan oblast, Russia, using a mark-recapture method yielded original data on the population dynamics and population structure of a polymorphic colony consisting of animals of three color morphs (black, brown, and intermediate or transitional). The period when the northern mole vole population dynamics was studied (15 years) consisted of five distinct three-year population phases: depression, growth, peak (stabilization), decline to depression, and the next growth phase. It was shown that the population dynamics and changes in the population structure of northern mole voles in the Kurtamysh colony are cyclic.     

Relationship between air pollution and daily mortality in a subtropical city: Taipei, Taiwan

Air pollution has been associated with daily mortality in numerous studies over the past decade. However most of these studies were conducted in the United States and Europe with relatively few done in Asia. In the current study, the association between ambient air pollution and daily mortality in Taipei, Taiwan's largest city which has a subtropical climate was undertaken, for the period 1994-1998 using a case-crossover analysis. This design is an alternative to Poisson time series regression for studying the short-term adverse health effects of air pollution. The air pollutants examined included particulate matter (PM(10)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), ozone (O(3)), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), and carbon monoxide (CO). The largest observed effect, which was without statistical significance, was seen for NO(2) and CO levels on deaths due to respiratory diseases (ORs=1.013 and 1.014, respectively). The well established link between air pollution levels and daily mortality may not be as strong in cities in subtropical areas, although other factors such as differences in pollutant mix or the underlying health of the population may explain the lack of a strong association in this study. Further studies of this type in cities with varying climates and cultures are needed.     

The idea of sustainable development

In this lecture, I demonstrate how very different macroeconomic history begins to look if Nature is included as a capital asset in production activities. The tentative conclusions I draw from the evidence are: (1) high population growth in the world’s poorest regions (South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa) has been an obstacle to the achievement of sustainable economic development there; relatedly, (2) when population growth is taken into account, the accumulation of manufactured capital, knowledge, and human capital (health and education) has not compensated for the degradation of natural capital in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and, in all probability, even in the UK and the US; (3) China is possibly an exception to (1) and (2). This article is based on the Keynote Lecture delivered at the international symposium on “Sustainability in an Unequal World”, held in Tokyo on November 24, 2006. The exposition relies on my book, Economics: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2007. The author is the Frank Ramsey Professor of Economics at the University of Cambridge and a Fellow of St. John’s College, Cambridge.     

Industrialization, Environment and Health： the Impacts of Industrial SO2 Emission on Public Health in China

In this paper, we construct a model in which the impact of pollution on health is exerted through both direct and indirect channels. The indirect channel is captured by a production function in which the principal health-improving factor, income growth, can be realized only in the cost of pollution increase. This model is then tested by the aggregated chronicle disease data in over 78 Chinese counties. Our results show, after attaining the threshold of 8 μ g/m^2, continuous increase in industrial SO2 emission density will lead the ratio of population suffering chronicle diseases, among which respiratory diseases occupy a significant proportion, to rise. However, owing to technological progress in pollution control activities, the needed SO2 emission to produce one unit of GDP diminishes with time. Therefore, the negative effect from pollution augmentation on public health seems to be recompensed more and more by the positive effect of economic growth.     

基于系统动力学的中国土地利用系统健康评价研究

通过仿真模拟中国土地利用系统状况,探寻实现土地利用系统健康发展的情景模式,为中国在2035年基本实现社会主义现代化,及进一步实现可持续发展目标提供参考路径。研究采用系统动力学模型构建土地利用系统,共模拟得到18种情景方案。通过设定经济发展、粮食安全和生态安全目标对情景方案进行筛选,保留了6种情景。采用"压力-状态-响应"(PSR)模型构建土地利用系统健康评价体系,对6种情景进行评价。研究结果表明:第2种情景土地利用系统的健康水平最优且符合国情需要。最优政策情景具体表现为经济保持中速发展,到2035年GDP增长率稳落在4%,总量达到约200万亿;人口中速增长,2035年人口稳定在约14.85亿;土地整治力度大幅提升,土地整治投资金升至每年600～1 000亿元。     

Postnatal growth and development of the northern mole vole in natural populations in the northwestern part of its range

Long-term studies (1975–1999) and large amounts of field data (collections and observations on marked animals) have been used to analyze the growth and development of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall., 1770). Data are presented on the postnatal development and life spans of particular age groups of this species and on the dynamics of growth and life spans in the resident and migrant parts of the population. It is shown that the population is divided into slowly growing and rapidly growing groups, which is related to population dynamics. The timing of sexual maturation of the northern mole vole depending on the time of birth is clarified. It is shown that stable reproduction of this underground species is accounted for by the presence of seasonal generations.     

Long-term study of environmental levels of dioxins and furans in the vicinity of a municipal solid waste incinerator

From 1975 to 2004, a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) was operating in Montcada (Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain). Because of the potential health risks derived from emission of pollutants by the facility, especially polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs), a long-term monitoring program focused on measuring the environmental levels of PCDD/Fs near the facility, and to assess the health risks for the population living in the neighborhood, was established between 1996 and 2002. A total number of 111 soil and 121 herbage samples were analyzed for PCDD/Fs during this period. Human health risks for the individuals living near the MSWI (500 and 1,000 m) were also assessed before (1998) and after modernization (2000) of the facility. It included PCDD/F inhalation, dermal contact, soil and dust ingestion, and food intake. All these data are here summarized. The environmental levels of PCDD/Fs showed that the MSWI was not the main responsible of the atmospheric pollution by these compounds. In turn, human health risks for the population living in the vicinity of the facility after introduction of a modern technology were negligible in comparison with the dietary PCDD/F exposure.     

土地利用系统健康评价的框架与指标选择

随着社会经济的发展，人类行为对生态系统产生越来越大的影响，生态系统的健康状况也引起了国内外学者的普遍关注，作为一个以土地利用为基础的自然、经济、社会复合的土地利用系统。它既具有生态系统的一般特征。又具有其本身的特殊性，集中体现了人口增长、经济发展与资源短缺的矛盾。因此，为了人类可持续发展。必须关注土地利用系统的健康状态。本文在对土地利用系统的分析基础上，提出土地利用系统健康的概念，土地利用系统健康评价的本质、目的，并初步建立了土地利用系统健康评价框架体系。     

Policies for Livestock Development in the Ethiopian Highlands

Since 1991, there have been significant changes in utilization of feed resources in the Ethiopian highlands: while use of communal grazing lands and private pastures has declined, use of crop residues and purchased feed has increased. In addition, although use of animal health services and adoption of improved livestock breeds and modern management practices have increased, ownership of various types of livestock has declined. Rapid population growth has contributed most to the declining trends in grazing resources and ownership of livestock, showing the negative effects of increasing pressure on already degraded resources in the Ethiopian highlands. Land redistribution, increased participation in credit and extension programs targeting livestock, and improvement in access to markets, on the other hand, have had significant positive impacts on adoption of improved livestock technologies and ownership of livestock. Thus, reducing population growth and improving access to markets and credit and extension programs targeting livestock can enhance the role of livestock in improving food security and reducing poverty, especially in the mixed crop-livestock farming systems as exist in the East African highlands.     

Higher energy efficient homes are associated with increased risk of doctor diagnosed asthma in a UK subpopulation

IntroductionThe United Kingdom (UK) has one of the highest prevalence of asthma in the world, which represents a significant economic and societal burden. Reduced ventilation resulting from increased energy efficiency measures acts as a modifier for mould contamination and risk of allergic diseases. To our knowledge no previous study has combined detailed asset management property and health data together to assess the impact of household energy efficiency (using the UK Government's Standard Assessment Procedure) on asthma outcomes in an adult population residing in social housing.MethodsPostal questionnaires were sent to 3867 social housing properties to collect demographic, health and environmental information on all occupants. Detailed property data, residency periods, indices of multiple deprivation (IMD) and household energy efficiency ratings were also investigated. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios and confidence intervals while allowing for clustering of individuals coming from the same location.ResultsEighteen percent of our target social housing population were recruited into our study. Adults had a mean age of 59 (SD ± 17.3) years and there was a higher percentage of female (59%) and single occupancy (58%) respondents. Housing demographic characteristics were representative of the target homes. A unit increase in household Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) rating was associated with a 2% increased risk of current asthma, with the greatest risk in homes with SAP > 71. We assessed exposure to mould and found that the presence of a mouldy/musty odour was associated with a two-fold increased risk of asthma (OR 2.2 95%; CI 1.3–3.8). A unit increase in SAP led to a 4–5% reduction in the risk of visible mould growth and a mouldy/musty odour.DiscussionIn contrast to previous research, we report that residing in energy efficient homes may increase the risk of adult asthma. We report that mould contamination increased the risk of asthma, which is in agreement with existing knowledge. Exposure to mould contamination could not fully explain the association between increased energy efficiency and asthma. Our findings may be explained by increased energy efficiency combined with the provision of inadequate heating, ventilation, and increased concentrations of other biological, chemical and physical contaminants. This is likely to be modified by a complex interaction between occupant behaviours and changes to the built environment. Our findings may also be confounded by our response rate, demographic and behavioural differences between those residing in low versus high energy efficient homes, and use of self-reported exposures and outcomes.ConclusionEnergy efficiency may increase the risk of current adult asthma in a population residing in social housing. This association was not significantly modified by the presence of visible mould growth, although further research is needed to investigate the interaction between other demographic and housing characteristic risk factors, especially the impact of fuel poverty on indoor exposures and health outcomes.Study implicationsA multidisciplinary approach is required to assess the interaction between energy efficiency measures and fuel poverty behaviours on health outcomes prior to the delivery of physical interventions aimed at improving the built environment. Policy incentives are required to address fuel poverty issues alongside measures to achieve SAP ratings of 71 or greater, which must be delivered with the provision of adequate heating and ventilation strategies to minimise indoor dampness. Changes in the built environment without changes in behaviour of domicile residents may lead to negative health outcomes.     

Industrialization,Environment and Health: the Impacts of Industrial SO2 Emission on Public Health in China

Abstract

In this paper, we construct a model in which the impact of pollution on health is exerted through both direct and indirect channels. The indirect channel is captured by a production function in which the principal health-improving factor, income growth, can be realized only in the cost of pollution increase. This model is then tested by the aggregated chronicle disease data in over 78 Chinese counties. Our results show, after attaining the threshold of 8 μg/m², continuous increase in industrial SO₂ emission density will lead the ratio of population suffering chronicle diseases, among which respiratory diseases occupy a significant proportion, to rise. However, owing to technological progress in pollution control activities, the needed SO₂ emission to produce one unit of GDP diminishes with time. Therefore, the negative effect from pollution augmentation on public health seems to be recompensed more and more by the positive effect of economic growth.     

Species-specific effects of P-solubilizing and N<Subscript>2</Subscript>-fixing bacteria on seedling growth of three salt-tolerant trees

Coastal afforestation suffers from low survival and slow growth due to harsh conditions and lack of robust seedlings. Inoculation of P-solubilizing bacteria (PSB) or N₂-fixing bacteria (NFB) are effective in promoting plant growth and thus potentially helpful for coastal afforestation. However, it remains unclear about the generality and specificity of these plant-growth-promoting-bacteria (PGPB) on the growth of salttolerant trees. We inoculated seedlings of two mangrove trees and one terrestrial salt-tolerant tree with pure cultures of PSB or mixed cultures of PSB and NFB. Plant biomass, height, base diameter and N and P concentrations were determined six months after bacterial inoculation. We found that inoculation of PGPB had an overall promoting effect on the seedling growth of three tree species, but the effects differed greatly (3–280% increase) among plant species and bacterial isolates or bacterial combinations. Only in the terrestrial tree, co-inoculations of PSB and NFB showed greater promoting effects than monocultures of PSB. Root: shoot ratios of seedlings were not changed by bacterial inoculation. Inoculation treatments moderately elevated N concentrations in shoots and roots and P concentrations only in roots of seedlings. Our results suggest that PGPB might have a general promoting effect on the seedling growth of salt-tolerant trees. Nevertheless, the magnitude of promoting effects and the comparative advantage of dual inoculation over single inoculation are species-specific. The generality and specificity of the plant-PGPB relationship are similar to the plantmycorrhizal symbiosis. In addition, tissue nutrient improvement might not be the main mechanism of the promoting effects by PGPB.     

人口健康与社会可持续发展

人口健康是影响社会可持续发展的重要因素之一。近些年来 ,尽管我国人口健康水平有了明显的提高 ,但与社会可持续发展的要求仍然存在着较大的差距。本文从健康人口学的研究领域和对象出发 ,从回顾了中国人口健康方面主要的现状。同时 ,分析了人口健康与社会可持续发展的相互关系     

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs): A review on environmental contamination in China

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) which contain diverse organic groups, such as antibiotics, hormones, antimicrobial agents, synthetic musks, etc., have raised significant concerns in recently years for their persistent input and potential threat to ecological environment and human health. China is a large country with high production and consumption of PPCPs for its economic development and population growth in recent years. This may result in PPCP contamination in different environmental media of China. This review summarizes the current contamination status of different environment media, including sewage, surface water, sludge, sediments, soil, and wild animals, in China by PPCPs. The human body burden and adverse effects derived from PPCPs are also evaluated. Based on this review, it has been concluded that more contamination information of aquatic environment and wildlife as well as human body burden of PPCPs in different areas of China is urgent. Studies about their environmental behavior and control technologies need to be conducted, and acute and chronic toxicities of different PPCP groups should be investigated for assessing their potential ecological and health risks.