林火管理经济学的研究与探讨——单一可变防火要素的最佳投入

用经济学的观点分析了其它防火要素的投入量不变,仅改变某种可变防火要素的投入时,减灾效益Ｅ、边际减灾效益ＥＭ、平均减灾效益Ｅ／Ｆｉ与单一可变防火要素Ｆｉ的关系。提出了如何采用连际分析的方法确定单一防火要素的最佳投入问题。     

基于CES生产函数的企业安全投资决策方法研究

在分析当前我国安全投资决策研究基础上,讨论安全投资的边际效益理论,并利用其确定安全投资总量的合理值。利用不变替代弹性(CES)生产函数建立安全投入产出效益函数,反映安全投资结构对安全产出的影响,通过模型求解得到企业安全资源分配的优化结构和投资额。按边际效益理论和安全投资效益模型将有限的资源科学地配置到安全生产过程中去,有利于节约资本,实现安全效益最大化。     

基于分形理论与模拟退火算法的安全投资预测

在研究安全投资规律及影响因素的复杂性、不确定性的基础上,提出基于分形理论与模拟退火算法的安全投资预测新方法。该方法首先运用重标极差法分析了安全投资时间序列预测的可行性,然后利用模拟退火算法并结合对原始数据的一系列变换求解满足预测误差精度的平移量,得到安全投资时间序列的分形维数,最后根据分形统计模型可以预测出下一时间单位的安全投资。通过实例证明该方法的可行性和有效性,提高了决策过程的科学性,对企业制定未来安全投资总量具有借鉴作用。     

安全投资与安全效益的预测及关联分析

运用灰色预测模型,建立了安全投资与事故损失预测模型.运用灰色关联理论,建立了安全投资与安全效益灰色关联分析模型,并利用这2个模型对某石化公司的安全分项投资及事故直接经济损失情况进行了案例分析.初步确定该企业安全投资中各分项投资与事故损失的预测值.确定了该企业安全投资中各分项投资与效益的相关程度,找出了安全投资结构中与效益关联度最大的因素,并优先将其作为安全投资方向.     

施工企业安全投资、员工安全能力与安全绩效实证研究

以施工企业员工安全能力为中介变量,构建了安全投资与安全绩效的结构方程模型。采用探索性因子分析和结构方程分析的方法,对上述模型进行了实证分析,分析结果表明:员工安全能力(员工安全行为水平、安全意识等)对结果绩效(发生事故次数、伤亡人数、经济损失)和安全系统(系统安全制度、安全等级、安全纠纷次数)有显著的正相关关系,安全教育投资和事故防治投资对员工安全能力有显著的正相关关系,安全教育投资和安全管理投资对安全系统有显著的正相关关系,劳动保护投资对结果绩效有显著的正相关关系,而安全技术投资与安全绩效关系不显著。     

最优安全投资与效益的探讨

本文介绍了事故风险损失的分析和计算方法,提出了安全投资效益的概念。并用动态规划法对安全投资方案进行优化,以有限的投资取得较好的安全工作效果.     

边际成本准则与安全项目的成本效益分析

任何生产系统都存在一定的危险，在设计降低危险的安全项目时，以边际成本准则为出发点，考虑资源的最佳分配问题，详细阐述了边成本准则，及其在作成本效益分析时的具体应用。     

边际成本准则与安全项目的成本效益分析

任何生产系统都存在一定的危险。在设计降低危险的安全项目时，以边际成本准则为出发点，考虑资源的最佳分配问题。详细阐述了边际成本准则，及其在作成本效益分析时的具体应用。     

我国环保投资失真问题分析与对策建议

<正>引言通过对"十五"期间我国环保投资进行结构与投资的分析显示,环保投资口径偏大、投资方向与需求不匹配、投资结构失调,对我国环境投资的效益影响很大。假如城市环境基础设施设置建设的投资口径改变,代之于污水处理投资以及垃圾处理投资,那环保投资就会出现缩水严重的现象。随着城市环境基础设     

安全投资经济分析与效益评价

安全投资分析的目的是实现必要的安全功能,减少损失,保障企业的生产安全,以便集中投资,获取最大的安全效益。笔者给出了安全效益的新定义,以安全价值和边际效益分析为基础,结合企业安全生产实际,采用FTA法,分析安全所具有的功能与所耗成本的关系。揭示安全投入在生产经营活动中的作用,发现和消除不必要的安全投入,提高安全资金的利用率,以便优选安全措施方案和确定安全投资的方向,选择最优经济投入方案。运用数学方法,分析在多种生产要素限制条件下,安全投资对社会和其他方面影响的最优化问题。采用技术经济方法,评价净现值、内部收益率和投资回收期各指标是否符合设定值,确保安全投资项目的可行性,以利于人们对安全投入的认识,强化企业安全投入工作。     

Development of an indirect-cost calculation model suitable for workplace use

Introduction: Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) stakeholders rarely factor the cost of workplace accidents into prevention spending decisions. The lack of consideration of this key information is related to the fact that the scientific literature has failed to provide OHS stakeholders with a cost-calculation tool that is both sufficiently accurate and does not require a data-collection stage ill-suited to the time constraints of workplace decision-makers. Method: This study reviews the recent literature to identify key elements that should foster the use of indirect-cost calculation methods by decision makers. Results: A “local” approach currently appears to be the best method for calculating indirect costs of workplace incidents or accidents in comparison to “bottom-up” or “top-down” approach. This paper discusses four criteria that this type of approach must satisfy to be compatible with the time constraints and accuracy demands of OHS stakeholders in organizations. In addition, four bases for the development of a new indirect cost estimation model are presented and discussed. Impact on industry: this study provides bases and criteria to help the development of indirect-cost calculation models better suited to workplace use than those currently available.     

A process mapping model for calculating indirect costs of workplace accidents

This article follows an earlier one in which four criteria and four bases for the development of an indirect-cost calculation model adapted to the accuracy requirements and time constraints of workplace decision-makers were established. A two-level model for calculating indirect costs using process mapping of the organizational response to a workplace accident is presented. The model is based on data collected in interviews with those employees in charge of occupational health and safety in 10 companies of various sizes in different industry sectors. This model is the first to use process mapping to establish the indirect costs of workplace accidents. The approach allows easy identification of the duration and frequency of actions taken by stakeholders when a workplace accident occurs, facilitates the collection of the information needed to calculate indirect costs and yields a usable, precise result. A simple graphic representation of an organization's accident processes helps the user understand each accident's cost components, allowing the identification and reduction of inefficiencies in the overall process. Impact on Industry: By facilitating data collection and shortening the time needed to assess indirect costs of workplace accidents, this indirect cost calculation tool is better suited for workplace use than those currently available.     

Safety and Cost-Effectiveness of Clearzones in Rockcuts

Clearzones are a feature of modern highways that have a dramatic impact on roadside safety. The purpose of these unobstructed spaces is to provide an area where an errant vehicle can safely stop or the driver can regain control of the vehicle without striking a hazardous object like a tree or utility pole. Many clearzone alternatives (e.g., removing trees, installing traversable culvert openings, and installing guardrails in front of untraversable hazards) are relatively inexpensive in comparison to other roadway construction costs. Roadways passing through rockcuts present an unusual case where the construction cost of providing the clearzone is very high. This article examines different clearzone alternatives in rockcuts and compares the likely effect on safety and construction costs. A method is described for determining the rockcut width that best balances the cost of construction with the improvements in safety that would result from a wider clearzone in the rockcut.     

事故经济损失分类及评估方法研究综述*

为系统了解事故的经济损失分类、评估方法以及发展方向,通过文献综述的方法,回顾事故经济损失的研究起源,总结主要的分类方法,归纳评估方法的主要特点,分析评估难点并展望未来可能的研究方向。研究结果表明:事故经济损失统计项目难以全部列出,须在其构成价值与评估所需努力之间相权衡;在事后全面准确评估经济损失仍是未来的研究重点,其有益于统计标准的制修订,而事前评估则是1个新兴的方向;很难选择合适的直间比来评估间接经济损失,未来需开发1种简单灵活的评估方法。研究结果可为未来事故经济损失分类和评估的研究应用提供理论和数据支撑。     

An Analysis of Young Driver Crash Types and the Associated Lifetime Care Cost in Victoria,Australia

Objective: The elevated crash involvement rate of young drivers is well documented. Given the higher crash risk of young drivers and the need for innovative policy and programs, it remains important to fully understand the type of crashes young drivers are involved in, and knowledge of the lifetime care cost of crashes can support effective policy development. The aim of this article is to document the number and type of young driver crashes, as well as the associated lifetime care cost over a 9-year period (2005–2013) in Victoria, Australia.

Methods: In Victoria, Australia, the Transport Accident Commission (TAC) has legislated responsibility for road safety and the care of persons injured in road crashes, irrespective of fault. TAC claims data for the period 2005–2013 were used to document the number and type of young driver crashes. Lifetime care costs (past and future payment liabilities) were calculated by Taylor Fry actuarial consultancy. License and population data were used to define the crash involvement rate of young drivers.

Results: Over the 9-year period, 16,817 claims were lodged to the TAC by drivers 18–25 years of age following a crash. There were 646 fewer drivers aged 18–25 killed and injured in 2013, compared to 2005, representing an unadjusted change of ?28.7% (?29.8% males; ?28.4% females). The total lifetime care cost of young drivers killed and injured in Victoria for the period 2005–2013 was estimated to be AU$634 million (US$493 million). Differences between males and females, single- and multivehicle crashes, and fatalities and injuries were found to be statistically significant. Run-off-road crashes and crashes from opposing direction were overrepresented in the lifetime care costs for young driver claimants. Twenty-eight injured drivers were classified as high-severity claims. These 28 claimants require additional long-term care, which was estimated to be AU$219 million; of these 28, 24 were male (85.7%). The long-term care costs for these 28 drivers (0.16%) accounts for 34.5% of the total lifetime care cost of all 18- to 25-year-old injured drivers.

Conclusions: By using no-fault lifetime care costs that account for medical and like expenses, rehabilitation, and social reintegration costs, a more accurate understanding of the cost of young driver crashes can be determined. Application of these costs to specific crash types highlights new priorities and opportunities for developing programs to reduce young driver crashes.     

An analysis of injury claims from low-seam coal mines

Introduction

The restricted workspace present in low-seam coal mines forces workers to adopt awkward working postures (kneeling and stooping), which place high physical demands on the knee and lower back.

Method

This article provides an analysis of injury claims for eight mining companies operating low-seam coal mines during calendar years 1996-2008. All cost data were normalized using data on the cost of medical care (MPI) as provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Results

Results of the analysis indicate that the knee was the body part that led in terms of claim cost ($4.2 million), followed by injuries to the lower back ($2.7 million). While the average cost per injury for these body parts was $13,100 and $14,400, respectively (close to the average cost of an injury overall), the high frequency of these injuries resulted in their pre-eminence in terms of cost. Analysis of data from individual mining companies suggest that knee and lower back injuries were a consistent problem across companies, as these injuries were each among the top five most costly part of body for seven out of eight companies studied.

Application/Impact

Results of this investigation suggest that efforts to reduce the frequency of knee and low back injuries in low-seam mines have the potential to create substantial cost savings.     

核电站主变压器包络线水喷雾系统设计探讨

针对目前扑救核电站主变压器立体火灾的水喷雾系统涉及的两个普通问题,即水喷雾覆盖存在干表面和着火变压可能爆炸,提出包络线法水喷雾灭火技术思想,并以某核电站变压器为例,介绍设计原理和步骤。     

植物油脂自燃性能与碘值定量关系的研究

对四种同脂发热自燃性进行了试验研究,采用回归分析方法,建立了环境温度与油脂发热诱导期之间的定量关系式,即ｌｇＴ／ａ／ｔ＋ｂ,提出油脂自燃性能可用ａ和ｂ两参数描述。研究表明,碘值与油脂自燃性能常数ａ和ｂ存在密切关系,可分别用对数和直线方程表示。     

3S集成技术在林火管理中的应用研究

卫星遥感技术用于对过火区进行识别和对森林火灾进行判读和监测；林火地理信息系统是一种包含空间资料管理的地理信息系统，它具有储存，处理，投影转换和取回与显示图形资料的能力。     

环境成本核算研究综述

在全面总结国内外环境成本核算研究进展的基础上,对有关环境成本核算研究的内容和核算方法做了概述,并指出和分析了目前环境成本核算研究中存在的主要问题.