An improved algorithm for locating a gas source using inverse methods

We apply an inverse problem approach to locating a known gas source in a desert setting from simultaneous measurements of gas concentration and wind data. We use a random search algorithm with simulated annealing to generate candidate distributions of source strengths and positions. These distributions are then assessed by means of a cost function, which quantifies the degree to which the postulated source distribution accounts for the measured gas concentrations. We present results from using three cost functions with differing regularisation terms. We assess the robustness of these and the differing regularisation terms by the progressive addition of random noise and systematic offsets to the concentration data. We show that for our application, the best reconstructions are obtained by using a multiplicative regularisation parameter defined to minimise the total gas emissions.     

Energy Choices and Public Policy

The subject of energy choices and public policy is one that has interested me at a professional level. The outlook for energy supply for Americans is uncertain. Will the OPEC crank the per barrel price of world oil up again this fall by three or four dollars? We don’t know. Will the cost of finding and developing new domestic oil reserves continue to rise, and will the domestic production continue to fall as it has been doing since 1970? We don’t know. Would regulating the price of old oil and natural gas entering into interstate commerce bring forth significantly increased supplies? We don’t know. The chances for reducing oil consumption—or at least checking the rate of increase—are equally uncertain. Will still higher prices, brought on by whatever means, cause people and industries to use less oil? We don’t know. Will demand shift away from oil and natural gas to cheaper, more plentiful energy sources? We don’t know. Will penalties, taxes, or exhortations get the motor vehicle industry to produce more gasoline efficient cars and trucks? We don’t know. We may not even get a chance to try. Will new, less energy intensive lifestyles take over? We don’t know.     

Operationalising a social–ecological system perspective on the Arctic Ocean

We propose a framework to support management that builds on a social–ecological system perspective on the Arctic Ocean. We illustrate the framework’s application for two policy-relevant scenarios of climate-driven change, picturing a shift in zooplankton composition and alternatively a crab invasion. We analyse archetypical system dynamics between the socio-economic, the natural, and the governance systems in these scenarios. Our holistic approach can help managers identify looming problems arising from complex system interactions and prioritise among problems and solutions, even when available data are limited.     

Ensemble-based data assimilation and targeted observation of a chemical tracer in a sea breeze model

We study the use of ensemble-based Kalman filtering of chemical observations for constraining forecast uncertainties and for selecting targeted observations. Using a coupled model of two-dimensional sea breeze dynamics and chemical tracer transport, we perform three numerical experiments. First, we investigate the chemical tracer forecast uncertainties associated with meteorological initial condition and forcing error. We find that the ensemble variance and error builds during the transition between land and sea breeze phases of the circulation. Second, we investigate the effects on the forecast variance and error of assimilating tracer concentration observations extracted from a truth simulation for a network of surface locations. We find that assimilation reduces the variance and error in both the observed variable (chemical tracer concentrations) and unobserved meteorological variables (vorticity and buoyancy). Finally, we investigate the potential value to the forecast of targeted observations. We calculate an observation impact factor that maximizes the total decrease in model uncertainty summed over all state variables. We find that locations of optimal targeted observations remain similar before and after assimilation of regular network observations.     

High overlap between traditional ecological knowledge and forest conservation found in the Bolivian Amazon

It has been suggested that traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) may play a key role in forest conservation. However, empirical studies assessing to what extent TEK is associated with forest conservation compared with other variables are rare. Furthermore, to our knowledge, the spatial overlap of TEK and forest conservation has not been evaluated at fine scales. In this paper, we address both issues through a case study with Tsimane’ Amerindians in the Bolivian Amazon. We sampled 624 households across 59 villages to estimate TEK and used remote sensing data to assess forest conservation. We ran statistical and spatial analyses to evaluate whether TEK was associated and spatially overlapped with forest conservation at the village level. We find that Tsimane’ TEK is significantly and positively associated with forest conservation although acculturation variables bear stronger and negative associations with forest conservation. We also find a very significant spatial overlap between levels of Tsimane’ TEK and forest conservation. We discuss the potential reasons underpinning our results, which provide insights that may be useful for informing policies in the realms of development, conservation, and climate. We posit that the protection of indigenous cultural systems is vital and urgent to create more effective policies in such realms.     

Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills

We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009–2012 and 2050–2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC’s A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in “typical” outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure.     

Solar energy for electricity and fuels

Solar energy conversion into electricity by photovoltaic modules is now a mature technology. We discuss the need for materials and device developments using conventional silicon and other materials, pointing to the need to use scalable materials and to reduce the energy payback time. Storage of solar energy can be achieved using the energy of light to produce a fuel. We discuss how this can be achieved in a direct process mimicking the photosynthetic processes, using synthetic organic, inorganic, or hybrid materials for light collection and catalysis. We also briefly discuss challenges and needs for large-scale implementation of direct solar fuel technologies.     

Structural Diversity: A Multi-dimensional Approach to Assess Recreational Services in Urban Parks

Urban green spaces provide important recreational services for urban residents. In general, when park visitors enjoy “the green,” they are in actuality appreciating a mix of biotic, abiotic, and man-made park infrastructure elements and qualities. We argue that these three dimensions of structural diversity have an influence on how people use and value urban parks. We present a straightforward approach for assessing urban parks that combines multi-dimensional landscape mapping and questionnaire surveys. We discuss the method as well the results from its application to differently sized parks in Berlin and Salzburg.     

The Role of Ethnobotanical Skills and Agricultural Labor in Forest Clearance: Evidence from the Bolivian Amazon

Research on the benefits of local ecological knowledge for conservation lacks empirical data on the pathways through which local knowledge might affect natural resources management. We test whether ethnobotanical skills, a proxy for local ecological knowledge, are associated to the clearance of forest through their interaction with agricultural labor. We collected information from men in a society of gatherers–horticulturalist, the Tsimane’ (Bolivia). Data included a baseline survey, a survey of ethnobotanical skills (n = 190 men), and two surveys on agricultural labor inputs (n = 466 plots). We find a direct effect of ethnobotanical skills in lowering the extent of forest cleared in fallow but not in old-growth forest. We also find that the interaction between ethnobotanical skills and labor invested in shifting cultivation has opposite effects depending on whether the clearing is done in old-growth or fallow forest. We explain the finding in the context of Tsimane’ increasing integration to the market economy.     

Gaseous carbon dioxide and methane, as well as dissolved organic carbon losses from a small temperate wetland under a changing climate

Temperate forests can contain large numbers of wetlands located in areas of low relief and poor drainage. These wetlands can make a large contribution to the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) load of streams and rivers draining the forests, as well as the exchange of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) with the atmosphere. We studied the carbon budget of a small wetland, located in Kejimkujik National Park, Nova Scotia, Canada. The study wetland was the Pine Marten Brook site, a poor fen draining a mixed hardwood-softwood forest. We studied the loss of DOC from the wetland via the outlet stream from 1990 to 1999 and related this to climatic and hydrologic variables. We added the DOC export information to information from a previously published model describing CH4 and CO2 fluxes from the wetland as a function of precipitation and temperature, and generated a new synthesis of the major C losses from the wetland. We show that current annual C losses from this wetland amount to 0.6% of its total C mass. We then predicted that under climate changes caused by a doubling of atmospheric CO2 expected between 2040 and 2050, total C loss from the wetland will almost double to 1.1% of total biomass. This may convert this wetland from what we assume is currently a passive C storage area to an active source of greenhouse gases.     

Analysis of field observations of tracer transport in a fractured till

We analyze a set of observations from a recently published, field-scale tracer test in a fractured till. These observations demonstrate a dominant, underlying non-Fickian behavior, which cannot be quantified using traditional modeling approaches. We use a continuous time random walk (CTRW) approach which thoroughly accounts for the measurements, and which is based on a physical picture of contaminant motion that is consistent with the geometric and hydraulic characterization of the fractured formation. We also incorporate convolution techniques in the CTRW theory, to consider transport between different regions containing distinct heterogeneity patterns. These results enhance the possibility that limitations in predicting non-Fickian modes of contaminant migration can be overcome.     

Coral reef aerosol emissions in response to irradiance stress in the Great Barrier Reef,Australia

We investigate the correlation between stress-related compounds produced by corals of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and local atmospheric properties—an issue that goes to the core of the coral ecosystem’s ability to survive climate change. We relate the variability in a satellite decadal time series of fine-mode aerosol optical depth (AOD) to a coral stress metric, formulated as a function of irradiance, water clarity, and tide, at Heron Island in the southern GBR. We found that AOD was correlated with the coral stress metric, and the correlation increased at low wind speeds, when horizontal advection of air masses was low and the production of non-biogenic aerosols was minimal. We posit that coral reefs may be able to protect themselves from irradiance stress during calm weather by affecting the optical properties of the atmosphere and local incident solar radiation.     

Influence of trophic status on PCB distribution in lake sediments and biota

We investigated the relationship between trophic status and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) distribution in 19 Swedish lakes. We analyzed PCB in water, phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish and sediment during two sampling periods, in spring and summer. The mass of sigma PCB in the lake sediments was positively related to lake trophy, i.e. more PCBs were accumulated and buried in the sediment of eutrophic lakes than in oligotrophic lakes. In the oligotrophic lakes a greater fraction of the total PCB load was dissolved in water. We conclude that this is a result of higher sedimentation rates in eutrophic lakes and relatively lower turnover of organic carbon in the water column of the shallow, eutrophic lakes. In the stratified lakes, the amount of PCB per cubic meter in the epilimnion decreased from spring to summer. We suggest that sedimentation of plankton beneath the thermocline during stratification act as a sink process of PCBs from the epilimnion.     

Plasma vitellogenin in male teleost fish from 43 rivers worldwide is correlated with upstream human population size

It has been previously demonstrated that vitellogenin (VTG) - a precursor egg yolk protein - is produced in male fish exposed to estrogenic compounds in wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent. However, little attention has been given to examine whether any patterns of male VTG production exists across fish species on a global scale. We hypothesized that a composite measure of human population size over river discharge would best explain variations of protein levels in male fish. We compiled VTG data in 13 fish species from 43 rivers receiving municipal WWTP effluent on 3 continents. We found that human population size explained 28% of the variation in male VTG concentrations, whereas population/flow rate failed to significantly correlate with VTG. We suggest this result may be explained by the low solubility of estrogenic compounds, resulting in localized contamination near WWTP outfalls, rather than dilution by river water.     

Requisite Simplicities to Help Negotiate Complex Problems

Decision makers responsible for natural resource management often complain that science delivers fragmented information that is not useful at the scale of implementation. We offer a way of negotiating complex problems by putting forward a requisite simplicity. A requisite simplicity attempts to discard some detail, while retaining conceptual clarity and scientific rigor, and helps us move to a new position where we can benefit from new knowledge. We illustrate the above using three case studies: elephant densities and vegetation change in a national park, the use of rules of thumb to support decision making in agriculture, and the management of salt in irrigation. We identify potential requisite simplicities that can allow us to generate new understanding, lead to action and provide opportunities for structured learning.     

Pore-scale modeling of dispersion in disordered porous media

We employ a direct pore-level model of incompressible flow that uses the modified moving particle semi-implicit (MMPS) method. The model is capable of simulating both unsteady- and steady-state flow directly in microtomography images of naturally-occurring porous media. We further develop this model to simulate solute transport in disordered porous media. The governing equations of flow and transport at the pore level, i.e., Navier-Stokes and convection-diffusion, are solved directly in the pore space mapped by microtomography techniques. Three naturally-occurring sandstones are studied in this work. We verify the accuracy of the model by comparing the computed longitudinal dispersion coefficients against the experimental data for a wide range of Peclet numbers, i.e., 5×10(-2)相似文献   

An interpretation of Taylor's statistical analysis of particle dispersion

We interpret Taylor's equation for plume growth in homogeneous turbulence in terms that have ready intuitive and physical appeal. We show how an understanding of the physical meaning of the Lagrangian time-scale allows a simple derivation of the linear and square root growth laws, which form the basis of most plume spread parametenzations. We then go on to show how this understanding can be used to derive the commonly used expressions for the effects of wind shear on plume spread.     

Risk-based approach to appraise valve closure in the clam Corbicula fluminea in response to waterborne metals

We developed a risk-based approach to assess how the valve closure behavior of Asiatic clam Corbicula fluminea responds to waterborne copper (Cu) and cadmium (Cd). We reanalyzed the valve closure response data from published literature to reconstruct the response time-dependent dose-response profiles based on an empirical three-parameter Hill equation model. We integrated probabilistic exposure profiles of measured environmental Cu and Cd concentrations in the western coastal areas of Taiwan with the reconstructed dose-response relationships at different integration times of response to quantitatively estimate the valve response risk. The risk assessment results implicate exposure to waterborne Cu and Cd may pose no significant risk to clam valve activity in the short-time response periods (e.g., <30 min), yet a relative high risk for valve closure response to waterborne Cu at response times greater than 120 min is alarming. We successfully linked reconstructed dose-response profiles and EC50-time relationships associated with the fitted daily valve opening/closing rhythm characterized by a three-parameter lognormal function to predict the time-varying bivalve closure rhythm response to waterborne metals. We parameterized the proposed predictive model that should encourage a risk-management framework for discussion of future design of biological monitoring systems.     

Response of the Mediterranean sponge Chondrosia reniformis Nardo to copper pollution

We examined the effects of exposure to copper pollution on the Atlanto-Mediterranean sponge Chondrosia reniformis. We transplanted sponges from an unpolluted control area to a harbour with a moderately high concentration of copper and measured several biological sponge variables. No effect of this habitat was detected on sponge growth, shape, heat-shock protein expression or metal accumulation. However, a decrease in the clearance rate, an increase in the collagen/cell rate (due to a decrease in the cellular components) and a lower survival rate after 4 months of the sponges transplanted to the harbour was observed. We suggest that copper may alter the sponge physiology, by reducing pumping capacity, which may ultimately lead to sponge death. Consequently, copper pollution exerts strong negative effects on this organism.     

From food to pest: Conversion factors determine switches between ecosystem services and disservices

Ecosystem research focuses on goods and services, thereby ascribing beneficial values to the ecosystems. Depending on the context, however, outputs from ecosystems can be both positive and negative. We examined how provisioning services of wild animals and plants can switch between being services and disservices. We studied agricultural communities in Laos to illustrate when and why these switches take place. Government restrictions on land use combined with economic and cultural changes have created perceptions of rodents and plants as problem species in some communities. In other communities that are maintaining shifting cultivation practices, the very same taxa were perceived as beneficial. We propose conversion factors that in a given context can determine where an individual taxon is located along a spectrum from ecosystem service to disservice, when, and for whom. We argue that the omission of disservices in ecosystem service accounts may lead governments to direct investments at inappropriate targets.