Consequences of correlations between habitat modifications and negative impact of climate change for regional species survival

While several empirical and theoretical studies have clearly shown the negative effects of climate or landscape changes on population and species survival only few of them addressed combined and correlated consequences of these key environmental drivers. This also includes positive landscape changes such as active habitat management and restoration to buffer the negative effects of deteriorating climatic conditions. In this study, we apply a conceptual spatial modelling approach based on functional types to explore the effects of both positive and negative correlations between changes in habitat and climate conditions on the survival of spatially structured populations. We test the effect of different climate and landscape change scenarios on four different functional types that represent a broad spectrum of species characterised by their landscape level carrying capacity, the local population turnover rates at the patch level (K-strategies vs. r-strategies) and dispersal characterstics. As expected, simulation results show that correlated landscape and climatic changes can accelerate (in case of habitat loss or degradation) or slow down (in case of habitat gain or improvement) regional species extinction. However, the strength of the combined changes depends on local turnover at the patch level, the overall landscape capacity of the species, and its specific dispersal characteristics. Under all scenarios of correlated changes in habitat and climate conditions we found the highest sensitivity for functional types representing species with a low landscape capacity but a high population growth rate and a strong density regulation causing a high turnover at the local patch level.The relative importance of habitat loss or habitat degradation, in combination with climate deterioration, differed among the functional types. However, an increase in regional capacity revealed a similar response pattern: For all types, habitat improvement led to higher survival times than habitat gain, i.e. the establishment of new habitat patches. This suggests that improving local habitat quality at a regional scale is a more promising conservation strategy under climate change than implementing new habitat patches. This conceptual modelling study provides a general framework to better understand and support the management of populations prone to complex environmental changes.     

Climate change and local level disaster risk reduction planning: need, opportunities and challenges

The field of climate change is full of uncertainties that are limiting strategic disaster risk reduction planning. In this paper, however, we argued that there is lot to do before we get our hands on reliable estimates of future climate change impacts. It includes bringing together different stakeholders in a framework suggested in this paper, developing case studies that reflect long-term local impacts of climate change, capacity building of local stakeholders that enables them to take decisions under uncertainty etc. We proposed a simple scheme that brings together climate, disaster and policy community together to start a dialogue in a run-up to understanding wider aspects of long-term risk reduction at local level. Strategic thinking, which has only been restricted to national and regional planning to date, needs to be inculcated in local level disaster risk reduction and policy personnel as well. There is a need to move from the attitude of considering local level players as ‘implementers’ to ‘innovators’ for which developing a network of self learning and evolving organizations are required at the local level.     

Climate Science and Climate Policy: Improving the Science/Policy Interface

The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.     

Understanding barriers to decision making in the UK energy-food-water nexus: The added value of interdisciplinary approaches

The nexus represents a multi-dimensional means of scientific enquiry which seeks to describe the complex and non-linear interactions between water, energy, food, with the climate, and further understand wider implications for society. These resources are fundamental for human life but are negatively affected by shocks such as climate change and characterize some of the main challenges for global sustainable development. Given the multidimensional and complex nature of the nexus, a transdisciplinary approach to knowledge development through co-production is needed to timely and effectively inform the decision making processes to build societal resilience to these shocks going beyond the sectorality of current research practice. The paper presents findings from five themed workshops (shocks and hazards, infrastructure, local economy, governance and governments, finance and insurance) with 80 stakeholders from academia, government and industry in the UK to explore the impact of climate and weather shocks across the energy-food-water nexus and barriers to related responses. The research identified key stakeholders’ concerns, opportunities and barriers to better inform decision making centred on four themes: communication and collaboration, decision making processes, social and cultural dimensions, and the nature of responses to nexus shocks. We discuss implications of these barriers and how addressing these can better facilitate constructive dialogue and more efficient decision-making in response to nexus shocks.     

Landscape visualisation and climate change: the potential for influencing perceptions and behaviour

The urgent need to mitigate and adapt to climate change is becoming more widely understood in scientific and policy circles, but public awareness lags behind. The potential of visual communication to accelerate social learning and motivate implementation of the substantial policy, technological, and life-style changes needed, has begun to be recognised. In particular, realistic landscape visualisations may offer special advantages in rapidly advancing peoples’ awareness of climate change and possibly affecting behaviour and policy, by bringing certain possible consequences of climate change home to people in a compelling manner. However, few such applications are yet in use, the theoretical basis for the effectiveness of visualisations in this role has not been clearly established, and there are ethical concerns elicited by adopting a persuasive approach which deliberately engages the emotions with visual imagery. These questions and policy implications are discussed in the context of a theoretical framework on the effects of landscape visualisation on a spectrum of responses to climate change information, drawing in part on evidence from other applications of landscape visualisation. The author concludes that the persuasive use of visualisations, together with other approaches, may be effective, is justified, and could be vital in helping communicate climate change effectively, given ethical standards based on disclosure, drama, and defensibility.     

塔克拉玛干沙漠北部全新世环境演变（Ⅰ）

通过对塔克拉玛干沙漠北部，塔里木河泛滥平原典型剖面的沉积物粒度特征、化学元素的变化和沉积相特征的研究，并结合~（１４）Ｃ测年，揭示了本区域全新世以来的环境变化规律，本区全新世以来的多风、高温、干燥的气候形成是以全球气候波动为背景，叠加内陆干旱封闭盆地影响而成的。但在干燥气候条件下曾有过几次空气湿度较大的偏湿期。本区沉积相主要以河流冲积作用形成的粘土层和风力作用下形成的风砂层为主，剖面中的亚粘土与现代河流相特征一致，剖面中风砂土与现代流沙性质趋同。全新世以来本区共发生３次明显的河流泛滥期，可以同全新世以来的间冰期对应。     

Climate Modelling,Uncertainty and Responses to Predictions of Change

Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by,inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (or, better, adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. The urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions ofglobal climatic change and the need for information onlocal to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. Moreover, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. Unfortunately, climate models cannot yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes.     

塔克拉玛干沙漠北部全新世环境演变(Ⅰ)

通过对塔克拉玛干沙漠北部，塔里木河泛滥平原典型剖面的沉积物粒度特征、化学元素的变化和沉积相特征的研究，并结合＾１４Ｃ测年、揭示了本区域全新世以来的环境变化规律，本区全世以来的多风、高温、干燥的气候形成是以全球气体波为背景，叠加内陆干旱封闭贫地影响而成的，但在干燥气条件下曾有过几次空气湿度较大的偏湿期，本区沉积相主要以充冲积作用形成的粘土层和风力作用下的风砂层为主，剖面中的亚粘土与现代河流相特征一致     

Perceptions of the effectiveness of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in advancing national action on climate change

This paper aims to characterise the ways in which the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is trickling down to affect national level action on climate change. State and non-state actors were interviewed at the 8th UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP8) during October and November 2002. The interviews revealed that, among interviewees, climate change was already perceived to be, or was becoming a priority issue. In a number of countries substantial legislation is already in place to facilitate climate change preparedness (both adaptation and mitigation), although respondents suggest that in the majority of cases these changes are not being developed in response to the UNFCCC, but to other drivers. While all respondents saw change occurring at the national level, mostly through planning and research, few saw climate change response actions at the local level. Respondents agreed that climate risks must be managed through various mechanisms, from finding ways to participate in the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms to managing the impacts of foreign direct investments. The majority of respondents focussed on in-country actions such as identifying the most vulnerable groups, but few identified the need for greater global cooperation.To conclude, the Convention plays a role in shaping the discourse of climate change and in generating national level responses. These responses are played out differently according to the geographic, environmental, economic, social and cultural conditions of each country. The Convention is clearly important, but perhaps it is not adequate to inspire national action to resolve the problems of climate change. There is scope for many additional initiatives, through collaboration, trade or aid, and through bilateral agreements.     

Assessing local climate vulnerability and winegrowers’ adaptive processes in the context of climate change

Adaptation to climate change is a major challenge facing the viticulture sector. Temporally, adaptation strategies and policies have to address potential impacts in both the short- and long term, whereas spatially, place-based and context-specific adaptations are essential. To help inform decision-making on climate change adaptation, this study adopted a bottom-up approach to assess local climate vulnerability and winegrowers’ adaptive processes in two regulated wine-producing areas in the Anjou-Saumur wine growing sub-region, France. The data used for this study were collected through individual semi-structured interviews with 30 winegrowers. With a focus on wine quality, climate-related exposure, and sensitivity were dependent on many contextual factors (e.g., northern geographical position, wine regulatory frameworks, local environmental features) interacting with the regional oceanic climate. Climate and other non-climate-related variables brought about important changes in winegrowers’ management practices, varying in time and space. This ongoing process in decision-making enhanced winegrowers’ adaptive responses, which were primarily reactive (e.g., harvesting, winemaking) or anticipatory (e.g., canopy and soil management) to short-term climate conditions. Winegrowers described changing trends in climate- and grapevine (Vitis) -related variables, with the latter attributed to regional climate changes and evolving management practices. Regarding future climate trends, winegrowers’ displayed great uncertainty, placing the most urgent adaptation priority on short-term strategies, while changing grapevine varieties and using irrigation were identified as last resort strategies. The study concluded by discussing the implications of these findings in the context of climate change adaptation in viticulture.     

冰藻在北冰洋生态系统中的重要性及其对全球变暖的响应

在全球变暖的背景下,北极正在经历剧烈的环境变化,如海冰消融、海水淡化、海平面上升、海流变化以及紫外线辐射增强等。北极是对全球气候变化最敏感的地区之一,其特殊的地理位置和极地放大效应使北冰洋生态系统极为脆弱。冰藻作为初级生产者,是北冰洋生态系统的重要组成成分,在全球生物地球化学循环和能量流动过程中发挥着重要的作用,对环境变化的响应十分敏感,是一种良好的环境指示生物,研究其对全球变暖的响应具有重要意义。本文从冰藻对北冰洋的生物量、生产力、沉积有机碳的埋藏以及渔业资源等方面的作用,分析了冰藻对北冰洋生态系统的重要性,结合冰藻的群落结构、时空分布等方面的变化,论述了冰藻对全球变暖的响应。     

Beyond the black box: Forest sector vulnerability assessments and adaptation to climate change in North America

In the wake of the failures to date of well-publicized multilateral and multi-sectoral mitigation efforts to control greenhouse gases, attention is now increasingly focused on the effectiveness and capacity of national and sub-national level sectoral plans, including forestry, to usher in a new era of adaptation efforts. In Canada, the government of British Columbia spent several years developing its Future Forest Ecosystems Initiative as part of a larger climate change response strategy in the forest sector. Similarly, in the United States, wildfire related events have led to climate change inspired efforts by individual states (e.g., Alaska, California) and the US Forest Service has recently undertaken plans to incorporate climate change considerations in national forest planning beginning with the National Road Map for Responding to Climate Change. This paper highlights a number of shortcomings with both these national and sub-national strategies with respect to the relationships existing between governance, forestry and climate change. It proposes incorporating considerations of governance mechanisms directly into forest sector planning and the need to assess not only natural system level changes but also the extent to which new problems can be dealt with by ‘old’ or ‘new’ governance arrangements.     

Is body size of the water frog Rana esculenta complex responding to climate change?

Recent studies on climate responses in ectothermic (cold-blooded) vertebrates have been few in number and focussed on phenology rather than morphology. According to Bergmann’s rule, endothermic (warm-blooded) vertebrates from cooler climates tend to be larger than congeners from warmer regions. Although amphibians are ectothermic vertebrates, weather and climatic conditions may also impact on their morphology, and thereby affect their survival rates and population dynamics. In this paper, we show, in a unique long-term study during the period 1963–2003 in an agricultural landscape in western Poland, that the body length of two water frog parental species (males of both Rana ridibunda and R. lessonae) increased significantly. However, their hybridogenetic hybrid R. esculenta did not show similar changes. A significant relationship with a large-scale climatic factor, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index, was found positive for R. ridibunda males and R. lessonae females, and negative for R. esculenta females. Our findings, the first for amphibians, are consistent with other studies reporting that recent climate change has affected the morphology of animals. However, we also show that changes in amphibian phenotype linked to climate may vary independently between (even very similar) species.     

Sustainable mobility: from technological innovation to societal learning

This paper addresses a persistent and worsening societal dilemma worldwide: the ecological unsustainability of the automobile as the primary means for providing personal mobility. The solution to this problem will require input from all segments of society, and must include technological innovation, changes in the physical infrastructure and land use, and social, cultural, and institutional changes. A fundamental rethinking of the entire system of personal mobility is necessary. Governments can play a significant role in promoting change: by stimulating technological innovation through regulations, incentives and subsidies, by investing in the infrastructure, by providing leadership, and by organizing and supporting a debate with a focus on the system as a whole: its spatial characteristics, the motives for transport, and the alternatives that are presently not developed. From the technological perspective, one of the much-discussed solutions is a hydrogen-powered automobile. We argue that the future of this approach is questionable, and propose a fundamental re-framing of the significance of hydrogen: from viewing it as a solution to the personal mobility problem to seeing it as a medium for transporting and storing energy that has been generated elsewhere (preferably by renewable resources). A new and radically different way of seeing the problem of individual mobility, and of the roles of various stakeholders in finding solutions, is also necessary. This is the essence of higher order learning. To facilitate such learning among various societal groups, we advocate a combination of multi-stakeholder visioning processes, scenario building, backcasting exercises, and small-scale socio-technical experiments. These approaches may be practiced at various levels, from local to national, with experimentation probably being best suited for a smaller scale. An ongoing process of visioning future mobility in the Boston Metropolitan area illustrates how such approaches may be used.     

Climate change scenarios to facilitate stakeholder engagement in agricultural adaptation

To prepare agricultural systems for climate change, scientists need to be able to effectively engage with land managers and policy makers to explore potential solutions. An ongoing challenge in engagement is to distil the complexity of climate-change-management-change interactions in agro-ecological systems to identify responses that are most important for adaptation planning. This paper presents an approach for selecting climate change scenarios to provide a focal point for engaging with stakeholders to evaluate adaptation options and communicate assessment outcomes. We illustrate how scenarios selected with the approach can be used by evaluating climate change impacts and an adaptation option for livestock industries in the north-east Australian rangelands. Climate change impacts on forage production, animal liveweight gain and soil loss are found to track projected climate changes in four pasture communities; increasing by up to 50% and declining by up to 110% in response to doubled atmospheric carbon-dioxide (CO₂), 4°C warming, and +20% to ?40% changes in mean annual rainfall. The effectiveness of reducing grazing pressure as an adaptation option shows a similar response; resulting in higher forage production (up to 40%), animal liveweight gains (up to 59%) and gross margins (up to 40%), and reduced soil erosion (down by 91%) per hectare relative to the baseline management. The results show that a few key scenarios may be selected to represent the range of global climate model (GCM) projections for use in assessing and communicating impacts and adaptation; simplifying the assessments and allowing limits to the effectiveness of adaptation options to be explored. The approach provides a framework for capturing and communicating trends in climate change impacts and the utility of options, which are required for successful engagement of stakeholders in finding viable adaption responses.     

Indicators of urban climate resilience: A contextual approach

As urban populations grow and climate exposure increases, more cities are introducing formal planning processes to adapt to climate change. This paper explains the process applied to eight cities in the Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN) for developing indicators for planning and monitoring local climate resilience. This process relied on transferring a common conceptual framework for climate resilience, together with a locally led iterative and collaborative process that engaged technical and planning authorities and vulnerable groups. The process varied slightly between cities and generated indicators that were chosen for their contextual fit and availability of data. The main benefit of developing resilience indicators in this way was the local capacity that the process built, in terms of understanding resilience, shared understanding of concepts and measurement and establishment of a common platform for future planning and monitoring of climate adaptation interventions at the city level.     

Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy

Climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions made by governments are usually taken in different policy domains. At the individual level however, adaptation and mitigation activities are undertaken together as part of the management of risk and resources. We propose that a useful starting point to develop a national climate policy is to understand what societal response might mean in practice. First we frame the set of responses at the national policy level as a trade off between investment in the development and diffusion of new technology, and investment in encouraging and enabling society to change its behaviour and or adopt the new technology. We argue that these are the pertinent trade-offs, rather than those usually posited between climate change mitigation and adaptation. The preference for a policy response that focuses more on technological innovation rather than one that focuses on changing social behaviour will be influenced by the capacity of different societies to change their greenhouse gas emissions; by perceived vulnerability to climate impacts; and by capacity to modify social behaviour and physical environment. Starting with this complete vision of response options should enable policy makers to re-evaluate the risk environment and the set of response options available to them. From here, policy makers should consider who is responsible for making climate response decisions and when actions should be taken. Institutional arrangements dictate social and political acceptability of different policies, they structure worldviews, and they determine the provision of resources for investment in technological innovation and social change. The importance of focussing on the timing of the response is emphasised to maximise the potential for adjustments through social learning and institutional change at different policy scales. We argue that the ability to respond to climate change is both enabled and constrained by social and technological conditions. The ability of society to respond to climate change and the need for technological change for both decarbonisation and for dealing with surprise in general, are central to concepts of sustainable development.     

CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS IN NORTHERN CANADA: INTEGRATING INDIGENOUS PERSPECTIVES WITH GOVERNMENT POLICY

A study of the relationship between natural hazards and climate change in the international context provides the background for a discussion of the expected changes. In the context of this global discussion, this paper reviews the current perspectives of those natural hazards that are likely to be influenced by climate change, using northern Canada as a regional case study. The northern implications of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are examined, including the status of climate change action by the northern territorial governments, the evolving role of indigenous people, and the responsibility for climate change impacts. The difficulties surrounding natural hazards research in remote locations, and the approaches of indigenous people to natural hazards are then presented. The paper concludes with a suggested policy approach for climate change and natural hazards in northern Canada, underscoring the need for more comprehensive adaptive strategies to complement the current tendency to focus on the mitigation of greenhouse gases produced in this region.     

Perceptions of urban climate hazards and their effects on adaptation agendas

Decision-makers in cities around the world are beginning to take steps to adapt to the current and future risks presented by climate change, the sum of which we refer to as a city’s adaptation agenda. However, there is significant variation in such agendas: some may focus on responding to one or two climate hazards, while others develop agendas to respond to a wide range of hazards. What causes this varying range of urban adaptation agendas? The purpose of this study is to assess how geographic, socioeconomic, and institutional features of cities as well as the perception of climate change hazards affect the scope of adaptation agendas. Utilizing regression analyses of a newly constructed database for 58 cities around the world, our findings suggest that the perception of climate change hazards held by decision-makers is a primary determinant of the scope of urban adaptation agendas. Given that each global city faces place-specific hazards from varying extreme climate events, this research provides global-scale adaptation strategies for local, national, and international institutions, suggesting that enhancing awareness as well as mapping urban climate hazards is an initial step for broadening and mainstreaming adaptation agendas.     

A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach to adaptation to regional climate change: a case study of Okutama-machi,Tokyo, Japan

Recently, local governments have an increasing need to take extensive and effective local measures to adapt to regional climate change, but have difficulty knowing how and when to adapt to such change. This study aims: 1) to characterize an efficient and cost-effective database management tool (DMT) for developing a Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach to using observed and projected data, for decision-making by non-expert government authorities, and 2) to document how DMT can be used to provide specialized yet understandable climate change information to assist local decision-makers in clarifying regional priorities within a wide array of adaptation options. The DMT combines climate change mapping, statistical GIS, and a vulnerability assessment. Okutama-machi, a 225.63 km² sparsely populated mountainous region (2012 population 5,856) northwest of Tokyo, Japan, was chosen for this pilot study. In this paper, the most recent regional climate projections (5 km resolution) are transcribed into an understandable form for use by non-expert citizens who use the GIS-based DMT. Results illustrate qualitative agreement in projection of summer daily mean temperatures; the mean temperature increase at Okutama-machi is the greatest of any area in Tokyo. In comparing near future and future conditions, August monthly mean temperature will increase more than 0.7–0.9 °C and 2.8–2.9 °C, and monthly precipitation by 50 % and 25–41 %, respectively. However, the root mean square (RMS) errors and bias of percentage change for monthly precipitation in summertime are 26.8 % and 4.3 %, respectively. These data provide an early warning and have implications for local climate policy response.