Incorporating GIS and MCE for Suitability Assessment Modelling of Coral Reef Resources

Assessment, planning and management for coral reef ecosystems are particularly challenging tasks, especially in developing countries. In this study, a methodological approach which integrates Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multicriteria Evaluation (MCE) for the development of suitability assessment models for a variety of uses of coral reef resources is discussed. Such an approach is sustained by an extensive use of local expert knowledge coded in the form of automated decision trees (DTs). The usefulness of the approach and the models developed is demonstrated by their application to the participatory assessment and resources planning at “Alacranes Reef National Park” (ARNP), Yucatán, México. Overlaying of resulting suitability maps was also applied for identifying potential conflicting areas.     

Development of a New Approach to Cumulative Effects Assessment: A Northern River Ecosystem Example

If sustainable development of Canadian waters is to be achieved, a realistic and manageable framework is required for assessing cumulative effects. The objective of this paper is to describe an approach for aquatic cumulative effects assessment that was developed under the Northern Rivers Ecosystem Initiative. The approach is based on a review of existing monitoring practices in Canada and the presence of existing thresholds for aquatic ecosystem health assessments. It suggests that a sustainable framework is possible for cumulative effects assessment of Canadian waters that would result in integration of national indicators of aquatic health, integration of national initiatives (e.g., water quality index, environmental effects monitoring), and provide an avenue where long-term monitoring programs could be integrated with baseline and follow-up monitoring conducted under the environmental assessment process.     

Uncertainty Assessment of Voc Emissions from Paint in the Netherlands Using the Nusap System

We demonstrate an innovative approach to uncertainty assessment known as the NUSAP system, to assess qualitative and quantitative uncertainty for the case of emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from paint in The Netherlands. Using expert elicitation, we identified key sources of error, critical assumptions, and bias in the monitoring process. We assessed pedigree and probabilistic uncertainty of all input quantities. We used four pedigree criteria to assess the strength of the knowledge base: proxy representation, empirical basis, methodological rigour and degree of validation. Using Monte Carlo analysis, we assessed sensitivity and propagation of uncertainty. Results for sensitivity and pedigree were combined in a NUSAP Diagnostic Diagram, which effectively highlighted the assumption for VOC percentage of imported paint as the weakest spot in the monitoring of VOC emissions. We conclude that NUSAP facilitates systematic scrutinization of method and underlying assumptions and structures creative thinking on sources of error and bias. It provides a means to prioritise uncertainties and focus research efforts on the potentially most problematic parameters and assumptions, at the same time identifying specific weaknesses in the knowledge base. With NUSAP, nuances of meaning about quantities can be conveyed concisely and clearly, to a degree that is not possible with statistic methods only.     

A Regional Survey of the Microbiological Water Quality along the Shoreline of the Southern California Bight

A regional survey of the microbiological water quality along the shoreline of the Southern California Bight (SCB), from Point Conception south to Ensenada, Mexico, was conducted during August, 1998, by 36 agencies under the coordination of the Southern California Coastal Water Research Project (SCCWRP). Microbiological water quality was assessed by calculating the percentage of shoreline-mile-days that exceeded bacterial indicator thresholds for total and fecal coliforms, total/fecal ratios, and enterococci. Sample sites were selected using a stratified random sampling approach, with the SCB recreational shoreline divided into six strata: high- and low-use sandy beaches, high- and low-use rocky shoreline, and perennial and ephemeral freshwater outlets. Samples were collected on a weekly basis at a total of 253 sites, beginning on August 2^nd, 1998 and continuing for five weeks. Samples were analyzed by 22 participating labs using their normal methods (multiple tube fermentation, membrane filtration, Colilert® and/or Enterolert®). All labs met testing criteria established through intercalibration exercises and quality control check samples distributed during the sampling period. Nearly 95% of the shoreline-mile days did not exceed daily and monthly bacterial indicator thresholds, demonstrating good bacteriological water quality along the SCB shoreline. Freshwater outlets, comprised mainly of storm drains, had the poorest water quality with 60% and 40% of the shoreline-miles exceeding monthly and daily thresholds, respectively. Freshwater outlets were also more likely to demonstrate exceedances by multiple indicators at a single site, and repeat exceedances at sites over the five-week period. Compared with the southern California beaches, Mexican beaches had nearly 5 times the number of exceedances for total and fecal coliforms, and nearly 8 times the number of exceedances for total/fecal ratios.