Using individual‐condition measures to predict the long‐term importance of habitat extent for population persistence

Habitat loss and fragmentation are causing widespread population declines, but identifying how and when to intervene remains challenging. Predicting where extirpations are likely to occur and implementing management actions before losses result may be more cost‐effective than trying to reestablish lost populations. Early indicators of pressure on populations could be used to make such predictions. Previous work conducted in 2009 and 2010 identified that the presence of Eastern Yellow Robins (Eopsaltria australis) in 42 sites in a fragmented region of eastern Australia was unrelated to woodland extent within 500 m of a site, but the robins’ heterophil:lymphocyte (H:L) ratios (an indicator of chronic stress) were elevated at sites with low levels of surrounding woodland. We resurveyed these 42 sites in 2013 and 2014 for robin presence to determine whether the H:L ratios obtained in 2009 and 2010 predicted the locations of extirpations and whether the previous pattern in H:L ratios was an early sign that woodland extent would become an important predictor of occupancy. We also surveyed for robins at 43 additional sites to determine whether current occupancy could be better predicted by landscape context at a larger scale, relevant to dispersal movements. At the original 42 sites, H:L ratios and extirpations were not related, although only 4 extirpations were observed. Woodland extent within 500 m had become a strong predictor of occupancy. Taken together, these results provide mixed evidence as to whether patterns of individual condition can reveal habitat relationships that become evident as local shifts in occupancy occur but that are not revealed by a single snapshot of species distribution. Across all 85 sites, woodland extent at scales relevant to dispersal (5 km) was not related to occurrence. We recommend that conservation actions focus on regenerating areas of habitat large enough to support robin territories rather than increasing connectivity within the landscape.     

Conservation Goals and the Relative Importance of Costs and Benefits in Reserve Selection

Abstract: Including both economic costs and biological benefits of sites in systematic reserve selection greatly increases cost‐efficiency. Nevertheless, limited funding generally forces conservation planners to choose which data to focus the most resources on; therefore, the relative importance of different types of data must be carefully assessed. We investigated the relative importance of including information about costs and benefits for 3 different commonly used conservation goals: 2 in which biological benefits were measured per site (species number and conservation value scores) and 1 in which benefits were measured on the basis of site complementarity (total species number in the reserve network). For each goal, we used site‐selection models with data on benefits only, costs only, and benefits and costs together, and we compared the efficiency of each model. Costs were more important to include than benefits for the goals in which benefits were measured per site. By contrast, for the complementarity‐based goal, benefits were more important to include. To understand this pattern, we compared the variability in benefits and in costs for each goal. By comparing the best and the worst possible selection of sites with regard to costs alone and benefits alone for each conservation goal, we introduced a simple and consistent variability measure that is applicable to all kinds of reserve‐selection situations. In our study, benefit variability depended strongly on how the conservation goal was formulated and was largest for the complementarity‐based conservation goal. We argue that from a cost‐efficiency point of view, most resources should be spent on collecting the most variable type of data for the conservation goal at hand.     

Roads,Interrupted Dispersal,and Genetic Diversity in Timber Rattlesnakes

Abstract: Anthropogenic habitat modification often creates barriers to animal movement, transforming formerly contiguous habitat into a patchwork of habitat islands with low connectivity. Roadways are a feature of most landscapes that can act as barriers or filters to migration among local populations. Even small and recently constructed roads can have a significant impact on population genetic structure of some species, but not others. We developed a research approach that combines fine‐scale molecular genetics with behavioral and ecological data to understand the impacts of roads on population structure and connectivity. We used microsatellite markers to characterize genetic variation within and among populations of timber rattlesnakes (Crotalus horridus) occupying communal hibernacula (dens) in regions bisected by roadways. We examined the impact of roads on seasonal migration, genetic diversity, and gene flow among populations. Snakes in hibernacula isolated by roads had significantly lower genetic diversity and higher genetic differentiation than snakes in hibernacula in contiguous habitat. Genetic‐assignment analyses revealed that interruption to seasonal migration was the mechanism underlying these patterns. Our results underscore the sizeable impact of roads on this species, despite their relatively recent construction at our study sites (7 to 10 generations of rattlesnakes), the utility of population genetics for studies of road ecology, and the need for mitigating effects of roads.     

The Potential for Species Conservation in Tropical Secondary Forests

Abstract: In the wake of widespread loss of old‐growth forests throughout the tropics, secondary forests will likely play a growing role in the conservation of forest biodiversity. We considered a complex hierarchy of factors that interact in space and time to determine the conservation potential of tropical secondary forests. Beyond the characteristics of local forest patches, spatial and temporal landscape dynamics influence the establishment, species composition, and persistence of secondary forests. Prospects for conservation of old‐growth species in secondary forests are maximized in regions where the ratio of secondary to old‐growth forest area is relatively low, older secondary forests have persisted, anthropogenic disturbance after abandonment is relatively low, seed‐dispersing fauna are present, and old‐growth forests are close to abandoned sites. The conservation value of a secondary forest is expected to increase over time, as species arriving from remaining old‐growth forest patches accumulate. Many studies are poorly replicated, which limits robust assessments of the number and abundance of old‐growth species present in secondary forests. Older secondary forests are not often studied and few long‐term studies are conducted in secondary forests. Available data indicate that both old‐growth and second‐growth forests are important to the persistence of forest species in tropical, human‐modified landscapes.     

Permeability of Roads to Movement of Scrubland Lizards and Small Mammals

A primary objective of road ecology is to understand and predict how roads affect connectivity of wildlife populations. Road avoidance behavior can fragment populations, whereas lack of road avoidance can result in high mortality due to wildlife‐vehicle collisions. Many small animal species focus their activities to particular microhabitats within their larger habitat. We sought to assess how different types of roads affect the movement of small vertebrates and to explore whether responses to roads may be predictable on the basis of animal life history or microhabitat preferences preferences. We tracked the movements of fluorescently marked animals at 24 sites distributed among 3 road types: low‐use dirt, low‐use secondary paved, and rural 2‐lane highway. Most data we collected were on the San Diego pocket mouse (Chaetodipus fallax), cactus mouse (Peromyscus eremicus), western fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis), orange‐throated whiptail (Aspidoscelis hyperythra), Dulzura kangaroo rat (Dipodomys simulans) (dirt, secondary paved), and deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) (highway only). San Diego pocket mice and cactus mice moved onto dirt roads but not onto a low‐use paved road of similar width or onto the highway, indicating they avoid paved road substrate. Both lizard species moved onto the dirt and secondary paved roads but avoided the rural 2‐lane rural highway, indicating they may avoid noise, vibration, or visual disturbance from a steady flow of traffic. Kangaroo rats did not avoid the dirt or secondary paved roads. Overall, dirt and secondary roads were more permeable to species that prefer to forage or bask in open areas of their habitat, rather than under the cover of rocks or shrubs. However, all study species avoided the rural 2‐lane highway. Our results suggest that microhabitat use preferences and road substrate help predict species responses to low‐use roads, but roads with heavy traffic may deter movement of a much wider range of small animal species.     

Applying network theory to prioritize multispecies habitat networks that are robust to climate and land‐use change

Designing connected landscapes is among the most widespread strategies for achieving biodiversity conservation targets. The challenge lies in simultaneously satisfying the connectivity needs of multiple species at multiple spatial scales under uncertain climate and land‐use change. To evaluate the contribution of remnant habitat fragments to the connectivity of regional habitat networks, we developed a method to integrate uncertainty in climate and land‐use change projections with the latest developments in network‐connectivity research and spatial, multipurpose conservation prioritization. We used land‐use change simulations to explore robustness of species’ habitat networks to alternative development scenarios. We applied our method to 14 vertebrate focal species of periurban Montreal, Canada. Accounting for connectivity in spatial prioritization strongly modified conservation priorities and the modified priorities were robust to uncertain climate change. Setting conservation priorities based on habitat quality and connectivity maintained a large proportion of the region's connectivity, despite anticipated habitat loss due to climate and land‐use change. The application of connectivity criteria alongside habitat‐quality criteria for protected‐area design was efficient with respect to the amount of area that needs protection and did not necessarily amplify trade‐offs among conservation criteria. Our approach and results are being applied in and around Montreal and are well suited to the design of ecological networks and green infrastructure for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services in other regions, in particular regions around large cities, where connectivity is critically low.     

Reducing the Maladaptive Attractiveness of Solar Panels to Polarotactic Insects

Abstract: Human‐made objects (e.g., buildings with glass surfaces) can reflect horizontally polarized light so strongly that they appear to aquatic insects to be bodies of water. Insects that lay eggs in water are especially attracted to such structures because these insects use horizontal polarization of light off bodies of water to find egg‐laying sites. Thus, these sources of polarized light can become ecological traps associated with reproductive failure and mortality in organisms that are attracted to them and by extension with rapid population declines or collapse. Solar panels are a new source of polarized light pollution. Using imaging polarimetry, we measured the reflection–polarization characteristics of different solar panels and in multiple‐choice experiments in the field we tested their attractiveness to mayflies, caddis flies, dolichopodids, and tabanids. At the Brewster angle, solar panels polarized reflected light almost completely (degree of polarization d ≈100%) and substantially exceeded typical polarization values for water (d ≈30–70%). Mayflies (Ephemeroptera), stoneflies (Trichoptera), dolichopodid dipterans, and tabanid flies (Tabanidae) were the most attracted to solar panels and exhibited oviposition behavior above solar panels more often than above surfaces with lower degrees of polarization (including water), but in general they avoided solar cells with nonpolarizing white borders and white grates. The highly and horizontally polarizing surfaces that had nonpolarizing, white cell borders were 10‐ to 26‐fold less attractive to insects than the same panels without white partitions. Although solar panels can act as ecological traps, fragmenting their solar‐active area does lessen their attractiveness to polarotactic insects. The design of solar panels and collectors and their placement relative to aquatic habitats will likely affect populations of aquatic insects that use polarized light as a behavioral cue.     

Conservation Implications of Drastic Reductions in the Smallest and Most Isolated Populations of Giant Pandas

Abstract: In conservation biology, understanding the causes of endangerment is a key step to devising effective conservation strategies. We used molecular evidence (coalescent simulations of population changes from microsatellite data) and historical information (habitat and human population changes) to investigate how the most‐isolated populations of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in the Xiaoxiangling Mountains became highly endangered. These populations experienced a strong, recent demographic reduction (60‐fold), starting approximately 250 years BP. Explosion of the human population and use of non‐native crop species at the peak of the Qing Empire resulted in land‐use changes, deforestation, and habitat fragmentation, which are likely to have led to the drastic reduction of the most‐isolated populations of giant pandas. We predict that demographic, genetic, and environmental factors will lead to extinction of giant pandas in the Xiaoxiangling Mountains in the future if the population remains isolated. Therefore, a targeted conservation action—translocation—has been proposed and is being implemented by the Chinese goverment.     

Effects of Dam‐Induced Landscape Fragmentation on Amazonian Ant–Plant Mutualistic Networks

Mutualistic networks are critical to biological diversity maintenance; however, their structures and functionality may be threatened by a swiftly changing world. In the Amazon, the increasing number of dams poses a large threat to biological diversity because they greatly alter and fragment the surrounding landscape. Tight coevolutionary interactions typical of tropical forests, such as the ant–myrmecophyte mutualism, where the myrmecophyte plants provide domatia nesting space to their symbiotic ants, may be jeopardized by the landscape changes caused by dams. We analyzed 31 ant–myrmecophyte mutualistic networks in undisturbed and disturbed sites surrounding Balbina, the largest Central Amazonian dam. We tested how ant–myrmecophyte networks differ among dam‐induced islands, lake edges, and undisturbed forests in terms of species richness, composition, structure, and robustness (number of species remaining in the network after partner extinctions). We also tested how landscape configuration in terms of area, isolation, shape, and neighborhood alters the structure of the ant–myrmecophyte networks on islands. Ant–myrmecophytic networks were highly compartmentalized in undisturbed forests, and the compartments had few strongly connected mutualistic partners. In contrast, networks at lake edges and on islands were not compartmentalized and were negatively affected by island area and isolation in terms of species richness, density, and composition. Habitat loss and fragmentation led to coextinction cascades that contributed to the elimination of entire ant–plant compartments. Furthermore, many myrmecophytic plants in disturbed sites lost their mutualistic ant partners or were colonized by opportunistic, nonspecialized ants. Robustness of ant–myrmecophyte networks on islands was lower than robustness near lake edges and in undisturbed forest and was particularly susceptible to the extinction of plants. Beyond the immediate habitat loss caused by the building of large dams in Amazonia, persistent edge effects and habitat fragmentation associated with dams had large negative effects on animal–plant mutualistic networks. Efectos de la Fragmentación del Paisaje Inducida por Presas sobre Redes Mutualistas Hormiga‐Planta Amazónicas     

Changes in Size of Deforested Patches in the Brazilian Amazon

Abstract: Different deforestation agents, such as small farmers and large agricultural businesses, create different spatial patterns of deforestation. We analyzed the proportion of deforestation associated with different‐sized clearings in the Brazilian Amazon from 2002 through 2009. We used annual deforestation maps to determine total area deforested and the size distribution of deforested patches per year. The size distribution of deforested areas changed over time in a consistent, directional manner. Large clearings (>1000 ha) comprised progressively smaller amounts of total annual deforestation. The number of smaller clearings (6.25–50.00 ha) remained unchanged over time. Small clearings accounted for 73% of all deforestation in 2009, up from 30% in 2002, whereas the proportion of deforestation attributable to large clearings decreased from 13% to 3% between 2002 and 2009. Large clearings were concentrated in Mato Grosso, but also occurred in eastern Pará and in Rondônia. In 2002 large clearings accounted for 17%, 15%, and 10% of all deforestation in Mato Grosso, Pará, and Rondônia, respectively. Even in these states, where there is a highly developed agricultural business dominated by soybean production and cattle ranching, the proportional contribution of large clearings to total deforestation declined. By 2009 large clearings accounted for 2.5%, 3.5%, and 1% of all deforestation in Mato Grosso, Pará, and Rondônia, respectively. These changes in deforestation patch size are coincident with the implementation of new conservation policies by the Brazilian government, which suggests that these policies are not effectively reducing the number of small clearings in primary forest, whether these are caused by large landholders or smallholders, but have been more effective at reducing the frequency of larger clearings.     

Effect of Widespread Agricultural Chemical Use on Butterfly Diversity across Turkish Provinces

Although agricultural intensification is thought to pose a significant threat to species, little is known about its role in driving biodiversity loss at regional scales. I assessed the effects of a major component of agricultural intensification, agricultural chemical use, and land‐cover and climatic variables on butterfly diversity across 81 provinces in Turkey, where agriculture is practiced extensively but with varying degrees of intensity. I determined butterfly species presence in each province from data on known butterfly distributions and calculated agricultural chemical use as the proportion of agricultural households that use chemical fertilizers and pesticides. I used constrained correspondence analyses and regression‐based multimodel inference to determine the effect of environmental variables on species composition and richness, respectively. The variation in butterfly species composition across the provinces was largely explained (78%) by the combination of agricultural chemical use, particularly pesticides, and climatic and land‐cover variables. Although overall butterfly richness was primarily explained by climatic and land‐cover variables, such as the area of natural vegetation cover, threatened butterfly richness and the relative number of threatened butterfly species decreased substantially as the proportion of agricultural households using pesticides increased. These findings suggest that widespread use of agricultural chemicals, or other components of agricultural intensification that may be collinear with pesticide use, pose an imminent threat to the biodiversity of Turkey. Accordingly, policies that mitigate agricultural intensification and promote low‐input farming practices are crucial for protecting threatened species from extinction in rapidly industrializing nations such as Turkey. Efectos del Uso Extensivo de Agroquímicos sobre la Diversidad de Mariposas en Provincias Turcas     

Estimating Extinction Risk with Metapopulation Models of Large‐Scale Fragmentation

Habitat loss is the principal threat to species. How much habitat remains—and how quickly it is shrinking—are implicitly included in the way the International Union for Conservation of Nature determines a species’ risk of extinction. Many endangered species have habitats that are also fragmented to different extents. Thus, ideally, fragmentation should be quantified in a standard way in risk assessments. Although mapping fragmentation from satellite imagery is easy, efficient techniques for relating maps of remaining habitat to extinction risk are few. Purely spatial metrics from landscape ecology are hard to interpret and do not address extinction directly. Spatially explicit metapopulation models link fragmentation to extinction risk, but standard models work only at small scales. Counterintuitively, these models predict that a species in a large, contiguous habitat will fare worse than one in 2 tiny patches. This occurs because although the species in the large, contiguous habitat has a low probability of extinction, recolonization cannot occur if there are no other patches to provide colonists for a rescue effect. For 4 ecologically comparable bird species of the North Central American highland forests, we devised metapopulation models with area‐weighted self‐colonization terms; this reflected repopulation of a patch from a remnant of individuals that survived an adverse event. Use of this term gives extra weight to a patch in its own rescue effect. Species assigned least risk status were comparable in long‐term extinction risk with those ranked as threatened. This finding suggests that fragmentation has had a substantial negative effect on them that is not accounted for in their Red List category. Estimación del Riesgo de Extinción Mediante Modelos Metapoblacionales de Fragmentación a Gran Escala     

Classification of Climate‐Change‐Induced Stresses on Biological Diversity

Abstract: Conservation actions need to account for and be adapted to address changes that will occur under global climate change. The identification of stresses on biological diversity (as defined in the Convention on Biological Diversity) is key in the process of adaptive conservation management. We considered any impact of climate change on biological diversity a stress because such an effect represents a change (negative or positive) in key ecological attributes of an ecosystem or parts of it. We applied a systemic approach and a hierarchical framework in a comprehensive classification of stresses to biological diversity that are caused directly by global climate change. Through analyses of 20 conservation sites in 7 countries and a review of the literature, we identified climate‐change‐induced stresses. We grouped the identified stresses according to 3 levels of biological diversity: stresses that affect individuals and populations, stresses that affect biological communities, and stresses that affect ecosystem structure and function. For each stress category, we differentiated 3 hierarchical levels of stress: stress class (thematic grouping with the coarsest resolution, 8); general stresses (thematic groups of specific stresses, 21); and specific stresses (most detailed definition of stresses, 90). We also compiled an overview of effects of climate change on ecosystem services using the categories of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and 2 additional categories. Our classification may be used to identify key climate‐change‐related stresses to biological diversity and may assist in the development of appropriate conservation strategies. The classification is in list format, but it accounts for relations among climate‐change‐induced stresses.     

Interpreting beta‐diversity components over time to conserve metacommunities in highly dynamic ecosystems

The concept of metacommunity (i.e., a set of local communities linked by dispersal) has gained great popularity among community ecologists. However, metacommunity research mostly addresses questions on spatial patterns of biodiversity at the regional scale, whereas conservation planning requires quantifying temporal variation in those metacommunities and the contributions that individual (local) sites make to regional dynamics. We propose that recent advances in diversity‐partitioning methods may allow for a better understanding of metacommunity dynamics and the identification of keystone sites. We used time series of the 2 components of beta diversity (richness and replacement) and the contributions of local sites to these components to examine which sites controlled source‐sink dynamics in a highly dynamic model system (an intermittent river). The relative importance of the richness and replacement components of beta diversity fluctuated over time, and sample aggregation led to underestimation of beta diversity by up to 35%. Our literature review revealed that research on intermittent rivers would benefit greatly from examination of beta‐diversity components over time. Adequately appraising spatiotemporal variability in community composition and identifying sites that are pivotal for maintaining biodiversity at the landscape scale are key needs for conservation prioritization and planning. Thus, our framework may be used to guide conservation actions in highly dynamic ecosystems when time‐series data describing biodiversity across sites connected by dispersal are available.     

Extrapolating cetacean densities to quantitatively assess human impacts on populations in the high seas

As human activities expand beyond national jurisdictions to the high seas, there is an increasing need to consider anthropogenic impacts to species inhabiting these waters. The current scarcity of scientific observations of cetaceans in the high seas impedes the assessment of population‐level impacts of these activities. We developed plausible density estimates to facilitate a quantitative assessment of anthropogenic impacts on cetacean populations in these waters. Our study region extended from a well‐surveyed region within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone into a large region of the western North Atlantic sparsely surveyed for cetaceans. We modeled densities of 15 cetacean taxa with available line transect survey data and habitat covariates and extrapolated predictions to sparsely surveyed regions. We formulated models to reduce the extent of extrapolation beyond covariate ranges, and constrained them to model simple and generalizable relationships. To evaluate confidence in the predictions, we mapped where predictions were made outside sampled covariate ranges, examined alternate models, and compared predicted densities with maps of sightings from sources that could not be integrated into our models. Confidence levels in model results depended on the taxon and geographic area and highlighted the need for additional surveying in environmentally distinct areas. With application of necessary caution, our density estimates can inform management needs in the high seas, such as the quantification of potential cetacean interactions with military training exercises, shipping, fisheries, and deep‐sea mining and be used to delineate areas of special biological significance in international waters. Our approach is generally applicable to other marine taxa and geographic regions for which management will be implemented but data are sparse.     

Local Land‐Use Planning to Conserve Biodiversity: Planners’ Perspectives on What Works

Abstract: Because habitat loss due to urbanization is a primary threat to biodiversity, and land‐use decisions in urbanizing areas are mainly made at the local level, land‐use planning by municipal planning departments has a potentially important—but largely unrealized—role in conserving biodiversity. To understand planners’ perspectives on the factors that facilitate and impede biodiversity conservation in local planning, we interviewed directors of 17 municipal planning departments in the greater Seattle (Washington, U.S.A.) area and compared responses of planners from similar‐sized jurisdictions that were “high” and “low performing” with respect to incorporation of biodiversity conservation in local planning. Planners from low‐performing jurisdictions regarded mandates from higher governmental levels as the primary drivers of biodiversity conservation, whereas those from high‐performing jurisdictions regarded community values as the main drivers, although they also indicated that mandates were important. Biodiversity conservation was associated with presence of local conservation flagship elements (e.g., salmonids) and human‐centered benefits of biodiversity conservation (e.g., quality of life). Planners from high‐ and low‐performing jurisdictions favored different planning mechanisms for biodiversity conservation, perhaps reflecting differences in funding and staffing. High performers reported more collaborations with other entities on biodiversity issues. Planners’ comments indicated that the term biodiversity may be problematic in the context of local planning. The action most planners recommended to increase biodiversity conservation in local planning was public education. These results suggest that to advance biodiversity conservation in local land‐use planning, conservation biologists should investigate and educate the public about local conservation flagships and human benefits of local biodiversity, work to raise ecological literacy and explain biodiversity more effectively to the public, and promote collaboration on biodiversity conservation among jurisdictions and inclusion of biodiversity specialists in planning departments.     

Should We Protect the Strong or the Weak? Risk,Resilience, and the Selection of Marine Protected Areas

Abstract: It is thought that recovery of marine habitats from uncontrollable disturbance may be faster in marine reserves than in unprotected habitats. But which marine habitats should be protected, those areas at greatest risk or those at least risk? We first defined this problem mathematically for 2 alternate conservation objectives. We then analytically solved this problem for both objectives and determined under which conditions each of the different protection strategies was optimal. If the conservation objective was to maximize the chance of having at least 1 healthy site, then the best strategy was protection of the site at lowest risk. On the other hand, if the goal was to maximize the expected number of healthy sites, the optimal strategy was more complex. If protected sites were likely to spend a significant amount of time in a degraded state, then it was best to protect low‐risk sites. Alternatively, if most areas were generally healthy then, counterintuitively, it was best to protect sites at higher risk. We applied these strategies to a situation of cyclone disturbance of coral reefs on Australia's Great Barrier Reef. With regard to the risk of cyclone disturbance, the optimal reef to protect differed dramatically, depending on the expected speed of reef recovery of both protected and unprotected reefs. An adequate consideration of risk is fundamental to all conservation actions and can indicate surprising routes to conservation success.