Large inter annual variation in air quality during the annual festival ‘Diwali' in an Indian megacity

A network of air quality and weather monitoring stations was established under the System of Air Quality Forecasting and Research(SAFAR) project in Delhi. We report observations of ozone(O_3), nitrogen oxides(NO_x), carbon monoxide(CO) and particulate matter(PM_2.5and PM_(10)) before, during and after the Diwali in two consecutive years, i.e., November 2010 and October 2011. The Diwali days are characterised by large firework displays throughout India. The observations show that the background concentrations of particulate matter are between 5 and 10 times the permissible limits in Europe and the United States. During the Diwali-2010, the highest observed PM_(10) and PM_2.5mass concentration is as high as2070 μg/m~3 and 1620 μg/m3, respectively(24 hr mean), which was about 20 and 27 times to National Ambient Air Quality Standards(NAAQS). For Diwali-2011, the increase in PM_(10) and PM_2.5mass concentrations was much less with their peaks of 600 and of 390 μg/m~3 respectively, as compared to the background concentrations. Contrary to previous reports,firework display was not found to strongly influence the NO_x, and O_3 mixing ratios, with the increase within the observed variability in the background. CO mixing ratios showed an increase. We show that the large difference in 2010 and 2011 pollutant concentrations is controlled by weather parameters.     

中国西部年降水量的气候变化

中国西部大部分处于干旱、半干旱地区,而且降水量长期变化剧烈。论文综合整理了17个年降水量代用资料序列,其中11个为树木年轮,4个为史料,2个为冰芯积累量。所有序列均采用10年平均值,对1880～1979年的100年平均求每10年平均百分率距平。EOF1表明河套以西到祁连山北部有一致的变化。这个特征与1951～1999年的观测资料及模拟结果的EOF1十分相似。这表明代用资料能反映西部年降水量变化的主要特征。根据代用资料EOF1的时间系数及中心区降水量变化曲线,17世纪,特别是上半叶干旱严重。有资料证明,这个干旱期可能开始于16世纪70年代。近50年是400年以来中国西部年降水量最丰沛的时期。多雨主要发生在气候剧烈变暖的20世纪最后30年。从代用资料来看,降水量变化有“世纪周期”。17世纪的干旱与20世纪末的多雨是否分别与小冰期及现代气候变暖有关,还要进一步研究。     

Laws of annual nutrient uptake in a Paulownia plantation

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Sexual dimorphism in immune function changes during the annual cycle in house sparrows

Difference between sexes in parasitism is a common phenomenon among birds, which may be related to differences between males and females in their investment into immune functions or as a consequence of differential exposure to parasites. Because life-history strategies change sex specifically during the annual cycle, immunological responses of the host aiming to reduce the impact of parasites may be sexually dimorphic. Despite the great complexity of the immune system, studies on immunoecology generally characterise the immune status through a few variables, often overlooking potentially important seasonal and gender effects. However, because of the differences in physiological and defence mechanisms among different arms of the immune system, we expect divergent responses of immune components to environmental seasonality. In male and female house sparrows (Passer domesticus), we measured the major components of the immune system (innate, acquired, cellular and humoral) during four important life-history stages across the year: (1) mating, (2) breeding, (3) moulting and (4) during the winter capture and also following introduction to captivity in aviary. Different individuals were sampled from the same population during the four life cycle stages. We found that three out of eight immune variables showed a significant life cycle stage × sex interaction. The difference in immune response between the sexes was significant in five immune variables during the mating stage, when females had consistently stronger immune function than males, while variables varied generally non-significantly with sex during the remaining three life cycle stages. Our results show that the immune system is highly variable between life cycle stages and sexes, highlighting the potential fine tuning of the immune system to specific physiological states and environmental conditions.     

Eight years of annual no-till cropping in Washington's winter wheat-summer fallow region

The tillage-based winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-summer fallow (WW-SF) cropping system has dominated dryland farming in the Pacific Northwest USA for 125 years. We conducted a large-scale multidisciplinary 8-year study of annual (i.e., no summer fallow) no-till cropping systems as an alternative to WW-SF. Soft white and hard white classes of winter and spring wheat, spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), yellow mustard (Brassica hirta Moench), and safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.) were grown in various rotation combinations. Annual precipitation was less than the long-term average of 301 mm in 7 out of 8 years. Rhizoctonia bare patch disease caused by the fungus Rhizoctonia solani AG-8 appeared in year 3 and continued through year 8 in all no-till plots. All crops were susceptible to rhizoctonia, but bare patch area in wheat was reduced, and grain yield increased, when wheat was grown in rotation with barley every other year. Remnant downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.) weed seeds remained dormant for 6 years and longer to heavily infest recrop winter wheat. There were few quantifiable changes in soil quality due to crop rotation, but soil organic carbon (SOC) increased in the surface 0–5 cm depth with no-till during the 8 years to approach that found in undisturbed native soil. Annual no-till crop rotations experienced lower average profitability and greater income variability compared to WW-SF. Yellow mustard and safflower were not economically viable. Continuous annual cropping using no-till provides excellent protection against wind erosion and shows potential to increase soil quality, but the practice involves high economic risk compared to WW-SF. This paper provides the first comprehensive multidisciplinary report of long-term alternative annual no-till cropping systems research in the low-precipitation region of the Pacific Northwest.     

四川省乐山市近51年极端气温变化研究

基于1962—2012四川省乐山市每日气温资料,运用线性拟合及累积距平、Morlet复数小波等方法对WMO发布的10种极端气温指数进行了计算和分析。结果表明:(1)极端最高气温、极端最低气温都有上升趋势,霜冻、冷夜、冷昼呈下降趋势,夏日、热夜、暖夜、暖昼呈现出波动上升趋势。(2)年极端最高气温、暖夜、暖昼存在着27 a左右的周期,夏日、霜冻、热夜、冷夜、冷昼存在着28 a左右的周期,年极端最低气温存在着11 a左右的周期。除年极端最低气温外,其他的极端气温指数虽然主控周期不一致,但都存在28 a左右的周期。冷昼和暖昼变化较为复杂,存在4个周期。(3)极端天气暖指数呈上升趋势,夏日、热夜、暖夜、暖昼分别增加了15天、21天、32天、29天,极端天气冷指数呈下降趋势,霜冻、冷夜、冷昼分别减少了2天、24天、4天,乐山地区发生极端天气事件的可能性增加。(4)乐山市极端天气现象的发生与日益增加的人类活动以及全球变暖的大趋势密切相关。由于乐山市独特的地理位置,随着乐山市极端天气现象可能性的增加,乐山市发生干旱、洪涝、山地灾害的可能性也随之提高,需要做好预防准备。     

基于灰色动态模型群的衡水市居民年用水量预测

针对居民用水量序列的随机性和周期性以及传统灰色模型由于离散程度大而产生的过拟合问题,依据灰色模型理论构造了由5个GM(1,1)模型组成的灰色动态模型群;基于衡水市2007—2019年居民年用水量数据,采用灰色动态模型群对衡水市2020—2030年居民年用水量变化进行预测研究,并对预测结果进行残差检验以及残差修正;将灰色动态模型群分别与5个GM(1,1)模型进行对比,以检验模型性能。结果表明：灰色动态模型群的预测相对误差整体小于传统GM(1,1)模型,具有更好的准确性和适用性;衡水市2019年居民年用水量为1 795.00万m³,2030年预计增至2 862.21万m³,未来衡水市居民年用水量呈明显增长趋势,这与衡水市未来人口增长和社会经济发展趋势相吻合。衡水市未来居民用水量预测结果可为供水优化调度和水资源优化配置提供参考。     

全球大气降水年均氚浓度恢复模型(1960-2014年)

运用环境同位素氚（³H）建立模型来定量研究地下水运动规律已被广泛应用于水文地质和环境监测领域,大气降水氚浓度是这类模型中必须的输入值.目前已建立的全球大气降水氚浓度模型（MGMTP）为这一领域的研究提供了一种恢复全球范围内年平均氚浓度的新方法,但该氚浓度模型后期恢复数据出现异常负值及面临适用年限等问题.因此,本文选用国际原子能机构和世界气象组织提供的1960—2014年全球氚浓度值实测资料,基于因子分析法拓展了MGMTP模型的适用年份,并对不同的数据预处理及分析方法进行了对比,同时对MGMTP模型提及的"异常负值"问题进行了进一步明确与改进.最后把模型应用于南北半球的典型站点,将恢复得到的数据与实测数据进行对比,发现拓展后的MGMTP模型结果能较好地拟合实测数据.研究表明,该模型具有简单易用、时间序列长、全球性适用等优点,尤其对缺少大气降水氚浓度实测数据的地区具有重要参考价值.     

渤海湾表层沉积物重金属污染状况及年际变化分析

根据2014～2018年渤海湾海洋生态环境沉积物质量业务化监测数据,对沉积物中Hg、Cu、Pb、Cd、Cr、Zn和As等7种重金属元素的含量及年际变化趋势进行了分析.通过单因子污染指数法、地累积指数法和潜在生态风险指数法,评价了研究区近岸海域沉积物重金属污染状况和潜在生态风险程度.结果显示,符合一类标准的站位达92%以上,主要超标因子为Cd和Hg,这两种重金属含量的高值区一般分布在渤海湾南北两侧近岸地区,包括北侧天津港、黄骅港附近,南侧滨州、东营近岸.Hg、Cu、Pb、Cd、Cr、Zn和As等单个重金属含量年际变化有所不同,年平均单因子污染指数均不大于1,年平均地累积指数均小于0,表明研究海域沉积物质量状况良好,其中Cu单因子污染指数较大,近5年的平均值达到0.653;Cd地累积指数相对较大,对其监测工作值得重点关注.2014～2018年研究区域沉积物重金属的总潜在生态危害程度为轻微等级,仅Hg和Cd部分站位出现强和中等的生态危害程度,各类重金属元素对渤海湾海域生态构成潜在危害风险顺序为Cd>Hg>As>Pb>Cu>Cr>Zn;RI基本表现为先升高后...     

基于精细化年均行驶里程建立机动车排放清单

基于环保检测数据，提出“里程-车龄”曲线用以获取满足“车辆类型-燃料种类-排放标准”三级分类的精细化年均行驶里程.使用《道路机动车大气污染物排放清单编制技术指南（试行）》推荐值、车辆类型均值、“里程-车龄”曲线3种方式获取年均行驶里程并分别建立排放清单，发现年均行驶里程的本地化与精细化可以极大降低行驶里程不确定性对排放清单准确性的影响.采用精细化年均行驶里程，计算得到青岛市2017年机动车CO、VOCs、NO_x、PM₁₀、NH₃和SO₂的排放量分别为7.07，1.14，2.84，0.10，0.08和0.08万t.分析排放构成可知，老旧车淘汰在当前仍可作为青岛市机动车排放治理的有效举措.结合路网信息与交通数据，得到0.01°×0.01°高时空分辨率网格化排放清单.结果表明，青岛市机动车排放分布在不同时段变化明显.以NO_x为例，排放的早晚高峰分别出现在8：00与17：00，占到了全天总排放的8.17%和7.53%.同时，排放分布存在着空间异质性，排放从城市中心至边缘呈逐渐降低趋势，沿高速路呈明显带状分布.     

太原市多环芳烃(PAHs)排放清单与分布特征分析

根据太原市11种主要排放源的排放因子和活动量数据,估算了美国国家环境保护局(US EPA)优先控制污染物清单中16种多环芳烃(PAHs)的年排放量.结果表明2010年太原市16种PAHs的排放量约为332.10t,其中7种致癌性PAHs排放总量为35.11t.从排放源看,生活燃煤和炼焦煤是太原市排放PAHs的主要来源,占总排放量的65%以上.从各地区的PAHs排放情况看,排放量最大的地区是清徐县(87t/a),占总排放的27%.其次为古交市(54t/a)、晋源区(44t/a)、尖草坪区(40t/a).各地区人均收入与单位GDP排放量之间呈负相关 (R2=0.727);各地区PAHs排放量与农村人口之间呈正相关(R2=0.813),从排放谱看,排放以低环PAHs为主(81%),致癌性PAHs占总排放量的10.6%.结果表明,太原市PAHs的排放与太原市特殊的能源结构和人群结构有关.     

黄海西部降水pH值的年度及季节统计特征

采用内核密度估计方法对黄海西部降水pH值年度/季节特征进行了分析.结果显示,降水pH值年度内核密度估计图相似,呈典型双态分布,以低pH值峰为主.季节性分布特征春、夏、冬季相近,低pH值峰为主,秋季高pH值峰为主.该海域降水pH值特征是陆源输入与海源输入相互影响的结果.根据数据非正态分布特点,采用bootstrap模拟取样获得的降水pH代表值显示,黄海西部降水总体呈弱酸雨特征,年度与季节性pH代表值都呈弱酸性,且年度降水pH值变化范围要大于季节性变化,降水酸性依次为春季>冬季>秋季>夏季,季节性特征较显著.      

The annual legume pasture in cereal—Ley farming systems of southern Australia: A review

In the mid 1930's self-regenerating annual legume pastures were adopted into southern Australian cereal farming systems. The use of subterranean clover (Trifolium subterraneum L.) and various Medicago species, together with applications of superphosphate, improved soil fertility and led to increased cereal yields and greater sheep and cattle production. This review discusses the development of these cereal—ley systems with particular reference to the role of annual legume pastures, and points out their relevance to other regions with similar climatic patterns.     

An improved method for predicting seasonal and annual shadowing from cooling tower plumes

An improved model developed at Argonne National Laboratory and the University of Illinois (ANL/UI) for predicting long-term shadowing due to cooling tower plumes is presented, and its assumption are compared with those used in previous models. The model is based on a method for the selection of representative categories of similar plumes developed by Dunn and Policastro (Dunn, 1980, Proc. IAHR Cooling Tower Workshop, San Francisco; Policastro et al., 1984, Report EPRI CS-3403-CCM). At a given site this method reduces the large number of meteorological data cases in a season or year to a much smaller number (≈35) of representative cases, each of which will have a predicted plume substantially different from the others. Plume predictions for the reduced set of category representative cases are then made with the validated ANL/UI plume model. With category representative plume shape, wind speed, wind direction and sun angles available for each hour, full effects of sun angles for the latitude and longitude of the site to be studied are included. The ANL/UI model yields seasonal and annual isopleths of hours of additional shadowing or of percentage reduction in total and direct solar energy arriving at the ground on a horizontal surface. Results for two hypothetical sites with 500 MWe generating capacity are presented and contrasted, one at Syracuse, NY, and the other at Spokane, WA.     

Assessing the potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in intensively managed annual cropping systems at the regional scale

We predicted changes in yields and direct net soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from converting conventional to alternative management practices across one of the world's most productive agricultural regions, the Central Valley of California, using the DAYCENT model. Alternative practices included conservation tillage, winter cover cropping, manure application, a 25% reduction in N fertilizer input and combinations of these. Alternative practices were evaluated for all unique combinations of crop rotation, climate, and soil types for the period 1997-2006. The crops included were alfalfa, corn, cotton, melon, safflower, sunflower, tomato, and wheat. Our predictions indicate that, adopting alternative management practices would decrease yields up to 5%. Changes in modeled SOC and net soil GHG fluxes corresponded to values reported in the literature. Average potential reductions of net soil GHG fluxes with alternative practices ranged from −0.7 to −3.3 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the Sacramento Valley and −0.5 to −2.5 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for the San Joaquin Valley. While adopting a single alternative practice led to modest net soil GHG flux reductions (on average −1 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), combining two or more of these practices led to greater decreases in net soil GHG fluxes of up to −3 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. At the regional scale, the combination of winter cover cropping with manure application was particularly efficient in reducing GHG emissions. However, GHG mitigation potentials were mostly non-permanent because 60-80% of the decreases in net soil GHG fluxes were attributed to increases in SOC, except for the reduced fertilizer input practice, where reductions were mainly attributed to decreased N₂O emissions. In conclusion, there are long-term GHG mitigation potentials within agriculture, but spatial and temporal aggregation will be necessary to reduce uncertainties around GHG emission reductions and the delivery risk of the associated C credits.