Colloid transport in unsaturated porous media: the role of water content and ionic strength on particle straining

Packed column and mathematical modeling studies were conducted to explore the influence of water saturation, pore-water ionic strength, and grain size on the transport of latex microspheres (1.1 microm) in porous media. Experiments were carried out under chemically unfavorable conditions for colloid attachment to both solid-water interfaces (SWI) and air-water interfaces (AWI) using negatively charged and hydrophilic colloids and modifying the solution chemistry with a bicarbonate buffer to pH 10. Interaction energy calculations and complementary batch experiments were conducted and demonstrated that partitioning of colloids to the SWI and AWI was insignificant across the range of the ionic strengths considered. The breakthrough curve and final deposition profile were measured in each experiment indicating colloid retention was highly dependent on the suspension ionic strength, water content, and sand grain size. In contrast to conventional filtration theory, most colloids were found deposited close to the column inlet, and hyper-exponential deposition profiles were observed. A mathematical model, accounting for time- and depth-dependent straining, produced a reasonably good fit for both the breakthrough curves and final deposition profiles. Experimental and modeling results suggest that straining--the retention of colloids in low velocity regions of porous media such as grain junctions--was the primary mechanism of colloid retention under both saturated and unsaturated conditions. The extent of stagnant regions of flow within the pore structure is enhanced with decreasing water content, leading to a greater amount of retention. Ionic strength also contributes to straining, because the number of colloids that are held in the secondary energy minimum increases with ionic strength. These weakly associated colloids are prone to be translated to stagnation regions formed at grain-grain junctions, the solid-water-air triple point, and dead-end pores and then becoming trapped.     

Anomalous transport of colloids and solutes in a shear zone

Transport experiments with colloids and radionuclides in a shear zone were conducted during the Colloid and Radionuclide Retardation experiment (CRR) at Nagra's Grimsel Test Site. Breakthrough curves of bentonite colloids and uranine, a non-sorbing solute, were measured in an asymmetric dipole flow field. The colloid breakthrough is earlier than that of uranine. Both breakthrough curves show anomalously long late time tails and the slope of the late time tails for the colloids is slightly higher. Anomalous late time tails are commonly associated with matrix diffusion processes; the diffusive interaction of solutes transported in open channels with the adjacent porous rock matrix or zones of stagnant water. The breakthrough curves for different colloid size classes are very similar and show no signs of fractionation due to their (size-dependent) diffusivity. It is proposed that tailing of the colloids is mainly caused by the structure of the flow field and that for the colloid transport, matrix diffusion is of minor importance. This has consequences for the interpretation of the uranine breakthrough. Comparisons of experimental results with numerical studies and with the evaluation of the colloid breakthrough with continuous time random theory imply that the tailing in the conservative solute breakthrough in this shear zone is not only caused by matrix diffusion. Part of the tailing can be attributed to advective transport in fracture networks and advection in low velocity regions. Models based on the advection-dispersion equation and matrix diffusion do not properly describe the temporal and spatial evolution of colloid and solute transport in such systems with a consistent set of parameters.     

Bacteria transport and deposition under unsaturated conditions: the role of the matrix grain size and the bacteria surface protein

Unsaturated (80% water saturated) packed column experiments were conducted to investigate the influence of grain size distribution and bacteria surface macromolecules on bacteria (Rhodococcus rhodochrous) transport and deposition mechanisms. Three sizes of silica sands were used in these transport experiments, and their median grain sizes were 607, 567, and 330 microm. The amount of retained bacteria increased with decreasing sand size, and most of the deposited bacteria were found adjacent to the column inlet. The deposition profiles were not consistent with predictions based on classical filtration theory. The experimental data could be accurately characterized using a mathematical model that accounted for first-order attachment, detachment, and time and depth-dependent straining processes. Visual observations of the bacteria deposition as well as mathematical modelling indicated that straining was the dominant mechanism of deposition in these sands (78-99.6% of the deposited bacteria), which may have been enhanced due to the tendency of this bacterium to form aggregates. An additional unsaturated experiment was conducted to better deduce the role of bacteria surface macromolecules on attachment and straining processes. In this case, the bacteria surface was treated using a proteolitic enzyme. This technique was assessed by examining the Fourier-transform infrared spectrum and hydrophobicity of untreated and enzyme treated cells. Both of these analytical procedures demonstrated that this enzymatic treatment removed the surface proteins and/or associated macromolecules. Transport and modelling studies conducted with the enzyme treated bacteria, revealed a decrease in attachment, but that straining was not significantly affected by this treatment.     

Transport of Escherichia coli and solutes during waste water infiltration in an urban alluvial aquifer

Recharge of waste water in an unconsolidated poorly sorted alluvial aquifer is a complex process, both physically and hydrochemically. The aim of this paper is to analyse and conceptualise vertical transport mechanisms taking place in an urban area of extensive wastewater infiltration by analysing and combining the water balance, the microbial (Escherichia coli) mass balance, and the mass balance for dissolved solutes. For this, data on sediment characteristics (grain size, organic carbon, reactive iron, and calcite), groundwater levels, and concentrations of E. coli in groundwater and waste water were collected. In the laboratory, data on E. coli decay rate coefficients, and on bacteria retention characteristics of the sediment were collected via column experiments. The results indicated that shallow groundwater, at depths of 50 m below the surface, was contaminated with E. coli concentrations as high as 10(6) CFU/100 mL. In general, E. coli concentrations decreased only 3 log units from the point of infiltration to shallow groundwater. Concentrations were lower at greater depths in the aquifer. In laboratory columns of disturbed sediments, bacteria removal was 2-5 log units/0.5 cm column sediment. Because of the relatively high E. coli concentrations in the shallow aquifer, transport had likely taken place via a connected network of pores with a diameter large enough to allow bacterial transport instead of via the sediment matrix, which was inaccessible for bacteria, as was clear from the column experiments. The decay rate coefficient was determined from laboratory microcosms to be 0.15 d(-1). Assuming that decay in the aquifer was similar to decay in the laboratory, then the pore water flow velocity between the point of infiltration and shallow groundwater, coinciding with a concentration decrease of 3 log units, was 0.38 m/d, and therefore, transport in this connected network of pores was fast. According to the water balance of the alluvial aquifer, determined from transient groundwater modelling, groundwater flow in the aquifer was mainly in vertical downward direction, and therefore, the mass balance for dissolved solutes was simulated using a 1D transport model of a 200 m column of the Quaternary Alluvium aquifer. The model, constructed with PHREEQC, included dual porosity, and was able to adequately simulate removal of E. coli, cation-exchange, and nitrification. The added value of the use of E. coli in this study was the recognition of relatively fast transport velocities occurring in the aquifer, and the necessity to use the dual porosity concept to investigate vertical transport mechanisms. Therefore, in general and if possible, microbial mass balances should be considered more systematically as an integral part of transport studies.     

Transport of Escherichia coli through variably saturated sand columns and modeling approaches

A sand column leaching system with well-controlled suction and flow rate was built to investigate the effects on bacterial transport of air-water interface effects (AWI) correlated to water content, particle size, and column length. Adsorption of Escherichia coli strain D to silica sands was measured in batch tests. The average % adsorption for coarse and fine sands was 45.9+/-7.8% and 96.9+/-3.2%, respectively. However, results from static batch adsorption experiments have limited applicability to dynamic bacterial transport in columns. The early breakthrough of E. coli relative to bromide was clear for all columns, namely c. 0.15 to 0.3 pore volume earlier. Column length had no significant effects on the E. coli peak concentration or on total recovery in leachate, indicating retention in the top layer of sands. Tailing of breakthrough curves was more prominent for all fine sand columns than their coarse sand counterparts. Bacterial recovery in leachate from coarse and saturated sand columns was significantly higher than from fine and unsaturated columns. Observed data were fitted by the convection-dispersion model, amended for one-site and two-site adsorption to particles, and for air-water interface (AWI) adsorption. Among all models, the two-site+AWI model achieved consistently high model efficiency for all experiments. Thus it is evident from experimental and modeling results that AWI adsorption plays an important role in E. coli transport in sand columns.     

Effect of cell physicochemical characteristics and motility on bacterial transport in groundwater

The influence of physicochemical characteristics and motility on bacterial transport in groundwater were examined in flow-through columns. Four strains of bacteria isolated from a crystalline rock groundwater system were investigated, with carboxylate-modified and amidine-modified latex microspheres and bromide as reference tracers. The bacterial isolates included a gram-positive rod (ML1), a gram-negative motile rod (ML2), a nonmotile mutant of ML2 (ML2m), and a gram-positive coccoid (ML3). Experiments were repeated at two flow velocities, in a glass column packed with glass beads, and in another packed with iron-oxyhydroxide coated glass beads. Bacteria breakthrough curves were interpreted using a transport equation that incorporates a sorption model from microscopic observation of bacterial deposition in flow-cell experiments. The model predicts that bacterial desorption rate will decrease exponentially with the amount of time the cell is attached to the solid surface. Desorption kinetics appeared to influence transport at the lower flow rate, but were not discernable at the higher flow rate. Iron-oxyhydroxide coatings had a lower-than-expected effect on bacterial breakthrough and no effect on the microsphere recovery in the column experiments. Cell wall type and shape also had minor effects on breakthrough. Motility tended to increase the adsorption rate, and decrease the desorption rate. The transport model predicts that at field scale, desorption rate kinetics may be important to the prediction of bacteria transport rates.     

Modelling the solute transport under nonequilibrium conditions on the basis of mass transfer equations

A solute transport model that describes nonequilibrium adsorption in soil/groundwater systems by mass transfer equations for film and intraparticle diffusion is presented. The model is useful in cases where breakthrough curve spreading cannot be explained by dispersion only. To evaluate its validity, the model was applied to several data sets from column experiments. The validity was also proved by a comparison with an analytical solution for the limiting case of predominating dispersion. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was performed to illustrate the influence of different process and sorption parameters (pore water velocity, intraparticle mass transfer coefficient, isotherm nonlinearity) on the shape of the calculated breakthrough curves. The application of the proposed model is discussed in comparison to the widely used dispersed flow/local equilibrium model, and a relationship between both models, which is based on a lumped parameter approach, is shown.     

The kinetic stability of colloid-associated plutonium: settling characteristics and species transformation

The colloid-associated plutonium-239, as the dominant species of Pu in natural environment, was formed through sorption of Pu onto in situ colloids. In case of chemical perturbations present in pore water, the fate and transport of Pu would be therefore impacted by changes in sorption affinity of Pu for the colloid surfaces. The present study reveals that colloidal ²³⁹Pu exhibited the kinetic stability in two respects. First, in situ colloids isolated from the vadose zone sediments at Lop Nor, when in contact with solutions of high ion concentrations or low pH, were significantly aggregated and then exhibited fast settling. Kinetics settling characteristics were described by the parameters, including settling index and characteristic time. Second, Pu dissociation from colloid surfaces occurred immediately after the introduction of Na⁺. However, the dissolved species was still unstable and had the potential for re-association with the fraction of colloids that had not settled out from the suspensions due to small size and then remained in suspension. This implies that Pu sorption sites on initial colloids were changed to the sites of suspended colloids.     

Contaminant transport in dual-porosity media with dissolved organic matter and bacteria present as mobile colloids

In riverbank filtration, contaminant transport is affected by colloidal particles such as dissolved organic matter (DOM) and bacterial particles. In addition, the subsurface heterogeneity influences the behavior of contaminant transport in riverbank filtration. A mathematical model is developed to describe the contaminant transport in dual-porosity media in the presence of DOM and bacteria as mobile colloids. In the model development, a porous medium is divided into the mobile and immobile regions to consider the presence of ineffective micropores in physically heterogeneous riverbanks. We assume that the contaminant transport in the mobile region is controlled by the advection and dispersion while the contaminant transport in the immobile region occurs due to the molecular diffusion. The contaminant transfer between the mobile and immobile regions takes place by diffusive mass transfer. The mobile region is conceptualized as a four-phase system: two mobile colloidal phases, an aqueous phase, and a solid matrix. The complete set of governing equations is solved numerically with a fully implicit finite difference method. The model results show that in riverbank filtration, the contaminant can migrate further than expected due to the presence of DOM and bacteria. In addition, the contaminant mobility increases further in the presence of the immobile region in aquifers. A sensitivity analysis shows that in dual-porosity media, earlier breakthrough of the contaminant takes place as the volumetric fraction of the mobile region decreases. It is also demonstrated that as the contaminant mass transfer rate coefficient between the mobile and immobile regions increases, the contaminant concentration gradient between the two regions reverses at earlier pore volumes. The contaminant mass transfer coefficient between the mobile and immobile regions mainly controls the tailing effect of the contaminant breakthrough. The contaminant breakthrough curves are sensitive to changes in contaminant adsorption and desorption rate coefficients on DOM and bacteria. In situations where the contaminant is released in the presence of DOM and bacteria in dual-porosity media, the early breakthrough and tailing occur due to the colloidal facilitation and presence of immobile regions.     

Transport of biocolloids in water saturated columns packed with sand: Effect of grain size and pore water velocity

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the combined effects of grain size and pore water velocity on the transport in water saturated porous media of three waterborne fecal indicator organisms (Escherichia coli, MS2, and ΦX174) in laboratory-scale columns packed with clean quartz sand. Three different grain sizes and three pore water velocities were examined and the attachment behavior of Escherichia coli, MS2, and ΦX174 onto quartz sand was evaluated. The mass recoveries of the biocolloids examined were shown to be highest for Escherichia coli and lowest for MS2. However, no obvious relationships between mass recoveries and water velocity or grain size could be established from the experimental results. The observed mean dispersivity values for each sand grain size were smaller for bacteria than coliphages, but higher for MS2 than ΦX174. The single collector removal and collision efficiencies were quantified using the classical colloid filtration theory. Furthermore, theoretical collision efficiencies were estimated only for E. coli by the Interaction-Force-Boundary-Layer, and Maxwell approximations. Better agreement between the experimental and Maxwell theoretical collision efficiencies were observed.     

Transport of Escherichia coli bacteria through laboratory columns of glacial-outwash sediments: estimating model parameter values based on sediment characteristics

Bacterial transport through cores of intact, glacial-outwash aquifer sediment was investigated with the overall goal of better understanding bacterial transport and developing a predictive capability based on the sediment characteristics. Variability was great among the cores. Normalized maximum bacterial-effluent concentrations ranged from 5.4x10(-7) to 0.36 and effluent recovery ranged from 2.9x10(-4) to 59%. Bacterial breakthrough was generally rapid with a sharp peak occurring nearly twice as early as the bromide peak. Bacterial breakthrough exhibited a long tail of relatively constant concentration averaging three orders of magnitude less than the peak concentration for up to 32 pore volumes. The tails were consistent with non-equilibrium detachment, corroborated by the results of flow interruption experiments. Bacterial breakthrough was accurately simulated with a transport model incorporating advection, dispersion and first-order non-equilibrium attachment/detachment. Relationships among bacterial transport and sediment characteristics were explored with multiple regression analyses. These analyses indicated that for these cores and experimental conditions, easily-measurable sediment characteristics--median grain size, degree of sorting, organic-matter content and hydraulic conductivity--accounted for 66%, 61% and 89% of the core-to-core variability in the bacterial effective porosity, dispersivity and attachment-rate coefficient, respectively. In addition, the bacterial effective porosity, median grain size and organic-matter content accounted for 76% of the inter-core variability in the detachment-rate coefficient. The resulting regression equations allow prediction of bacterial transport based on sediment characteristics and are a possible alternative to using colloid-filtration theory. Colloid-filtration theory, used without the benefit of running bacterial transport experiments, did not as accurately replicate the observed variability in the attachment-rate coefficient.     

A multi-directional tracer test in the fractured Chalk aquifer of E. Yorkshire, UK

A multi-borehole radial tracer test has been conducted in the confined Chalk aquifer of E. Yorkshire, UK. Three different tracer dyes were injected into three injection boreholes and a central borehole, 25 m from the injection boreholes, was pumped at 330 m(3)/d for 8 days. The breakthrough curves show that initial breakthrough and peak times were fairly similar for all dyes but that recoveries varied markedly from 9 to 57%. The breakthrough curves show a steep rise to a peak and long tail, typical of dual porosity aquifers. The breakthrough curves were simulated using a 1D dual porosity model. Model input parameters were constrained to acceptable ranges determined from estimations of matrix porosity and diffusion coefficient, fracture spacing, initial breakthrough times and bulk transmissivity of the aquifer. The model gave equivalent hydraulic apertures for fractures in the range 363-384 microm, dispersivities of 1 to 5 m and matrix block sizes of 6 to 9 cm. Modelling suggests that matrix block size is the primary controlling parameter for solute transport in the aquifer, particularly for recovery. The observed breakthrough curves suggest results from single injection-borehole tracer tests in the Chalk may give initial breakthrough and peak times reasonably representative of the aquifer but that recovery is highly variable and sensitive to injection and abstraction borehole location. Consideration of aquifer heterogeneity suggests that high recoveries may be indicative of a high flow pathway adjacent, but not necessarily connected, to the injection and abstraction boreholes whereas low recoveries may indicate more distributed flow through many fractures of similar aperture.     

Bacteriophage transport through a fining-upwards sedimentary sequence: laboratory experiments and simulation

A column containing four concentric layers of progressively finer-grained glass beads (graded column) was used to study the transport of the bacteriophage T7 in water flowing parallel to layering through a fining-upwards (FU) sedimentary structure. By passing a pulse of T7, and a conservative solute tracer upwards through a column packed with a single bead size (uniform column), the capacity of each bead type to attenuate the bacteriophage was determined. Solute and bacteriophage responses were modelled using an analytical solution to the advection-dispersion equation, with first-order kinetic deposition simulating bacteriophage attenuation. Resulting deposition constants for different flow velocities indicated that filtration theory-determined values differed from experimentally determined values by less than 10%. In contrast, the responses of solute and bacteriophage tracers passing upwards through graded columns could not be reproduced with a single analytical solution. However, a flux-weighted summation of four one-dimensional advective-dispersive analytical terms approximated solute breakthrough curves. The prolonged tailing observed in the resulting curve resembled that typically generated from field-based tracer test data, reflecting the potential importance of textural heterogeneity in the transport of dissolved substances in groundwater. Moreover, bacteriophage deposition terms, determined from filtration theory, reproduced the T7 breakthrough curve once desorption and inactivation on grain surfaces were incorporated. To evaluate the effect of FU sequences on mass transport processes in more detail, bacteriophage passage through sequences resembling those sampled from a FU bed in a fluvioglacial gravel pit were carried out using an analogous approach to that employed in the laboratory. Both solute and bacteriophage breakthrough responses resembled those generated from field-based test data and in the graded column experiments. Comparisons with the results of simulations using averaged hydraulic conductivities show that simulations employing averaged parameters overestimate bacteriophage travel times and underestimate masses recovered and peak concentrations.     

Modelling of atrazine transport in the presence of surfactants

Laboratory experiments were conducted to examine the effect of detergents on transport of atrazine [2-chloro-4-(ethylamino)-6-(isopropylamino)-s-triazine] through loam and sandy loam soils under saturation conditions. The Convection Dispersion Equation (CDE) was used to model and quantify the effects of detergents on atrazine model parameters: the retardation factor (R), pore velocity (v) and dispersion coefficient (D). The transport parameters were estimated using moment technique and partition coefficient obtained from batch experiments and compared with best-fitted parameters, R and D, keeping pore velocity constant. Results indicated the CDE model was not successful in predicting atrazine transport in the presence of surfactants at high concentrations. In the case of anionic surfactant with Elora loam, the average predicted R and D from moment technique of 3.4 and 11.1 cm2/h, respectively were significantly different than fitted parameters (R = 39 and D = 227 cm2/h). The poor performance of CDE in the presence of surfactants results from physiochemical changes in herbicide solubility and retention to the soil matrix rather than changes in soil hydraulic properties since the predicted pore water velocities from moment technique were similar to those measured during leaching experiments. Nevertheless, BTC analysis with CDE showed that land application of anionic surfactant (sulphonic) significantly increased R and D and decrease v for both soils. Addition of sulphonic increased R of atrazine by 12 and 26 folds for loam and sandy loam soils, respectively. On the other hand non-ionic surfactants seemed to decrease R, especially in sandy loam soil, thus facilitating atrazine leaching through soil. Non-equilibrium conditions seemed to govern atrazine transport in the presence of surfactants; double peaks in breakthrough curves were observed, indicating a need for mathematical models to account for such phenomena. Atrazine dispersion and tailing seemed to be higher through Elora loam compared to Caledon sandy loam due to higher aggregation of the Elora soil.     

Numerical modeling of humic colloid borne americium (III) migration in column experiments using the transport/speciation code K1D and the KICAM model

The humic colloid borne Am(III) transport was investigated in column experiments for Gorleben groundwater/sand systems. It was found that the interaction of Am with humic colloids is kinetically controlled, which strongly influences the migration behavior of Am(III). These kinetic effects have to be taken into account for transport/speciation modeling. The kinetically controlled availability model (KICAM) was developed to describe actinide sorption and transport in laboratory batch and column experiments. Application of the KICAM requires a chemical transport/speciation code, which simultaneously models both kinetically controlled processes and equilibrium reactions. Therefore, the code K1D was developed as a flexible research code that allows the inclusion of kinetic data in addition to transport features and chemical equilibrium. This paper presents the verification of K1D and its application to model column experiments investigating unimpeded humic colloid borne Am migration. Parmeters for reactive transport simulations were determined for a Gorleben groundwater system of high humic colloid concentration (GoHy 2227). A single set of parameters was used to model a series of column experiments. Model results correspond well to experimental data for the unretarded humic borne Am breakthrough.     

An interpretation of potential scale dependence of the effective matrix diffusion coefficient

Matrix diffusion is an important process for solute transport in fractured rock, and the matrix diffusion coefficient is a key parameter for describing this process. Previous studies have indicated that the effective matrix diffusion coefficient values, obtained from a large number of field tracer tests, are enhanced in comparison with local values and may increase with test scale. In this study, we have performed numerical experiments to investigate potential mechanisms behind possible scale-dependent behavior. The focus of the experiments is on solute transport in flow paths having geometries consistent with percolation theories and characterized by multiple local flow loops formed mainly by small-scale fractures. The water velocity distribution through a flow path was determined using discrete fracture network flow simulations, and solute transport was calculated using a previously derived impulse-response function and a particle-tracking scheme. Values for effective (or up-scaled) transport parameters were obtained by matching breakthrough curves from numerical experiments with an analytical solution for solute transport along a single fracture. Results indicate that a combination of local flow loops and the associated matrix diffusion process, together with scaling properties in flow path geometry, seems to be an important mechanism causing the observed scale dependence of the effective matrix diffusion coefficient (at a range of scales).     

Preliminary 3-D site-scale studies of radioactive colloid transport in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain,Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is actively investigating the technical feasibility of permanent disposal of high-level nuclear waste in a repository to be situated in the unsaturated zone (UZ) at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada. In this study we investigate, by means of numerical simulation, the transport of radioactive colloids under ambient conditions from the potential repository horizon to the water table. The site hydrology and the effects of the spatial distribution of hydraulic and transport properties in the Yucca Mountain subsurface are considered. The study of migration and retardation of colloids accounts for the complex processes in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain, and includes advection, diffusion, hydrodynamic dispersion, kinetic colloid filtration, colloid straining, and radioactive decay. The results of the study indicate that the most important factors affecting colloid transport are the subsurface geology and site hydrology, i.e., the presence of faults (they dominate and control transport), fractures (the main migration pathways), and the relative distribution of zeolitic and vitric tuffs. The transport of colloids is strongly influenced by their size (as it affects diffusion into the matrix, straining at hydrogeologic unit interfaces, and transport velocity) and by the parameters of the kinetic-filtration model used for the simulations. Arrival times at the water table decrease with an increasing colloid size because of smaller diffusion, increased straining, and higher transport velocities. The importance of diffusion as a retardation mechanism increases with a decreasing colloid size, but appears to be minimal in large colloids.     

Applied tracer tests in fractured rock: Can we predict natural gradient solute transport more accurately than fracture and matrix parameters?

Applied tracer tests provide a means to estimate aquifer parameters in fractured rock. The traditional approach to analysing these tests has been using a single fracture model to find the parameter values that generate the best fit to the measured breakthrough curve. In many cases, the ultimate aim is to predict solute transport under the natural gradient. Usually, no confidence limits are placed on parameter values and the impact of parameter errors on predictions of solute transport is not discussed. The assumption inherent in this approach is that the parameters determined under forced conditions will enable prediction of solute transport under the natural gradient. This paper considers the parameter and prediction uncertainty that might arise from analysis of breakthrough curves obtained from forced gradient applied tracer tests. By adding noise to an exact solution for transport in a single fracture in a porous matrix we create multiple realisations of an initial breakthrough curve. A least squares fitting routine is used to obtain a fit to each realisation, yielding a range of parameter values rather than a single set of absolute values. The suite of parameters is then used to make predictions of solute transport under lower hydraulic gradients and the uncertainty of estimated parameters and subsequent predictions of solute transport is compared. The results of this study show that predictions of breakthrough curve characteristics (first inflection point time, peak arrival time and peak concentration) for groundwater flow speeds with orders of magnitude smaller than that at which a test is conducted can sometimes be determined even more accurately than the fracture and matrix parameters.