THE CENTRAL ARIZONA WATER CONTROL STUDY: A COMPARISON OF ALTERNATE PLANS USING CONCORDANCE ANALYSIS AND MULTI-DIMENSION SCALING1

ABSTRACT The Central Arizona Water Control Study (CAWCS) was initiated by the Bureau of Reclamation in 1978. The study attempted to identify and evaluate alternate water management schemes for Central Arizona. By 1981 a set of seven plans had been developed and for each an assessment on a number of economic, environmental, and social factors had been undertaken. This paper offers a formal procedure, using concordance analysis and multi-dimension scaling, to compare alternate plans using multiple factors in order to produce a classification of the attractiveness of the alternatives. Empirical data for the CAWCS are used to clarify the procedure. The results of the formal analysis are compared to those produced by the CAWCS. A critique of the formal procedure is offered, and it is suggested that it may have utility to assist in the collection of data as well as in the search for a best plan. The procedure allows a number of different types of sensitivity tests to be conducted.     

EVALUATION OF WATER QUALITY AND MONITORING IN THE ST. LUCIE ESTUARY,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: The St. Lucie River and its tributaries form a major estuarine system on the southeast coast of Florida. This system is strongly affected by anthropogenic influences, including controlled releases of freshwater from Lake Okeechobee through the St. Lucie Canal and an extensive artificial drainage and irrigation system in the watershed. In the present study, three years of biweekly water quality monitoring data from the estuary were examined. The major stresses to the system stem from high variability of the salinity, frequent low dissolved oxygen (DO) events, and light limitation due to high levels of humic substances brought into the system with the fresh water. Nutrient levels also are high. Management goals for the system, including improvement of DO and water clarity, will require reduction in quantity and variability of freshwater releases.     

PROCEDURES FOR THE EVALUATION OF ENGINEERING ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a method of analyzing the nonquantifiable parameters which should be considered in the evaluation of engineering alternatives. The nonquantifiable parameters can include environmental impact, feasibility of implementation, and performance. The method considers rating all the alternatives on the basis of a set of criteria which reflect these parameters. A procedure is discussed for obtaining review and guidance in the evaluation of engineering alternatives from the local elected officials or governing bodies and for obtaining the views and desires of the local communities. This is achieved through the formation of project review committees and an evaluation procedure which allows for the technical rating of alternatives by the engineer and the weighing of the evaluation criteria by the political and social groups. With the growing environmental concern and the high cost of engineering projects, the involvement of the public during the evaluation of engineering projects is becoming increasingly important to the final success of the project.     

INVESTIGATION OF TURBIDITY MAXIMUM IN A MESOTIDAL ESTUARY,TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: To comprehend the distributions of salinity, temperature, and suspended sediment in the Danshuei River estuary in Taiwan, monthly field surveys were conducted in 2003. These included several high and low slackwater surveys and intensive surveys. The results show that the Danshuei River estuary is predominately a partially mixed estuary. The highest concentration of suspended sediment is typically observed at the Chung‐Hsin Bridge, the most upstream sampling station. The suspended sediment concentration exhibits a general decreasing trend in the downstream direction. It may be concluded that the sediments mostly come from the upstream reach. A locally high concentration of suspended sediment is found at the Kuan‐Du station because of the local deep channel bathymetry and two‐layered estuarine circulation. A vertical two‐dimensional hydrodynamic and sediment transport model is applied to investigate the tidally averaged salinity distribution, residual circulation, and suspended sediment concentration. The modeling results reveal that, under the Q₇₅ flow condition (i.e., low flow), a turbidity maximum occurs at the Kuan‐Du station due to the strong estuarine circulation. The model simulation with a much higher river flow condition results in a weaker residual circulation and weaker turbidity maximum.     

WATER CONSERVATION KITS: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF A CONSERVATION POLICY1

ABSTRACT: The effect on water usage of installing water conservation kits in the city of Oxnard, California, is statistically evaluated. Using binary multiple regression analysis on a large sample of residential units, water consumption was compared before and after receipt of the kit. For this sample, installers reduced water consumption by 4.2 percent each billing period. Income (wealth) and household size elasticities are reported along with the Characteristics of the installing households.     

EVALUATING POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF INSECTICIDE APPLICATIONS IN A BOLL WEEVIL ERADICATION PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: Concerns have been expressed about the potential insecticide contamination of regional water resources from a boll weevil eradication program in Oklahoma. A mathematical model and geographic information system techniques were utilized to evaluate the potential of insecticide leaching and runoff from a major proposed program area in the state. Different but equally likely weather patterns were generated, and potential insecticide losses associated with each pattern were predicted. Soil types and their locations within cotton areas were identified, and potential chemical losses from each soil were delineated. Model simulations indicated that azinphos-methyl and diflubenzuron could leach from some porous soils and that all insecticides suggested for use in the program could be lost to runoff. The predicted chemical movements with runoff were significantly higher on irrigated land than from non-irrigated land. Malathion demonstrated no leaching and low potential of runoff losses among the insecticides evaluated.     

MULTIPLE CRITERIA SCREENING OF A LARGE WATER POLICY SUBSET SELECTION PROBLEM1

ABSTRACT: A new screening approach is applied to a large‐scale multiple criteria water management problem to remove actions that cannot possibly be in the best subset. An inherent advantage of the approach is its ability to identify inferior actions by examining them individually, rather than within subsets. In a case study involving the selection of actions to address high water levels in the Great Lakes‐St. Lawrence Basin, two statistical indicators, the mode and the mean, are used to aggregate the opinions of experts and representatives of interest groups on the impacts of actions according to various criteria. Application of the screening approach shows that some of the proposed actions can be removed as they can never be in the optimal subset, thereby reducing the size of the problem.     

THE COSTS OF CONFLICTING ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY: A CASE STUDY IN MILWAUKEE1

ABSTRACT: The history of the Milwaukee water pollution abatement program is examined as a case study to investigate the costs of conflicting environmental policy. The recent U.S. Supreme Court decision concerning the Milwaukee case is described as a milestone in U.S. water pollution abatement policy which will help preclude the type of environmental policy conflict which has been found to be so costly to Milwaukee. The implications to U.S. water pollution abatement policy of the 13-year history of conflict in Milwaukee are presented.     

PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS IN WATER QUALITY EVALUATION1

ABSTRACT: A Visual Perception Test, consisting of photographic slides of water sites, was designed to examine laymen's water quality perceptions. The slides were taken at five water sites where the level of visual pollution was artifically altered by the investigator. Analysis of variance indicated that the water sites were evaluated differently for each of five pollution levels. Increases in water discoloration and the quality of litter were viewed as increases in level of pollution. Laymen not only evaluated visually polluted sites lower for uses such as picnicking, but they also evaluated the quality of the actual water lower. Stepwise multiple regression indicated that a combination of water color, scenic beauty appreciation, quality of the surrounding environment and industry as a pollution source explained 73 percent of the variance in predicting Overall Pollution. Application of factor analysis simplified the variables to an Overall Pollution Factor and a Boating Use Factor.     

AGRICULTURAL NITRATE CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER: AN EVALUATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY1

ABSTRACT: The contribution of agriculture to nitrate pollution of 8Urface and ground water is a growing concern throughout the world. The objective of this article is to evaluate the current environmental policy governing nitrate contamination of ground water in the South Platte alluvial aquifer. In particular, the “best management practice” approach is assessed in its relationship to optimal policy design. First, the current physical environmental problem and existing institutional arrangements are described. Second, legal and economic criteria are brought to bear on the question of appropriate policy design. Finally, the strengths and weaknesses of the existing policy are evaluated in this context and changes in policy that would increase effectiveness are recommended. Considerable justification is found for state-initiated control because victims of ground water pollution are dispersed and risk assessment is technically demanding. However, ex post elements of existing policy must be improved, perhaps through targeting and some devolution in monitoring and enforcement responsibilities.     

ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF RIPARIAN BUFFERS IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: This study determines the most cost effective spatial pattern of farming systems for improving water quality and evaluates the economic value of riparian buffers in reducing agricultural nonpoint source pollution in a Midwestern agricultural watershed. Economic and water quality impacts of alternative farming systems are evaluated using the CARE and SWAT models, respectively. The water quality benefits of riparian buffers are estimated by combining experimental data and simulated water quality impacts of fanning systems obtained using SWAT. The net economic value of riparian buffers in improving water quality is estimated by total watershed net return with riparian buffers minus total watershed net return without riparian buffers minus the opportunity cost of riparian buffers. Exclusive of maintenance cost, the net economic value of riparian buffers in reducing atrazine concentration from 45 to 24 ppb is $612,117 and the savings in government cost is $631,710. Results strongly support efforts that encourage farmers to develop or maintain riparian buffers adjacent to streams.     

THE USE OF BIOLOGICAL CRITERIA IN ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY1

ABSTRACT: The hypothesis of this paper is that regulatory systems for the control of effluent released to the environment can be, if improperly designed, inadequate for both the establishment of effective pollution control policy and the assessment of the biological significance of violations. This inadequacy may stem from several factors: first, the use of single point standards which delineate the boundary between legally acceptable and unacceptable pollutant discharges; and second, the existence of significant weaknesses in the frequency and design of monitoring programs. In order to be effective, pollution standards must reflect the impact of pollutants on the ecosystem. To achieve this goal, three critical pieces of information are required: measurement of ambient levels of released pollutants, frequency distributions derived from these data, and estimates of biological damage functions. Illustrating the above three requirements with data drawn from research in British Columbia, the authors recommended a restructuring of environmental policy to provide regulatory agencies with an effective mechanism for the analysis and control of environmental degradation.     

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS IN PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: By employing a set of criteria for classifying the capabilities of time series models, recent developments in time series analysis are assessed and put into proper perspective. In particular, the inherent attributes of a wide variety of time series models and modeling procedures presented by the authors of the 18 papers contained in this volume are clearly pointed out. Additionally, it is explained how these models can address many of the time series problems encountered when modeling hydrologic, water quality and other kinds of time series. For instance, families of time series models are now available for modeling series which may contain nonlinearities or may follow nonGaussian distributions. Based upon a sound physical understanding of a problem and results from exploratory data analyses, the most appropriate model to fit to a data set can be found during confirmatory data analyses by following the identification, estimation and diagnostic check stages of model construction. Promising future research projects for developing flexible classes of time series models for use in water resources applications are suggested.     

SYSTEMATIC APPROACHES TO ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT: AN EVALUATION1

ABSTRACT. Increased public awareness of the environmental effects of large-scale projects and concomittant public participation in the environmental impact assessment process demand that assessment methods and procedures fulfill a wide range of desirable characteristics. These are developed and offered as specific criteria against which currently proposed environmental assessment procedures should be judged. Such procedures as checklists, matrices, networks (stepped matrices), overlays, linear vector analyses, and nonlinear evaluation systems are presented and judged in light of the proposed criteria. It is concluded that the use of checklists, the most common assessment format used to date, does not constitute a viable assessment procedure. Use of the matrix or stepped matrix techniques in conjunction with the linear vector or nonlinear evaluation systems, with the latter modified slightly, is seen as an approach to environmental assessment that will achieve most of the established criteria.     

DATA ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES IN LAKE ERIE1

ABSTRACT: A comprehensive data analysis study is carried out for detecting trends and other statistical characteristics in water quality time series measured in Long Point Bay, Lake Erie. In order to glean an optimal amount of useful information from the available data, the exploratory and confirmatory data anslysis stages are adhered to. To test a range of hypotheses regarding the statistical properties of the time series, a wide variety of both parametric and nonparametric techniques are employed. A particularly useful nonparametric method for discovering trends is the seasonal Mann-Kendall test.     

SUITABILITY ANALYSIS FOR SELECTION OF PIPELINE ROUTES1

ABSTRACT: A brief review of environmental assessment methods is presented as an introduction to a study of environmental management problems in a coastal area of southern Louisiana. The assessment method used in the study is called suitability analysis and involves the use of matrices. The matrix approach is simply a convenient method for organizing all factors representing environmental concerns in a region. The matrices proved to be very useful in defining the present state of an environmental regime and in maintaining an inventory of regional features and potential impacts. The method is described in detail and illustrated by evaluating the potential impacts of a major pipeline construction job in the area. Of major concern is the potential impact on the water resources of the region. Disruption to the natural drainage could be detremental, and affect the suitability of available water for a given use. Limitations of the method are discussed and potential areas for improvement and research are noted. Coupled with an economic assessment, the suitability analysis method should prove beneficial for selecting development sites for industries, residential areas, and other construction activities.     

LOCATION OF MUNICIPAL WELL FIELDS IN AN ENVIRONMENTALLY SENSITIVE REGION1

ABSTRACT: A visual selection technique can be utilized to locate potential well field sites prior to on-site testing. The technique is based upon an understanding of the regional hydrology and an appreciation for development goals such as the identification of high-yield and low-impact locations. Although the uniqueness of Pasco, Pinellas, and Hillsborough Counties in Western Florida has been incorporated into the current application, the methodology, with modifications, is transferable to other geographic regions. Overlays of each criterion used in site selection are combined to form a regional composite showing favorable site locations and further serve a useful communications role as visual aids during public presentation. Implications of direct and indirect cost savings to the public are obtained when the methodology is applied to the location of municipal well fields.     

ORGANIZATIONAL EVALUATION OF INDUSTRIAL WATER POLLUTION CONTROL IN THE NEW YORK REGION1

ABSTRACT: Non-technological factors related to the behavior and characteristics of organizations involved in pollution control are explored here as to their importance as determinants or indicators of the level of pollution control effectiveness. Methods of evaluating the existing level of effectiveness are developed and tested using the response of a selected set of industrial establishments to state water pollution abatement action in the New York Region from 1966 to 1971. The compliance of 209 manufacturing establishments to state abatement orders in the New York Region is evaluated with respect to selected organizational and industrial characteristics and characteristics of the firms'socioeconomic environment. The influence of state policies arid programs is also discussed. It was found that the degree of compliance to state abatement action by industry in the Region is positively related to organization size, the extent of waste generation, the wealth and size of the town in which the firm is located, and the availability of waste treatment facilities in the town. The age of the firm was not related to compliance. The structure of state abatement scheduling also influences the degree of compliance. The methods of analysis used here provide a basis for a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of pollution control as an alternative to the case by case approach that is currently being used.     

DEVELOPMENT OF A NONDEGRAIATION POLICY FOR HIGH QUALITY WATERS1

ABSTRACT: The development of a nondegradation policy for high quality waters is a complex and often controversial process. This paper discusses the development of a nondegradation policy for two components of the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System. Water quality in these reaches of the Delaware River is threatened by rapid growth and development and the cumulative impacts from numerous wastewater discharges and nonpoint sources of pollution. The Delaware River Basin Commission, with assistance from its member states and the National Park Service, conducted a highly public, six-year planning process to develop a nondegradation policy that protected existing water quality without impinging upon local and state economic development objectives. The resulting non-degradation policy includes such features as numeric definitions of existing water quality and measurable change; stringent point source requirements; nonpoint source requirements including watershed planning requirements; and other water quality management policies.