MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUES FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Six applications of multiobjective decision making techniques for finding optimal or satisfying operating rules for reservoir systems are presented. The examples include situations with hydropower vs. water supply (for irrigation), flood control vs. low flow augmentation, selection of an operating rule, low-flow vs. reliability, and low flow and recreation vs. water quality. The techniques applied include the constraint method, compromise programming, goal programming, Tchebycheff approach (max-mm), Consensus, and ELECTRE I and II.     

RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT RULES DERWED WITH THE AID OF MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUES1

ABSTRACT: The determination of optimum reservoir operating rules for reservoirs with multiple conflicting objectives is still a difficult task - despite many publications in this field. In this paper a three-step Multi Objective Decision Making (MODM) method is presented, the emphasis of which is placed on the necessity to make the work easy for the decision maker, which many MODM techniques fail to achieve. The method is applied to the development of a compromise optimum operating rule for a multi-purpose reservoir. In the first step of the method stochastic DP is chosen which is combined with the “weighting method” allowing combination of various objectives into one objective function. By systematically varying the weights for the objectives a large number of pareto optimum reservoir operating rules is generated. In the second step of the method the performance of all these operating rules is tested with the aid of a model simulating reservoir operation. The results are statistically analyzed and the reliabilities for attaining the various objectives are computed. The third step of the model applies another MODM technique which allows the decision maker - in a computer dialog - to select his optimum reservoir operating rule from the large number of pareto optimum solutions generated in step 1. Here he can specify his preferences for the various objectives. For this purpose two alternative MODM techniques are offered: Compromise Programming and the SEMOPS method. Their performance is shown along with the generation and selection of operating rules for the multi-objective Wupper reservoir system in Germany.     

MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING IN WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Recent developments in multiple objective decision making methods presented in the upcoming sequence of research papers are evaluated and compared with respect to their usefulness in addressing challenging problems in water resources management. Because many of the decision making techniques originated in the field of operational research, the historical evolution of this field is outlined and the current need for developing a wide range of techniques for employment in strategic decision making is pointed out. Informative attributes for classifying decision making techniques are given to allow a practitioner to select decision aids that can best model the key characteristics of the particular problems under study. By systematically applying a wide variety of multiple objective decision making techniques to many different kinds of water resources problems, the authors of the papers clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing these methods for assisting in making both tactical and strategic decisions in water resources management.     

SIMULATION AS AN AID TO DECISION MAKING IN A WATER UTILITY1

ABSTRACT. Middle and high management levels within water utilities would find their decision making activities greatly enhanced if provided with a set of techniques having the following characteristics: (1) the ability to procure information and knowledge about real-life systems, (2) the ability to promote analysis of the real life system and (3) the capacity to gauge the impact of decisions. A model/simulation is presented, having the capability to mime operational aspects of water supply systems. The simulation produces time series of what are considered relevant operational variables. These series are amenable to analysis of both static and dynamic effects of alternative policies, changing environmental conditions and varying parametric specifications. Because of its modular structure and the ad hoc programming language utilized, it offers great flexibility. The model/simulation allows extensions, deletions and modifications without consequent reformulation or extensive reprogramming. It performs a number of statistical tests useful for its own verification and validation. Also available are a suggested methodology and procedures for model use, possible difficulties with data gathering and operation, plus an idea of what cannot be done with the currently extant model version.     

DERIVING THE NONLINEAR RISK-BENEFIT ALGORITHM FOR RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: The Nonlinear Risk-Benefit (NRB) Algorithm includes risk as one of the objectives in a multiple-objective optimization problem. The NRB Algorithm is derived by extending the Surrogate Worth Trade-Off method to quadratic programming. This category of problem is common in water resources planning and design, especially multipurpose reservoir systems. Consequently, an example is given using the algorithm for optimally operating a multipurpose reservoir.     

REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY PLANNING BY INTERACTIVE SYSTEMS ANALYSIS1

Abstract: This paper describes an interactive data and model generator that is intended to bridge the gap between the water resource enginner and planner and the mathematical progrmming systems approach to regional water supply planning. The optimization objective is to minimize total annual cost with respect to capital investment and operation and maintenance costs. The matrix generator formulates the necessary hydrologic, demographic and programming problem for system optimization. The interactive program guides the user through the input and optimization segments, totally eliminates the chore of manually structuring the model matrix aides in eliminating errors, and allows use by planners without skill in mathematical programming.     

COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC AND DETERMINISTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR RESERVOIR OPERATING RULE GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two dynamic programming models — one deterministic and one stochastic — that may be used to generate reservoir operating rules are compared. The deterministic model (DPR) consists of an algorithm that cycles through three components: a dynamic program, a regression analysis, and a simulation. In this model, the correlation between the general operating rules, defined by the regression analysis and evaluated in the simulation, and the optimal deterministic operation defined by the dynamic program is increased through an iterative process. The stochastic dynamic program (SDP) describes streamflows with a discrete lag-one Markov process. To test the usefulness of both models in generating reservoir operating rules, real-time reservoir operation simulation models are constructed for three hydrologically different sites. The rules generated by DPR and SDP are then applied in the operation simulation model and their performance is evaluated. For the test cases, the DPR generated rules are more effective in the operation of medium to very large reservoirs and the SDP generated rules are more effective for the operation of small reservoirs.     

MULTIPLE CRITERIA ANALYSIS FOR WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN THE NITRA BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the implementation of one element of a decision support system (DSS) for regional water quality management, applied to the Nitra River Basin in Slovakia. A model-based, aspiration-led methodology for multicriteria decision support has been used for the study. Several reusable, modular software tools have been developed and implemented: a problem-specific generator to produce the core part of the mathematical programming model, tools for the generation and interactive modification of multicriteria problems, and a solver for the resulting mixed-integer optimization problem. Provided in the paper are the following: a complete formulation of the mathematical model (including the imbedded water quality model), a summary of the aspiration-reservation-led multiple criteria optimization approach applied to decision support, and an overview of results that illustrate the applied approach and provide some interesting insights to the case study.     

PATTERN OF GROUND-WATER LEVEL DECLINE IN THE HIGH PLAINS AQUIFER NEBRASKA1

ABSTRACT: Ground-water level decline patterns in parts of Nebraska conform to the circular island concept of Bredehoeft et al. (1982), which indicates how water is derived by wells developed in a circular island. If elongated, the center of the island corresponds to a regional ground-water divide while the shoreline corresponds to a regional river. In both versions, ground-water table elevation is a function of recharge and transmissivity. A dynamic equilibrium exists such that the gradient of the water table will convey all recharge to discharge areas. Withdrawals of ground water result initially in mining, with a new equilibrium attained when pumping equals capture. During early development, capture is an important source of water in discharge areas, while mining is more significant in recharge areas. The pattern observed in many areas shows the greatest ground-water level decline in the vicinity of ground-water divides and the steepest gradient near regional rivers. A similar pattern has been observed adjacent to the Arkansas River in south-central Kansas. Similar decline patterns can be modeled for a hypothetical ground-water basin. This is of major importance to water-resource managers because it dictates that management programs be applied to the entire hydrologic system.     

DEVELOPING AND IMPLEMENTING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS: A CRITIQUE AND A CHALLENGE1

ABSTRACT: Computer-based models together with their interactive interfaces are typically called decision support systems. DSSs are interactive computer-based information providers. The common objective of all DSSs, regardless of the frameworks, methodologies, or techniques used, is to provide timely information that supports human decision makers - at whatever level of decision making. The informational needs of the decision making process are the key considerations that motivate the development of DSSs. The growth of DSS development and use has been substantial. In spite of this impressive growth, computer-aided decision support systems can still be improved and made more useful to those they are intended to support. Researchers and practitioners, and indeed the computer industry, continue to identify ways of doing this. This paper reviews some of these needs and opportunities by focusing on the process of successful DDS development and implementation. The paper outlines an approach and some guidelines for developing DSSs. The approach emphasizes and requires considerable interaction between the DSS developers (analysts) and the DSS users (decision makers). This interaction and feedback is required throughout the entire DSS building, testing and evaluation (debugging), and implementation processes. The paper concludes by identifying some research needs and opportunities affecting DSS development and effective use.     

EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION OF MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MODELS FOR APPLICATION TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A research project was undertaken for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to determine the relative utility and effectiveness of four well-known multicriteria decision making (MCDM) models for applications in realistic water resources planning settings. A series of experiments was devised to examine the impact of rating and ranking procedures on the decision making behavior of users (e.g., planners, managers, analysts, etc.) when faced with situations involving multiple evaluation criteria and numerous alternative planning projects. The four MCDM models tested were MATS-PC, EXPERT CHOICE, ARIADNE, and ELECTRE. Two groups of analysts and decision makers were tested. One group consisted of experienced U.S. Army Corps planners, while the other was comprised of graduate students. Based on a series of nonparametric statistical tests, the results identified EXPERT CHOICE as the preferred MCDM model by both groups based largely on ease of use and understandability. ARIADNE fostered the largest degree of agreement within and among the two groups of individuals tested. The tests also lend support to the claim that rankings are not affected significantly by the choice of decision maker (i.e., who uses any of these MCDM models) or which of these four models is used.     

ANALYSIS OF FIRM WATER SUPPLY UNDER COMPLEX INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS1

River basin computer simulation studies often do not properly include the complex legal and institutional factors governing water allocation. These factors include formal water rights and informal borrowing agreements among the basin water users. An attempt has been made in this study to show that such factors can be included. We also show that an optimal, integrated approach to reservoir operations in a river basin can do much to alleviate the burden of new demands placed on available water resources. The procurement of a firm water supply for a proposed coal fired power plant is analyzed as a case study. An efficient river basin simulation model is used to determine the viability of a scheme for providing an annual firm water supply to the plant, with consideration of the existing water storage and demands within the basin. Given the hydrologic sequence considered, the model results show that the proposed strategy is viable in that the required firm water supply can be realized without causing harm to decreed water users in the basin. However, integrated diversion and reservoir operations are required to assure a desirable uniform rate of delivery of reusable effluent to the power plant.     

RESERVOIR OPERATION ANI EVALUATION OF DOWNSTREAM FLOW AUGMENTATION1

ABSTRACT: Operation of a storage‐based reservoir modifies the downstream flow usually to a value higher than that of natural flow in dry season. This could be important for irrigation, water supply, or power production as it is like an additional downstream benefit without any additional investment. This study addresses the operation of two proposed reservoirs and the downstream flow augmentation at an irrigation project located at the outlet of the Gandaki River basin in Nepal. The optimal operating policies of the reservoirs were determined using a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model considering the maximization of power production. The modified flows downstream of the reservoirs were simulated by a simulation model using the optimal operating policy (for power maximization) and a synthetic long‐term inflow series. Comparing the existing flow (flow in river without reservoir operation) and the modified flow (flow after reservoir operation) at the irrigation project, the additional amount of flow was calculated. The reliability analysis indicated that the supply of irrigation could be increased by 25 to 100 percent of the existing supply over the dry season (January to April) with a reliability of more than 80 percent.     

INTERSTATE WATER ALLOCATION COMPACTS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES - SOME SUGGESTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Agreements between states, or compacts, provide a mechanism for resolving transboundary resource issues. The twenty-two compacts allocating the water of rivers among states in the western United States are examined to provide guidance for drafters of future compacts. The method of allocation selected for a compact reflects the state's allocation of the risk of dry years. Allocations based on models have been unsuccessful. Percentage allocations are good for fairly apportioning risk, but conflict with principles of prior appropriation. Guarantees of minimum flows should be used with great care, to avoid any state becoming a guarantor of natural phenomena over which it has no control. Disputes should be anticipated, and a dispute resolution mechanism agreed upon. Arbitration or litigation are likely to prove the most politically acceptable. Compacts should be comprehensive in scope, encompassing groundwater as well as surface use. Federal claims should also be addressed, and some form of protection from subsequent changes of federal policy should be incorporated in the agreement and its ratifying legislation.     

COMPUTER ASSISTED NEGOTIATION OF MULTIOBJECTIVE WATER RESOURCES CONFLICTS1

ABSTRACT: Since the early 1970s, a large volume of literature has accumulated related to multiobjective water resources management problems. A relatively small portion of this specifically addresses the negotiation process required when there are multiple decision makers with conflicting objectives. This paper focuses on that process and describes a computer program designed to assist such negotiation processes. This interactive computer assisted negotiation support system is called ICANS. ICANS is designed for dynamic, multi-issue, multi-party negotiation problems. Based on information provided in confidence by each party via an interactive graphical interface, the program can help determine if there exist any possible alternatives that are equivalent or even preferred to each party's decision in the absence of a negotiated agreement. If such alternatives exist, through a series of iterations in which each party's input data, assumptions, and preferences may change, ICANS can assist the parties in their search for a mutually acceptable and preferred agreement. A simple example illustrates the data requirements and the use of ICANS in negotiation experiments.     

GROUND WATER SOLUTE TRANSPORT,OPTIMAL REMEDIATION PLANNING,AND DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY1

ABSTRACT: A groundwater quality modeling advisory system has been developed for the U.S. Air Force for use in investigating remediation alternatives for the cleanup of subsurface contamination. The system is capable of accounting for uncertainty, not only in the prediction of solute transport but also in the optimization of the remediation scheme through chance constraints. The system guides users in the selection of appropriate transport models through an algorithm independently tested with machine learning codes. An application to Hill Air Force Base, Utah, is presented for which different pump-and-treat strategies are considered: the results are evaluated in terms of the cumulative distribution of the contaminant concentration for each case and the tradeoff relationship between the cost of remediation and the probability that the remediation strategy exceeds an established maximum allowable contaminant concentration.     

THE CENTRAL ARIZONA WATER CONTROL STUDY: A CASE FOR MULTIOBJECTIVE PLANNING AND PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT1

This paper describes the successful application of a multiobjective planning framework, incorporating substantial public involvement, to a major water resources decision involving intense confilcts. The study was initiated to help resolve more than a decade of controversy over a project proposed to control flooding and provide regulatory storage in the Phoenix, Arizona, area. The public was actively involved in the development of study goals and the specification of acceptable tradeoffs between multiple objectives. A wide range of structural and nonstructural alternatives was formulated and evaluated in relation to these objectives, and broad-based support was developed for a new plan. Reasons for the successful outcome are discussed, as well as implications for water resources planning under the new Federal Principles and Guidelines.