Evaluating the Outcomes of Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support

Does collaborative modeling improve water resource management outcomes? How does collaborative modeling improve these outcomes? Does it always work? Under what conditions is collaborative modeling most appropriate? With support from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources (IWR), researchers developed an evaluation framework to help address these questions. The framework links the effects of collaborative modeling on decision‐making processes with improvements in the extent to which resource management decisions, practices, and policies balance societal needs. Both practitioners' and participants' experiences suggest that under the right circumstances, collaborative modeling can generate these beneficial outcomes. Researchers developed performance measures and a survey to systematically capture these experiences and evaluate the outcomes of collaborative modeling processes. The survey can provide immediate feedback during a project to determine whether collaborative modeling is having the desired effect and whether course correction is warranted. Over the longer term, the systematic evaluation of collaborative modeling processes will help demonstrate in what ways and under what circumstances collaborative modeling is effective, inform and improve best practices, and raise awareness among water resource planners regarding the use of collaborative modeling for resource management decisions.     

Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support in Water Resources: Principles and Best Practices

Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support integrates collaborative modeling with participatory processes to inform natural resources decisions. Practitioners and advocates claim that the approach will lead to better water management, balancing interests more effectively and reducing the likelihood of costly legal delays. These claims are easy to make, but the benefits will only be realized if the process is conducted effectively. To provide guidance for how to conduct an effective collaborative modeling process, a task committee cosponsored by the Environmental Water Resources Institute (EWRI) of the American Society of Civil Engineers and by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources developed a set of Principles and Best Practices for anyone who might convene or conduct collaborative modeling processes. The guidance is intended for both conflict resolution professionals and modelers, and our goal is to integrate these two fields in a way that will improve water resources planning and decision making. Here, the set of eight principles is presented along with a selection of associated best practices, illustrated by two different case examples. The complete document is available at: http://www.computeraideddisputeresolution.us/bestpractices/ .     

HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTER PLANNING MODELS1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has broad, nationwide water resources planning and management responsibilities. In response to the needs of Corps professionals, the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) has developed and supports a family of computer programs designed to aid them in their work. These programs include catchment, channel, alluvial, and statistical process models, system operation models, plan evaluation models, and data management programs. These models individually and collectively have been used throughout the Corps in a wide range of water resources planning studies.     

INTERACTIVE DISTRIBUTED CONSERVATION PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: In the environmental and agricultural conservation planning process, more efficient and effective tools are needed for planners to assist private landowners with making wiser land use decisions. Current methods are slow, inefficient, and costly. Scientific techniques have not been fully implemented within the planning process, yet such plans are increasingly needed to meet water quality and Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) requirements. The objectives of this study are to (a) utilize the web for accessing an integrated science‐based land use decision support system; (b) link decision tools, models, and databases to the user via the web; (c) link distributed models and databases for enhanced planning efficiency; and (d) integrate the above into an easily usable and readily accessible system. The procedures resulting in the initial design involved planning expertise and focus groups' input. The system was developed in partnership with the Natural Resources Conservation Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture and several state agencies. A survey of 150 certified conservation planners, the end users, was conducted to identify the data sets and planning tools needed. Data, tools, and models then were selected and integrated into a web accessible system. Specifically, the first generation used a web interactive Geographic Information System (GIS) that overlaid onto digital orthoquads and/or soils polygons field boundaries, transportation, hydrologic features (such as drains, rivers, lakes, etc.), and high pesticide risk runoff or infiltration areas. Conservation planners found they could save time with the system. Clients could access the system quickly to help them prepare for meeting with their planner. Previously acquiring GIS maps in some cases had been a lengthy process that limited use of the information in land use decisions.     

GRAPHICALLY MODELING STAKEHOLDER VALUES1

ABSTRACT: This study was designed to give insight into the values considered in environmental policy and illustrate the respondents' personal constructions related to creating policy through the development of a graphic tool. Using both qualitative and quantitative methods, this study anonymously captured the intensity of values currently held by decision makers and tracked changes in values over time. Data were acquired through observations of and interviews with stakeholders in a five‐year wetland mitigation bank permitting process at the Galveston District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The study included public and private sector respondents in both governmental and nongovernmental roles. The resulting representations of professional and personal stakeholders' values can be used as a tool for improving information exchange in policy negotiation and provides insight into the complexity of individual and corporate perceptions of a policy issue.     

Sustainable Water Resources Management in a Conflict Resolution Framework1

Abstract: A decision support system for sustainable water resources management in a water conflict resolution framework is developed to identify and evaluate a range of acceptable alternatives for the Geum River Basin in Korea and to facilitate strategies that will result in sustainable water resource management. Working with stakeholders in a “shared vision modeling” framework, sustainable management strategies are created to illustrate system tradeoffs as well as long‐term system planning. A multi‐criterion decision‐making (MCDM) approach using subjective scales is utilized to evaluate the complex water resource allocation and management tradeoffs between stakeholders and system objectives. The procedures used in this study include the development of a “shared vision model,” a simulated decision‐making support system (as a tool for sustainable water management strategies associated with water conflicts, management options, and planning criteria), and the application of MCDM techniques for evaluating alternatives provided by the model. The research results demonstrate the utility of the sustainable water resource management model in aid of MCDM techniques in facilitating flexibility during initial stages of alternative identification and evaluation in a basin suffering from severe water conflicts.     

MAPS - A PLANNING TOOL FOR CORPS OF ENGINEERS REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY STUDIES1

ABSTRACT: A computer program (MAPS - Methodology for Areawide Planning Studies) has been developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Waterways Experiment Station to assist planners in producing a comprehensive array of alternatives without sacrificing the detail and accuracy of the analyses. MAPS is a set of computer based models which can be used to simulate the water resource alternatives and to develop planning level design and cost estimates. Two application examples are discussed. The Salinas-Monterey (California) Urban Study sought to identify and determine cost of combinations of water source, transmission, and treatment to meet an array of water needs in future years. The Nashville (Tennessee) Urban Study had similar objectives but the output was prepared on a service area basis for more than 40 such units. Using MAPS it was possible to prepare planning level design and cost estimates for a very large number of alternatives.     

INTEGRATING SOCIAL ANALYSIS INTO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING: SOME EMERGING TRENDS IN THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS1

ABSTRACT: While federal water resources laws and regulations require social analysis, no one workable formula exists for integrating it into water resources planning. Two primary problems in integrating social analysis into planning are examined; making trade-offs between policy acceptability and theoretical competence, and managing social analysis in planning. For illustration, the article builds on emerging trends within the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. It concludes by observing that creative application of social theory to policy problems along with innovative data gathering techniques are the primary routes to managing these problems.     

Federal Decentralization and Adaptive Management of Water Resources: Reservoir Reallocation by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Reservoir operations must respond to changing conditions, such as climate, water demand, regulations, and sedimentation. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) can reallocate reservoir storage to respond to such changes. We assembled and analyzed a database of reservoir reallocations implemented and proposed by the Corps. While only a small portion of total reservoir storage nationwide has been reallocated, there are substantial differences in reallocation frequency and magnitude across the nation: some Corps Districts and Divisions use reallocation while others do not, relying more on discretion and small‐scale adaptation of operations. This difference illustrates how water resource agencies like the Corps decentralize management decisions to allow responding to disparate conditions. Decentralized decision‐making provides a responsive approach to water management, while centralized and hierarchical decision‐making is a slower, more deliberative approach. Decentralized decision‐making may lead to the accumulation of short‐term, local decisions over time to the point that the system is managed differently than anticipated. Reallocation, which is a form of planned adaptive management, can be accommodating of multiple competing demands and different stakeholders, yet expensive and less temporally responsive. The challenge for any large water resource management agency is to balance between local‐level, responsive discretion vs. centralized, planned decision‐making.     

STRATEGY FOR DYNAMIC REGIONAL WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION1

ABSTRACT Water resources planning has emphasized the consideration of alternatives in the formulation of goals and objectives. With greater availability of data and projection models, optimization of plans is now much nearer to accomplishment. In contrast to these favorable aspects of planning, increased complexity of plans and large number of alternatives serving differing sets of goals have extended the time horizons from initial plan formulation to eventual implementation. In this paper a man-machine strategy is proposed to reduce the time required for decision making and conflict resolution. A panel of representatives of the decision makers, influentials and publics involved are selected and brought through a series of dynamic planning steps that simulate real time decision making. Computer interaction graphics is used to visualize the decision making process and to illustrate where and why conflict arises. A mechanism for resolution of conflict and retention of consistency in policy formulation using a cognograph is described.     

Public engagement and climate adaptation: insights from three local governments in Australia

Public participation in decision making is a central component of the planning process; however, implementing effective engagement initiatives to resolve complex planning and policy problems, such as climate change, is challenging for planners. These challenges are particularly acute in coastal communities throughout Australia, where many settlements are at risk of future climate perturbations. Using the International Association for Public Participation framework for public participation, we analyse three local government led public participation initiatives in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, Australia. Our analysis suggests there are three critical factors that can influence the level of public participation in the context of climate change adaptation: the technocratic approach to decision making; absent high order government support; and the lack of evaluation mechanisms for public participation.     

USE OF THE DELPHI METHOD IN RESOLVING COMPLEX WATER RESOURCES ISSUES1

ABSTRACT: The tri‐state river basins, shared by Georgia, Alabama, and Florida, are being modeled by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to help facilitate agreement in an acrimonious water dispute among these different state governments. Modeling of such basin reservoir operations requires parallel understanding of several river system components: hydropower production, flood control, municipal and industrial water use, navigation, and reservoir fisheries requirements. The Delphi method, using repetitive surveying of experts, was applied to determine fisheries' water and lake‐level requirements on 25 reservoirs in these interstate basins. The Delphi technique allowed the needs and requirements of fish populations to be brought into the modeling effort on equal footing with other water supply and demand components. When the subject matter is concisely defined and limited, this technique can rapidly assess expert opinion on any natural resource issue, and even move expert opinion toward greater agreement.     

POLLUTANT RUNOFF MODELS: SELECTION AND USE IN DECISION MAKING1

Models for pollutant runoff can be useful in water quality management planning if appropriately structured for the problem at hand. Accordingly, a “top-down” approach is proposed for the examination of extant pollutant runoff models. The approach consists of the identification of objectives and attributes that reflect the needs of planners and decision makers when these models are used for water quality management planning. Ideally, the attributes should concern the effect of model information on improved decision making and the cost of model application. Practical difficulties with the first attribute necessitates substitution of surrogate attributes reflecting model appropriateness, resolution, and uncertainty. Common pollutant runoff models, in particular export coefficients and hydrology-driven simulation models, are found to have serious weaknesses on some of the attribute scales. The “top-down” approach leads to a set of desirable pollutant runoff model attributes; alternate modeling techniques are thus examined in order to identify promising future directions for model development. The focus of this examination is phosphorus, due to its importance in the eutrophication of surface waters. Models for both sediment-attached and dissolved phosphorus are considered. Among the conclusions is the belief that the partial contributing area concept can yield an effective yet simple simulation despite the variable and complex nature of runoff.     

A Knowledge-Based Systems Approach to Design of Spatial Decision Support Systems for Environmental Management

/ This paper describes a framework for designing spatial decision support systems for environmental management using a knowledge-based systems approach. An architecture for knowledge-based spatial decision supportsystems (KBSDSS) is presented that integrates knowledge-based systems with geographical information systems (GIS) and other problem-solving techniques. A method based on spatial influence diagrams is developed for representation of environmental problems. The spatial influence diagram provides an interface through which knowledge-based systems techniques can be applied to build capabilities for problem formulation, automated design, and execution of a solution process. In addition to the flexibility and developmental advantages of knowledge-based systems, the KBSDSS incorporates expert knowledge to provide assistance for structuring spatial influence diagrams and executing a solution process that automatically integrates the GIS, data base, knowledge base, and different types of models. The framework is illustrated with a system, known as the Islay Land Use Decision Support System (ILUDSS), designed to assist planners in strategic planning of land use for the development of the island of Islay, off the west coast of Scotland.KEY WORDS: Geographical information systems; Spatial decision support systems; Knowledge-based systems; Spatial influence diagrams; Environmental management     

SELECTION AND SUSTAINABILITY OF LAND AND WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Most spatial decision support systems for natural resource planning and management are limited by their scenario-based (non-behavioral), deterministic (non-stochastic) structure. A spatial decision support system is developed that uses a multiple attribute decision-making model to explain how a property manager selects a land and water resource management system (LWRMS) based on its multiple, stochastic economic and environmental attributes. The decision support system assesses sustainable resource management at the property and watershed scales and identifies the most cost-effective policy for enhancing sustainable resource management. Economic attributes are determined with an economic model and environmental attributes are simulated with an environmental model. Input parameters for both models are generated with a geographic information system. The decision support system is used to rank five LWRMS for a sample of 20 farmers in Missouri's Goodwater Creek watershed and for two hypothetical watershed alliance groups. Results indicate that the average farmer and the two alliance groups would rank the five LWRMS in the same manner. From the viewpoint of the watershed alliance, the most preferred LWRMS for the average farmer in the watershed is sustainable.     

DEVELOPING AND IMPLEMENTING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS: A CRITIQUE AND A CHALLENGE1

ABSTRACT: Computer-based models together with their interactive interfaces are typically called decision support systems. DSSs are interactive computer-based information providers. The common objective of all DSSs, regardless of the frameworks, methodologies, or techniques used, is to provide timely information that supports human decision makers - at whatever level of decision making. The informational needs of the decision making process are the key considerations that motivate the development of DSSs. The growth of DSS development and use has been substantial. In spite of this impressive growth, computer-aided decision support systems can still be improved and made more useful to those they are intended to support. Researchers and practitioners, and indeed the computer industry, continue to identify ways of doing this. This paper reviews some of these needs and opportunities by focusing on the process of successful DDS development and implementation. The paper outlines an approach and some guidelines for developing DSSs. The approach emphasizes and requires considerable interaction between the DSS developers (analysts) and the DSS users (decision makers). This interaction and feedback is required throughout the entire DSS building, testing and evaluation (debugging), and implementation processes. The paper concludes by identifying some research needs and opportunities affecting DSS development and effective use.     

Who Plans Whose Sustainability? Alternative Roles for Planners

The paper examines alternative roles for planners in planning for sustainable development. First, it outlines the particular context of the task focusing on operational questions, critical issues and sustainable development planning principles. It then explores roles for planners in this context distinguishing broadly among technician, politician and hybrid planners. It evaluates broadly each role's effectiveness and challenges, in particular decision making and political contexts. Finally, it discusses, first, the implications of these roles for planning education and identifies the main groups of skills planning schools should offer. Second, it analyses briefly the implications of these roles for planning practice in terms of the spatial/organizational level of planning, time horizon, functional planning areas, political/decision making system and planning's position in this system.     

FIELD SCALE MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING: A CASE STUDY FROM WESTERN IOWA1

ABSTRACT: Water quality issues in agriculture are growing in importance. A common theme is the provision of better information to decision makers. This study reports the trial of a prototype decision support system by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service and the Agricultural Research Service in the NRCS Harrison County Field Office in 1998. Observed data collected at the Deep Loess Research Station (DLRS) near Treynor, Iowa, were extrapolated using a modified GLEAMS field scale simulation model that included a nitrogen leaching component and a crop growth component. An accounting tool was used to convert crop yield estimates into crop budgets. A model interface was built to specify the climate, soil, and topography of the field, as well as the management scenarios for the alternative management systems. For the Deep Loess Hills area of Harrison County, a total of six soil and slope groups, with 66 total combinations of management practices forming management systems, were defined and simulated based on previously calibrated data from DLRS. A multi‐objective decision support system, the Water Quality Decision Support System, or WQDSS, was used to examine the tradeoffs in a comprehensive set of variables affected by alternative management systems with farmers in Harrison County. The study concluded that a multiobjective decision support system should be developed to support conservation planning by the NRCS. Currently, a larger scale effort to improve water quality decision making is underway.     

Using Multicriteria Methods in Environmental Planning and Management

In environmental planning and decision processes several alternatives are analyzed in terms of multiple noncommensurate criteria, and many different stakeholders with conflicting preferences are involved. Based on our experience in real-life applications, we discuss how multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) methods can be used successfully in such processes. MCDA methods support these processes by providing a framework for collecting, storing, and processing all relevant information, thus making the decision process traceable and transparent. It is therefore possible to understand and explain why, under several conflicting preferences, a particular decision was made. The MCDA framework also makes the requirements for new information explicit, thus supporting the allocation of resources for the process.