HYDROLOGIC SCENARIOS FOR SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: This paper considers the risk of drought and develops drought scenarios for use in the study of severe sustained drought in the Southwestern United States. The focus is on the Colorado River Basin and regions to which Colorado River water is exported, especially southern California, which depends on water from the Colorado River. Drought scenarios are developed using estimates of unimpaired historic streamflow as well as reconstructions of streamflow based on tree ring widths. Drought scenarios in the Colorado River Basin are defined on the basis of annual flow at Lees Ferry. The risk, in terms of return period, of the drought scenarios developed, is assessed using stochastic models.     

HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTER PLANNING MODELS1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has broad, nationwide water resources planning and management responsibilities. In response to the needs of Corps professionals, the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) has developed and supports a family of computer programs designed to aid them in their work. These programs include catchment, channel, alluvial, and statistical process models, system operation models, plan evaluation models, and data management programs. These models individually and collectively have been used throughout the Corps in a wide range of water resources planning studies.     

USE OF A HYDROLOGIC MODEL IN A BASIN-WIDE WATER ALLOCATION PROCEEDING1

ABSTRACT: The Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation developed a hydrologic model to help analyze the effects of allocating water for consumptive and instream uses in the upper Missouri River basin of Montana. The model, a PC-based FORTRAN program, uses a mass-balance approach to compute monthly streamflows, reservoir operations, hydropower production, and irrigation and municipal water uses throughout the 54,000 square mile basin for a 59-year base period. Simulation results are presented as monthly mean and percentile-exceedence values. The model was run for baseline conditions and six hypothetical water-allocation alternatives. Results were used by staff resource area specialists to assess potential impacts to water quantity and distribution, water rights, water quality, stream channel form, fisheries, wildlife, recreation, hydropower production, and economics. These analyses were presented to the public and the decision-making board in an environmental impact statement (EIS). Though, in many instances, the model did not allow for detailed, site-specific analyses, the model was an important tool and its simulation results formed the hydrologic basis for the EIS.     

DEVELOPING A FIELD COMPONENT IN HYDROLOGIC EDUCATION1

ABSTRACT: Recent assessments have emphasized the lack of a field and laboratory component in hydrologic education at the university level. Consequences of this lack include: (1) an unwarranted faith in published data; (2) lack of appreciation for the spatial and temporal variability of most hydrologic processes; (3) lack of appreciation for the difficulty of collecting good quality field data; (4) an inability to design and execute projects to collect field data; (5) a lack of field experience which can be applied when confronted with different problems or new environments; (6) an inability to evaluate published materials or models against “field reality;” (7) an excessive reliance on, and trust in, theoretical or conceptual models; and (8) reduced potential for lifelong learning through observation and analysis. Field courses need not be costly or difficult, but the instructor must be willing to adapt to the uncertainty and problems associated with field measurements. A recently updated course on watershed measurements at Colorado State University illustrates the type of field courses which can be developed if there is the necessary commitment and flexibility. The lack of a current text can be overcome by assembling selected portions of existing government documents, and a sample bibliography is included.     

NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICAL METHODS IN URBAN HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH1

ABSTRACT. In urban hydrologic studies, it is often necessary to determine the effect of changes in urban land use patterns on such runoff characteristics as flood peaks and flow volumes. Nonparametric statistical methods have certain properties that make them a valuable tool for detecting hydrologic change caused by a treatment, such as urbanization, that changes watershed over a period of time. As many hydrologists do not have a working familiarity with nonparametric methods, a number of them are used for illustrative purposes to analyze the effect of urbanization on 24 years of annual flood peaks for a Louisville, Kentucky, watershed. In the example, urbanization was found to increase the central tendency, but not the dispersion of the peaks. Peak flows modeled by holding watershed parameters constant were also found to be increasing because of an upward trend in precipitation. By following the numerical examples in the paper and looking up test statistics in referenced sources, the reader can easily apply these methods to other situations.     

HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS OF THE TONKAWA CREEK FLOOD ABATEMENT PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: Floodwater-retarding impoundments, controlling 68 percent of the drainage area of Tonkawa Creek, a Washita River tributary in southwestern Oklahoma, have reduced the total flow volume about 36 percent over a 5-year period. Analyses showed the reduction occurred primarily in the less-than-2.5-cfs flow range, indicating the base flow regime has been altered. However, channelizing the downstream, mild-sloped, 3.6 miles of Tonkawa Creek that flows across a Washita River terrace increased the flow volume fourfold at the outlet. A double-masscurve analysis of water yield from a 1,127-square-mile Washita basin segment versus an untreated tributary showed the yield has not changed after 25 percent of the tributary area had been treated. Therefore, the flow reduction caused by structures is being offset by increased yields from channelization.     

INTEGRATING SOCIAL ANALYSIS INTO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING: SOME EMERGING TRENDS IN THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS1

ABSTRACT: While federal water resources laws and regulations require social analysis, no one workable formula exists for integrating it into water resources planning. Two primary problems in integrating social analysis into planning are examined; making trade-offs between policy acceptability and theoretical competence, and managing social analysis in planning. For illustration, the article builds on emerging trends within the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. It concludes by observing that creative application of social theory to policy problems along with innovative data gathering techniques are the primary routes to managing these problems.     

SIMULATION OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHANGES IN WATER QUALITY WITHIN A HYDROLOGIC UNIT1

Water quality must be considered in the development and planning aspects of water resource management. To accomplish this, the decision-maker needs to have at his disposal a systematized procedure for simulating water quality changes in both time and space. The simulation model should be capable of representing changes in several parameters of water quality as they are influenced by natural and human factors impinging on the hydrologic system. The objective of this work is two-fold. The first goal is to demonstrate the feasibility of developing and utilizing a water quality simulation model in conjunction with a hydrologic simulation model. The model represents water quality changes in both time and space in response to changing atmospheric and hydrologic conditions and time-varying waste discharges at various points in the system. This model has been developed from and verified with actual field data from a prototype system selected for this purpose. The second aim is to set forth procedural guidelines to assist in the development of water quality simulation models as tools for use in the quality-quantity management of a hydrologic unit.     

INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN OPTIMIZATION: MODELING ECONOMIC AND HYDROLOGIC INTERDEPENDENCE1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents an integrated optimal control model that optimizes economic performance of reservoir management in watersheds in which there are significant economic and hydrologic interdependencies. The model is solved using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). Results show that application of this model to New Mexico's Rio Chama basin can increase total system benefits over historical benefits by exploiting complementarities between hydroelectricity production, instream recreation, and downstream lake recreation.     

SOME PROBLEMS IN STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY1

In order to decrease the uncertainty that results in water resource planning and management studies due to the assumed recurrence of historical hydrological sequences, considerable study of stochastic processes in hydrology has taken place during the past 10 or 15 years. The general objective has been to develop a capability for generating a number of valid sequences, each of which could as resonably occur as could a recurrence of past events. A number of serious problems have been encountered, the consequence of which has been a serious lag in the application of stochastic processes to real planning and management problems. These problems include: a. an inability to generate droughts in some cases that are as extreme as have occurred historically, b. the generation of inconsistent values of stream flow at 2 locations on the same stream, c. the lack of mathematical techniques for the management of incomplete data sets, d. a great increase in the required computation for planning and management studies, and e. theoretical and computational difficulties in expanding the scope of stochastic hydrology from monthly quantities to short-period quantities. This paper discusses these problems and various approaches used in attempting their solution.     

THE HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTER EXPERIENCE IN NONSTRUCTURAL PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: The Hydrologic Engineering Center, Corps of Engineers, has been engaged in research, training, and project assistance in non-structural flood control planning for Corps offices across the United States since 1975. Lessons learned from this experience deal with the role of nonstructural measures in flood plain management, the role of creativity in analysis, the role of analysis, and tools for analysis. The role of nonstructural measures in flood control planning depends upon the scale of the problem, the nature of the measure, the degree of protection desired, and whether damage is to existing or future property. An earnest seeking for nonstructural opportunities, a field presence for their formulation, and compatbility with local infrastructure plans are prerequisite to creative use of nonstructural measures. Analysis is a necessary complement of creativity. Several tools for nonstructural analysis have been developed and applied to flood problems involving several hundred and several thousand structures.     

HYDROLOGIC BUDGET FOR A FRESHWATER MARSH IN FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Accurate water balance calculations are essential for water resource and environmental management decisions, but many of the terms used in the equation are difficult to measure. In this study, a method for measuring rates of evapotranspiration and net seepage from a freshwater marsh in southwest Florida is described. The results are compared to evaporation pan estimates as well as to calculations that balanced all the terms in the hydrologic budget. The measured rates of evapotranspiration showed a. distinct seasonal trend ranging from an average high of 0.24 in/d during July 1992 to a low of 0.06 in/d in January 1993. Evapotranspiration rates were higher than Class A evaporation pan measurements during July and August, indicating transpiration by plants exceeded evaporation by pans. Net ground water seepage flowed out of the marsh except during periods of high water table conditions. When all terms in the hydrologic budget were evaluated, the equation balanced on a yearly basis with an error of 2 percent, on a seasonal basis with errors less than 7 percent, but on a monthly basis errors were as great as 30 percent. Total annual rainfall on the marsh was 45 percent of the total marsh hydrologic input and was approximately equal to the loss by evapotranspiration of 41 percent.     

PLANNERS AS A PUBLIC IN WATER RESOURCES PUBLIC PARTICIPATION PROGRAMS1

This paper suggests a number of benefits in identifying urban and regional planners as a public in public participation programs of water resources planning studies. A perspective on public participation is presented. Recent trends and developing concepts are identified: emphasis on the need to coordinate urban and regional planning activities with water resources planning, increasing system complexity, the goals and objectives orientation of planning, planning for multi-objectives, the evaluation of a broader range of alternatives, and the consideration of water alternatives as only one set of measures to further society's aspirations. One way to assist in capitalizing on these trends is to seek out participation of those in other planning efforts who are involved in planning but on a different level. Because of their intimate knowledge of an areas history, growth and development, political climate, local perceptions of needs and desires, and major problems and issues they are able to contribute a great deal of insight in making the water resources planning effort more responsive at the local level. The paper describes one of the first major efforts at working-level public-planner contact which was carried out as part of the Susquehanna River Basin Study. A regional survey team comprised of an engineer and an economist from a federal agency and a state water resources planner met informally with planners, city managers, and local planning commissions to discuss issues related to water resources and the growth and development of local areas. This effort while only part of the overall public participation program yielded a number of benefits and if expanded and refined would be a very useful experience in other studies.     

A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE PALMER HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index to departures from average temperature and precipitation conditions is examined. A time series of zero index values was calculated and then one monthly temperature or precipitation value was perturbed. The resulting time series shows the effects on the index of one anomalous value. Independent series were calculated for temperature anomalies of plus and minus 1, 3, 5, and 10F and for precipitation anomalies of 25, 50, 75, 125, 150, and 200 percent of normal for each calendar month for Colorado, Indiana, Nevada, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Washington, and Wisconsin. Analysis of the time series showed that the period of time required for the index to reflect actual rather than artificial initial conditions could be more than four years. It was also found that the effects of temperature anomalies are insignificant compared to the effects of precipitation anomalies. In some cases, one anomalous precipitation value could result in established wet or dry spells that last for up to two years. Although not examined in detail, the time series suggest that distributions of index values may be asymmetrical and possibly bimodal.     

THE ENGINEER'S ROLE IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

Engineers have traditionally led the planning effort in water resources developments. The engineer's leadership role in water resources, as well as in many other planning activities, has been challenged by technical and scientific people as well as by the general public for insensitivity to social, aesthetic, ecological, and political problems created by planning. The paper draws attention to the fact that the engineer cannot continue to expect the role of leadership to fall to him unless he prepares himself properly for that role. However, it is brought out that the engineer, by his education and training, is still the best qualified among all the representatives of the various disciplines associated with water resources planning to lead the planning effort if he prepares himself for the task. The requirements for preparation for leading water resources planning are outlined.     

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF WATER CONSUMPTION1

The purpose of this study was to determine the degree of influence of various factors on municipal water consumption in Illinois. For the collection of basic data, questionnaires were sent to all public water works of incorporated towns. The questionnaire was designed to obtain information on factors which may have any effect on water use. The effects of the different parameters on water consumption were based on several correlation and regression combinations of predictands and predictors. It was found that in the Chicago region the percent of services and water used for commercial and industrial purposes and the age of the water works were the most important parameters influencing water consumption (gallons per capita per day) when pumpage is metered at the water works as well as at the customers. For the State, excluding the Chicago region, percent of public water use, persons per service, population and commercial and industrial water use were the most important parameters. It has been recommended that similar statistical analysis be conducted periodically to establish a trend or law of change from the influencing parameters.     

APPLICATION OF A HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR LAND USE PLANNING IN FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: An environmental simulation model of the Upper St. Johns River Basin, Florida, has been developed in order to predict hydrologic responses under proposed management plans. Land use projections for each of 19 hydrologic planning units are provided by a linear programming analysis of agricultural activities. Inputs to the model include rainfall, runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), aquifer properties, topography, soil types, and vegetative patterns. A water balance is developed in the uplands based on infiltration, ET, surface runoff, and groundwater flow. Valley continuity is based on stage-volume relationship for inflows and outflows and a variable roughness coefficient dependent on vegetative patterns. Land use changes form the basis for predicting hydroperiod variation under alternative management schemes. Plans are ranked according to two criteria, deviation from a natural hydroperiod and flood or drought control provided. Results indicate that (1) a single reservoir without irrigation and (2) floodplain preservation plans are superior to (3) multiple reservoir with irrigation and (4) uncontrolled floodplain plans with regard to both criteria.     

ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS IN CORPS PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Survey data from samples of two types of Corps of Engineers planning studies have been collected. The nature of significant environmental issues affecting the studies was ascertained. Information concerning District administrative practices and communication patterns and extraorganizational coordination procedures was also obtained. Statistical analysis examined the relationships between these practices and procedures and the consideration given environmental issues in plan formulation and modification decisions. Environmental issues receive greater consideration in plan formulation decisions where District policies encourage interdisciplinary planning and direct communication between planners and environmental interests. Plan modification decisions reflect environmental considerations to a greater degree where significant controversy exists and where reviewing agencies actively pursue environmental issues.     

INCOMMENSURABLES AND TRADEOFFS IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Society has many objectives, many of which are not commensurable. This incommensurability problem is generally referred to as the multiple objective problem and leads to the notion of tradeoffs. Various approaches to calculating tradeoffs in water resource development have been advocated by several authors. Many have made errors in the context of the conceptural model presented in this paper. It is argued the correct framework for tradeoff analysis is the neoclassical economic model. The relevant tradeoffs, then, are really price ratios. These, in turn, must be calculated in such a manner as to allow comparison of product mixes where the expenditure on resources is the same. This is where several authors have erred. An empirical example which illustrates the correct application of the model is presented.     

SPATIAL VARIATIONS OF WATER LOSS DURING DROUGH A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: A regional water conservation system for drought management involves many uncertain factors. Water received from precipitation may stay on the ground surface, evaporate back into the atmosphere, or infiltrate into the ground. Reliable estimates of the amount of evapotranspiration and infiltration are not available for a large basin, especially during periods of drought. By applying a geographic information system, this study develops procedures to investigate spatial variations of unavailable water for given levels of drought severity. Levels of drought severity are defined by truncated values of monthly precipitation and daily streamflow to reflect levels of water availability. The greater the truncation level, the lower the precipitation or streamflow. Truncation levels of monthly precipitation are recorded in depth of water while those of daily streamflow are converted into monthly equivalent water depths. Truncation levels of precipitation and streamflow treated as regionalized variables are spatially interpolated by the unbiased minimum variance estimation. The interpolated results are vector values of precipitation and streamflow at a grid of points covering the studied basin. They are then converted into raster‐based values and expressed graphically. The image subtraction operation is used to subtract the image of streamflow from that of precipitation at their corresponding level of drought severity. It is done on a cell‐by‐cell basis resulting in new attribute values to form the spatial image representing a spatial distribution of potential water loss at a given level of drought severity.