RELIABILITY OF THE DESIGN STORM CONCEPT IN EVALUATING RUNOFF PEAK FLOW1

A comparative study was undertaken to evaluate peak runoff flow rates using (1) a continuous series of actual rainfall events and (2) design storms. The ILLUDAS computer model was used to simulate runoff over a catchment within the city of Montreal, Canada. A ten-year period, five-minute increment rainfall data base was used to derive peak flow frequency curves. Two types of design storms were analyzed: one derived from intensity duration frequency curves (Chicago type), the other from averaging actual rainfall patterns (Huff type). Antecedent soil moisture conditions were considered in the analyses. It was found that the probability distribution of runoff peak flow was sensitive to the choice of design storm pattern and to the antecedent soil moisture condition. A symmetrical, Chicago-type design storm with antecedent dry soil moisture produced a flow frequency curve similar to the one obtained from a series of historical rainfall events.     

NORMALIZED UNIT HYDROGRAPH AGGREGATION1

ABSTRACT: The unit hydrograph is a common tool in hydraulic design. Used correctly, it allows a design engineer to estimate a runoff hydrograph from a drainage basin given a rainfall event. The typical method for estimating a unit hydrograph for a gaged watershed is by deconvolution. However, distinct storms produce different unit hydrographs for a single watershed. Consequently, a design engineer usually develops a composite, or average, unit hydrograph based on several recorded storm events. Common methods for estimating this composite unit hydrograph include curve fitting, simple aggregation, and multistorm optimization techniques. This paper introduces a new method to perform aggregation of unit hydrographs. The method is an extension to the simple averaging technique, in which prior to averaging, the individual unit hydrograph time ordinates are normalized with respect to the average time to peak. The normalization method is compared to a simple averaging technique and two multistorm aggregation techniques at six rural watersheds in Alabama. The results indicate that on average the normalization method predicts runoff nearly as accurately as the multistorm techniques, and displays improvement for 60 percent of the storms tested when compared with the simple averaging technique.     

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO STORM WATER MANAGEMENT AND LAND DEVELOPMENT1

Low impact development (LID) and other land development methods have been presented as alternatives to conventional storm water management and site design. Low impact development encourages land preservation and use of distributed, infiltration‐based storm water management systems to minimize impacts on hydrology. Such systems can include shallow retention areas, akin to natural depression storage. Other approaches to land development may emphasize land preservation only. Herein, an analysis of four development alternatives is presented. The first was Traditional development with conventional pipe/pond storm water management and half‐acre lots. The second alternative was Cluster development, in which implementation of the local cluster development ordnance was assumed, resulting in quarter‐acre lots with a pipe/pond storm water management system and open space preservation. The “Partial” LID option used the same lot layout as the Traditional option, with a storm water management system emphasizing shallow depression storage. The “Full” LID used the Cluster site plan and the depression storage‐based storm water management system. The alternatives were compared to the hydrologic response of existing site conditions. The analysis used two design storms and a continuous rainfall record. The combination of land preservation and infiltration‐based storm water management yielded the hydrologic response closest to existing conditions, although ponds were required to control peak flows for the design storms.     

Runoff Curve Numbers at the Agricultural Field‐Scale and Implications for Continuous Simulation Modeling

This study used monitoring in the waterways of agricultural fields to understand the use of the runoff curve number (CN) in continuous simulation models. The CN has a long history as a design tool for estimating runoff volumes for large, single storms on small watersheds, but its use in continuous simulation models to describe runoff from smaller storms and relatively small areas is more recent and controversial. We examined 788 nonwinter rainfall events on four agricultural fields over five years (2004‐2008) during which runoff was generated in 87 events. The largest 20 runoff events on each field generated approximately 90% of the total runoff volume. The runoff event CNs showed an inverse correlation with storm depth that could not consistently be explained by previous precipitation. We review how small areas of higher runoff generation within larger areas will systematically increase the apparent CN of the larger area as the storm size decreases. If this variation is not incorporated into a model explicitly, continuous simulation modelers must understand that when source areas are aggregated or when runoff generation is spatially variable, the overall CN is not unique when smaller storms are included in the calibration set.     

SIZING OF SURFACE WATER RUNOFF DETENTION PONDS FOR WATER QUALITY IMPROVEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Historically, storm water management programs and criteria have focused on quantity issues related to flooding and drainage system design. Traditional designs were based on large rainfall‐runoff events such as those having two‐year to 100‐year return periods. While these are key criteria for management and control of peak flows, detention basin designs based on these criteria may not provide optimal quality treatment of storm runoff. As evidenced by studies performed by numerous public and private organizations, the water quality impacts of storm water runoff are primarily a function of more frequent rainfall‐runoff events rather than the less frequent events that cause peak flooding. Prior to this study there had been no detailed investigations to characterize the variability of the more frequent rainfall events on Guam. Also, there was a need to develop some criteria that could be applied by designers, developers, and agency officials in order to reduce the impact of storm water runoff on the receiving bodies. The objectives of this paper were three‐fold: (1) characterize the hourly rainfall events with respect to volume, frequency, duration, and the time between storm events; (2) evaluate the rainfall‐runoff characteristics with respect to capture volume for water quality treatment; and (3) prepare criteria for sizing and designing of storm water quality management facilities. The rainfall characterization studies have provided insight into the characteristics of rainstorms that are likely to produce non‐point source pollution in storm water runoff. By far the most significant fmdings are the development of a series of design curves that can be used in the actual sizing of storm water detention and treatment facilities. If applied correctly, these design curves could lead to a reduction of non‐point source pollution to Guam's streams, estuaries, and coastal environments.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events Over Flamingo Tropicana Watershed1

Abstract: Climate change, particularly the projected changes to precipitation patterns, is likely to affect runoff both regionally and temporally. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense in the future in arid urban areas and this will likely lead to higher streamflow. Through hydrological modeling, this article simulates an urban basin response to the most intense storm under anthropogenic climate change conditions. This study performs an event‐based simulation for shorter duration storms in the Flamingo Tropicana (FT) watershed in Las Vegas, Nevada. An extreme storm, defined as a 100‐year return period storm, is selected from historical records and perturbed to future climatic conditions with respect to multimodel multiscenario (A1B, A2, B1) bias corrected and spatially disaggregated data from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) database. The cumulative annual precipitation for each 30‐year period shows a continuous decrease from 2011 to 2099; however, the summer convective storms, which are considered as extreme storms for the study area, are expected to be more intense in future. Extreme storm events show larger changes in streamflow under different climate scenarios and time periods. The simulated peak streamflow and total runoff volume shows an increase from 40% to more than 150% (during 2041‐2099) for different climate scenarios. This type of analysis can help evaluate the vulnerability of existing flood control system and flood control policies.     

A SCALE‐INVARIANT GAUSS‐MARKOV MODEL FOR DESIGN STORM HYETOGRAPHS1

Abstract. Hyetographs are essential to many hydrological designs. Many studies have shown that hyetographs are specific to storm types and durations. Recent work presented evidence that dimensionless hyetographs are scale invariant. We show that the simple scaling property of rainfall guarantees that the normalized rainfall rates of different storm durations are identically distributed and propose a nonstationary Gauss‐Markov model based on the annual maximum events that arise from the dominant storm type. We derive the unique estimators for the parameters of the Gauss‐Markov model under two constraints that: (a) the typical peak rainfall rate is preserved, and (b) the most likely hyetograph is obtained. One attractive feature of this model is that it allows translating hyetographs between storms of different durations. Two examples illustrate our model.     

COMPARISON OF DESIGN STORM CONCEPTS USING CONTINUOUS SIMULATION WITH SHORT DURATION STORMS1

ABSTRACT: The objectives of this paper were to test the ability of various design storm distributions to simulate the actual rainfall pattern and to compare the runoff rates used in the design of stormwater management devices in the State of Florida using continuous simulation approach. The analyses were performed for four gaged stations to evaluate the applicability of design storm distributions in different parts of the State of Florida. The approach used in this study compared the peak runoff rates from design storms based on the various distributions to those that would result from actual rainfall events. A series of continuous runoff rates were developed through the use of actual fifteen-minute recorded rainfall data, Horton type infiltration decay and recovery rate, and a continuous simulation model. The runoff rates were analyzed using frequency distributions to obtain peak runoff rates associated with different return periods based on the assumption that the continuous simulation approach closely predicts the actual runoff rates from the gaged stations. The results show that the behavior of the design storm distributions varies for different watershed characteristics in different parts of the state. The study also suggests that in general the Florida Department of Transportation and the Suwanne River Water Management (FDOT/ SRWMD) distributions appeared to agree with the continuous simulation results.     

DETERMINING RAINS OF HYDROLOGIC CONSEQUENCE IN CHICAGO FOR FORECASTING APPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Accurate forecasting of heavy rainstorms that affect the Chicago Metropolitan area and lead to the undesirable release of storm runoff into Lake Michigan is a major objective. These releases (overflows) were found to be produced by storm events yielding 2 inches or more in a few hours, although only 24 percent of such ≥ 2-inch storms in the area during 1948-1981 produced overflows. Failure to forecast properly or to be able to react to these 2-inch overflow producing events has occurred most often in the spring and fall, although relatively often in June and July in recent years. These overflows have exhibited an inexplicable trebling during 1972-1981 without an increase in ≥ 2-inch storm events. This type of troublesome storm can be reliably predicted, using a recently developed radar man forecast system for the Chicago area.     

STORM CHARACTERISTICS OF CONVECTIVE-SCALE PRECIPITATION1

A classification scheme for convective precipitation, having applications in both analysis and modeling of meteorological and hydrological events, is presented. The method is based upon observations of rainfall at the ground, radar scans of storm events, and visible and infrared satellite imagery of larger storm systems. Empirical and theoretical frequency distributions are derived for total storm rainfall, rainfall duration and time between storms for each of the convective categories. This stratification is directly applicable to the experimental design and evaluation of weather modification projects and may be useful for the development and interpretation of meteorological and hydrological models. When atmospheric conditions limit storm development to cells, rainfall was seldom observed. Small clusters also produce small amounts of rainfall but have a longer lifetime than cells and are likely candidates for cloud seeding attempts to encourage their growth to large clusters. Large and nested clusters usually produce large amounts of natural precipitation. A few large storms account for most of a season's rainfall.     

Hydrologic Impact Assessment of Land Cover Change and Stormwater Management Using the Hydrologic Footprint Residence

Urbanization impacts the stormwater regime through increased runoff volumes and velocities. Detention ponds and low impact development (LID) strategies may be implemented to control stormwater runoff. Typically, mitigation strategies are designed to maintain postdevelopment peak flows at predevelopment levels for a set of design storms. Peak flow does not capture the extent of changes to the hydrologic flow regime, and the hydrologic footprint residence (HFR) was developed to calculate the area and duration of inundated land during a storm. This study couples a cellular automata land cover change model with a hydrologic and hydraulic framework to generate spatial projections of future development on the fringe of a rapidly urbanizing metropolitan area. The hydrologic flow regime is characterized for existing and projected land cover patterns under detention pond and LID‐based control, using the HFR and peak flow values. Results demonstrate that for less intense and frequent rainfall events, LID solutions are better with respect to HFR; for larger storms, detention pond strategies perform better with respect to HFR and peak flow.     

PREDICTING PEAK STREAM FLOW FROM AN UNDISTURBED WATERSHED IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS1

ABSTRACT: Data from a small forested catchment were used to model peak stream flow as a function of basic hydrologic variables associated with 112 rain storms. Rainfall depth and initial stream flow rate accounted for 87.1 percent of peak flow variability. Forty expressions of rainfall intensity (describing both the temporal sequence of intensity for 20 equal storm intervals, and maximum intensity for 20 separate interval lengths) were used in an attempt to improve the predictability of basic models. None of the intensity parameters improved predictability by as much as 2 percent, apparently because the most intense rainfall bursts generally occurred near the beginning of storm periods. Mean rainfall intensity for entire storms was generally as effective as any of the shorter interval intensities, and its use helped to linearize the relationship between peak flow and rainfall depth and duration.     

REGIONAL RAINFALL INTENSITY-DURATION-FREQUENCY CURVES FOR PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT: A statistical analysis of all available continuous hourly and 15-minute duration rainfall records for Pennsylvania was performed to develop an updated procedure to estimate design storms. As a resuit of this study, Pennsylvania was divided into five homogeneous rainfall regions and a set of rainfall intensity-duration curves developed for each region, for return periods of 1 to 100 years and durations ranging from 5 minutes to 24 hours. The PDT-IDF curves were judged to be a better representation of Pennsylvania rainfall than the nationwide TP-40 maps, particularly for storm events of 10-years and lower return periods. The average time distribution of 24-hour storms in Pennsylvania was found to be well represented by the SCS Type II distribution. The Corps of Engineers SPS 24-hour distribution was found to differ appreciably from both the SCS Type H and the Pennsylvania 24-hour storm distribution. For storm durations between 15 and 90 minutes the standard Yarnell intensity-duration curves closely resemble Pennsylvania storm distributions.     

Simulated interior floods and the flood experience in urban communities

The Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-1) model was used to construct synthetic hydrographs for isolated interior urban floods. Flood peak and lag time were very well preserved in simulated flows. Total volume was not adequately expressed. Lag time varied inversely with both urban development and storm intensity. Peak discharge varied with storm intensity, but this variability was well defined only at very high urbanization levels. An 175% increase in storm intensity produced a change of about 15% in peak discharge. Claims for flood damage correlated well with estimates of peak flow and lag time combined. Other measures of flood experience also correlated with the two features. Within the range of storms utilized, urban development factors consistently outranked storm intensity as a determining factor in flood damage.     

Preferential flow estimates to an agricultural tile drain with implications for glyphosate transport

Agricultural subsurface drains, commonly referred to as tile drains, are potentially significant pathways for the movement of fertilizers and pesticides to streams and ditches in much of the Midwest. Preferential flow in the unsaturated zone provides a route for water and solutes to bypass the soil matrix and reach tile drains faster than predicted by traditional displacement theory. This paper uses chloride concentrations to estimate preferential flow contributions to a tile drain during two storms in May 2004. Chloride, a conservative anion, was selected as the tracer because of differences in chloride concentrations between the two sources of water to the tile drain, preferential and matrix flow. A strong correlation between specific conductance and chloride concentration provided a mechanism to estimate chloride concentrations in the tile drain throughout the storm hydrographs. A simple mixing analysis was used to identify the preferential flow component of the storm hydrograph. During two storms, preferential flow contributed 11 and 51% of total storm tile drain flow; the peak contributions, 40 and 81%, coincided with the peak tile drain flow. Positive relations between glyphosate [N-(phosphonomethyl)glycine] concentrations and preferential flow for the two storms suggest that preferential flow is an important transport pathway to the tile drain.     

Variation of Nitrogen Concentrations in Stormpipe Discharge in a Residential Watershed1

Abstract: Use of lawn chemicals in residential areas may contribute nonpoint source (NPS) pollutants, such as nutrients, pesticides, and herbicides to streams. We conducted a 2‐year screening study of discharge in stormwater pipes in the Wissahickon Valley Watershed (suburban Philadelphia) using nitrogen as an indicator of lawn chemical use. Stormwater samples representing first flush and composite runoff were collected approximately twice a month using automatic samplers triggered by rise in water level during storms. The runoff collected by the stormpipes was from neighborhoods with 15‐100 residences, and from 2 to 18 ha (5‐45 acres). Several factors were examined to evaluate the effects on nitrate concentration. These factors included time of sampling (season), number of homes, total area, size of the storm, and time since last storm. Nitrate levels were generally less than 5 mg/l, but still above background in typical undeveloped areas. Concentrations were slightly higher in the first summer than during a drought in the second year, but the difference was not statistically significant. There was a positive correlation between size of the neighborhood (capture area) and peak concentration of nitrate. Storm characteristics (size of storm and time since last storm) did not correlate with nitrate concentrations. The variation in both space and time suggests that a more local control may be a factor. Although individual lawn chemical applications were not monitored, they may influence the timing of increased loading. Furthermore, the variability indicates that quarterly monitoring will not capture discharge characteristics of storm basins.     

Rapid Assessment of Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Practices under Design Storms

Low impact development (LID) practices are often applied to compensate for surface imperviousness caused by urban development. These practices can mitigate flood risk by reducing runoff volume and peak flow and by delaying the time to peak flow. To select a suitable LID practice type and its surface area during the preliminary design process, it is necessary to rapidly estimate the hydrologic performance of various LID designs under design storms. This study provides a method and a toolbox for rapid assessment of the hydrologic performance of various LID practices, which can be useful to developers for establishment of preliminary LID designs. The hydrologic performance of three common types of LID practices (i.e., green roofs, bioretention cells, and infiltration trenches) under various design storms is first simulated using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The results are then presented as performance curves on a unit storage basis. Look‐up tables are further developed to assist the comparison and selection of the LID alternatives for various hydrologic performance targets. To facilitate SWMM modeling, a MATLAB toolbox is developed to automate the process of input modification, model simulation, result extraction, and postprocessing. Finally, the sensitivity of the look‐up curves to design storm types and design specifications of bioretention cells is also analyzed, and the assumptions used in the development of these look‐up curves are validated.     

ROLE OF BASEFLOW IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF RELATIONS1

ABSTRACT. The role of initial baseflow, or the baseflow at the beginning of storm precipitation, in modifying mathematical rainfall-runoff relations is analyzed by using data from 95 storms over a drainage basin in Illinois. A regression model is set up with total runoff, surface runoff, baseflow runoff, and peak flow as dependent variables, and storm precipitation, initial baseflow, effective and total storm durations, and highest and lowest temperatures during the storm as independent variables. Stepwise regression analyses show that storm precipitation and initial baseflow are the most important variables for making dependent variable estimates. The standard error estimates using only storm precipitation and initial baseflow as predictors show a seasonal trend with a peak in July, August, or September. An understanding of the role of baseflow as an indicator of average soil moisture condition over the basin can be of great help in short-term reservoir regulation and flood warning.     

EVALUATION OF HYDROLOGIC BENEFITS OF INFILTRATION BASED URBAN STORM WATER MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: As watersheds are urbanized, their surfaces are made less pervious and more channelized, which reduces infiltration and speeds up the removal of excess runoff. Traditional storm water management seeks to remove runoff as quickly as possible, gathering excess runoff in detention basins for peak reduction where necessary. In contrast, more recently developed “low impact” alternatives manage rainfall where it falls, through a combination of enhancing infiltration properties of pervious areas and rerouting impervious runoff across pervious areas to allow an opportunity for infiltration. In this paper, we investigate the potential for reducing the hydrologic impacts of urbanization by using infiltration based, low impact storm water management. We describe a group of preliminary experiments using relatively simple engineering tools to compare three basic scenarios of development: an undeveloped landscape; a fully developed landscape using traditional, high impact storm water management; and a fully developed landscape using infiltration based, low impact design. Based on these experiments, it appears that by manipulating the layout of urbanized landscapes, it is possible to reduce impacts on hydrology relative to traditional, fully connected storm water systems. However, the amount of reduction in impact is sensitive to both rainfall event size and soil texture, with greatest reductions being possible for small, relatively frequent rainfall events and more pervious soil textures. Thus, low impact techniques appear to provide a valuable tool for reducing runoff for the events that see the greatest relative increases from urbanization: those generated by the small, relatively frequent rainfall events that are small enough to produce little or no runoff from pervious surfaces, but produce runoff from impervious areas. However, it is clear that there still needs to be measures in place for flood management for larger, more intense, and relatively rarer storm events, which are capable of producing significant runoff even for undeveloped basins.