The optimal use of non-renewable resources: The theory of extraction

The traditional theory of exhaustion is revised to allow for long run capital mobility. This model is extended to include the impact of cumulative environmental damages on the optimal path of resource use. Models and optimal markets are then analyzed for cases where minerals are available over a continuum of quality and where recycling ameliorates inevitable exhaustion of non-renewable resources. Finally, the impact of technological change on long run trends in mineral prices is examined.     

Evaluating the environmental impacts of an urban wetland park based on emergy accounting and life cycle assessment: A case study in Beijing

In this paper, emergy accounting (EA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) methods are employed to investigate a typical urban wetland park, the Green Lake Urban Wetland Park (GLUWP) of Beijing, in terms of its environmental and capital inputs, ecosystem services and organic matter yields, environmental support, and sustainability. The LCA method is also used to obtain a quantitative estimation of the environmental impact of discharges during the entire life cycle of the GLUWP. Various emergy-based indices, such as emergy yield ratio (EYR), environmental load ratio (ELR), emergy sustainability index (ESI), net economic benefit (Np), and environmental impacts of process-based LCA, including global warming potential (GWP), eutrophication (EU), nonrenewable resource depletion (RU), energy consumption (EN), acidification potential (AP), photochemical oxidant creation potential (POCP), particulate matter (PM) and wastes (W), are calculated. The results show that the GLUWP has higher proportions of renewable resource input, less pressure on the environment, more environmental support and better ecological and economic benefits, which can be considered as an environment-friendly and long-term sustainable ecological practice, compared with another constructed wetland in Beijing. Meanwhile, the dominant environmental impact is induced by POCP with the construction phase contributing the most on the entire life cycle. It is expected that increasing green area, extensively using environment-friendly materials, optimizing construction techniques and reducing power consumption can promote the sustainability of the GLUWP.     

Resource extraction and recycling with environmental costs

Extraction and use of a natural resource is assumed to affect the environment adversely. A perfect substitute for the resource can be supplied through a recycling process. Recycling may also have harmful effects on the environment, but to a smaller extent than extraction. The optimal path of extraction and recycling is studied under various assumptions about the environmental effects of recycling and the assimilative capacity of the environment. In particular, it is shown how the cost of recycling will affect initial resource extraction as well as the environmental quality at the time of resource exhaustion and in the long-run stationary state.     

Optimal investment policies with exhaustible resources: An information-based model

An information-based model of the “optimal control” type is developed using concepts from information theory to explore the dynamics of fossil resource exhaustion and the phenomenon of substitution by other forms of capital and technological knowledge. All exhaustible resources stocks and forms of capital (and knowledge) are taken to be equivalent to forms of information in the physical sense. It is shown that, with optimal policies, the planning period, or cycle, has several distinct phases, with different optimal investment patterns. The model has two important qualitative implications: (1) economic growth rates are inherently discontinuous and (2) the model predicts an evolutionary structural change, viz., the creation of a new sector in response to the progressive exhaustion (or obsolescence) of previously essential resources or capital stocks. A multiperiod extension is suggested, leading to a tentative explanation for the Kondratieff long-wave phenomenon.     

On the profitability of exhausting natural resources

Two models are treated. One deals with a mineral deposit, the other with a biological substance. It is assumed that in the deposit there exist all grades of ore, and that, the biological substance grows as long as a positive quantity is left. The course of investment, and production decisions is derived when capital is expressly built up for the purpose of exploitation of the specific resource. Within the simple linear control problem it is concluded that exhaustion is never profitable. The steady state in the biological case is discussed and compared to maximum sustainable yield.     

中国生态资产估价研究进展

随着对全球变化、生态破坏、环境污染等问题的出现,生态资产研究已成为政府、科研院所等的热点研究领域。本文将生态资产研究按行政区、流域与单一生态系统分3类进行分析,发现在流域尺度上的生态资产估算,以及生态资产的驱动机制研究较为薄弱;同时,文章对生态资产估算技术的适用范围、特点与缺点进行分析。在此基础上,探讨了目前我国生态资产研究存在的难点与不足,并对中国生态资产估算做了一些前展性的讨论。     

Invasion versus Isolation: Trade-Offs in Managing Native Salmonids with Barriers to Upstream Movement

Abstract: Conservation biologists often face the trade‐off that increasing connectivity in fragmented landscapes to reduce extinction risk of native species can foster invasion by non‐native species that enter via the corridors created, which can then increase extinction risk. This dilemma is acute for stream fishes, especially native salmonids, because their populations are frequently relegated to fragments of headwater habitat threatened by invasion from downstream by 3 cosmopolitan non‐native salmonids. Managers often block these upstream invasions with movement barriers, but isolation of native salmonids in small headwater streams can increase the threat of local extinction. We propose a conceptual framework to address this worldwide problem that focuses on 4 main questions. First, are populations of conservation value present (considering evolutionary legacies, ecological functions, and socioeconomic benefits as distinct values)? Second, are populations vulnerable to invasion and displacement by non‐native salmonids? Third, would these populations be threatened with local extinction if isolated with barriers? And, fourth, how should management be prioritized among multiple populations? We also developed a conceptual model of the joint trade‐off of invasion and isolation threats that considers the opportunities for managers to make strategic decisions. We illustrated use of this framework in an analysis of the invasion‐isolation trade‐off for native cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii) in 2 contrasting basins in western North America where invasion and isolation are either present and strong or farther away and apparently weak. These cases demonstrate that decisions to install or remove barriers to conserve native salmonids are often complex and depend on conservation values, environmental context (which influences the threat of invasion and isolation), and additional socioeconomic factors. Explicit analysis with tools such as those we propose can help managers make sound decisions in such complex circumstances.     

Monopoly exploitation of an exhaustible resource

The popular notion that a monopolist will exhaust a nonrenewable natural resource at a slower than socially optimal rate is examined. Contrary to the prevailing belief, instances do exist for which the monopolist uses the resource faster than the social maximizer. This is demonstrated first by finding conditions for which the expected result—a monopoly rate which is slower than optimal-will always hold, and second, by showing that for situations where these conditions are violated the result may be reversed.     

A qualitative characterization of the competitive nonrenewable resource extracting firm

Using variational differential equations, a systematic qualitative analysis is carried out for the competitive nonrenewable resource extracting firm. The parameters of interest are the output price, variable input price, discount rate, lease length, initial resource stock, and various tax rates. The effects of changes in these parameters on the entire optimal time paths of the current shadow value of the stock, the resource stock, and the extraction rate are characterized in the perturbed phase plane.     

Entry Deterrence and Signaling in a Nonrenewable Resource Model

We analyze a nonrenewable resource model in which an incumbent firm faces potential entry from a rival firm. The incumbent has private information about its stock size but the rival can observe extraction. With observable extraction and unobservable stock, the rival can use extraction as a signal about stock, from which it can infer whether entry is likely to be profitable. We characterize the necessary conditions for pooling and separating perfect Bayesian equilibria in a signaling game of resource extraction and provide examples of each. We show that the incumbent will often prefer pooling to separating even though welfare is higher in separating equilibrium.     

Attitudes towards risk and the optimal exploitation of an exhaustible resource

The exploitation of a nonrenewable natural resource, such as petroleum or mineral ores, is analyzed in a stochastic framework with price uncertainty. The market setting may be either monopolistic or competitive. We demonstrate that the rate of extraction varies directly with the resource owner's willingness to accept risk. Rish-preferring owners use the resource more rapidly than risk-neutral owners, who in turn deplete the resource more rapidly than risk-averse owners. It is also seen that the usual practice of increasing the discount rate to account for risk induces a more rapid rate of resource use, when in fact a slower rate of depletion is desired.     

Ecological Determinants of Distribution Decline and Risk of Extinction in Moths

Abstract:  For successful conservation of species it is important to identify traits that predispose species to the risk of extinction. By identifying such traits conservation efforts can be directed toward species that are most at risk of becoming threatened. We used data derived from the literature to determine ecological traits that affect distribution, distribution change, and the risk of extinction in Finnish noctuid moths (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae). The ecological traits we examined included body size, larval specificity, length of the flight period, and overwintering stage. In addition, in monophagous species we examined the effects of resource distribution. Larval specificity, length of the flight period, and the overwintering stage each had an independent effect on the risk of extinction when the effects of other traits were controlled by entering all traits into the same regression model. Not a single trait predicted the risk of extinction when analysis was conducted without controlling for the other traits. This discrepancy among the results suggests that a single trait may not be enough to allow prediction of the risk of extinction. Instead, it seems that for successful, predictive conservation science data on several ecological characteristics are needed.     

The optimal extinction of a renewable natural resource

This paper examines conditions for extinction when the net benefits from a renewable resource are a nonlinear function of the harvest rate. As in the linear case, extinction depends on the size of the interest rate relative to the growth potential of the species. Here, however, the size of the initial resource stock is also crucial. It is shown that extinction is optimal if the interest rate is greater than the growth potential of the species, but only for small initial stocks. Indeed, if the initial stock is sufficiently high, extinction need not be optimal even if the interest rate is infinite.     

Hartwick's rule and maximin paths when the exhaustible resource has an amenity value

This paper studies the maximin paths of the canonical Dasgupta–Heal–Solow model when the stock of natural capital is a direct argument of well-being, besides consumption. Hartwick's rule then appears as an efficient tool to characterize solutions in a variety of settings. We start with the case without technical progress. We obtain an explicit solution of the maximin problem in the case where production and utility are Cobb–Douglas. When the utility function is CES with a low elasticity of substitution between consumption and natural capital, we show that it is optimal to preserve forever a critical level of natural capital, determined endogeneously. We then study how technical progress affects the optimal maximin paths, in the Cobb–Douglas utility case. On the long run path of the economy capital, production and consumption grow at a common constant rate, while the resource stock decreases at a constant rate and is therefore completely depleted in the very long run. A higher amenity value of the resource stock leads to faster economic growth, but to a lower long run rate of depletion. We then develop a complete analysis of the dynamics of the maximin problem when the sole source of well-being is consumption, and provide a numerical resolution of the model with resource amenity. The economy consumes, produces and invests less in the short run if the resource has an amenity value than if it does not, whereas it is the contrary in the medium and long runs. However, and without surprise, the resource stock remains for ever higher with resource amenity than without.     

Geographic range size and extinction risk assessment in nomadic species

Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to‐and‐fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid‐zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation planning.     

Green markets, eco-certification, and equilibrium fraud

Consumers voluntarily pay significant price premiums to acquire unobservable environmental attributes in green markets. This paper considers the performance of eco-certification policy under circumstances where consumers cannot discern environmental attributes in goods, but are able to form rational expectations regarding the extent of illicit activities in the green market. The main results are: (i) fraud is less prevalent in green markets when entry barriers limit the number of firms; (ii) conventional environmental policies on polluting techniques increase the incidence of fraud, and can even preclude the use of non-polluting techniques which would otherwise emerge in green markets; (iii) voluntary eco-certification policies can decrease fraud, increase output, and raise profits per firm; and (iv) in cases where the socially optimal resource allocation can be supported, the optimal policy involves negative unit certification fees, positive fixed certification fees and is revenue-generating for the certifying agent.     

The changing status of water as a natural resource

This paper considers the way freshwater resources are perceived in an era of climate change. It is suggested that in many parts of the world water is moving from being a renewable resource (or continuous natural resource) to a potentially renewable resource (PRR). In some areas water is moving from being a PRR to a nonrenewable resource. Selected water problems from three continents are investigated in the context of this theoretical construct. Recent experience in the United Kingdom is then also investigated as a case study of these changes before brief conclusions are drawn.     

Forecasting extinction risk with nonstationary matrix models.

Matrix population growth models are standard tools for forecasting population change and for managing rare species, but they are less useful for predicting extinction risk in the face of changing environmental conditions. Deterministic models provide point estimates of lambda, the finite rate of increase, as well as measures of matrix sensitivity and elasticity. Stationary matrix models can be used to estimate extinction risk in a variable environment, but they assume that the matrix elements are randomly sampled from a stationary (i.e., non-changing) distribution. Here we outline a method for using nonstationary matrix models to construct realistic forecasts of population fluctuation in changing environments. Our method requires three pieces of data: (1) field estimates of transition matrix elements, (2) experimental data on the demographic responses of populations to altered environmental conditions, and (3) forecasting data on environmental drivers. These three pieces of data are combined to generate a series of sequential transition matrices that emulate a pattern of long-term change in environmental drivers. Realistic estimates of population persistence and extinction risk can be derived from stochastic permutations of such a model. We illustrate the steps of this analysis with data from two populations of Sarracenia purpurea growing in northern New England. Sarracenia purpurea is a perennial carnivorous plant that is potentially at risk of local extinction because of increased nitrogen deposition. Long-term monitoring records or models of environmental change can be used to generate time series of driver variables under different scenarios of changing environments. Both manipulative and natural experiments can be used to construct a linking function that describes how matrix parameters change as a function of the environmental driver. This synthetic modeling approach provides quantitative estimates of extinction probability that have an explicit mechanistic basis.     

Proposed Definition of Environmental Damage Illustrated by the Cases of Genetically Modified Crops and Invasive Species

Abstract: The introduction of non‐native plant species and the release of genetically modified (GM) crops can induce environmental changes at gene to ecosystem levels. Regulatory frameworks such as the Convention on Biological Diversity or the EU Deliberate Release Directive aim to prevent environmental damage but do not define the term. Although ecologists and conservationists often refer to environmental effects of GM crops or invasive species as damage, most authors do not disclose their normative assumptions or explain why some environmental impacts are regarded as detrimental and others are not. Thus far, a concise definition of environmental damage is missing and is necessary for a transparent assessment of environmental effects or risks. Therefore, we suggest defining environmental damage as a significant adverse effect on a biotic or abiotic conservation resource (i.e., a biotic or abiotic natural resource that is protected by conservational or environmental legislation) that has an impact on the value of the conservation resource, the conservation resource as an ecosystem component, or the sustainable use of the conservation resource. This definition relies on three normative assumptions: only concrete effects on a conservation resource can be damages; only adverse effects that lead to a decrease in the value of the conservation resource can be damages; and only significant adverse effects constitute damage to a conservation resource. Applying this definition within the framework of environmental risk assessment requires further normative determinations, for example, selection of a threshold to distinguish between adverse and significant adverse effects and approaches for assessing the environmental value of conservation resources. Such determinations, however, are not part of the definition of environmental damage. Rather they are part of the definition's operationalization through assessment procedures, which must be grounded in a comprehensible definition of environmental damage.