环境预测中的GAM模型

当原始序列属代数曲线型时，应用ＧＡＭ模型可以提高精度，从而避免进行ＧＭ（１，１）模型的残差修正二次建模。从分析ＧＭ（１，１）模型的缺陷着手，结合实例详细介绍了ＧＡＭ模型的思想形成和计算方法。     

纺织厂车间噪声的灰色GIM（1）预测模型

利用灰色ＧＩＭ（１）模型的非时序直接建模法原理,对纺织厂织造车间的环境噪声分别建立了等间隔和不等间隔的非时序预测模型。实测研究表明ＧＩＭ（１）模型优于常规ＧＭ（１,１）模型,且所需建模数据大为减少,预测精度更高（达９９．９９％）,从而拓宽了灰色预测的适用范围。     

废气排放量灰色建模新法初探

分析并指出了灰色建模常规方法的理论缺陷，初步探讨和提出了将原始动态序列数据经过线性或指数变换，采用黄金分割法取背景值的直接建模方法，并运用它预测某化工厂的废气排放量，研究表明，该法较常规方法在提高预测精度等方面具有明显优越性，从而拓宽了ＧＭ（１，１）模型在环境科学领域的应用范围。     

用工业废水排放量预测地面水CODMn灰色方法研究

ＧＰＭ（１）灰色生长曲线常被用于等距时序环境系统的分析建模、非等距摆动空间序列方面的应用尚未报道。本文研究提出了将非等距摆动空间序列经过等距化处理的ＧＰＭ（１）线性回归优化建模方法采用该方法所建的非等距ＧＰＭ（１）模型用于工业废水量预测地面水ＣＯＤＭｎ的实例表明，该方法简捷，方便、精度高于回归分析，有较大实用价值。     

GPSM(1)灰色模型在大气降水酸度预测中的应用

介绍了ＧＰＳＭ（１）灰色模型的建模思想，并将其成功地应用于某地大气降水酸度预测，其结果与实际情况一致性很好，表明ＧＰＳＭ（１）模型预测大气降水酸度是可行的     

应用GM（1，1）模型的简化算法预测废水排放量

从GM（1，1）的建模原理和模型结构特征出发，通过一系列的推导、变换、给出了直接从原始序列出发求解模型的方法，通过对某市废水排放量预测的应用建模计算比较，表明该方法是切实可行的。     

一类非等间隔序列灰色建模方法的改进

对一类非等间隔序列的灰色建模方法进行了改进，提出在原序列前一个平均间隔单位位置上假设有一虚拟值零，然后改用线性回归来求解模型参数，实例表明，不仅简化了建模方法，模型精度亦有所提高。     

浅谈GAM与GM（1,1）模型

对ＧＡＭ水环境预测模型提出了四点不同看法，与有关作者商榷，指出ＧＭ（１，１）模型与ＧＡＭ模型二者并无优劣之差，精度亦相当。     

GM（1,1）模型简化算法及其在噪声影响预测中的应用

对ＧＭ（１，１）模型经差分形式化及令定写成直线方程形式。据最小二乘法原理，原方程的参数辨识可借助线性回归方法来实现。从而使ＧＭ（１，１）模型的应用更显普及和实用化。     

灰色系统模型在总悬浮物预测中的应用

以１９８６－１９９４年东北某城市总悬浮物统计资料为依据，应用灰色系统理论ＧＭ（１，１）模型对总量浮物数值进行预测分析。     

Gold Concentrations in Abiotic Materials, Plants, and Animals: A Synoptic Review

Gold (Au) is ubiquitous in the environment and mined commercially at numerous locations worldwide. It is also an allergen that induces dermatitis in sensitive individuals. Gold concentrations were comparatively elevated in samples collected near gold mining and processing facilities, although no data were found for birds and non-human mammals. Maximum gold concentrations reported in abiotic materials were 0.001 microg L(-1) in rainwater; 0.0015 microg L(-1) in seawater near hydrothermal vents vs. < 0.00004-0.0007 microg L(-1) elsewhere; 5.0 microg kg(-1) dry weight (DW) in the Earth's crust; 19.0 microg L(-1) in a freshwater stream near a gold mining site; 440 microg kg(-1) DW in atmospheric dust near a high traffic road; 843 microg kg(-1) DW in alluvial soil near a Nevada gold mine vs. < 29 microg kg(-1) DW premining; 2.53 mg kg(-1) DW in snow near a Russian smelter vs. < 0.35 mg kg(-1) DW at a reference site; 4.5 mg kg(-1) DW in sewage sludge; 28.7 mg kg(-1) DW in polymetallic sulfides from the ocean floor; and 256.0 mg kg(-1) DW in freshwater sediments near a gold mine tailings pile vs. < 5 microg kg(-1) DW prior to mining. In plants, elevated concentrations of 19 microg Au kg(-1) DW were reported in terrestrial vegetation near gold mining operations vs. < 4 microg kg(-1) DW at a reference site; 37 microg kg(-1) DW in aquatic bryophytes downstream from a gold mine; 150 microg Au kg(-1) DW in leaves of beans grown in soil containing 170 microg kg(-1) DW; up to 1.06 mg kg(-1) DW in algal mats of rivers receiving gold mine wastes; and 0.1-100 mg kg(-1) DW in selected gold accumulator plants. Fish and aquatic invertebrates contained 0.1-38.0 microg Au kg(-1) DW. In humans, gold concentrations up to 1.1 microg L(-1) were documented in urine of dental technicians vs. 0.002-0.85 microg L(-1) in reference populations; 2.1 microg L(-1) in breast milk, attributed to gold dental fillings and jewelry of mothers; 1.4 mg kg(-1) DW in hair of goldsmiths vs. a normal range of 6-880 microg kg(-1) DW; 2.39 mg L(-1) in whole blood of rheumatoid arthritis patients receiving gold thiol drugs to reduce inflammation (chrysotherapy) vs. a normal range of 0.2-2.0 microg L(-1); and 60.0 to 233.0 mg kg(-1) fresh weight (FW) in kidneys of rheumatoid arthritis patients undergoing active chrysotherapy vs. < 42.0 mg kg(-1) FW kidney 140 months posttreatment.     

Trends in background levels of persistent organic pollutants at Kosetice observatory, Czech Republic.2) Part II. Aquatic and terrestrial environments 1996-2005

A multimedia sampling of ambient air, wet deposition, surface water, sediment, soil and biota has been performed at Kosetice background observatory in the southern Czech Republic since 1988. An integrated monitoring approach was applied to assess the current state, anthropogenic impacts, and possible future changes of terrestrial and freshwater environments. Average PCB concentrations in the individual matrices calculated from ten years of sampling on multiple sites varied between 2 ng g(-1) in sediment and 7 ng g(-1) in soil or moss. DDT concentrations were lower in moss and needles (2 ng g(-1) and 4 ng g(-1), respectively) than in sediment (11 ng g(-1)) and soil (20 ng g(-1)), while the HCH level was higher in moss and needles (5 ng g(-1) and 6 ng g(-1), respectively) than in soil or sediment (1 ng g(-1) and 2 ng g(-1), respectively). The highest average level of PAHs was found in soil (600 ng g(-1)), while it was lower in needles (230 ng g(-1)), moss (210 ng g(-1)) or sediment (210 ng g(-1)). Time related trends of concentration levels of persistent organic pollutants in all matrices were investigated. Moss and needle trend patterns resembled those of the ambient air, showing a slight concentration decrease of all compounds, except for hexachlorobenzene. The soil, water and sediment concentrations showed a similar decrease of PAHs, PCBs, and HCHs, but there was no clear trend for DDTs and HCB.     

Toxic and essential elements in blood from delivering women in selected areas of São Paulo State, Brazil

This study was designed to evaluate the degree of environmental contamination and possible exposure of pregnant women to toxic elements in seven selected areas of S?o Paulo State, Brazil. The overall median concentration of Mo in maternal blood was 0.53 μg L?1, highly significant differences found between sites (p < 0.0001). Cd was found to be low overall - 0.09 μg L?1 (0.01-0.58 μg L?1) - with mothers from the Coastal and Rural 1 sites having the highest levels (p < 0.016).Median Hg concentration was 0.60 μg L?1 (0.06 μg L?1-4.35 μg L?1); median Pb level was 16.2 μg L?1 (3.5-57.7 μg L?1) and no differences between sites were observed for both metals. Median Mn level was 16.7 μg L?1 (7.0-39.7 μg L?1), being highest in Urban 2 site (p < 0.016). Concentrations of maternal Co were found to range between 0.06 μg L?1 and 1.1 μg L?1 (median 0.25 μg L?1) and As level was 0.60 μg L?1 (0.10-3.8 μg L?1) overall, with no statistical significance between sites for Co and As. Median Se concentrations were found to be 64 μg L?1 (36-233 μg L?1), with the highest median levels found in Urban 3 site; site differences were statistically significant (p < 0.0001). Correlation for each element (between paired maternal and cord blood) was measured only in Rural site 1; significant correlation was shown for Hg, Pb, Mn and Co (p < 0.05). These findings may be interpreted as indicating low environmental contamination in S?o Paulo State, Brazil. These findings could also indicate that pregnant women have little or no contact with pollutants, possibly due to awareness campaigns carried out by public health practitioners.     

Long-term changes of heavy metal and sulphur concentrations in ecosystems of the Taymyr Peninsula (Russian Federation) North of the Norilsk Industrial Complex

The Norilsk industrial ore smelting complex (Taymyr Peninsula, Russian Federation) has significantly impacted many components of local terrestrial and aquatic environments. Whether it has had a major impact on the wider Russian Arctic remains controversial as studies are scarce. From 1986 to 2004, data on heavy metal (Cu, Ni, Zn, Hg, Cd and Hg) concentrations in fish (burbot), moss, lichens, periphyton, hydric soils and snow in and around Norilsk and the most northern parts of the Taymyr Peninsula were analysed. Very high concentrations of Cu (203 μg L?1 ± 51 μg L?1) and Ni (113 μg L?1 ± 15 μg L?1) were found in the water of the Schuchya River close to Norilsk. Heavy metal concentrations in burbot liver were highest in Lake Pyasino near Norilsk compared to other study regions that were >100 km distant. From 1989-1996, Cu (121 μg L?1 ± 39 μg L?1 SD), Zn (150 μg L?1) ± 70 μg L?1) and Ni (149 μg L?1 ± 72 μg L?1) snow concentrations were greatest in Norilsk, but were low elsewhere. By 2004, these concentrations had dropped significantly, especially for Cu-74 μg L?1 (±18.7 μg L?1 SD), Zn-81.7 μg L?1 (± 31.3 μg L?1 SD) and Ni-80 μg L?1(±18.0 μg L?1 SD). Norilsk and its surroundings are subject to heavy pollution from the Norilsk metallurgical industry but these are absent from the greater Arctic region due to the prevailing winds and the Byrranga Mountains. Pollution abatement measures have been made so further investigations are necessary in order to assess their efficiency.     

Distribution of antifouling biocides in California marinas

Antifouling biocides are used to prevent the settlement and growth of organisms on submerged surfaces. Irgarol 1051 is currently among the most widely used organic booster biocides worldwide. This study reports Irgarol 1051, its major metabolite M1 (aka GS26575), and diuron concentrations found in selected California marinas. Seasonal water samples (n = 46) were collected during the summer and fall of 2006 from eleven marinas throughout Southern and Northern California. The samples were extracted using solid phase extraction and analysed utilizing liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS-MS) with electrospray ionization. All three compounds were detected in all samples, representing a 100% frequency of occurrence and indicating widespread use around the sampled marinas. Irgarol concentrations ranged from 12 to 712 ng L(-1) (average 102 ng L(-1)), M1 concentrations were 1-217 ng L(-1) (average 31 ng L(-1)), and diuron concentrations were 5-27 ng L(-1) (average 13 ng L(-1)). In general, concentrations of both Irgarol (15-712 ng L(-1)) and M1 (1-217 ng L(-1)) were greater in samples collected during the summer, corresponding to the peak of the boating season. The detected diuron concentrations in most cases were greater for fall samples (7-27 ng L(-1)), and probably represented a combination of non-agricultural (rights of way) and agricultural applications of diuron in California. The maximum Irgarol concentration detected in California marinas in summer 2006 (712 ng L(-1)) was five times greater than the Irgarol concentration suggested as the plant toxicity benchmark (136 ng L(-1)). Twenty three percent of samples from California marinas in this study exceeded this benchmark, suggesting that detected Irgarol concentrations may be high enough to cause changes in phytoplankton communities in the sampled marinas.     

Solid phase extractive preconcentration of silver from aqueous samples

N,N-dibutyl-N1-benzoylthiourea (DBBT) impregnated onto a polymeric matrix, Amberlite XAD-16 was prepared. The separation and enrichment of Ag(I) from solution was investigated. Effective extraction conditions were optimized in column methods prior to determination by atomic absorption spectrometry. The optimum pH range for quantitative adsorption is 2-5. Quantitative recovery of Ag was achieved by stripping with 1 mol L(-1) thiourea in 1 mol L(-1) HCl. The sorption capacity of resin is 0.115 mmol Ag+ g(-1) resin. The relative standard deviation and detection limit was 3.1% for 1 microg Ag+ mL(-1) solution and 0.11 microg L(-1), respectively. The method was used for the determination of silver in geological water samples.     

Biogeochemistry of the Penobscot River watershed, Maine, USA: nutrient export patterns for carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus

Watershed exports of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, major solutes, and suspended sediments were examined during five water years in the Penobscot River basin, which forms part of the Gulf of Maine watershed. Mean annual exports of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the Penobscot River were 58 kg C ha(-1) year(-1), whereas cumulative yearly watershed flux of DOC during the study period ranged from 8.6 to 16.1 × 10(10) g C year(-1) and averaged 11.7 × 10(10) g C year(-1). Watershed exports of total soluble N (TN) and total soluble P in the Penobscot River averaged 1.9 and 0.02 kg ha(-1) year(-1), respectively. Companion studies in two other major Maine rivers indicated that mean annual exports of DOC and TN in the Androscoggin River were 40 kg C ha(-1) year(-1) and 2.0 kg N ha(-1) year(-1), whereas exports in the Kennebec River were 43 kg C ha(-1) year(-1) and 2.2 kg N ha(-1) year(-1). Extrapolation of results from this investigation and a previous complementary study indicates that estuaries and coastal waters in the Gulf of Maine receive at least 1.0 × 10(10) g N year(-1) and 2.5 × 10(11) g C year(-1) in combined runoff from the four largest Maine river basins. Soluble exports of Ca + Mg + Na minus wet deposition inputs of cations in the Penobscot system were approximately 1,840 mol(c) ha(-1) year(-1), which represents a minimum estimate of cation denudation from the watershed. Based on its low N and P export rates, the Penobscot River watershed represents an example of reference conditions for use as a benchmark in ecological assessments of river water quality restoration or impairment. In addition, the biogeochemical metrics from this study provide an historical baseline for analysis of future trends in nutrient exports from the Penobscot watershed as a function of changing climatic and land use patterns.     

Emission of isoprene from common Indian plant species and its implications for regional air quality

Isoprene is most dominant volatile organic compounds (VOC) emitted by many plants. In this study 40 common Indian plant species were examined for isoprene emission using dynamic flow through enclosure chamber technique. Isoprene emission rates of plants species were found to vary from undetectable to 69.5 microg g(-1) h(-1) (Madhuca latifolia). Besides, an attempt has been made to evaluate suitability of 80 common Indian plant species for planting programmes. Out of 80 species, 29 species were moderate to high emitters (10 to < or =25 microg g(-1) h(-1)), 12 species were low emitter emitters (1 to < or =10 microg g(-1) h(-1)) and remaining 39 species were found to be negligible or non emitters (<1 microg g(-1) h(-1)) of isoprene. About 50% plant species selected for planting programmes in India were found to be moderate to high emitters of isoprene.     

Occurrence and fate of androgens, estrogens, glucocorticoids and progestagens in two different types of municipal wastewater treatment plants

The occurrence and fate of fourteen androgens, four estrogens, five glucocorticoids and five progestagens were investigated in two different types of wastewater treatment plants (Plant A: activated sludge with chlorination, and Plant B: oxidation ditch with UV) of Guangdong province, China. 14, 14, and 10 of 28 target compounds were detected in the influent, effluent and dewatered sludge samples with the concentrations ranging from below 1.2 ± 0.0 ng L(-1) (stanozolol) to 1368 ± 283 ng L(-1) (epi-androsterone), below 1.0 ± 0.0 ng L(-1) (progesterone) to 23.1 ± 1.0 ng L(-1) (5α-dihydrotestosterone), 1.0 ± 0.1 ng g(-1) (estrone) to 460 ± 4.4 ng g(-1) (5α-dihydrotestosterone), respectively. The concentrations of total androgens (1554-1778 ng L(-1) in influent, 13.3-47.8 ng L(-1) in effluent, 377-923 ng g(-1) in dewatered sludge) were much higher than those of total estrogens (41.5-60.2 ng L(-1) in influent, 5.6-13.5 ng L(-1) in effluent, 13.9-57.8 ng g(-1) in dewatered sludge), glucocorticoids (171-192 ng L(-1) in influent, 2.2-6.3 ng L(-1) in effluent, N.D.-4.4 ng g(-1) in dewatered sludge), and progestagens (39.6-40.5 ng L(-1) in influent, 6.9-12.1 ng L(-1) in effluent, N.D. in dewatered sludge) in these two WWTPs. According to mass balance analysis, the removal rates of most target steroids in Plant A had exceeded 90%, while those in Plant B for nearly half of detected target steroids were lower than 80%. It is obvious that the treatment capacity of the activated sludge system (Plant A) is superior to the oxidation ditch (Plant B) in the degradation of steroids in sewage treatment systems. Androgens, estrogens and progestagens were mainly removed by sorption and degradation, while the reduction of glucocorticoids was primarily due to degradation.     

Effect of combustion variables on PAHs emission from incineration of cellulose waste filters from acrylic industry

Incineration of cellulose waste filter from acrylic industry showed the presence of 13–16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from the list of 16 priority pollutants with an airflow rate of 1, 2, 3, and 4 L min^???1 in laboratory scale quartz tube vertical incinerator at 700–1,000°C at an interval of 100°C. The amount of total 16 PAHs increases with the increase in temperature with airflow rate of 1 L min^???1 and was found to be 9.4 times at 1,000°C than at 700°C. Studies at 800–1,000°C showed the decrease in total 16 PAHs with increase in airflow rate from 1 to 2 L min^???1. The amount of total 16 PAHs increases at 700, 800, and 1,000°C with increase in airflow rate from 2–4 L min^???1. At 900°C, amount of 16 PAHs decreases with increase in flow rate from 1 to 3 and increases at 4 L min^???1. The lesser amount of 2A PAHs was found at 700–900°C with airflow rates of 1–3 L min^???1, while less amount of 2B PAHs was found at 700°C and 800°C (with airflow rate of 1–2 L min^???1), at 900°C (with airflow rate of 1–3 L min^???1) and at 1,000°C (with airflow rate of 3 L min^???1). However, the sum total of 2A and 2B PAHs were found to be less at 700–900°C with airflow rate of 1–2 L min^???1.