不稳定边坡治理方案的多层次模糊综合群决策

不稳定边坡治理方案的选择经常涉及到的是可行域为有限集的多层次模糊综合群决策问题。本文基于边坡工程知识,构造了不稳定边坡治理方案的评判指标层次结构,应用系统工程、模糊数学等知识,建立了不稳定边坡治理方案的多层次模糊综合群决策模型,从而使不稳定边坡治理方案选择更趋合理、科学。     

Beyond men and women: a critical perspective on gender and disaster

Consideration of gender in the disaster sphere has centred almost exclusively on the vulnerability and capacities of women. This trend stems from a polarised Western understanding of gender as a binary concept of man—woman. Such an approach also mirrors the dominant framing of disasters and disaster risk reduction (DRR), emphasising Western standards and practices to the detriment of local, non‐Western identities and experiences. This paper argues that the man—woman dichotomy is an insufficient construct with which to address the gendered dimensions of a disaster as it fails to capture the realities of diverse gender minorities in non‐Western contexts. The paper presents case studies from the Philippines, Indonesia, and Samoa, where gender minorities display specific patterns of vulnerability associated with their marginal positions in society, yet, importantly, also possess a wide array of endogenous capacities. Recognition of these differences, needs, skills, and unique resources is essential to moving towards inclusive and gender‐sensitive DRR.     

Decision‐making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands

A traditional view of decision‐making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the ‘top strategic decision‐making’ for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision‐making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision‐makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision‐making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies.     

京津冀突发事件总体应急预案量化评价

应急预案是应对突发事件工作的重要抓手,加强应急预案管理已成为新时期我国各级政府应急管理工作的重要任务。为提高京津冀应急预案质量,通过构建PMC指数模型来评价该地区突发事件总体应急预案,为预案优化提供建议。选取京津冀5项代表性突发事件总体应急预案为研究样本,首先,基于对预案文本的挖掘与分析以及借鉴已有研究关于应急预案评价指标的设定,建立了包含9个一级变量和57个二级变量的评价指标体系。其次,通过测算得出各个预案的PMC指数分值,据此对每项预案进行分析与优化。结果表明,5项预案的PMC指数均值为7.89,根据评级划分标准,5项预案总体表现良好,其中2项等级为优秀,3项等级为良好。除了在事件分类分级标准、恢复与重建这两个一级变量上没有失分外,在其他一级变量上都有失分,具体可以依据二级变量在这几个方面实施优化。     

Return or relocate? An inductive analysis of decision‐making in a disaster

This paper proposes an inductive analysis of the decision as to whether to return or to relocate by persons in the State of Louisiana, United States, who evacuated after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in August and September 2005, respectively. Drawing on interviews with evacuees in these events and extensive fieldwork in the impacted area, the paper seeks to identify the folk dimensions of the decision‐making process, assess their arrangements, and situate the process in the larger context of risk and resilience in an advanced society. It suggests that, despite the material and emotional upheaval experienced by affected persons, the decision‐making process is a rational endeavour combining a definite set of tightly interconnected factors, involving material dimensions and substantive values that can act in concert or in conflict. In addition, it indicates that there are significant variations by geographic areas, homeownership, and kind of decision. Some theoretical implications, practical measures, and suggestions for future research are examined.     

Gender and drought: experiences of Australian women in the drought of the 1990s

A unique collaborative, sociological study undertaken during 1995-7, explored the social construction of drought as a disaster, looking at farm families in two Australian states: Queensland (beef producers) and New South Wales (sheep/wheat producers). A decision was made to interview the women and men separately to test our hypothesis that there would be gender issues in any analysis of a disaster, but particularly one which has had so much long-term impact on individuals, families and communities, such as drought. Interviews were conducted with over 100 individuals male and female. We conclude that drought as a disaster is a gendered experience. The paper draws on the narratives of some women involved in the study to identify 'themes of difference' which confirm the necessity to maintain gender as a variable in all studies of the social impacts of disaster.     

Uniting multi‐adult households during emergency evacuation planning

When a no‐notice emergency prompts an evacuation, family members in different locations throughout a city may unite so that they can evacuate as a group. This paper draws on data from more than 300 interviews conducted in the metropolitan area of Chicago, Illinois, United States. The study uses discrete choice models to analyse the expectations of respondents regarding whether their likely plans for evacuation involve gathering spouses, parents, adult‐age children, and/or non‐family members. In addition, it addresses the matter of whether respondents plan to reunite with family members at home. Individuals' access to a personal car is the dominating factor in predicting whether respondents plan to gather a spouse. Being the parent of a child under the age of 18 years increases the tendency to report planning to reunite with family members at home. Both commute mode and car availability are not significantly associated with plans to reunite at home.     

Gender and Hurricane Mitch: reconstructing subjectivities after disaster

Much of the gender and disaster literature calls for more gender-sensitive disaster relief and research by focusing on the ways in which women are more vulnerable in a disaster or on their unique capabilities as community leaders or natural resource managers, which are often overlooked or underutilised in emergency management strategies. As well as seeking to overcome the (strategic) essentialism that is part of these calls and debates, this paper pays closer attention to gender identity and subjectivity as these are constructed and reworked through the disaster process to highlight the complexities and contradictions associated with women's responses to a disaster. This focus, while crucial to gaining a deeper understanding of the gendered dimensions of disaster, also complicates attempts to create more gender-sensitive frameworks for disaster response. It draws on qualitative research conducted with a number of women in the wake of Hurricane Mitch (1998) in Nicaragua.     

Through Women's Eyes: A Gendered Research Agenda for Disaster Social Science

Gender is a central organising principle in social life and hence in disaster-affected communities, yet gender issues are rarely examined by disaster scholars or practitioners. Building on findings from emerging and industrial nations, three key research directions are identified: How is gendered vulnerability to disaster constructed? How do gender relations shape the practice of disaster planning and response in households and organisations? How are gender relations affected over time by the social experience of disaster? The discussion suggests how analysis of the gendered terrain of disaster both develops disaster theory and fosters more equitable and effective disaster practice.     

Patterns of preference and practice: bridging actors in wildfire response networks in the American Northwest

The roles of bridging actors in emergency response networks can be important to disaster response outcomes. This paper is based on an evaluation of wildfire preparedness and response networks in 21 large‐scale wildfire events in the wildland—urban interface near national forests in the American Northwest. The study investigated how key individuals in responder networks anticipated seeking out specific people in perceived bridging roles prior to the occurrence of wildfires, and then captured who in fact assumed these roles during actual large‐scale events. It examines two plausible, but contradictory, bodies of theory—similarity and dissimilarity—that suggest who people might seek out as bridgers and who they would really go to during a disaster. Roughly one‐half of all pre‐fire nominations were consistent with similarity. Yet, while similarity is a reliable indicator of how people expect to organise, it does not hold up for how they organise during the real incident.     

Community support for wildfire mitigation at Peavine Métis Settlement,Alberta, Canada

This paper presents the findings of a study that explored public support for wildfire mitigation programmes implemented in Peavine Métis Settlement, an Indigenous community located in Alberta, Canada. Data were collected in a community-based study using interviews, focus groups and participant observation over a 4-year period. Results showed that support for the wildfire mitigation programme was influenced by local leadership, economics, community capacity and land and home ownership. The communal nature of land and home ownership on the settlement influenced support for wildfire mitigation that was conducted by the settlement at both the residential and community levels. Employment opportunities available in the community for settlement members for wildfire mitigation activities also increased support for the local wildfire mitigation programme. A local Aboriginal leader skilled in wildfire mitigation and existing community capacity was also seen as vital to settlement member support for the programme.     

How Is Household Vulnerability Gendered? Female‐headed Households in the Collectives of Suleimaniyah,Iraqi Kurdistan

This research tries to reach an understanding of the well-being of female-headed household members through a comparison to male-headed household members in the collectives of the Suleimaniyah governorate in Iraqi Kurdistan. Research was undertaken in five collectives in Suleimaniyah during the summer of 1998. The research contributes to the current gender and development debates which are concerned with improving the understanding of the specific gendered forms of disadvantage faced by female-headed households rather than assuming the universal poverty of this group. An understanding of well-being is approached through a broad conceptualisation of vulnerability in preference to a narrow poverty definition. That the findings of this research are complex attests to the multi-dimensional and mutually constitutive gendered experiences of vulnerability. The definitive conclusion to emerge from this research is a refuting of the rhetoric-fuelled stereotype that households headed by women are at a disadvantage in all the dimensions of vulnerability in comparison to households headed by men. The research also establishes the methodological necessity of examining intra-household distributive mechanisms that determine individuals' well-being.     

Chronic institutional failure and enhanced vulnerability to flash‐floods in the Cuenca Altadel Río Lerma,Mexico

The dominant paradigm in disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies has been seriously contested because of its reliance on interventions based on technocratic expertise. In the Mexican context, the influence of informal practices such as clientelism and cartelisation of the political system produces environmental degradation and vulnerability to disasters within the communities in the study site. This paper contributes to understanding of failed institutional processes and parallel practices that intensify vulnerability to disasters by contrasting the discourses of agents within a peri‐urban community in central Mexico. Employing the Situational Analysis Approach as a methodological framework, the study identifies divergent views and practices within the community, leading to different responses to disasters and to different perceptions regarding institutional performance. In addition, it finds that institutional decision‐making, based only on scientific and technical expertise, has resulted in unintended consequences that influence ongoing vulnerability to floods in the site under review.     

边坡工程集成式智能辅助决策系统研究

以智能决策支持系统（ＩＳＳ）的理论与方法为基础，以事务处理专家系统系统开发具ＧＵＲＵ为开发环境，将多种评价与决策模型和方法相结合，形成了一个应用于边坡工程的集成式智能辅助决策系统（ＩＩＡＤＳＳＥ），本文讨论了ＩＩＡＤＳＳＥ的设计思想，介绍了ＩＩＡＤＳＳＥ的基本结构模式，各部分的功能及其实现方法，ＩＩＡＤＳＳＥ具有定性与定量分析相结合的特征，可较好地处理边坡工程稳定性评价与加固方案决策分析问题。     

Influences on stakeholder support for a wildfire early warning system in a UK protected area

Projected increases in wildfire risk and impacts to human populations in the UK have prompted the installation of expanded management approaches such as early warning systems (EWSs). Newer iterations of wildfire EWSs help mitigate risk through rapid detection, often using high-resolution monitoring technology and instantaneous information collection. While existing research suggests that local social context plays an important role in the effective application of EWSs, little is known about factors that contribute to stakeholder support for these technocratic systems and their successful implementation in protected areas. This study examines support for an EWS in Northumberland National Park, UK, using focus groups with a broad range of local stakeholders. We found that diverse stakeholder understandings of wildfire, different perceptions of wildfire risk, and varied identification of values at risk collectively help explain mixed support for the EWS. Mixed support also was an outgrowth of distrust between several stakeholder groups, indicating a need for improved communication regarding wildfire risk management across stakeholder groups. Results suggest that EWSs adopted in multi-use protected areas shared by a range of stakeholder are most likely to be successful when stakeholders have shared understandings of the hazard and opportunities for collective planning to address its risks. We conclude that EWSs are a viable approach to wildfire risk reduction, but there needs to be a critical consideration of pre-existing stakeholder dynamics for effective EWS implementation.     

Decision‐making behaviour during urban search and rescue: a case study of Germany

The objective of assisting with tasks and decisions during incident response is to reduce the risks to victims and rescue personnel while increasing the efficiency of the rescue operation. Handling uncertain information during urban search and rescue (USAR) missions represents additional stress to the decision‐maker. The aim of this study is to identify the decision‐making behaviour of rescuers during USAR missions to pinpoint trapped or buried victims in debris in order to design assistance technologies and decision‐support systems that meet their needs. In 2010, a survey was conducted among 10–15 per cent of all German rescue personnel specialised in search tasks. One of the major results of this survey is that a subjective assessment of the reliability of information available from heterogeneous sources influences the rescuers’ actions and that there is no methodology for decision‐making involving uncertain information. In addition, the study found that compliance with procedures does not require assistance.     

The humanitarian common logistic operating picture: a solution to the inter‐agency coordination challenge

Although significant progress has been made in developing the practice of humanitarian logistics, further improvements in efficiency and effectiveness have the potential to save lives and reduce suffering. This paper explores how the military/emergency services’ concept of a common operating picture (COP) can be adapted to the humanitarian logistics context, and analyses a practical and proven approach to addressing the key challenge of inter‐agency coordination and decision‐making. Successful adaptation could provide the mechanism through which predicted and actual demands, together with the location and status of material in transit, are captured, evaluated, and presented in real time as the basis for enhanced decision‐making between actors in the humanitarian supply network. Through the introduction of a humanitarian logistics COP and its linkages to national disaster management systems, local communities and countries affected by disasters and emergencies will be better placed to oversee and manage their response activities.     

面向突发灾害事件的应急效能评估方法

通常在面临突发灾害情况下,难以迅速确定最佳救援方案,其中的重要原因是缺乏有效的决策支持。为此,提出了突发事件应急效能的概念,并建立了一个基于效用聚合的突发事件应急预案的效能评估方法。最后,以一个大地震灾害的想定为例,应用提出的应急灾害效能评估方法,对多个应急预案进行了评估,评估结果合理可行。     

Substance use among populations displaced by conflict: a literature review

This paper reviews the literature on substance use among populations displaced by conflict. Of the 17 publications presenting primary data retained for review, all consider populations in or recovering from protracted conflict, the majority (10) in non-camp settings. Most studies (10) offer prevalence estimates, suggesting that substance use (such as of alcohol, opiates, or minor tranquilizers) is common in some displaced settings. Five describe harmful consequences of substance use among displaced populations (such as HIV transmission, tuberculosis treatment failure, gender-based violence, and economic problems). Three studies suggest risk factors for substance use problems (such as gender, trauma-related conditions, pre-displacement substance use, and socio-economic factors); two examine qualitatively the gendered nature of alcohol-related harm and its links with gender-based violence. One study examines an intervention. The evidence base is weak. Findings are used to develop a conceptual framework emphasizing the risk environment to inform further research, to encourage debate among researchers and practitioners, and to enable the development of interventions.