国家《大气污染防治行动计划》健康效益评估

为了提高空气质量改善进程,2013 年国家发布了《大气污染防治行动计划》。本文基于空气污染与健康效益评估模型(BenMAP),对人口分布资料、大气污染与人体健康影响的暴露反应关系等进行了本土化修正,采用“支付意愿法”与“疾病成本法”相结合的方法,系统评估了《大气污染防治行动计划》实施后,PM_2.5 污染变化引起的环境健康效益。研究结果表明,《大气污染防治行动计划》的实施将在一定程度上降低PM_2.5 环境浓度,改善环境空气质量。如果《大气污染防治行动计划》空气质量目标全面实现,可以避免城镇8.9 万居民的过早死亡,减少12 万人次住院治疗以及941 万人次的门诊和急诊病例,实现的全国健康效益约为867 亿元/ 年,说明了《大气污染防治行动计划》实施的健康有益性。本文对政府部门开展污染损失评估及制定环境健康政策具有重要的参考价值。     

Assessing Health Benefits of Controlling Air Pollution from Power Generation: The Case of a Lignite-Fired Power Plant in Thailand

The impact pathway approach (IPA) is used to estimate quantitatively the level of health effects caused by particulate matter (PM₁₀) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emission from a lignite-fired power plant located in the Mae Moh area in northern region of Thailand. Health benefits are then assessed by comparing the levels of estimated health impacts without and with the installation of the flue gas desulfurization (FGD) equipment. The US EPA industrial source complex model is used to model air pollution dispersion at the local scale, and the sector average limited mixing meso-scale model is used to model air pollution transport at the regional scale. The quantification of the health end points in physical terms is carried out using the dose–response functions established recently for the population in Bangkok, Thailand. Monetarization of these effects is based on the benefit transfer method with appropriate adjustment. Finally, it has been found that the installation of the FGD to control SO₂ emission at Mae Moh significantly reduces adverse health effects not only on the population living near the power plant but also all over the country. A FGD unit installed at the 300-MW power unit can result, on average, in 16 fewer cases of acute mortality, 12 fewer cases of respiratory and cardiac hospital admissions, and almost 354,000 fewer days with acute respiratory symptoms annually. In monetary terms this benefit is equivalent to US $18.2 million (1995 prices) per annum. This benefit is much higher than the annualized investment and operation costs of FGD (US $7.4 million/yr).     

Health benefits valuation of regulatory intervention for air pollution control in thermal power plants in Delhi,India

This study estimates minimum marginal health benefits (morbidity reduction only) of air pollution control and total health benefits arising from regulatory intervention regarding the adoption of the World Bank emission guidelines (WBEG) for thermal power plants (TPPs) in Delhi. The Industrial Source Complex-Short-Term Version–3 (ISCST3) model has been used to estimate the contribution to air pollution from TPPs. The household health production function (avertive behaviour) has been used to value health benefits of air pollution control. The study revealed that the ambient air pollution due to TPPs is reduced by between 62.17% to 83.45% by adopting the WBEG. Annual marginal benefit due to reduction in exposure to air pollution by 1 μg m^?3 is estimated to be US$0.353 per person. Total annual health benefits for adopting the WBEG for TPPs are estimated at US$235.19 million. This study provides a novel methodology to evaluate health benefits of regulatory intervention.     

Application of non-market valuation to the Florida Keys marine reserve management

The quality of the coral reefs in the Florida Keys is essential to sustain nature-based tourism in the Keys. The recently established marine reserves (MR) are expected to improve the reef environment, particularly coral and fish abundance and diversity. In this paper, a combined model of travel cost and contingent behavior was estimated in order to measure the non-market recreational benefits of reef quality improvements. The results indicated that an average visitor would undertake 43-80% more number of trips to the Florida Keys and experience a 69% increase in the use values per trip, as a result of the MR-induced reef quality improvements. The above non-market value estimates were further applied to evaluating alternative management proposals for funding the MR program. It was found that the annual management costs of the MR program would constitute an insignificant portion--only around one to 2%--of the annual recreational benefits that the MR would generate. The results provide a strong economic justification for designing user-based funding mechanisms in order to make the MR program self-sustaining in the future.     

Assessing the efficiency gains of improved spatial targeting of policy interventions; the example of an agri-environmental scheme

GIS-based spatial targeting is increasingly recognised as a potentially useful tool to design more efficient policy interventions. The use of this tool has also been advocated in the context of incentive-based agri-environmental schemes, but there has been little work to date to estimate the level of efficiency gains which it may help to achieve. This paper investigates the requirements to arrive at such estimates, using a Scottish farm woodland scheme as a case study. This agri-environmental scheme aims to provide visual amenity and biodiversity. Maps of these two benefits are used to develop improved spatial targeting scenarios that deliver significant efficiency gains in comparison to the existing scheme design. The paper discusses the nature of the spatial distribution of the relevant benefits at the landscape scale and the data requirements for the realistic estimation of efficiency gains. It concludes that although much work needs to be done, the methods available today could and should play a much greater role in improving the landscape-scale design of existing land use schemes focused on the delivery of non-market benefits.     

Quantifying the human health benefits of curbing air pollution in Shanghai

Urban development in the mega-cities of Asia has caused detrimental effects on the human health of its inhabitants through air pollution. However, averting these health damages by investing in clean energy and industrial technologies and measures can be expensive. Many cities do not have the capital to make such investments or may prefer to invest that capital elsewhere. In this article, we examine the city of Shanghai, China, and perform an illustrative cost/benefit analysis of air pollution control. Between 1995 and 2020 we expect that Shanghai will continue to grow rapidly. Increased demands for energy will cause increased use of fossil fuels and increased emissions of air pollutants. In this work, we examine emissions of particles smaller than 10 microm in diameter (PM10), which have been associated with inhalation health effects. We hypothesize the establishment of a new technology strategy for coal-fired power generation after 2010 and a new industrial coal-use policy. The health benefits of pollution reduction are compared with the investment costs for the new strategies. The study shows that the benefit-to-cost ratio is in the range of 1-5 for the power-sector initiative and 2-15 for the industrial-sector initiative. Thus, there appear to be considerable net benefits for these strategies, which could be very large depending on the valuation of health effects in China today and in the future. This study therefore provides economic grounds for supporting investments in air pollution control in developing cities like Shanghai.     

The cost of crop damage caused by ozone air pollution from motor vehicles

The effects of ozone air pollution on the agricultural sector are an important environmental challenge facing policy makers. Most studies of the economic impact of air pollution on agriculture have found that a 25% reduction in ambient ozone would provide benefits of at least $1–2 billion annually in the United States. This paper extends existing research by estimating the benefits of a reduction in emissions from a major source of ozone formation: motor-vehicle emissions. An agricultural production model is combined with an analysis of motor-vehicle emissions and air quality to estimate the impacts of emissions from six different motor-vehicle classes, at both the regional and national level. The benefits to the agricultural sector from completely eliminating ozone precursor emissions from motor vehicles ranges between $3·5 and $6·1 billion annually.     

Air pollution due to coal washery projects and its abatement measures

The demand for washed coal in India has led to the planning of washeries. The sources of air pollution in washeries are described is this paper. A number of new washeries are going to be installed within the vicinity of Jharia Coalfield in eastern India to fulfill the demand for washed coal. Air pollution monitoring was conducted at four coal washeries of Bharat Coking Coal Ltd. (BCCL). Methods adopted for selection of monitoring stations and sampling and analysis of ambient air quality are discussed. Suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations in an industrial area, a residential area, and a sensitive area such as a hospital were found to be high and to exceed the limit specified by the Indian Pollution Control Board. NO_x and SO₂ concentrations in some areas were also found to exceed the specified limits. A high percentage of respirable dust in SPM indicates a health hazard. Benzene-soluble material was found to be 40%, which can be fatal to human health. Suppression measures are discussed for dust, and control measures for air pollution in coal washeries are proposed.     

Successful de-fragmentation of woodland by planting in an agricultural landscape? An assessment based on landscape indicators

Habitat fragmentation is the focus of much conservation concern and associated research. In some countries, such as Britain, the main phase of fragmentation occurred centuries ago and the focus of conservation management is now on restoration and recovery. Scenario studies have suggested that spatial targeting is preferable if landscape scale restoration is to be achieved, and that this should bring greater benefits than site-focussed activities but this has rarely been tested in practice. In Britain, woodland expansion has been encouraged through a number of financial incentives, which have evolved from instruments that encouraged almost any addition to the potential woodland resource, to grant schemes that have set out to restore connectivity to remnant ancient woodland. This study assessed the degree of de-fragmentation achieved by woodland expansion on the Isle of Wight and in particular the success of spatial targeting of new woodland planting implemented through grant aid in the JIGSAW (Joining and Increasing Grant Scheme for Ancient Woodland) scheme. Five steps in the re-development of broad-leaved woodland were tested using eight indicators - six commonly used landscape metrics, and two ecologically scaled indicators derived from application of least-cost network evaluation. Only half of the measures indicated de-fragmentation over the whole sequence of five steps. However, the spatial targeting did appear successful, when compared to equivalent untargeted grant-aided woodland expansion, and resulted in positive change to six of the eight indicators. We discuss the utility of the indicators and ways in which future targeting could be supported by their application.     

Policy evaluation of vehicle exhaust standards in Japan from 1995 to 2005 based on two human health risk indices for air pollution and global warming

Measures for vehicle exhaust emissions aimed at reducing either air pollution or global warming could have counterproductive effects on one another. Increasing diesel passenger vehicles, which generally have lower CO₂ emissions than gasoline counterparts, leads to increasing particulate matter (PM) emissions, while gasoline has lower PM emissions than diesel. It is said that stringent limits on PM emission factors discourages improved CO₂ emission factors. Without including both effects in a risk evaluation, one cannot evaluate whether the total risk is reduced or not. Hence, we evaluated representative exhaust emission measures based on risk evaluation for both air pollution and global warming. Considering consumer choice between diesel and gasoline passenger vehicles and emissions standards adopted in Japan from 1995 to 2005, we built five cases for vehicle policy evaluation. For each case, we estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as an index of human health risk caused by lung cancer linked to inhalation exposure of elemental carbon in PM as well as due to global warming linked to CO₂. The results of our risk evaluation reveal that the case adopting the 2005 new long-term Japanese emission standard reduces the human health risk caused by lung cancer due to air pollution by 0.6 × 10³ DALY, but would increase the risk due to global warming by 31.9 × 10³ DALY compared with the case of adopting EURO 4, for the same conditions of passenger vehicle choice from 1995. These results suggest that the characteristics of Japanese emissions standards are mainly designed to reduce air pollution.     

Population,environment, and development

The strategies for reducing population growth include social development and improvement in the educational attainment of women. The decline in Kenya's growth rate was attributed to high female literacy and reduced infant mortality. Another strategy for enhancing fertility decline is to reduce child mortality, particularly from preventable causes such as diarrhea. The entire cost of such a strategy to reduce preventable disease would be about $1.33 per 300 million taxpayers in developed countries. Family planning services must be expanded. Prevention of maternal mortality and AIDS would bring major benefits. Strategies for environmental protection emphasized the already existing plan of action set out in the UNCED document Agenda 21 in Rio de Janeiro. The plan has suffered from inaction. The estimated cost of $625 million was considered to be several times smaller than the costs of inaction. The elimination of subsidies in tropical forests would have an immediate impact. Natural resource accounting at the national level would include the value of natural resources. Pricing would change radically for gasoline if the costs of urban smog, acid rain, low-level ozone pollution, and global warming were taken into account. Strategies for sustainable development pertained to the preceding strategies and others indicated in the Agenda 21 Action Plan. If funding were better targeted to the poorest 20% of global population with high fertility rates, the accomplishments would be heralded. 1.2 million are living in absolute poverty, and aid for nutrition, primary health care, water and sanitation, basic education, and family planning amounts to only 10% of expenditures. An increase to 20% would mean a contribution from Americans of $7.50 per person or 33% of $25 thousand million from all developed countries. Developing countries need to lower their military expenditures, privatize public enterprises, change inappropriate development policies, eliminate corruption, and improve national governance. The debt burden should be reduced.     

Economic assessment of the health effects related to particulate matter pollution in 111 Chinese cities by using economic burden of disease analysis

With China's rapid economic development, environmental problems have become more and more serious. Particulate air pollution is terrible in cities with large and dense population. It may lead to adverse health effects and economic costs. In this study, we calculated the health effects of pollution caused by particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 10mum (PM(10)) in 111 Chinese cities in 2004 according to statistical data and epidemiological exposure-response functions. Using economic burden of disease analysis, an economic assessment of these health risks was also presented. In contrast to many previous studies that have examined individual cities, this study covered most large and medium-sized cities in China, which accounted for more than 70% gross domestic product (GDP) of China in 2004. The total economic cost caused by PM(10) pollution was estimated as approximately US$ 29,178.7 million. Mega cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin contribute relatively more to the total costs. The results will help policy makers in formulating more effective countermeasures and increasing public awareness to enhance environmental protection.     

Measuring the gains from improved air quality in the San Joaquin Valley

Many regions worldwide are experiencing rapid urbanization, and often along with growth in the local economy and population comes worsening air quality. Such regions typically find that addressing the additional challenge of polluted air is difficult. This paper reports the results of an assessment of the present health and related economic costs of poor air quality in the San Joaquin Valley of California. Further, it suggests how such assessments can support strategies to pursue pollution reductions that offer the largest near-term gains, by rigorously modeling the associations between pollution levels, demographic groups, and recognized adverse health effects.     

衡水市区大气污染经济损失估算

衡水市区的大气污染对人体健康、农业、建筑材料造成的经济损失是巨大的。运用修正的人力资本法、生产率变动法、成果参照法等环境经济学方法,计算出衡水市区1996-2000年各年的大气污染经济损失。以2000年为例,衡水市区大气污染经济损失为1.23亿元,相当于研究区域每人损失510元,其中大气污染引起的人体健康经济损失为12079万元,农业经济损失85.4万元,建筑材料经济损失175万元。由于认识、数据搜集、技术上的原因,本研究给出的经济损失数据只是一个半定量的供宏观思考的结论,可看作是实际损失的下限值。     

An Evaluation of Air Pollution Health Impacts and Costs in São Paulo, Brazil

The need to determine cost estimates of the hazardous effects of diseases is important in order to establish the priorities of actions for prevention and health management. The evaluation of air pollution impacts on health, based on expenditures, has been carried out, but there are obvious comparison difficulties among countries, as the health-per-capita investment varies enormously. In order to achieve a standard indicator, we applied the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) method to estimate the health burden and cost estimate due to air pollution in São Paulo, Brazil. The basic methodology was the utilization of dose–response curves of epidemiological studies conducted in São Paulo to assess air pollution and its health effects. DALY attributable to air pollution in São Paulo added up to 28,212 years annually. An indirect health cost attributable to air pollution resulted in US$ 3,222,676. This estimate refers to the children and the elderly population. These results give a preliminary and underestimated value of the burden of diseases promoted by air pollution.     

The benefits and costs of reducing emissions from the electricity sector

Recent federal policy proposals to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and mercury from the US electricity sector promise important improvements in air quality and reductions in acid deposition. The cost of achieving these reductions depends on the form and stringency of the regulation. In this research, we analyze the economic benefits and costs of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) as characterized in the supplemental rule proposed in June 2004, and the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) as proposed in February 2004. The assessment integrates a model of the electricity sector, two models of atmospheric transport of air pollutants, and a model of environmental and public health endpoints affected by pollution. We model explicitly the emissions of SO(2), NO(x), mercury and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and the effects of changes in emissions of SO(2) and NO(x) on environmental and public health. The manner in which mercury emissions are regulated will have important implications not only for the cost of the regulation, but also for emission levels for SO(2) and NO(x) and where those emissions are located. We find the economic benefits of CAIR and CAMR are far greater than the costs. Recent estimates of benefits of reductions in mercury and acidification indicate that our model captures the lion's share of quantifiable benefits. We also find that the EPA would have been justified on economic grounds in pursuing additional SO(2) emissions reductions beyond the requirements of CAIR.     

Improving Benefit Transfer Demand Functions: A GIS Approach

Methodologies for transfer of non-market, natural resource recreation benefits are an active research topic. This arises because of the appeal of modelling the impacts of possible changes in site quality or benefits at unsurveyed sites. However, successful benefit transfer must necessarily rely on development of reliable visitor demand functions that incorporate travel time, demographic and substitute factors. Previous efforts to include all of these elements in a single arrivals model are rare. By integrating data from numerous sources within a geographical information system (GIS) we have developed a model to predict the number of visitors to a recreational woodland in eastern England. Variables were classified into discrete groups that were combined into comparatively homogeneous zones from which to calculate visit rates. Poisson regression techniques were then applied in a stepwise procedure to assess the influence of each determinant. Our analysis highlighted both substantial promise and some caveats in using GIS for future benefit transfer work.     

Economic use value of the Belize marine ecosystem: Potential risks and benefits from offshore oil exploration

The announcement of plans for exploratory oil drilling at a number of offshore sites in Belize raised concerns about the risks associated with drilling, particularly given the socio‐economic importance of the marine ecosystem. The current economic value of fisheries and marine ecotourism is estimated, along with the potential revenue from offshore oil and potential economic losses stemming from oil pollution, under various assumptions on risk and uncertainty. Marine fisheries and ecotourism are estimated to generate around US$ 183 million per year. Single‐year estimated maximum revenue is higher for oil extraction initially but quickly declines; during a 50 year (two generation) period, total discounted benefits from marine fisheries and ecotourism are estimated at US$ 5.1 billion, compared to US$ 3.2 billion from offshore oil revenue. Following a hypothetical oil spill, discounted losses in marine fisheries and ecotourism due to perception and ecological impacts are estimated at US$ 912 million, with clean‐up costs and capital losses of US$ 6.1‐10.4 billion. Considering the short extraction life of oil resources compared to fisheries and ecotourism, the difference in benefits increases substantially in favour of the latter with a longer time horizon. A recent public referendum resulted in a 98% vote against oil exploration and a subsequent annulment of oil concessions pending environmental impact assessments.     

渠县近5年大气污染特征及预测分析

本文应用污染损害综合指数法,分析了四川省渠县近5年来的大气变化及其危害程度,并运用GM(1,1)模型对渠县未来8年的大气状况作预测。结果表明,渠县大气环境主要污染物为可吸入微粒,其浓度变化呈逐年下降趋势,从2008年开始TSP有明显下降,SO2与NO2含量较低并且比较稳定。通过GM(1,1)模型对渠县空气质量进行预测得知,SO2、NO2逐渐下降,TSP的浓度将大幅度下降,在未来的8年里渠县的空气环境质量得到大幅度的提高。     

Well-being for all? The social distribution of benefits gained from woodlands and forests in Britain

Well-being is a positive physical, mental and social state and has increasingly become an area of interest to researchers and policy-makers internationally. This paper presents results from research that analyses the well-being benefits gained by different sections of society through viewing, engaging with, and accessing woodlands and forests in Britain. We draw on 31 studies undertaken since 2001 and present a meta-analysis of quantitative data and a meta-synthesis of qualitative data to explore the range of benefits and associated activities in woodlands, and their social distribution. We also present a state-of-the-art typology of well-being benefits for woodlands in Britain. The findings illustrate the wide range of well-being benefits gained by different social groups through various forms of engagement with and activities undertaken in woodlands. We illustrate the wide range of meanings and values attached to trees and woodlands across different social groups. The evidence also illustrates how carefully designed and targeted interventions can be particularly effective in enabling and encouraging people to visit woodland sites, to participate or get involved in new activities and, therefore, to realise a range of well-being benefits.