Bulgaria Country Study to address climate change mitigation

Future developments of the Bulgarian economy, energy demand, energy supply, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected and evaluated for baseline and mitigation scenarios. Different methods and approaches are used at different stages of the study with a tendency to incorporate them in a single integrated resource planning tool such as the MARKAL-MACRO model. The results obtained indicate that the aim of Framework Convention of Climate Change to have year 2000 GHG emissions below the base year 1988 emissions will be achieved without further mitigation steps. Reducing the expected increase of GHG emissions in the decade 2000 to 2010 requires a package of mitigation measures to be implemented in the next few years.

     

Market-based mechanisms for controlling global emissions of greenhouse gases

Increasing worldwide concern about global warming has led to intensified international efforts to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The most important outcome of these efforts is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which came into force in March 1994. Although its signatories are expected to draw up plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the Convention does not specify how these emissions should be controlled. Since market-based mechanisms for emissions control have been increasingly emphasized at both national and international levels, this paper discusses both their advantages over regulation and the main obstacles to their implementation. The ultimate aim of the paper is to propose possible baseline criteria for the formulation of a global tradable permit system to control carbon dioxide emissions .     

Estimating the potential of greenhouse gas mitigation in Kazakhstan

As part of the studies related to the obligations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Republic of Kazakhstan started activities to inventory greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and assess of GHG mitigation options. The objective of this paper is to present an estimate of the possibility of mitigating GHG emissions and determine the mitigation priorities. It presents a compilation of the possible options and their assessment in terms of major criteria and implementation feasibility. Taking into account the structure of GHG emissions in Kazakhstan in 1990, preliminary estimates of the potential for mitigation are presented for eight options for the energy sector and agriculture and forestry sector. The reference scenario prepared by expert assessments assumes a reduction of CO₂ emissions in 1996–1998 by about 26% from the 1990 level due to general economic decline, but then emissions increase. It is estimated that the total potential for the mitigation of CO₂ emissions for the year 2000 is 3% of the CO₂ emissions in the reference scenario. The annual reduction in methane emissions due to the estimated options can amount to 5%–6% of the 1990 level.

     

Climate targets and comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions trading

In June 1992 a Framework on Climate Change Convention was signed in Rio de Janeiro, calling for the control of greenhouse gases, notably in the industrialized countries. Its formulation allows for joint implementation of measures to reach emission targets for greenhouse gases. Such joint implementation covering all greenhouse gases could form the first step towards a system of comprehensive emissions trading. This paper addresses both advantages and disadvantages of comprehensive emissions trading across different gases, sinks and sources. It concludes that in addition to carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, the inclusion of biotic carbon emissions and selected sources of methane is attractive from both the economic and environmental viewpoint. The uncertainties associated with emissions can be overcome by requiring a thorough review of trade proposals by a broad-based international supervisory body, utilizing a consistent methodology such as that being developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Finally, the paper addresses the central objective of the Climate Convention, which implicity sets a limit to greenhouse gases emissions and thus provides a guideline for the total amount of permits that may be made available in a tradeable permit system.     

Joint implementation: Biodiversity and greenhouse gas offsets

One of the most pressing environmental issues today is the possibility that projected increases in global emissions of greenhouse gases from increased deforestation, development, and fossil-fuel combustion could significantly alter global climate patterns. Under the terms of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed in Rio de Janeiro during the June 1992 Earth Summit, the United States and other industrialized countries committed to balancing greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels in the year 2000. Included in the treaty is a provision titled Joint Implementation, whereby industrialized countries assist developing countries in jointly modifying long-term emission trends, either through emission reductions or by protecting and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks (carbon sequestration). The US Climate Action Plan, signed by President Clinton in 1993, calls for voluntary climate change mitigation measures by various sectors, and the action plan included a new program, the US Initiative on Joint Implementation. Wisconsin Electric decided to invest in a Jl project because its concept encourages creative, cost-effective solutions to environmental problems through partnering, international cooperation, and innovation. The project chosen, a forest preservation and management effort in Belize, will sequester more than five million tons of carbon dioxide over a 40-year period, will become economically selfsustaining after ten years, and will have substantial biodiversity benefits.     

General equilibrium effects of a supply side GHG mitigation option under the Clean Development Mechanism

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is considered a key instrument to encourage developing countries' participation in the mitigation of global climate change. Reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the energy supply and demand side activities are the main options to be implemented under the CDM. This paper analyses the general equilibrium effects of a supply side GHG mitigation option-the substitution of thermal power with hydropower--in Thailand under the CDM. A static multi-sector general equilibrium model has been developed for the purpose of this study. The key finding of the study is that the substitution of electricity generation from thermal power plants with that from hydropower plants would increase economic welfare in Thailand. The supply side option would, however, adversely affect the gross domestic product (GDP) and the trade balance. The percentage changes in economic welfare, GDP and trade balance increase with the level of substitution and the price of certified emission reduction (CER) units.     

Community energy plans in Canadian cities: success and barriers in implementation

Climate change and sustainable development concerns have motivated some municipalities in Canada to develop community energy plans, which focus on energy needs at the local level for the development of efficient, economical and environmental energy systems. Five Canadian cities that were early adopters of community energy planning principles were studied to assess whether implementation has occurred and what barriers have been experienced. The cities achieved success in the implementation of energy management in municipal operations despite barriers in jurisdiction, perception of cost, communication and capacity, but energy management in the community had not been fully implemented and long-term changes were not prevalent. While reductions were made in the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced by municipal operations, the community's overall GHG emissions were not significantly reduced. Long-term impacts on a city's function and growth will be key if community energy planning is to significantly impact community-wide GHG emissions and energy use.     

Assessment of the greenhouse effect impact of technologies used for energy recovery from municipal waste: A case for England

Waste management activities contribute to global greenhouse gas emissions approximately by 4%. In particular the disposal of waste in landfills generates methane that has high global warming potential. Effective mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is important and could provide environmental benefits and sustainable development, as well as reduce adverse impacts on public health. The European and UK waste policy force sustainable waste management and especially diversion from landfill, through reduction, reuse, recycling and composting, and recovery of value from waste. Energy from waste is a waste management option that could provide diversion from landfill and at the same time save a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions, since it recovers energy from waste which usually replaces an equivalent amount of energy generated from fossil fuels. Energy from waste is a wide definition and includes technologies such as incineration of waste with energy recovery, or combustion of waste-derived fuels for energy production or advanced thermal treatment of waste with technologies such as gasification and pyrolysis, with energy recovery. The present study assessed the greenhouse gas emission impacts of three technologies that could be used for the treatment of Municipal Solid Waste in order to recover energy from it. These technologies are Mass Burn Incineration with energy recovery, Mechanical Biological Treatment via bio-drying and Mechanical Heat Treatment, which is a relatively new and uninvestigated method, compared to the other two. Mechanical Biological Treatment and Mechanical Heat Treatment can turn Municipal Solid Waste into Solid Recovered Fuel that could be combusted for energy production or replace other fuels in various industrial processes. The analysis showed that performance of these two technologies depends strongly on the final use of the produced fuel and they could produce GHG emissions savings only when there is end market for the fuel. On the other hand Mass Burn Incineration generates greenhouse gas emission savings when it recovers electricity and heat. Moreover the study found that the expected increase on the amount of Municipal Solid Waste treated for energy recovery in England by 2020 could save greenhouse gas emission, if certain Energy from Waste technologies would be applied, under certain conditions.     

Collective guilt mediates the effect of beliefs about global warming on willingness to engage in mitigation behavior

The present research examines whether collective guilt for an ingroup's collective greenhouse gas emissions mediates the effects of beliefs about the causes and effects of global warming on willingness to engage in mitigation behavior. In Study 1, we manipulate the causes and effects of global warming and then measure collective guilt. Results demonstrate that collective guilt for Americans' greenhouse gas emissions is stronger when participants believe that global warming is caused by humans and will have minor effects. Study 2 employs the same manipulations and then measures collective guilt and collective anxiety, as well as willingness to conserve energy and pay green taxes. This study replicates the effect from Study 1 and rules out collective anxiety as a plausible alternative mediator. Collective guilt for Americans' greenhouse emissions was the only reliable mediator of the effect of beliefs about global warming on willingness to engage in mitigation behaviors. The importance of collective guilt as a tool for promoting global warming mitigation is discussed.     

Renewable energy and sustainable development in the Pacific Islands: an issue of international aid

This paper discusses international aid issues related to energy supply and sustainable development in the Pacific Islands. Certain foreign donors have focused their aid to the region mainly on poverty alleviation, and have failed to support critical sectors, such as the energy sector, which is one of the main driving forces in socio-economic development. As an example, this paper analyses the international aid program of Australia for renewable energy in the Pacific Island region. It is recommended that, in future, foreign aid take up the challenge of promoting recipient countries' capabilities in sustainable development. A key strategy to be adopted by foreign aid should be strengthening recipients' energy sectors, particularly renewable energy systems. It is argued that this approach will assist the long-term socio-economic development and environmental management of the region.     

我国发展低碳农业的主要措施研究

在全球气候变暖和能源危机的背景下,农业是温室气体主要排放源之一,低碳农业作为应对气候变化的农业行动,越来越受到人们的重视。低碳农业的目标是减缓温室气体,实现高效率、低能耗、低排放、高碳汇的高效农业。在推动我国低碳农业发展的措施方面,总结起来主要包括减少碳排放、增加碳汇和采用其他相应的技术措施相结合。也就是通过一系列相应的技术措施和基础设施建设,减少温室气体总量排放的同时,增加耕地、草地和林地吸收二氧化碳的量,从而实现低碳农业的可持续发展。     

Global energy and emissions scenarios for effective climate change mitigation—Deterministic and stochastic scenarios with the TIAM model

The achievement possibilities of the EU 2 °C climate target have been assessed with the ETSAP TIAM global energy systems model. Cost-effective global and regional mitigation scenarios of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and F-gases were calculated with alternative assumptions on emissions trading. In the mitigation scenarios, an 85% reduction in CO₂ emissions is needed from the baseline, and very significant changes in the energy system towards emission-free sources take place during this century. The largest new technology groups are carbon-capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, wind power, advanced bioenergy technologies and energy efficiency measures. CCS technologies contributed a 5.5-Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction by 2050 and 12 Pg CO₂ reduction by 2100. Also large-scale forestation measures were found cost-efficient. Forestation measures reached their maximum impact of 7.7 Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction in 2080. The effects of uncertainties in the climate sensitivity have been analysed with stochastic scenarios.     

碳排放交易体系的政策灵活性:国际经验及启示

在《联合国气候变化框架公约》和《京都议定书》的背景下,越来越多的国家开始关注全球气候变暖的问题。考虑到碳排放交易体系比碳税更具有政治可行性,不少国家或地区开始实施碳排放交易体系,以最低的减排成本来达到温室气体减排目标。然而,采用碳排放交易体系,其排放总量是固定的,而减排成本是不确定的,可能会出现由于政策或外部冲击而产生的配额价格异常波动的现象。因此,为确保碳排放交易体系的成本有效性,政策灵活性十分重要。在理想情况下,碳排放市场具有完全的时间灵活性(包括长期的履约期、自由的配额储存与预借)和空间灵活性(即建立全球碳市场),这将对增强市场流动性、降低减排成本、缓解价格波动起到重要的作用。然而,由于政策设计需要考虑更多因素,实际上理想状态很难达到。本文将对国外碳排放交易体系的政策灵活性设计进行较为系统的分析和比较,尤其关注履约期的长短、配额的跨期使用、配额的抵消、区域碳市场连接等方面的具体政策设计,这对我国在7个省市进行碳排放交易试点以及今后建立全国性的碳排放交易体系有较强的借鉴意义。     

Alternative energy balances for Bulgaria to mitigate climate change

Alternative energy balances aimed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are developed as alternatives to the baseline energy balance. The section of mitigation options is based on the results of the GHG emission inventory for the 1987–1992 period. The energy sector is the main contributor to the total CO₂ emissions of Bulgaria. Stationary combustion for heat and electricity production as well as direct end-use combustion amounts to 80% of the total emissions. The parts of the energy network that could have the biggest influence on GHG emission reduction are identified. The potential effects of the following mitigation measures are discussed: rehabilitation of the combustion facilities currently in operation; repowering to natural gas; reduction of losses in thermal and electrical transmission and distribution networks; penetration of new combustion technologies; tariff structure improvement; renewable sources for electricity and heat production; wasteheat utilization; and supply of households with natural gas to substitute for electricity in space heating and cooking. The total available and the achievable potentials are estimated and the implementation barriers are discussed.

     

The Value of Linking Mitigation and Adaptation: A Case Study of Bangladesh

There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.     

有色金属行业CO2排放估算方法研究

通过对国内外有色金属行业温室气体排放估算方法研究现状的分析,将联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)温室气体排放清单指南、国际有色行业协会和环境科学研究中的一些常用算法,总结归纳应用于有色金属行业温室气体的排放量估算,从估算方法和结果上分析各种方法的优缺点和使用条件。以原铝生产CO2排放估算为例,对有色金属温室气体排放进行实证分析,为有色金属行业温室气体排放估算提供参选方法,促进有色金属工业的节能减排。     

Cities and the challenge of multiscalar climate justice: climate governance and social equity in Chicago,Birmingham, and Vancouver

The imperative of climate justice has been gaining political and discursive power in international climate negotiations. Yet scholars are just beginning to investigate how climate policies are impacting social equity in practice. This paper contributes concrete examples and a multiscalar analysis to this emerging understanding. As cities are increasingly important players in global climate governance, it examines cases from three cities in the global North that have made notable attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a socially just way: Chicago, Illinois; Birmingham, England; and Vancouver, British Columbia. These cases show that there is significant potential for cities to further global climate justice through emission reductions while enhancing social justice locally. However, they also demonstrate the importance of understanding just carbon mitigation as a multiscalar phenomenon. In each of these cities, leaders’ abilities to mitigate climate change in a just way are shaped by larger processes of changing global markets, political opportunities and constraints, and inconsistent national regulatory environments. To the extent that cities continue to act as important sites of the carbon mitigation necessary to achieve global climate justice, this research highlights the necessity of creating national and global political conditions that enable the implementation of just climate mitigation in urban areas.     

Effect of crude oil carbon accounting decisions on meeting global climate budgets

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change quantified a cumulative remaining carbon budget beyond which there is a high likelihood global average temperatures will increase more than 2 °C above preindustrial temperature. While there is global participation in mitigation efforts, there is little global collaboration to cooperatively mitigate emissions. Instead, countries have been acting as individual agents with independent emission reduction objectives. However, such asymmetric unilateral climate policies create the opportunity for carbon leakage resulting from the shift in embodied carbon emissions within trade networks. In this analysis, we use an optimization-based model of the global crude trade as a case study to demonstrate the importance of a cooperative, system-level approach to climate policy in order to most effectively, efficiently, and equitably achieve carbon mitigation objectives. To do this, we first characterize the cost and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions associated with the 2014 crude production and consumption system by aggregating multiple data sources and developing a balanced trade matrix. We then optimize this network to demonstrate the potential for carbon mitigation through more efficient use of crude resources. Finally, we implement a global carbon cap on total annual crude emissions. We find that such a cap would require crude consumption to drop from 4.2 gigatons (Gt) to 1.1 Gt. However, if each country had an individual carbon allocation in addition to the global cap consistent with the nationally determined contribution limits resulting from the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, allowable consumption would further decrease to approximately 770 million metric tonnes. Additionally, the carbon accounting method used to assign responsibility for embodied carbon emissions associated with the traded crude further influences allowable production and consumption for each country. The simplified model presented here highlights how global cooperation and a system-level cooperative approach could guide climate policy efforts to be more cost effective and equitable, while reducing the leakage potential resulting from shifting trade patterns of embodied carbon emissions. Additionally, it demonstrates how the spatial distribution of crude consumption and production patterns change under a global carbon cap given various carbon accounting strategies.     

有色金属行业CO2排放估算方法研究

通过对国内外有色金属行业温室气体排放估算方法研究现状的分析,将联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）温室气体排放清单指南、国际有色行业协会和环境科学研究中的一些常用算法,总结归纳应用于有色金属行业温室气体的排放量估算,从估算方法和结果上分析各种方法的优缺点和使用条件。以原铝生产CO2排放估算为例,对有色金属温室气体排放进行实证分析,为有色金属行业温室气体排放估算提供参选方法,促进有色金属工业的节能减排。