USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO ASSIST PARAMETER ZONATION IN GROUND WATER FLOW MODEL1

ABSTRACT: For numerical modeling of ground water movement in a real aquifer system, the aquifer is usually divided into hydrogeologically defined zones, each with its own parameter values. The responses of the system, such as head or drawdown, are often available only in some of the zones. The estimated parameters of all the zones are based on the measured response in these limited zones. However, the estimates for some of the zones may be very uncertain, and these zones are therefore not justified by the data. In this paper, an approach is presented to understand which zone may produce uncertain parameter values and should be lumped with its neighbor. This approach is demonstrated using a regional numerical model for pumping test analysis in the Nottinghamshire aquifer, UK. A step-by-step process is used in identifying the aquifer zones and estimating their parameters based on the principle of using the smallest possible numbers of zones and parameters for adequate representation of the drawdown response. After the parameters of each zone are estimated, the sensitivity features of these parameters are examined. The results show that the parameters in one zone can be estimated properly by the drawdown in another zone only when there is significant sensitivity. For transmissivity, sensitivity between zones occurs when there is significant flow between them. For storativity, sufficient sensitivity can occur without large flows between the zones, provided that one zone causes significant drawdown in the other. This idea can be extended to the flow model for a large aquifer system. If the aquifer is divided in such a way that aquifer responses are not sensitive to the parameters in some of the zones, the parameters in those zones cannot be estimated properly and should be lumped into their neighboring zones. In this way, a simple but more reasonable model can be built.     

Trade and recycling of used tyres in Western and Eastern Europe

Truck tyres can cause significant environmental pressure through the life cycle. The main aim of this paper is investigate to what extent international policy measures on foreign trade, international recycling and harmonisation of legislation can contribute in effectively reducing environmental pressure caused in the truck tyre life cycle. A two-region simulation model, representing Western and Eastern Europe, is developed that integrates the complete life cycle, incorporates environmental impacts in its economic analysis, is technically dynamic by accounting for learning-by-doing effects, and allows for variations in trade of new and old truck tyres. In this study the economic, environmental and social effectiveness of harmonisation and trade measures in the European life cycle for truck tyre is tested. Several conclusions can be drawn from the model simulations. First, the environmental effects caused by the trade of used tyres from Western to Eastern Europe are of limited impact on the overall environmental damage caused by truck tyres. The consumption stage is by far the main contributor to environmental damage. Within the marginal analysis of trade, harmonisation of disposal fees illustrated to generate very limited positive results. The private and external costs in the solid waste management (SWM) stage are too limited to have a notable impact on the overall configuration of the European tyre life cycle. The introduction of strict laws on tread depth in Eastern Europe has a much stronger impact on material flows than the harmonisation scenario. This suggests that domestic policy measures should be the primarily focus on interventions in this stage of the life cycle, for instance, by improving the management of tyre pressure. Because trade of used tyres has little impact on the consumption stage, this issue should not get priority in European environmental programs.     

PREDICTING BASE FLOW USING HYDROGEOLOGIC PARAMETERS1

ABSTRACT: A method is presented for predicting base flow using easily measured, or estimated, hydrogeologic parameters. A mathematical model based upon the theory of subsurface flow to parallel drains is applied to a small watershed in Oklahoma. An example of model application is presented for a five-year period of record from this small watershed. Three years of data are used to calibrate the model, and two years of data are used for model validation. Hydrographs of observed and predicted base flow are presented for the five-year period of record. We concluded from this limited application of the model, on a small watershed, that the modeling techniques discussed herein were valid and should be tested for longer time periods on a larger watershed to determine their general applicability.     

A comparison of sustainability theory with UK and European airports policy and practice.

There are three main theoretical difficulties involved in relating sustainability to aviation, and which a research agenda for sustainable aviation needs to address. The first is uncertainty regarding the critical thresholds of global environmental systems. The second is a lack of protocols for allocating permissible environmental consumption shares to, and hence targets for, individual enterprises or sectors. The third is differing value judgements of what natural features should be sustained. For the time being, these difficulties preclude determination of the degree of sustainability or unsustainability of any individual airport with respect to global environmental systems. Nevertheless, at this stage it can at least be said that since most economic activity has an adverse environmental impact, airports with higher throughputs of material and people will tend to be less sustainable than smaller-scale airports given similar technologies and regulatory compliance. This is theoretically supported and illustrated with waste arising as an indicator at reviewed airports. Despite governmental policies of sustainable mobility, there is a disjunction between EU and UK policy on airports and individual airport practice, and environmental sustainability theory. In the UK and EU, airport practice and governmental policy is to mitigate the impacts of aviation, but not at the expense of its aviation growth. This mitigation practice is summarised for the reviewed airports and presented in a framework that accounts for the suggested, interim approach to sustainability assessment.     

Two Paths to Industrial Ecology: Applying the Product-based and Geographical Approaches

The development of the practical side of the concept of industrial ecology has taken two different but interrelated paths during the last two decades: the product-based systems perspective; and the geographically defined local-regional industrial ecosystem approach. Both approaches focus on material and energy flows aiming at reducing the industrial system's virgin resource use and waste and emission outputs. The ideal has arisen to mimic the model of a sustainable natural ecosystem, which relies solely on solar energy as the input and creates cyclical flows of materials (and related energy cascades) between organisms and in the food chain. It is argued in the industrial ecology literature that wastes, as defined in human industrial system terms, are non-existent in the natural recycling system. In this paper, an application of the product-based systems approach is given with paper life cycles and a basic life cycle inventory model. An application to the regional approach is presented in the regional energy supply system of the city of Jyväskylä in Finland. The paper aims at discussing the two approaches in industrial ecology and considers their contradictory characteristics as well as their similarities. When the basic vision and the overriding goal is the local industrial ecosystem, the product-based approach can serve as an inventory tool to support the project. In this situation, the two approaches would seem to be each other's complement. When the two approaches are adopted as each other's substitute, they may support conflicting decisions for environmental policy and management. This may create difficulties in the implementation of industrial ecology. On the basis of both of the approaches to industrial ecology, the external environment of an organization is considered to comprise the societal material and energy flow environment and the natural material and energy flow environment .     

ELECTROPHORETIC WATER CLARIFICATION TECHNIQUES1

Only very recently has a limited amount of attention been focused directly on electrophoresis as a method for improving water quality. This approach has been proposed primarily as a method for removal of suspended colloidal material, although solutes can also be removed by this method. Very simply electrophoresis is defined as the movement of charged suspended particles in a dc electric field. Several electrophoretic clarification systems and techniques have been developed and evaluated primarily for removing colloidal clay from suspension. The methods should apply equally well to any negatively charged particulate matter. Design for optimal clay removal efficiency and operating cost efficiency has been based upon previous theoretical results and upon modification of the combination filter-el ectrophores is model of Bier. These systems and techniques along with the theoretical developments leading to their design are discussed. Results and conclusions are given for tests that have been concluded concerning the feasibility or practicality of these electrophoretic clarification systems for commercial use. These are viewed in light of various limiting factors such as electrical conductivity of the medium, quality of water desired, colloid concentrations and electrophoretic mobility of the suspended materials.     

Multi-objective optimization of waste and resource management in industrial networks – Part II: Model application to the treatment of sewage sludge

In the present article, the thermal treatment of digested sewage sludge generated in the Swiss region of Zürich is modeled and optimized from an environmental perspective. The optimization problem is solved using a multi-objective mixed-integer linear program that combines material flow analysis, process models, life cycle assessment (LCA), and mathematical optimization techniques. The treatment options include co-incineration in municipal solid waste incineration, co-processing in cement production, and mono-incineration with the prospect of phosphorus recovery. The model is optimized according to six environmental objectives. Five of the six single-objective optimal solutions involve splits over the treatment options. The results reflect the available treatment capacities and other constraints, aspects rarely considered in conventional LCA studies. Co-processing in cement production is used to the maximum extent possible when minimizing impacts on climate change, human toxicity, fossil resource depletion, and fully aggregated impacts (ReCiPe H/A), whereas mono-incineration with phosphorus recovery receives the bulk of the sludge when optimizing for ecotoxicity and mineral resource depletion. Four of the single-objective optimal solutions (minimization of fossil energy resource depletion and contribution to climate change, human toxicity, and fully aggregated impacts) outperform the reference case over the six impact categories considered, showing that the current situation can be improved in some environmental categories without compromising others. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that assumptions regarding the product systems displaced by recovered by-products are critical for the outcome of the optimization. Our approach identifies in all of the cases solutions in which significant environmental improvements can be attained.     

PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING FOR POLDER SYSTEM DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: An approach is developed for incorporating the uncertainty of parameters for estimating runoff in the design of polder systems in ungaged watersheds. Monte Carlo Simulation is used to derive a set of realizations of streamflow hydrographs for a given design rainstorm using the U. S. Soil Conservation Service (SCS) unit hydrograph model. The inverse of the SCS curve number, which is a function of the antecedent runoff condition in the SCS model, is the random input in the Monte Carlo Simulation. Monte Carlo realizations of streamfiow hydrographs are used to simulate the performance of a polder flood protection system. From this simulation the probability of occurrence of flood levels for a particular hydraulic design may be used to evaluate its effectiveness. This approach is demonstrated for the Pluit Polder flood protection system for the City of Jakarta, Indonesia. While the results of the application indicate that uncertainty in the antecedent runoff condition is important, the effects of uncertainty in rainfall data, in additional runoff parameters, such as time to peak, in the hydraulic design, and in the rainfall-runoff model selected should also be considered. Although, the SCS model is limited to agricultural conditions, the approach presented herein may be applied to other flood control systems if appropriate storm runoff models are selected.     

Remotely Sensed Data for Ecosystem Analyses: Combining Hierarchy Theory and Scene Models

Remotely sensed data have been used extensively for environmental monitoring and modeling at a number of spatial scales; however, a limited range of satellite imaging systems often constrained the scales of these analyses. A wider variety of data sets is now available, allowing image data to be selected to match the scale of environmental structure(s) or process(es) being examined. A framework is presented for use by environmental scientists and managers, enabling their spatial data collection needs to be linked to a suitable form of remotely sensed data. A six-step approach is used, combining image spatial analysis and scaling tools, within the context of hierarchy theory. The main steps involved are: (1) identification of information requirements for the monitoring or management problem; (2) development of ideal image dimensions (scene model), (3) exploratory analysis of existing remotely sensed data using scaling techniques, (4) selection and evaluation of suitable remotely sensed data based on the scene model, (5) selection of suitable spatial analytic techniques to meet information requirements, and (6) cost–benefit analysis. Results from a case study show that the framework provided an objective mechanism to identify relevant aspects of the monitoring problem and environmental characteristics for selecting remotely sensed data and analysis techniques.     

Using penalty functions to evaluate aggregation models for environmental indices

The purpose of indices is to summarize a large volume of information into a single number that is easy to understand and interpret. Environmental indices provide a composite picture of an environmental condition derived from a series of observed measurements and parameters. They are used as communication tools by regulatory agencies to characterize the state of a specific environmental system (air, water, and sediments) and to study the impact of regulatory policies on various environmental management practices. In the development of environmental indices, a few issues and problems have been encountered arising as a result of the abstraction of information and data. These problems are referred to as characteristic properties that include ambiguity, eclipsing, compensation and rigidity. These characteristic properties have long been identified and interpreted in Boolean (e.g., Yes/No) or qualitative (e.g., low, medium, high) terms. In this paper, we propose a new approach to describe the above stated characteristic properties on a continuous scale to evaluate and compare the behavior of various aggregation models. Our approach is based on developing penalty functions for each characteristic property. A water quality index example by Swamee and Tyagi (2000) is used to explain our approach. A detailed case study for a developing microbial risk index is also provided to show how the proposed approach can be extended to complex hierarchical systems. Results show that it is possible to improve aggregation models for index development. Future research directions to improve index development are also discussed.     

Identification and testing of potential key parameters in system analysis of municipal solid waste management

Life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC) are well-established methods used for many years in many countries for system analysis of waste management. According to standard LCA procedure the assessment should include improvement analysis, in many cases this is performed by simple sensitivity analyses. An obstacle to perform more thorough sensitivity analyses is that it is hard to distinguish input data important to the results, i.e. key parameters. This paper further elaborates sensitivity analyses performed in an environmental system analysis for a hypothetical Swedish municipality. In this paper, the method to identify and test input data that can be categorised as potential key parameters is described. The method and the results from computer simulations of the identified parameters are presented, and some conclusions are drawn regarding the robustness of the results for environmental impact from municipal solid waste management. The major conclusion is that the results are robust. Changes in results, when changing the preconditions, are often small and the changes observed do not lead to new conclusions; i.e., a change of ranking order between treatment options.     

INTEGRATED PLANNING OF RURAL WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION1

ABSTRACT: Development schemes to improve the health of the rural populace through prevention of the transmission of communicable diseases should be considered in the context of some kind of “Sanitation Package” to ensure effectiveness. The general practice of concentrating resources on limited objectives, like water quality improvement, is shown to be less effective than allocating the same resources to multi-objectives defined in the Sanitation package. Systems Dynamic Modeling based on the DYNAMO II language, is presented as a capable tool for sanitation systems planning.     

ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING GROUNDWATER QUALITY STANDARDS1

ABSTRACT: A model for estimating the probability of exceeding groundwater quality standards at environmental receptors based on a simple contaminant transport model is described. The model is intended for locations where knowledge about site-specific hydrogeologic conditions is limited. An efficient implementation methodology using numerical Monte Carlo simulation is presented. The uncertainty in the contaminant transport system due to uncertainty in the hydraulic conductivity is directly calculated in the Monte Carlo simulations. Numerous variations of the deterministic parameters of the model provide an indication of the change in exceedance probability with change in parameter value. The results of these variations for a generic example are presented in a concise graphical form which provides insight into the topology of the exceedance probability surface. This surface can be used to assess the impact of the various parameters on exceedance probability.     

Emergy Assessment of a Wheat-Maize Rotation System with Different Water Assignments in the North China Plain

Sustainable water use is seriously compromised in the North China Plain (NCP) due to the huge water requirements of agriculture, the largest use of water resources. An integrated approach which combines the ecosystem model with emergy analysis is presented to determine the optimum quantity of irrigation for sustainable development in irrigated cropping systems. Since the traditional emergy method pays little attention to the dynamic interaction among components of the ecological system and dynamic emergy accounting is in its infancy, it is hard to evaluate the cropping system in hypothetical situations or in response to specific changes. In order to solve this problem, an ecosystem model (Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP) model) is introduced for emergy analysis to describe the production processes. Some raw data, collected by investigating or observing in conventional emergy analysis, may be calculated by the VIP model in the new approach. To demonstrate the advantage of this new approach, we use it to assess the wheat-maize rotation cropping system at different irrigation levels and derive the optimum quantity of irrigation according to the index of ecosystem sustainable development in NCP. The results show, the optimum quantity of irrigation in this region should be 240–330 mm per year in the wheat system and no irrigation in the maize system, because with this quantity of irrigation the rotation crop system reveals: best efficiency in energy transformation (transformity = 6.05E + 4 sej/J); highest sustainability (renewability = 25%); lowest environmental impact (environmental loading ratio = 3.5) and the greatest sustainability index (Emergy Sustainability Index = 0.47) compared with the system in other irrigation amounts. This study demonstrates that application of the new approach is broader than the conventional emergy analysis and the new approach is helpful in optimizing resources allocation, resource-savings and maintaining agricultural sustainability.     

MODELING WATER UTILIZATION IN LARGE-SCALE IRRIGATION SYSTEMS: A QUALITATiVE RESPONSE APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Given limited available data and the present state of knowledge on the social aspects of irrigation, there is a need to develop new quantitative methods to measure water management performance in large-scale systems. A qualitative response framework is adapted to formulate a dynamic logit model of weekly field water adequacy and quantify indirectly farmer water utilization. Model parameters are estimated in a weighted least-squares regression using four seasons of data from a Philippine canal system. Estimated coefficients and independent model forecasts indicate greater effective use of rainfall than irrigation in sustaining high levels of water adequacy during the rainy season. Irrigation utilization is two times higher in the dry season, while system location has a much smaller but still significant impact. Utilization rates for both rain and irrigation showed considerable responsiveness to the prevailing scarcity of water. The qualitative response approach is well suited to the aggregated data available for large-scale systems, and allows advances in modeling dynamic water management behavior. Formal evaluation of the model will require further empirical applications.     

Life Cycle Assessment of a Wastewater Treatment Plant Focused on Material and Energy Flows

Life cycle assessment (LCA) was applied to analyze a food-processing wastewater treatment plant and investigate the economic and environmental effects of the plant. With the long-term operational data of this plant, an inventory of relative inputs, e.g., flow rate, chemical oxygen demand (COD), and suspended solids, etc., and outputs of the plant, e.g., effluent COD and suspended solids, methane production, etc., was compiled. The potential environmental effects associated with those inputs and outputs were evaluated, and the results of the inventory analysis and impact assessment phases of the plant were interpreted. One feature of this study was the assessment of the treatment plant based on both energy and material flows. Another feature was the establishment of an assessment model with an integration of plant operating parameters, system recognition and grey relation. The analytical results are helpful for the design and operation of wastewater treatment plants.     

Identification of road salt contamination using multiple regression and GIS

A multiple regression model of atmospheric deposition of salt, combined with geographic information systems (GIS) data on four classes of roads, is used to predict sodium concentrations in 162 randomly chosen streams in Massachusetts. All four classes of roads, as well as atmospheric deposition, were found to be highly significant in a model that explains 68% of the observed variation in sodium concentration. The highest salt loading rates are associated with interstate and major state roads with an estimated 22,500 and 17,700 kg of salt per kilometer, respectively. Our mass balance calculations indicate road salt is the major source of salt to the streams in Massachusetts. We examined some of the common statistical problems associated with the use of multiple regression for this type of analysis. Our confidence in the accuracy of the loading rates estimated above are limited by the collinear nature of environmental data and uncertainties related to model specification. Our results suggest multiple regression techniques can lead to overconfidence in the accuracy of the estimated loading rates and thus should not be used as the basis for policy unless the model is validated.     

Continuing the building's cycles: A literature review and analysis of current systems theories in comparison with the theory of Cradle to Cradle

Recently, the Cradle to Cradle (C2C) theory set ground in the Netherlands, propounding that environmental impact reduction can provide a positive economical impulse to stakeholders. The building industry has warmly received this approach and considers it to be a solution to the above-mentioned burden.However, if the building sector wants to implement C2C into their practice, a paradigm shift is required. Therefore, the sector must overcome the many difficulties it encounters while striving for an eco-effective built environment.Current sustainability strategies focus on reducing the negative environmental impact of buildings. The systems theory of C2C however aims at a positive impact; this could suggest that the state-of-the-art becomes inadequate when adopting C2C as a strategy for improvement.This paper reviews contemporary systems theories and analyses them in the light of C2C, focusing on closed or continuous materials cycles. The paper finalises by describing the hiatus in and correspondence between these current theories and C2C theory.From the study we found that C2C provides new features that help continue materials, energy and water cycles, just as the contemporary theories provide potentially useful additional material for C2C. Moreover, it reveals a striking difference between the state-of-the-art and C2C.     

Screening of environmental pressure from products in the Swedish railway infrastructure: Implications for strategic environmental management

This paper proposes a method to be used in environmental reviews as an initial tool for estimating upstream environmental pressures from material use in organisations dealing mostly with construction materials. Upstream environmental pressures are often omitted in environmental reviews from organisations and instead tend to be site specific, with a limited life-cycle perspective. This paper uses the Swedish National Rail Authority as a case to present the approach. An energy indicator is used to estimate the environmental pressure of material use.In the studied building project, a small set of products contribute to a major part of the material use and the material-related energy use. The energy use is almost exclusively of nonrenewable energy carriers. The three most important products are all homogenous and non-complex, which makes the energy indicator well suited for the analysis. The organisation can use the results to focus on the most important products and also to see which parts of the organisation contribute to the material-related energy use. Rail traffic in Sweden is almost exclusively from non-fossil-based energy carriers. This highlights the importance of the infrastructure to the overall environmental pressure of the railway. Consequently, if road transport were to shift away from fossil fuels, railways earlier environmental advantages would diminish, since research suggests that railway infrastructure is more energy intensive than road infrastructure.