An LCA-based environmental impact assessment model for regulatory planning

Assessing the environmental impact (EI) of regulatory planning (a lower tier in the Chinese urban planning system) has significant implications for improving the environmental performance of the future built environment. Current environmental impact assessments generally focus on microscale and macroscale, while mesoscale studies at region level are lacking. To fill this gap, this paper proposes an LCA-based environmental impact assessment model for regulatory planning, which focuses on embodied EI of urban construction and operational EI associated with the operation of the built environment. To ensure the regulatory plans both meet the environmental limits and fit well with environmental policy requirements, this paper also presents a new impact analysis method by integrating environmental carrying capacity analysis and distance to target method. The Statutory Plan of Shenzhen Futian Free Trade Zone 03-T2 is used as a case study to test and demonstrate the applying process and functions of the proposed method. Results indicate that the proposed model can effectively quantify the future environmental impact associated with a regional development plan, and can potentially be used as a tool for urban administrators to make decisions on regulatory planning revision and provide references for environmental management.     

An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word “scenario” appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.     

An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word “scenario” appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.     

The effects assessment of firm environmental strategy and customer environmental conscious on green product development

The purpose of this study is to examine why both parties (industry and consumer market) have mutual interests in protecting the environment but they still are hesitant to act green. The study used two-stage sampling from consumer market to depict ideal green product characteristics and reliable toy companies, and visit these companies for the second sample collection to examine whether the organizational eco-innovation strategy with customer value has a positive effect on green product development. In other words, the customer's benefit is an important factor for new product development strategy for green toys. This research shows that the willingness to buy green toys increases if most people in society buy green toys. This represents that customers are environmentally conscious and care about protecting the environment, or buying green toys is the result of a new economic trend and childhood education. The willingness to buy green toys increases if customers think that green products implies an enhancement on new product development to toy manufacturers. Further, if manufacturers are able to manage the difficulty of cooperation with all parties in the supply chain and difficulties related to production, they are willing to adopt customers' perceived value on green toys for their new product development strategy. It is rare to find academic research discussing the perspectives of both consumers and manufacturers in the same study because the research topic is very broad and many conditions must be considered. This research aims to find the effect of consumer-perceived value and company eco-innovation on green product development.     

Disparate perceptions about uncertainty consideration and disclosure practices in environmental assessment and opportunities for improvement

The need to better address uncertainties in environmental assessment (EA) is well known, but less known is how those involved in, or affected by, EA processes understand and perceive uncertainties and how uncertainties are considered and disclosed. Based on a survey of 77 Canadian EA practitioners, regulators, and interest groups, this paper explores uncertainties in the EA process, uncertainty consideration and disclosure in EA practice and decision-making, and opportunities for improved disclosure. Nearly 80% of participants indicated that all EAs contain uncertainty; however, uncertainty disclosure was described as poor. Only 15% indicated that uncertainties are sufficiently acknowledged in practice and, when disclosed, considered by decision makers. Perceptions about uncertainty differed significantly between those who conducted EAs compared to those potentially affected by development, suggesting that either communication about uncertainty is poor, or participants' understandings about what is considered ‘good’ practice are very different. Almost half of the participants believe that there is overconfidence in impact predictions and mitigation measures, and the majority indicated that if uncertainties were more openly reported then EA would be a better tool for informing decisions. Most participants did not believe that EAs that openly disclose uncertainties lack credibility; and contrary to proponents' tendencies to limit disclosure, participants perceived limited risk of disclosure in terms of project approval. The majority of participants did not believe that there was sufficient guidance available on how to report uncertainties, or on how to use that information in decision-making. Results indicate a substantial need to better understand how uncertainties are viewed and dealt with in EA; the importance of uncertainty disclosure and consideration in EA; and the risks and benefits of uncertainty disclosure to proponents, decision makers, and the public. We identify several opportunities for improving the practice of uncertainty consideration and disclosure.     

Impact of model parameterization on predictive uncertainty of regional groundwater models in the context of environmental impact assessment

Parameterization strategy impacts models' outputs and the associated uncertainty. This is particularly true for transient regional groundwater models where parameters can only be weakly constrained by insufficient observations. However, this is rarely investigated under any particular model structure. This study bridges this gap using a regional groundwater model developed to understand the impact of coal seam gas extraction on groundwater systems in a probabilistic framework. Two different parameterization schemes were implemented for hydraulic conductivity and specific storage. The first method solely relies on the relationship between hydraulic properties and burial depths. The second more complex strategy allows more spatial variations of hydraulic parameters using pilot points. The study provides new insights and practical guidance on the application of groundwater modelling for environmental impact assessment. The results suggest that the choice of model parameterization has a significant influence on predictive uncertainty. The model using the simple parameterization provides predictions with a much wider range than the model with a more sophisticated parameterization. This is because that the lowly parameterized model tends to generate more extreme effective hydraulic parameter fields unless the parameterization simplification converts the inverse problem to a (close to) well-posed problem that rarely exists for applied regional groundwater modelling. The potential impact of model parameterization should be discussed explicitly in groundwater modelling applications to support decision making to avoid misinterpretation of the modelling results.     

An expert system for environmental data management

In this paper we show the possibility of using expert system tools for environmental data management. We describe the domain indenpendent expert system shell SAK and Knowledge EXplorer, a system which learns rules from data. We show the functionality of Knowledge EXplorer on an example of water quality evaluation.     

Health,safety and environmental unit performance assessment model under uncertainty (case study: steel industry)

Performance assessment is a critical objective of management systems. As a result of the non-deterministic and qualitative nature of performance indicators, assessments are likely to be influenced by evaluators’ personal judgments. Furthermore, in developing countries, performance assessments by the Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) department are based solely on the number of accidents. A questionnaire is used to conduct the study in one of the largest steel production companies in Iran. With respect to health, safety, and environment, the results revealed that control of disease, fire hazards, and air pollution are of paramount importance, with coefficients of 0.057, 0.062, and 0.054, respectively. Furthermore, health and environment indicators were found to be the most common causes of poor performance. Finally, it was shown that HSE management systems can affect the majority of performance safety indicators in the short run, whereas health and environment indicators require longer periods of time. The objective of this study is to present an HSE-MS unit performance assessment model in steel industries. Moreover, we seek to answer the following question: what are the factors that affect HSE unit system in the steel industry? Also, for each factor, the extent of impact on the performance of the HSE management system in the organization is determined.     

An integrated assessment model for cross-country pipelines

The cross-country petroleum pipelines are environmentally sensitive because they traverse through varied terrain covering crop fields, forests, rivers, populated areas, desert, hills and offshore. Any malfunction of these pipelines may cause devastating effect on the environment. Hence, the pipeline operators plan and design pipelines projects with sufficient consideration of environment and social aspects along with the technological alternatives. Traditionally, in project appraisal, optimum technical alternative is selected using financial analysis. Impact assessments (IA) are then carried out to justify the selection and subsequent statutory approval. However, the IAs often suggest alternative sites and/or alternate technology and implementation methodology, resulting in revision of entire technical and financial analysis. This study addresses the above issues by developing an integrated framework for project feasibility analysis with the application of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique. The model considers technical analysis (TA), socioeconomic IA (SEIA) and environmental IA (EIA) in an integrated framework to select the best project from a few alternative feasible projects. Subsequent financial analysis then justifies the selection. The entire methodology has been explained here through a case application on cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India.     

Application of fuzzy DEMATEL to develop a cause and effect model of municipal solid waste management in Metro Manila

The municipal solid waste management (MSW) evaluation is usually evaluated in subjective and qualitative in nature described in linguistic information; it is very difficult for expert groups to express the preferences using exact numerical values. A MSW expert group is consulted in order to mirror how government officials might reach a cause-effect model regarding MSW management in Metro Manila. A critical issue regarding this is how the expert group can better evaluate the MSW management criteria in uncertainty. A cause and effect model development can help the processing of decision making problem. The Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) not only can convert the relations between cause and effect of criteria into a model but also can be used as a way to handle the inner dependences within a set of criteria. The post survey is further discussed and proved the validity result.     

A strategic management model for evaluation of health,safety and environmental performance

Strategic health, safety, and environmental management system (HSE-MS) involves systematic and cooperative planning in each phase of the lifecycle of a project to ensure that interaction among the industry group, client, contractor, stakeholder, and host community exists with the highest level of health, safety, and environmental standard performances. Therefore, it seems necessary to assess the HSE-MS performance of contractor(s) by a comparative strategic management model with the aim of continuous improvement. The present Strategic Management Model (SMM) has been illustrated by a case study and the results show that the model is a suitable management tool for decision making in a contract environment, especially in oil and gas fields and based on accepted international standards within the framework of management deming cycle. To develop this model, a data bank has been created, which includes the statistical data calculated by converting the HSE performance qualitative data into quantitative values. Based on this fact, the structure of the model has been formed by defining HSE performance indicators according to the HSE-MS model. Therefore, 178 indicators have been selected which have been grouped into four attributes. Model output provides quantitative measures of HSE-MS performance as a percentage of an ideal level with maximum possible score for each attribute. Defining the strengths and weaknesses of the contractor(s) is another capability of this model. On the other hand, this model provides a ranking that could be used as the basis for decision making at the contractors’ pre-qualification phase or during the execution of the project.     

An approach to deal with uncertainty in energy and environmental planning: the MARKAL case

This paper presents a new concept to include uncertainty management in energy and environmental planning models developed in algebraic modeling languages. SETSTOCH is a tool for linking algebraic modeling languages with specialized stochastic programming solvers. Its main role is to retrieve from the modeling language a dynamically ordered core model (baseline scenario) that is sent automatically to the stochastic solver. The case presented herein concerns such a study realized with the IEAMARKAL model used by many research teams around the world.     

An investigation of environmental and sustainability discourses associated with the substantive purposes of environmental assessment

This paper investigates the discursive construction of the substantive purposes of environmental assessment (EA). It addresses these purposes by exploring the complex and often multifaceted linkages between political factors and plural views of democracy, public participation, and the role of science that are embedded in environmental and sustainability discourses. The interaction between policy-making and public actors leads to the formulation of divergent and potentially competing rationales for public participation, and for social appraisal more generally. Participatory approaches have also given impetus to the development of several interpretations on the role of science in assessment procedures. Science is important in mediating public participation and the two are therefore reciprocally linked. This leads to discourses that become manifest in the construction of substantive purposes. Discourse analysis in EA is a relevant method for examining trends and patterns in sustainable development. It is argued that public participation is an important, if not decisive, variable in the articulation and civil legitimacy of certain purposes. A general proposition that results from this paper is that EA, although typically presented as an objective scientific tool, is an intrinsically normative process. Enhanced knowledge on the construction, and reconstruction over time, of substantive purposes is required if environmental and sustainability discourses are to be used and understood as meaningful analytical instruments to assess the socio-political implications of EA.     

Knowledge brokerage - potential for increased capacities and shared power in impact assessment

Constructive and collaborative planning theory has exposed the perceived limitations of public participation in impact assessment. At strategic levels of assessment the established norm can be misleading and practice is illusive. For example, debates on SEA effectiveness recognize insufficiencies, but are often based on questionable premises. The authors of this paper argue that public participation in strategic assessment requires new forms of information and engagement, consistent with the complexity of the issues at these levels and that strategic assessments can act as knowledge brokerage instruments with the potential to generate more participative environments and attitudes. The paper explores barriers and limitations, as well as the role of knowledge brokerage in stimulating the engagement of the public, through learning-oriented processes and responsibility sharing in more participative models of governance. The paper concludes with a discussion on building and inter-change of knowledge, towards creative solutions to identified problems, stimulating learning processes, largely beyond simple information transfer mechanisms through consultative processes. The paper argues fundamentally for the need to conceive strategic assessments as learning platforms and design knowledge brokerage opportunities explicitly as a means to enhance learning processes and power sharing in IA.     

Techno-economic and environmental assessment of wastewater management systems: Life cycle approach

The septic-tank and tanker (STT) system is a traditional wastewater management practice commonly used in many developing countries. The system is based on septic tanks that are pumped out by sewage tankers on a regular basis. Although the STT system is gradually being replaced by conventional gravity sewers (CGS), the high capital cost of this shift remains a major obstacle. This research aims to investigate the economic feasibility and environmental footprint of an alternative wastewater management system compared to existing sanitation systems. The study examines the small-bore sewers (SBS) system which utilizes the existing septic tanks to separate solids from gravity-conveyed effluent. A comparative assessment of the three systems (STT, CGS, and SBS) along with their treatment facilities was conducted on a residential area in the United Arab Emirates. Local design criteria of the SBS system were proposed based on current CGS guidelines and international SBS standards. A cost-integrated life cycle assessment (LCA) was carried out in order to evaluate the environmental and economic aspects of the three management strategies. The total present value of the SBS strategy was found to be significantly higher than those of STT and CGS, respectively. Moreover, a 67% smaller treatment plant was sufficient to serve the SBS effluent. The LCA results revealed that the CGS strategy imparted the highest damage to the environment in all impact categories considered including global warming potential, whereas, the STT system produced a higher impact than SBS in six out of the eleven tested impact categories. Overall, while the STT strategy was the least financially feasible, the CGS had the largest environmental footprint. The eco-efficiency assessment revealed that the SBS strategy was the most favored among the examined strategies.     

Tailoring a non-path-dependent model for environmental risk management and polycentric urban land-use planning

This study attempts to develop a non-path-dependent model for environmental risk management and polycentric urban land-use planning in Gorgan Township area, Iran. Applying three suitability layers of environmental risk (soil erosion, flood risk, fire risk, and land susceptibility), urbanization potential, and integrated surface (environmental risk plus urbanization potential layers), a non-path-dependent Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model was configured to execute three scenarios of polycentric urban growth allocation. Specifically, the modeling approach improved the traditional functionality of the CA-MC model from a prediction algorithm into an innovative land allocation tool. Besides, due to its flexibility, the non-path-dependent model was able to explicitly include different characteristics of the landscape structure ranging from physical land attributes to landscape functions and processes (natural hazards). Accordingly, three polycentric urban growth allocation efforts were undertaken and compared in terms of connectivity and compactness of the resultant patterns and consumption of other land resources. Based on results, the polycentric allocation procedure based on integrated suitability layer produced a more manageable pattern of urban landscape, while the growth option based on environmental risk layer was more successful for protecting farmlands against excessive urbanization. This study suggests that polycentric urban land-use planning under the strategy of rural land development programs is an available option for designing an urban landscape with lower exposure to natural hazards and more economic benefits to rural residents. Finally, the non-path-dependent modeling is a recommended approach, when highly flexible and interactive decision-support systems as well as trend-breaking scenarios are desired.     

A Bayesian approach for incorporating uncertainty and data worth in environmental projects

A data worth model is presented for the analysis of alternative sampling schemes in a special project where decisions have to be made under uncertainty. This model is part of a comprehensive risk analysis algorthm with the acronym BUDA. The statistical framework in BUDA is Bayesian in nature and incorporates both parameter uncertainty and natural variability. In BUDA a project iterates among the analyst, the decision maker, and the field work. As part of the analysis, a data worth model calculates the value of a data campaign before the actual field work, thereby allowing the identification of an optimum data collection scheme. A goal function which depicts the objectives of a project is used to discriminate among different alternatives. A Latin hypercube sampling scheme is used to propagate parameter uncertainties to the goal function. In our example the uncertain parameters are the parameters which describe the geostatistical properties of saturated hydraulic conductivity in a Molasse environment. Our results indicated that failing to account for parameter uncertainty produces unrealistically optimistic results, while ignoring the spatial structure can lead to an inefficient use of the existing data.