南黄海地震的韵律特征

分析研究了南黄海地震在不同的时间层次上高低起伏的韵律特征。时间层次可分为地震期(几百年)、地震幕(几十年)、地震阶(几年)。并且指出,地震期中6级以上强震累积频度呈指数型分布,这是一个地震大轮回的整体性活动标志。本文还计算了第五活跃幕和它的四个地震阶的时间分维值,结果表明有较好的一致性。这种自相似特性也正是在不同时间层次上地震活动存在强弱相间的韵律特征的证明。     

西安北部地区强震孕育深部背景研究

本文通过对地震P波速度场、Q值分布、VP/VS分布和地质构造的研究,探讨了西安北部地区强震分布的深部背景.结果表明在该地区很可能存在深层物质上升,从而表现出地震活动与P波速度场、Q值分布和VP/VS分布的相关性.     

渤海地区近期地震活动特征及其趋势分析

渤海及其邻区是我国东部地震较活跃的地区之一,历史上曾发生过多次强震,现今小震活动也较活跃,并曾显示出某些异常。本文对渤海地区近期地震时、空分布特征,强度分带特征及地震活动趋势进行了分析研究。     

新疆乌恰—伽师地区强震活动与防震减灾对策初步研究

新疆乌恰—伽师地区由于其特殊的地理位置和复杂的构造环境，频繁发生强震。本文对该区域构造、现代应力场的分布和强震活动特征以及这样一个地震重灾区的防震减灾对策进行了初步分析研究。区内活动构造极为发育，为强震活动提供了背景；强震震源机制解研究表明，区内主要受近南北向的水平压应力为主，震源断错具有不同性质。近半个世纪以来该区遭受多次７级强震、数次６级地震灾害，特别是１９９７年１月２１日至４月１６日伽师县连续发生７次６级强震，给该县造成了巨大的经济损失并严重影响了社会经济发展。文中就如何提高该区防御地震能力，减轻震害损失提出了几点具体对策和适合该区大震应急的实施办法，可供乌恰—伽师多震区综合防震减灾工作参考。     

胶东半岛及近海地区近期地震活动性分析

本文对胶东半岛及邻近海域近二十年来地震活动的时空强分布特征进行了统计分析,其结果表明:(1)该地区地震活动频次和强度存时间分布上具有3.5年左右的准周期性变化特征:(2)该区内发生的 M_L>4.0级地震之前,多数曾出现不同程度的 b 值异常;(3)1980年5月14日威海4.6级地震之前,地震活动图象曾出现小震空区。另外运用地震活动性分析的结果对当前该地区的地震形势进行了分析。     

地震活动性参数空间扫描追踪及其预报意义

本研究开发了多项地震活动性参数的空间自动扫描程序,能以屏幕显示及打印输出的方式给出各参数的二维等值线图和三维曲面图,使地震活动性强弱的空间分布直观化与形象化。利用本项新技术,对晋冀蒙地区近20年地震活动性系统地进行了多参数的空间动态扫描追踪。结果表明,本区6级左右地震前1、2年,震中区附近A值、E~(1/2)值等参数明显呈高值(峰区),而b值则为低值(谷区),未来强震发生于其中或边缘;在无强震发生时段,地震活动性参数的空间图象则一般呈现相对均匀分布。此过程似显示了强震前区域地震活动性由“白脸”向“花脸”的转化,反映了孕震系统有序度的增加。由此认为,应用这一技术,可以系统追踪地震活动性的演化全貌,获取较完整的地震孕育的空间动态信息,从而有助于选择未来1、2年左右的强震危险区,以及实现源的过程追踪和场的动态监视,具有一定的实用价值。     

由地震活动参数分析郯城—庐江断裂带中南段现今活动习性及强震、中强震危险性

根据近38年的地震资料,利用地震活动参数值组合、b值空间分布、断裂带分段,结合历史地震及构造背景的综合分析方法,分析了郯城—庐江断裂带中南段现今地震活动习性,判别出潜在的强震、中强震危险段落。研究结果表明:郯城—庐江断裂带中南段存在着6个具有不同现今活动习性的分段落,其中,郯城—泗洪段断层面的现今活动习性处于高应力背景下的相对闭锁状态,是未来最有可能发生强震的段落;九江段于2005年发生了5.7级地震,积累多年的能量已经释放,闭锁状态已被打开,现处于震后震源断层面应力调整阶段,出现了低b值、高应力的状态,因此,短期内不可能再复发中强以上地震;潍坊—莒县段、定远段、合肥—庐江段、宿松段的现今活动则处于低应力水平状态,较短时期内复发中强以上地震的可能性较小。     

地震分布多重分形特征的中期预报意义探讨

讨论了地球岩石圈的自组织临界状态和地震发生的非局域性与多重标度分形统计特征。研究了地震多重分形性质的计算方法及其应用于地震预报的前景。采用推广ＧＰ算法从典型震区的地震数据计算地震多重分形分布的广义维数谱和奇异性谱以确立较敏感的强震前兆,对于不同算法进行了精度、数据量要求及适用范围的比较。研究结果表明：地震分布的多重分形维数谱和奇异性谱对于一些典型震区的强震发生具有中期预报价值。     

大华北第四活动期地震的集中与分散活动

本文通过对大华北第四地震活动期的研究,发现该地区地震有集中活动与分散活动交替出现的特征。在集中活动时,地震主要分布在华北平原中部至渤海湾一带。几次集中活动的位置相对稳定。分散活动时,基本扩散在大华北地区的外围。文中还对大华北地震活动趋势进行了估计。分析认为,未来强震活动区域有可能仍位于上述集中活动主体区域内。     

强震活动时-经-纬分布特性的统计分析

<正> 不少人认为,强震活动可能与太阳活动及地球自转等环境因子有关。因此,强震活动也可能呈现-定的时间-纬度及时间-经度分布特性。最典型的例子是存在着沿纬度变化方向迁移的地震活动波,如D-波等。本文用统计方法分析研究中国大陆强震活动的时-经-纬分布特性,并将初步研究结果试用于强震危险性估计。     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

The cultural politics of mining and natural disaster in Indonesia: by fire and sword

Natural disasters are inevitably the outcome of cultural agonisms. The cultural politics of natural disasters are shaped by competing claims and conceptions of ‘nature’. Recent disasters in Indonesia are directly linked to these contending conceptions and the ways in which different social groups imagine risk and reward. The Sidoarjo volcanic mudflow of 2006 represents a volatile and violent exemplar of contending cultural and economic claims. Like other disasters in Indonesia and elsewhere in the developing world, this ‘natural’ disaster is characterised by differing conceptions of ‘nature’ as cultural tradition, divine force, and natural resource. A new extractive project in East Java is exhibiting similar economic and cultural agonisms, particularly around the notion of development, environment, self‐determination, and tradition. This paper examines the ‘disputes over meaning’ associated with natural disasters in contemporary societies, and the ways in which they are related to human culture, social organisation, and hierarchical systems of violence.     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts.     

火灾场景中玻璃破裂行为研究综述

建筑物在火场中的结构响应问题中,门窗玻璃在火场中的热响应特性及破裂脱落是影响火灾发展的重要因素之一。通过事故案例分析了火灾场景中玻璃破裂脱落的危害性,指出了研究火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂脱落的意义,并对目前火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂过程和主要形态、玻璃的破裂机理和判据等的研究现状进行了详细的分析,总结了目前实验和计算机模拟的最新研究进展和不足,为今后进一步开展玻璃受热破裂脱落研究提出了若干建议。     

中国内陆自然环境的干旱化与未来趋势

根据中国内陆陕西、甘肃部分地区５０９ａ旱涝资料和主要测站气象、水文实测数据,应用Ｗｏｒｄ９７图形处理系统,证明在５２６ａ序列中目前处在１１ａ、５０ａ滑动的干旱期。近４６ａ气温上升了０．３℃,年降水减少了８０ｍｍ,径流量减少了０．７８％,出现了明显的干旱化,环境变化趋势不容乐观。     

美国的洪泛平原管理

美国开展洪泛平原管理已有约40年历史，洪水保险计划是美国泛平原管理的主要措施。了解并借鉴他们的思路与具体策略，将有助于我国洪泛平原管理政策的制定。