Future of global governance and climate change action in a changing political landscape

<正>1.Editor's note On 30 November 2016,the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy(BTC),Caixin Video,and Columbia Global Centers(Beijing)jointly hosted a Seminar on the Future of Global Governance and Climate Change Action in a Changing Political Landscape.Leading experts on China's environmental policy and climate     

协同治理:2030年可持续发展议程与应对气候变化的国际制度分析

对国际议程间的关联性分析已经成为全球治理中的重要问题。特别是,由联合国引领的全球发展与应对气候变化问题,已经占据了当前国际政治议程的首要位置,两者的协同直接影响到全球治理的有效性。《2030年可持续发展议程》与《巴黎气候协定》不仅具有共同的规范性基础,而且两者通过议题衔接和叠加已经形成了密切的治理关系,国际制度关联性日益突出。从目前来看,这种关联性体现了以下特点:第一,嵌入关系。可持续发展议程的目标之一是应对全球气候变化,《巴黎协定》的治理目标已经嵌入联合国可持续发展议程之中,但也与一些目标存在矛盾,因此,协同治理具有必要性。第二,指标对应。《巴黎协定》下的“国家自主贡献”细化项目与可持续发展议程中的大部分指标已经形成对应关系,治理具有同质性。第三,制度间倡议交叉与功能外溢。其协同治理关系具体表现在诸多层面上,特别是在联合国系统内的协调、治理模式的趋同、资金渠道的整合、围绕联合国可持续发展议程所进行的发展机构改革,以及联合进行政策倡议、规则建构及政策制定等方面。从制度关系演变的角度来看,两者协同治理的类型正在发生变化,制度互动在不同层次上不断累积,并逐渐转向伙伴型的协同治理模式。     

A call to action for climate change research on Caribbean dry forests

Regional Environmental Change - Tropical dry forest (TDF) is globally one of the most threatened forest types. In the insular Caribbean, limited land area and high population pressure have resulted...     

Collaborative governance for climate change adaptation in Canada: experimenting with adaptive co-management

The search for strategies to address ‘super wicked problems’ such as climate change is gaining urgency, and a collaborative governance approach, and adaptive co-management in particular, is increasingly recognized as one such strategy. However, the conditions for adaptive co-management to emerge and the resulting network structures and relational patterns remain unclear in the literature. To address these identified needs, this study examines social relationships from a network perspective while initiating a collaborative multiactor initiative aimed to develop into adaptive co-management for climate change adaptation, an action research project undertaken in the Niagara region of Canada. The project spanned 1 year, and a longitudinal analysis of participants’ networks and level of participation in the process was performed. Evidence of support for climate change adaptation from the process included the development of deliberative and adaptive responses to opportunities presented to the group and the development of a strong subgroup of participants where decision-making was centered. However, the complexity of the challenge of addressing climate change, funding constraints, competing initiatives, and the lack of common views among participants may have contributed to the group, highlighting the finding that beneficial network structural features and relational patterns are necessary but not sufficient condition for the development of an adaptive co-management process. The context of climate change adaptation may require a different social network structure and processes than other contexts for adaptive co-management to occur, and there may be limitations to adaptive co-management for dealing with super wicked problems.     

The new geometry of climate governance

ABSTRACT

Scholars and practitioners have focused in recent years on the potential for achieving cooperation in small “clubs” of countries. While solutions to global climate change will eventually require widespread cooperation, club strategies could help to catalyze that outcome. Unlike the Paris Agreement, which has achieved widespread but relatively shallow cooperation, it could be easier to tailor agreements that allow deep cooperation within smaller groups. This essay extends that logic to clubs whose geometry varies two-dimensionally across countries but also along a third dimension: within countries. Most of the key elements of international relations and international law theory that explain how clubs achieve cooperation are directly applicable to three-dimensional clubs. Most of the relevant experience for these clubs has occurred in the west; overdue is a close assessment of how key units – such as provinces and firms – within China and other emerging economies.     

Climate change impacts on critical international transportation assets of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS): the case of Jamaica and Saint Lucia

This contribution presents an assessment of the potential vulnerabilities to climate variability and change (CV & C) of the critical transportation infrastructure of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS). It focuses on potential operational disruptions and coastal inundation forced by CV & C on four coastal international airports and four seaports in Jamaica and Saint Lucia which are critical facilitators of international connectivity and socioeconomic development. Impact assessments have been carried out under climatic conditions forced by a 1.5 °C specific warming level (SWL) above pre-industrial levels, as well as for different emission scenarios and time periods in the twenty-first century. Disruptions and increasing costs due to, e.g., more frequent exceedance of high temperature thresholds that could impede transport operations are predicted, even under the 1.5 °C SWL, advocated by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and reflected as an aspirational goal in the Paris Climate Agreement. Dynamic modeling of the coastal inundation under different return periods of projected extreme sea levels (ESLs) indicates that the examined airports and seaports will face increasing coastal inundation during the century. Inundation is projected for the airport runways of some of the examined international airports and most of the seaports, even from the 100-year extreme sea level under 1.5 °C SWL. In the absence of effective technical adaptation measures, both operational disruptions and coastal inundation are projected to increasingly affect all examined assets over the course of the century.     

国际气候变化科学和评估对中国应对气候变化的启示

科学研究和评估工作推动了国际应对气候变化进程,并加大了各国行动力度。更多的科学证据表明人类活动是造成全球气候变暖的主要原因;气候变化影响、适应和脆弱性研究范围不断扩展和深化,区域甚至次国家级层面的问题受到高度关注;2℃温控目标的实现已然成为共识,政策协调与集成及相关政策在不同领域的协同作用成为研究的热点。未来中国应对气候变化需要在四个方面进一步开展研究和采取行动:1加强不同学科和领域的研究工作,围绕与实现温升控制1.5℃、土地利用、海洋以及城市相关问题开展专题研究。2加强国内绿色低碳转型和国际谈判的战略研究。3构建气候服务体系,以灾害风险管理为抓手,提升气候变化适应水平。4通过构建能源互联网实现能源变革,加快推进国内能源革命和经济发展的低碳转型。     

Adaptive urban governance: new challenges for the second generation of urban adaptation strategies to climate change

The task of adapting cities to the impacts of climate change is of great importance—urban areas are hotspots of high risk given their concentrations of population and infrastructure; their key roles for larger economic, political and social processes; and their inherent instabilities and vulnerabilities. Yet, the discourse on urban climate change adaptation has only recently gained momentum in the political and scientific arena. This paper reviews the recent climate change adaptation strategies of nine selected cities and analyzes them in terms of overall vision and goals, baseline information used, direct and indirect impacts, proposed structural and non-structural measures, and involvement of formal and informal actors. Against this background, adaptation strategies and challenges in two Vietnamese cities are analyzed in detail, namely Ho Chi Minh City and Can Tho. The paper thereby combines a review of formalized city-scale adaptation strategies with an empirical analysis of actual adaptation measures and constraints at household level. By means of this interlinked and comparative analysis approach, the paper explores the achievements, as well as the shortcomings, in current adaptation approaches, and generates core issues and key questions for future initiatives in the four sub-categories of: (1) knowledge, perspectives, uncertainties and key threats; (2) characteristics of concrete adaptation measures and processes; (3) interactions and conflicts between different strategies and measures; (4) limits of adaptation and tipping points. In conclusion, the paper calls for new forms of adaptive urban governance that go beyond the conventional notions of urban (adaptation) planning. The proposed concept underlines the need for a paradigm shift to move from the dominant focus on the adjustment of physical structures towards the improvement of planning tools and governance processes and structures themselves. It addresses in particular the necessity to link different temporal and spatial scales in adaptation strategies, to acknowledge and to mediate between different types of knowledge (expert and local knowledge), and to achieve improved integration of different types of measures, tools and norm systems (in particular between formal and informal approaches).     

Social participation and climate change

Social participation has been broadly analysed by comparing case studies of different types of socio-economic developments in Brazil and the United Kingdom (UK). A key objective has been to consider how effective social participation has been in incorporating society’s points of view in the decision making process. In most cases, it would appear that very little can be done by stakeholders to change big decisions on development policies that support public and private development because in reality social participation often only provides an opportunity for discussion and agreement on specific issues regarding how development will be undertaken and how stakeholders will be affected. Although Brazil and the United Kingdom have socio-economic and cultural differences, it is necessary to emphasize that education, self-organization and knowledge of civil rights are crucial for an effective social participation process. As climate change is an important topic for present and future generations and that some of the development activities analysed in this study will emit greenhouse gases, this study also attempts to investigate if climate change mitigation strategies have been integrated into the social participation process. Investigation shows that there is little evidence that climate change mitigation actions involving stakeholders have been integrated into development strategies or have been part of social participation schemes in the case studies analysed. Having said that, the study also describes positive examples of climate change mitigation actions in different parts of the world that involve local people in ‘carbon-neutral’ or ‘social-carbon’ projects and proposes the creation of a carbon-neutral committee that would be responsible for coordinating climate change mitigation measures within development proposals such as the ones analysed in this study.     

Pros and cons of climate change in China

Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems,e.g.the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation,whereas in the Tibetan Plateau,the vegetation productivity increased,owing to the improved thermal resource.Climate change led to reduced precipitation in North and Northeast China and thus the reduced surface runoff.The public needs for energy were changed because of climate change,e.g.the shorter heating period in winter.Climate change profoundly influenced human health,pathophoresis and major projects by increasing extreme events,including frequency and magnitude,and causing more serious water shortage.Under the background of climate change,although the improved thermal resources can be helpful for extending the crop growth period,more extreme events may resulted in more instability in agricultural productivity.Not only did climate change indirectly affect the secondary and tertiary industries through the impacts on agriculture and natural resources,but also climate change mitigation measures,such as carbon tax,tariff and trading,had extensive and profound influences on the socioeconomic system.Further analysis indicated that the impact of climate change presented significant regional differences.The impact had its pros and cons,while the advantages outweighed the disadvantages.Based on the above analysis on the impacts of climate change,we put forward suggestions on coping with climate change.First,scientifically dealing with climate change will need to seek advantages while avoiding the disadvantages of climate change in order to achieve the orderly adaptation to climate change,which is characterized with"Overall best,long-term benefit."Second,quantitative adaptation should be given more attention,e.g.proposing operational schemes and predictable goals and using uncertainty analysis on adaptation measures.Third,more active coping strategy should be adopted to enhance China's future comprehensive competitiveness.The strategies include but are not limited to gradually adjusting the industrial structure,intensifying the research and development(RD)of emission reduction technology and actively responding to the influence of carbon tax,tariff and trading on socioeconomic development in China.     

Pros and cons of climate change in China

Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems, e.g. the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation, whereas in the Tibetan Plateau, the vegetation productivity increased, owing to the improved thermal resource. Climate change led to reduced precipitation in North and Northeast China and thus the reduced surface runoff. The public needs for energy were changed because of climate change, e.g. the shorter heating period in winter. Climate change profoundly influenced human health, pathophoresis and major projects by increasing extreme events, including frequency and magnitude, and causing more serious water shortage. Under the background of climate change, although the improved thermal resources can be helpful for extending the crop growth period, more extreme events may resulted in more instability in agricultural productivity. Not only did climate change indirectly affect the secondary and tertiary industries through the impacts on agriculture and natural resources, but also climate change mitigation measures, such as carbon tax, tariff and trading, had extensive and profound influences on the socioeconomic system. Further analysis indicated that the impact of climate change presented significant regional differences. The impact had its pros and cons, while the advantages outweighed the disadvantages. Based on the above analysis on the impacts of climate change, we put forward suggestions on coping with climate change. First, scientifically dealing with climate change will need to seek advantages while avoiding the disadvantages of climate change in order to achieve the orderly adaptation to climate change, which is characterized with “Overall best, long-term benefit.” Second, quantitative adaptation should be given more attention, e.g. proposing operational schemes and predictable goals and using uncertainty analysis on adaptation measures. Third, more active coping strategy should be adopted to enhance China’s future comprehensive competitiveness. The strategies include but are not limited to gradually adjusting the industrial structure, intensifying the research and development (R&D) of emission reduction technology and actively responding to the influence of carbon tax, tariff and trading on socioeconomic development in China.     

Dangerous climate change and water resources in Australia

Water resources in Australia are sensitive to changes in rainfall. Ongoing droughts in south-west and south-east Australia are stressing water resources in the major cities and in agricultural regions. Climate change scenarios for Australia include reasonable prospects of long-term drying, which would exacerbate these issues. The dryer scenarios would entail major readjustments and costs on natural and human systems.     

Resources and international climate change policy gridlock

Few other policy zones are as complex as the issue of climate change.If the more pessimistic projections of climate change doom are correct,then the failure to address the issue is likely to be catastrophic and irreversible.The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted the potential extinction of many species and that the existence of small-island and other vulnerable countries will be threatened if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue.Climate change is a transboundary problem and requires unprecedented levels of cooperation between states and serious and sustained responses from major emitters.However,the growing demand and consumption of natural resources for continued energy security and cornucopian economic growth have undermined the outcomes of international climate change negotiations.It is argued here that there is a strong connection between the major emitters’positions at United Nations’climate talks,their possessions,dependence and consumption of natural resources,and the continued undermining of international climate change policy for unsustainable growth.This paper assesses the resource politics of the US,China,India,Canada,Russia,and Saudi Arabia and their positions at climate talks to show the link between lack of climate change policy progress and the positions of these main players.     

Resources and international climate change policy gridlock

Few other policy zones are as complex as the issue of climate change. If the more pessimistic projections of climate change doom are correct, then the failure to address the issue is likely to be catastrophic and irreversible. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted the potential extinction of many species and that the existence of small-island and other vulnerable countries will be threatened if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. Climate change is a transboundary problem and requires unprecedented levels of cooperation between states and serious and sustained responses from major emitters. However, the growing demand and consumption of natural resources for continued energy security and cornucopian economic growth have undermined the outcomes of international climate change negotiations. It is argued here that there is a strong connection between the major emitters’ positions at United Nations’ climate talks, their possessions, dependence and consumption of natural resources, and the continued undermining of international climate change policy for unsustainable growth. This paper assesses the resource politics of the US, China, India, Canada, Russia, and Saudi Arabia and their positions at climate talks to show the link between lack of climate change policy progress and the positions of these main players.     

跨国气候伙伴关系治理及其对中国的启示

《巴黎协定》为全球应对气候变化确立了"自下而上"的治理路径,有助于增强各类行为体的参与动力,而后续的巴黎进程更适用于建立以跨国气候伙伴关系为代表的治理模式。在这一模式下,主要施动者是地方政府和包括气候NGO、市民社会在内的非国家行为体。他们不仅在议程设定、透明度、监督执行和代表利益攸关方等方面具有不可替代的作用,而且还具有擅长短期本土化项目管理等优势。本文从国际关系的跨国行为体视角出发,对这类伙伴关系的兴起及其合法性、有效性进行分析,所获得的基本结论为:(1)各国达成《巴黎协定》的内在逻辑有助于跨国伙伴关系发挥作用;(2)当前跨国气候伙伴关系参与全球气候治理的路径呈现不断制度化的趋势;(3)跨国伙伴关系治理的合法性和有效性具有一定特殊性;(4)非国家行为体在参与治理的过程中逐渐交叉,更易形成联盟且相关的观念外溢也更为便利。这一新兴治理关系对中国的启示包括:(1)重新审视非国家行为体在全球气候治理中的作用;(2)评估一些具有重大影响力的跨国伙伴关系,并适当鼓励国内相关机构和组织参与全球进程;(3)在国内层面,以渐进的方式,有针对性地参与、建立一些跨国气候伙伴关系,有助于提升中国的城市与地方政府的气候治理能力;(4)在国际合作中,利用非国家行为体的优势推动中国所提出的南南气候合作倡议及相关项目的落实,进一步提升中国气候治理的话语权,并弥补资金、技术及能力建设上的不足。     

Assessment of climate change simulations over climate zones of Turkey

Projected climate change over Turkey has been analyzed by using the reference (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) climate simulations produced by ICTP-RegCM3. Since examining Turkey as a single region could be misleading due to the existence of complex topography and different climatic regions, Turkey has been separated into seven climatic regions to evaluate the surface temperature and precipitation changes. Comparison of the reference simulation with observations was made spatially by using a monthly gridded data set and area-averaged surface data compiled from 114 meteorological stations for each climatic region of Turkey. In the future simulation, warming over Turkey’s climatic regions is in the range of 2–5 °C. Summer warming over western regions of Turkey is 3 °C higher than the winter warming. During winter, in the future simulation, precipitation decreases very significantly over southeastern Turkey (24 %), which covers most of the upstream of Euphrates and Tigris river basin. This projected decrease could be a major source of concern for Turkey and the neighboring countries. Our results indicate that a significant increase (48 %) in the autumn season precipitation is simulated over southeastern Turkey, which may help to offset the winter deficit and therefore reduce the net change during the annual cycle.     

Assessing social vulnerability to climate change in Samoa

Climate change severely impacts on the natural and socio-economic systems of the Pacific Islands. Samoa, a small insular state of the region, is characterized by widespread awareness of climate change reflected by its leading international role. This also makes Samoa a potentially exemplary reference for the Pacific Islands. Against this backdrop, the overall aim of this article is to investigate the notion of social vulnerability and measure its dimensions in Samoa through a specific index: the Samoa Social Vulnerability Index (SSVI). The SSVI may yield better understanding of the characteristics and dynamics of social vulnerability, as well as information for fostering adaptation strategies in Samoa and in the Pacific Islands. In particular, the article first outlines the major vulnerabilities to climate change in Samoa and then analyses the composite notion of social vulnerability. On this basis, the article methodologically specifies, designs and constructs the SSVI. Afterwards, it uses such index for measuring the dimensions of social vulnerability in Samoa’s districts. Finally, some considerations are made concerning the policy relevance of the SSVI and its potential regional role.