Spatio-temporal variability of extreme precipitation characteristics under different climatic conditions in Fars province,Iran

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Spatio-temporal variability of extreme precipitation characteristics (EPCs) were analyzed using clustering techniques to establish homogeneous...     

Contribution of small-scale mining to employment,development and sustainability – an Indian scenario

Small-scale mining is more prevalent in India. The maximum production capacity of 50,000 tonnes/year has been accepted as a criterion to Indian small-scale mine. Such mines constitute about 90% of total number of mines, 42% of the total non-fuel minerals and metals, 5% of the fuel minerals. Some 3000 small scale mines account for a work force of about 0.5 million people. Yet this sector is a neglected sector in Indian economy and still considered as an unorganized sector. This paper examines the contribution of small-scale mines to employment and national mineral production, practices, and Indian policy on small-scale mining. It identifies the drawbacks in the existing Government policy and discusses the role of Government for up gradation in this sector. It focuses the need for technical up gradation and to ensure the economic and social infrastructure. It also discusses how the pursuit of sustainable livelihoods, poverty alleviation and indigenous peoples right in artisanal and small-scale mining be more effective when these communities are disadvantaged or neglected by Government policies. This paper concludes that this sector can make significant contribution to Indian economy and employment generation. It recommends that by establishing mining centre consist of shared mining and processing facilities, educating and training related initiatives it can be achieved.     

ANN-based mapping of monthly reference crop evapotranspiration by using altitude, latitude and longitude data in Fars province, Iran

The main goal of this study was to evaluate the different feed-forward back-propagation artificial neural networks’ (ANNs) potential to estimate and interpolate the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀) in Fars province of Iran. ET₀ was calculated using the FAO-56 Penman–Monteith method over 24 synoptic stations. Then, altitude, latitude, longitude and the month’s number as inputs and the monthly ET₀ as output (target) were used to train the ANNs. In addition, the three-layered ANNs optimized with different training algorithms including gradient descent back-propagation (gd), gradient descent with adaptive learning rate back-propagation (gda), gradient descent with momentum and adaptive learning rate back-propagation (gdx) and scaled conjugate gradient back-propagation (scg). The results indicated that scg algorithm with architecture (4 2 1) had more satisfactory results with the RMSE and R correlation coefficient equal to 18.538 mm and 0.967 in validation phase, respectively. Based on the mentioned architecture of scg algorithm, and input data form different parts of Fars province and surrounding areas, monthly ET₀ maps were produced and annual one achieved by summation of monthly maps. The maps particularly annual one showed that highest values of ET₀ could be found in the southern and especially southeastern regions, while the lowest values of ET₀ could be seen in the northern parts. Contribution of geographic and topographic variables improved the accuracy and spatial details of the resulting maps. It is interesting to note that the fundamental capability of this model is the usage of just a few parameters for ET₀ mapping. Since ET₀ is a key parameter in water demand planning, therefore, the derived maps could be useful and applicable for many purposes mainly irrigation scheduling in Fars province, Iran.     

Influencing factors on sustainable development: a case study in Quang Tri province,Vietnam

Background Sustainable development (SD) is a common concept. Knowledge and attitudes are essential in the SD process. This study assesses the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) of local people about SD. Aim To study the factors that influence the understanding of the concept, contents, and indicators of different aspects affecting the health and environmental issues. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out from June to July 2007 among 546 households in the Quang Tri province. Data were gathered on basis of socio-demographic variables, namely age, gender, education, occupation, income, and region. Chi square tests and multivariate analysis were performed on the obtained data. The data were cleaned and analysed using SPSS 15.0 for windows. Results Occupation is related to knowledge, attitude, or practice. Income is related to knowledge or practice. Gender related to only attitude. Lastly, region is related to attitude or practice. The proportion of wrong understanding about SD is 2.0 times (95% CI: 1.3; 3.1, p < 0.001) higher than that of the people who have good understanding about it. The rate of willingness to do any related SD programmes of the people who understanding is 2.1 times (95% CI: 1.4; 3.2, p < 0.001) higher than that of the people who have bad one. Conclusions This study shows that knowledge on sustainability of the local communities is low. Occupation and income influence understanding of SD more than region, age, gender, and education. Most of the local people who do not understand SD in general, do not want to participate or act in SD programmes.     

基于空间替代的环境规制产业结构效应研究

由于具有很强的外部效应,区域性是环境问题的主要特征之一。一个大的经济体内部差别化的环境保护政策容易导致环境敏感型产业在地区间的迁移,这一过程将引致地区之间产业结构的变迁。相对发达地区实行更加积极的环境保护措施,在产业的选择上限制污染型产业的发展,这势必将对原有污染型产业产生影响,加大环境保护投资、转行或者外迁是该区域内企业可能的选择。在环境政策不够严厉,产业的选择更为多样的地区,宽松的环境政策甚至是地方政府招商引资的一个优惠条件,则污染型产业是其发展的可能选择。本文通过对2003—2012年中西部19个省份11个污染型制造业工业总产值占全国比例结构的变迁进行实证检验,结果显示环境规制有非常明显的产业结构空间效应,存在对污染型制造业西迁的促进作用。区域差别性的环境政策确实突出了中西部地区的比较优势,使得环境污染密集型产业向西迁徙,实现了污染产业从中国东部向西部的空间替代。从空间的整体上看,也更有助于全面认识中国的产业升级现象。如果为了缩小地区发展差距,通过环保规制差异促进中西部地区的发展,而不是严格按照功能区进行分类环境保护和要素的自由流动,在这一过程中反映出来的产业结构变迁也是不健康的,东部地区的产业升级中的要素替代作用,尤其是技术进步的作用,无疑就会被夸大。看似中西部地区可能重新步入先发展后治理的老路,受到污染损害的仅是国家的另一片地区,但是由于中西部地区属于环境脆弱区和重要的水源上游,最终受伤害的将会是我们整个国家。     

Method for the evaluation of thermal requirements for development based on phenological observations

A new method for the evaluation of threshold temperature of development involving phenological observations and based on hyperbolic imaging of dependence between the day of development and temperature values close to the threshold was proposed. The rare species Clematis integrifolia was used as an example to evaluate thermal requirements for six stages of its development. The method proposed in this study was also compared with some common methods for the estimation of threshold temperature basing on phenological data.     

Simulating spatial pattern of urban growth using GIS-based SLEUTH model: a case study of eastern corridor of Tehran metropolitan region,Iran

Tehran metropolitan region (TMR) has experienced rapid urbanization in the last few decades. This accelerating urbanization trend mainly arising from high natural population growth and rural–urban migration along with rapid socioeconomic changes formed unplanned and uncontrolled urban expansion in peri-urban areas and resulted in degrading environmental quality and considerable changes in the urban landscapes of the TMR. Thus, the main objective of this research is to model spatial pattern of urban growth in eastern corridor of TMR using GIS-based SLEUTH model and the prediction of future developments of the region from 2014 to 2060. The SLEUTH is one of the most powerful models for urban growth modeling. This model analyzes the spatial pattern of urban growth based on historical data obtained from satellite images of 1987, 2003, 2011, and 2014. The results indicate that the most important factors affecting the urban growth are slope resistance and road gravity. The slope resistance is the highest coefficients value, which illustrates the limiting influence of the slopes on general trend of urban growth in eastern corridor of the TMR. The road gravity stands in second place where it displaces orientation of linear form of outlying pattern alongside the transportation network; it represents that the main pattern of urban growth in peri-urban areas of the region have a linear nature and edge expansion due to slope resistance and road-influenced growth, while spread, diffusion, and breed coefficients display low probability of new spreading center and spontaneous growth in the study area. In addition, the prediction of urban growth for 2020–2060 revealed that urban expansion which was 41,500 ha in 2014 will increase to 179,400 ha in 2060 with noticeable growth rate of 145.6 %. Comparing study area and other researches indicate that the urban growth happens in high rate in eastern corridor. One of the main reasons of this growth goes back to the formation of the second homes for residents of Tehran metropolitan city.     

Indigenous knowledge on use values of Karvan district plants,Iran

Traditional and indigenous knowledge on plants usage is a valuable source of information from cultural and natural perspectives, reflecting society’s complicated and close relationship with the environment. Communities have a valuable source of traditional knowledge on the utilization of natural resources, and it is worth to be documented and preserved for current and future applications. We conducted this research to collect and identify plant species of Karvan District and document the traditional knowledge on their use and consumption values. Regarding the results, 150 plant species are used by local communities, more than 30 % of which are directly consumed as food, 24 % (37 species) are used as medicinal plants, and 16.3 % are applied for decoration purposes; 58.6 % of the species are consumed in the raw form, and the remaining is processed before consumption. Leaves (35 %), seeds (21 %) and flowers (21 %) are the most frequent parts of the plants that are used. High number of young emigrants to industrialized areas in seek of job opportunities is threatening this precious source of indigenous knowledge. Attempts to preserve this empirical source of information by encouraging trans-generational knowledge transmission would help to maintain it for future applications.     

Economic valuation of Shadegan International Wetland,Iran: notes for conservation

Wetlands are among the most productive ecosystems on the earth. They produce various market and non-market goods and services, which have a significant role in human welfare. Despite the great opportunities from sustainable development, wetlands all over the world are under serious threat from a diverse range of non-sustainable activities. One of the major reasons for excessive depletion and the conversion of wetland resources is due to underestimating the non-market values of wetlands during development decisions. Shadegan International Wetland (SIW) in southern Iran is one of these wetland areas that is threatened by undervaluation and overexploitation from commercial activities. This study utilizes the contingent valuation method to estimate the economic benefits of SIW from the view point of peoples’ willingness to pay (WTP). The logit model was defined based on dichotomous choice to measure individuals’ WTP. The estimated mean WTP was US$ 1.74 per household as a onetime donation. This study concludes that the benefits of SIW to society could encourage managers to set priorities to ensure that the health of the ecosystem, its integrity, and its uniqueness would be conserved in a proper manner.     

生产性公共支出、空间溢出效应与区域经济差距——基于多地区动态一般均衡模型的分析

改革开放以来,中国东、中、西部地区经济差距不断拉大,政府为协调区域经济发展水平,逐渐将生产性公共支出向较不发达的中部和西部地区倾斜。为了全面地评估这种财政政策的效果,在传统一般均衡分析的基础上将生产性公共支出及其空间溢出纳入宏观经济分析框架,构建了一个多地区动态一般均衡模型,并用该模型模拟了现实经济中区域生产性公共支出政策及其调整对区域经济和宏观经济的冲击,得到的结论是:(1)当前生产性公共支出空间分布基础上,新增生产性公共支出分散于各个地区,会继续扩大区域经济差距;(2)新增生产性公共支出集中于较不发达的地区时,由于较低的基础设施边际生产力和较弱的空间溢出效应,全国人均产出不能达到最大水平,但可缩小区域经济差距;(3)新增生产性公共支出集中于较发达的地区时,由于较高的基础设施边际生产力和较强的空间溢出效应,全国人均产出可达到最大水平,但同时拉大区域经济差距。由此得到的政策启示是:在现有生产性公共支出的区域分布基础上,以缩小区域经济差距为目标的次优的财政政策将新增的生产性公共支出向西部和中部等较不发达地区倾斜,靠直接刺激效应促进当地产出增长;以效率优先为准则的财政政策选取较发达地区为生产性公共支出目的地,因为较发达地区通常具有较高的基础设施边际生产力和较强的空间溢出效应。     

建设用地空间错配理论、机制与效益损失:基于湖北省的实证

研究建设用地空间错配特征及内在机制,对纠正土地资源错配、优化土地资源配置机制具有现实意义。基于资源错配理论对土地资源错配理论开展梳理,提出建设用地错配机制假说,运用边际分析法和计量方法构建建设用地空间错配测度模型及机制检验模型,并以湖北省为例进行实证研究。结果表明:①1996—2017年湖北省建设用地过度错配与短缺错配并存,空间错配程度总体上有所改善,但局部地区错配程度加剧。②土地负外部性扩散、非均衡发展、非市场化供应、土地财政依赖等加剧了建设用地空间错配,优化产业结构、减少政府腐败、发展多元所有制等有利于降低建设用地空间错配程度。③1996—2017年湖北省建设用地空间错配效率损失由6.92%下降到3.84%,年均减少2.03%,效率损失得到缓解。④从损失值看,湖北省建设用地空间错配效率损失严重,1996—2017年累计经济损失达3.90×10^4亿元。主要结论:建设用地空间错配测度模型兼顾了土地配置的效率与公平,可以作为建设用地空间错配程度衡量的有效方法;建设用地空间错配已经成为阻碍经济增长的重要因素之一,纠正建设用地空间错配,能有效促进区域经济增长;土地市场配置和政府主导配置均会带来建设用地空间错配,建设用地配置中一个“有效的市场”与“有为的政府”结合十分必要且迫切。     

基于城市总规的基本农田空间优化调整研究——以乌鲁木齐市高新区(新市区)为例

随着"三化"进程的推进,有限的土地资源供给与日趋上升的用地需求矛盾日益凸现。农地非农化的现象日趋严峻。耕地和基本农田的保护难度加大。城郊作为城市建成区与乡村衔接的特殊经济地理区位,土地利用受城市化进程和农业用地制约的双重影响,基本农田保护面临更为突出的问题。本文以乌鲁木齐市高新区(新市区)为研究靶区,充分利用高新区(新市区)二轮土地调查、土地总体规划、基本农田划定等数据和图库资料,以GIS技术作为分析工具和手段,在综合考虑耕地的质量与立地条件,结合高新区(新市区)社会经济、城市发展方向与定位、产业用地划定及布局等条件因素,对高新区(新市区)已划定的基本农田与产业空间布局结构衔接进行调整提供科学依据和参考,为区域协调耕地保护寻求路径。     

Challenges for marine spatial planning in the context of multiple sea uses,policy arenas and actors based on experiences from the German North Sea

Today, increasing use intensity and establishment of new sea uses such as offshore wind farming can be observed in coastal and marine waters. This development also increases the pressure on coastal and marine ecosystems. The exclusive economic zone of the German North Sea can serve as an example for this development, in particular illustrating the need to combine multiple uses and societal demands within a given sea area. In order to deal with the resulting conflicts and cumulative impacts, new planning tools and integrated approaches to planning and management are developing. While the sea becomes a contested but at the same time politically recognised area, also conflicts rooted in different perceptions, values and attitudes of coastal people can be observed. In order to deal with the current challenges in marine areas, marine spatial planning and similar tools for integrated planning need to be developed in the form of communication processes, which link diverse sets of information and span a dialogue between groups of society and across spatial scales including the transnational dimension.     

基于能值的中国农业绿色经济增长与空间收敛

构造合理的评价指标,对农业绿色经济增长现状及其演变进行客观评估与分析,是实现传统农业向绿色农业转变,促进农业经济可持续发展的迫切要求。本文基于能值理论,对2003—2014年中国及各省域单元农业绿色GDP进行了测算,在此基础上,利用空间分析方法研究我国农业绿色经济增长的空间格局与收敛特征。结果表明:1相较于传统农业GDP,中国人均农业绿色GDP增长相对缓慢,农业绿色GDP占农业传统GDP的比重在80%—85%之间,并呈下降趋势。2我国农业绿色经济增长存在显著的空间集聚,且集聚效应逐渐增强。3人均农业绿色GDP并未打破传统经济增长东部高、西部低的整体格局。东部经济发达地区更高的农业生产效率和西部相对粗放的生产方式是形成这种空间格局的主要原因。4农业人均绿色GDP的收敛分析适用于空间误差自回归模型,考虑了空间自相关因素后得出的收敛速度快于普通收敛分析的收敛速度。因此,准确评价农业经济增长水平需要充分考虑农业增长中的资源环境代价。在今后的发展过程中,我国应实施差别化的农业绿色发展政策,经济发达地区需要进一步减少农业经济增长中的资源环境成本,在继续扩大高增长优势下,促进农业发展的绿色转型。而欠发达地区则应在稳定粮食生产的同时更加注重生态环境保护,努力实现整体跨越式发展。各地区还应加快现代农业技术的转移与扩散,通过增强技术知识的空间溢出效应来提高农业绿色经济增长的收敛速度,尤其是农业发展落后地区应加强与先进地区的交流合作,大力引进先进的农业生产技术与管理经验,提升人力资本水平,以逐步缩小差距,促进农业绿色经济的协调发展。     

基于海洋生态产品的海岛旅游绿色发展经济激励额度评估

海洋生态系统为人类提供了环境友好型海产品、可持续海洋原材料、可持续基因资源、生态旅游产品、海景观房地产等海洋生态标签生态产品和减缓温室效应产品、净化环境要素产品、灾害控制产品等海洋关键环境要素生态产品。本文以海洋生态产品理论为基础,将海岛旅游绿色发展含义界定为旅游目的地环境友好型海产品的生产与消费,旅游目的地海洋生态系统与森林生态系统持续稳定地提供核心生态系统服务和旅游业低碳排放;并运用海洋渔业生态标签制度(MFELS)、生态系统服务付费(PES)和市场替换法(MRM),以山东省长岛县为案例地,以问卷调查和访谈调查获取的数据为基础,对海岛旅游绿色发展经济激励额度进行了评估。结果表明:(1)运用MFELS可获得0.207 0×10~8元/a的经济激励资金,其中山东省短途客源地游客、京津冀晋豫中途客源地游客和其他省市区长途客源地游客平均每人次分别承担13.26元、17.57元和17.56元;(2)运用PES可获得0.673 6×10~8元/a的经济激励资金,其中短途游客、中途游客和长途游客平均每人次分别承担43.44元、57.89元和54.42元;(3)运用MRM可获得0.154 1×10~8元/a的经济激励资金,其中各类游客平均每人次分别承担0.00元、14.59元和34.58元;(4)运用MFELS、PES和MRM可获得1.034 7×10~8元/a的经济激励资金,其中各类游客平均每人次分别承担56.70元、90.05元和106.56元。研究建议:各客源地游客承担海岛旅游绿色发展经济激励资金应考虑区域的差异性特征。     

Estimation of the critical effect level for pollution prevention based on oyster embryonic development toxicity test: the search for reliability

In spite of the consideration that toxicity testing is a reduced approach to measure the effects of pollutants on ecosystems, the early-life-stage (ELS) tests have evident ecological relevance because they reflect the possible reproductive impairment of the natural populations. The procedure and validation of Crassostrea rhizophorae embryonic development test have shown that it meets the same precision as other U.S. EPA tests, where EC(50) is generally used as a toxicological endpoint. However, the recognition that EC(50) is not the best endpoint to assess contaminant effects led U.S. EPA to recently suggest EC(25) as an alternative to estimate xenobiotic effects for pollution prevention. To provide reliability to the toxicological test results on C. rhizophorae embryos, the present work aimed to establish the critical effect level for this test organism, based on its reaction to reference toxicants, by using the statistical method proposed by Norberg-King (Inhibition Concentration, version 2.0). Oyster embryos were exposed to graded series of reference toxicants (ZnSO(4) x 7H(2)O; AgNO(3); KCl; CdCl(2)H(2)O; phenol, 4-chlorophenol and dodecyl sodium sulphate). Based on the obtained results, the critical value for C. rhizophorae embryonic development test was estimated as EC(15). The present research enhances the emerging consensus that ELS tests data would be adequate for estimating the chronic safe concentrations of pollutants in the receiving waters. Based on recommended criteria and on the results of the present research, zinc sulphate and 4-chlorophenol have been pointed out, among the inorganic and organic compounds tested, as the best reference toxicants for C. rhizophorae ELS-test.     

Contamination of groundwater and risk assessment for arsenic exposure in Ha Nam province, Vietnam

The characteristics of arsenic-contaminated groundwater and the potential risks from the groundwater were investigated. Arsenic contamination in groundwater was found in four villages (Vinh Tru, Bo De, Hoa Hau, Nhan Dao) in Ha Nam province in northern Vietnam. Since the groundwater had been used as one of the main drinking water sources in these regions, groundwater and hair samples were collected in the villages. The concentrations of arsenic in the three villages (Vinh Tru, Bo De, Hoa Hau) significantly exceeded the Vietnamese drinking water standard for arsenic (10 microg/L) with average concentrations of 348, 211, and 325 microg/L, respectively. According to the results of the arsenic speciation testing, the predominant arsenic species in the groundwater existed as arsenite [As(III)]. Elevated concentrations of iron, manganese, and ammonium were also found in the groundwater. Although more than 90% of the arsenic was removed by sand filtration systems used in this region, arsenic concentrations of most treated groundwater were still higher than the drinking water standard. A significant positive correlation was found between the arsenic concentrations in the treated groundwater and in female human hair. The risk assessment for arsenic through drinking water pathways shows both potential chronic and carcinogenic risks to the local community. More than 40% of the people consuming treated groundwater are at chronic risk for arsenic exposure.     

Present and future environmental impacts on the coastal zone of Berau (East Kalimantan, Indonesia), a deductive scenario analysis

Using the drivers–pressures–state–impact–responses (DPSIR) analytical framework, local stakeholder respondents and experts were interviewed to construct and prioritize a causality network that links ecosystem state of the coastal waters of Berau (East Kalimantan, Indonesia) with societal drivers of change. Particularly on the perceived top priority drivers and pressures, consensus among respondents was considerable. The constructed network was found to be consistent with literature findings from elsewhere in SE Asia. This causality network was then confronted with a local articulation of the SRES scenarios (IPCCs Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A1, A2, B1, B2), and four plausible trajectories of future change were deduced over a period of 20?years, until 2030. Our scenario articulations differed greatly in the projected immigration influx into the region, in local economic growth and in institutional strength of governance. Under business-as-usual conditions, it is foreseen that fisheries will continue to overexploit the resource, and inland and mangrove deforestation, as well as sediment and sewage loading of the coastal waters, will increase, leading to declines in coral and seagrass extent and depleted fisheries. Scenarios with continued immigration (~A1, A2) will probably aggravate this pattern, whereas those with reduced immigration (~B1, B2) would appear to lead to considerable improvements in the state of the coastal waters of Berau.     

Theoretical and exploratory research on sustainability mental model of the public in China: based on a typical survey in Guangdong province

This article aims to investigate the public’s sustainability mental model (SMM), which can reveal the sustainability dilemma from the public respective, other than enterprise or government. In this article, SMM is defined as one’s cognitive structure, thinking mode, and behavior tendency when someone deals with sustainability issues. After theoretical analysis, the authors developed reliable and valid measures systematically and conducted a typical survey with 581 participants from college students’ families in Guangdong province in China. Based on those samples, the author used the exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis to construct a measurement model of SMM, which includes three dimensions, i.e. sustainable cognition, sustainable thinking, and sustainable behavior intention. According to SMM survey and clustering analysis, the results indicate that SMM of those participants is inactive. Even though those samples do not represent the whole country comprehensively, but this survey was sampled typically and they came from around China. So, the authors consider the SMM scores can reflect Chinese people to some extent, leading to the assumption that SMM of Chinese people is not active presently.