Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model

A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7x10(14), 1.2x10(13), 2.8x10(10) and 5.3x10(9)Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately 160 million pounds. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented.     

Understanding vulnerability in southern Africa: comparative findings using a multiple-stressor approach in South Africa and Malawi

Within southern Africa, many households are facing increasing pressures as they deal with multiple challenges such as low employment, high levels of disease, environmental resources under pressure and changing political landscapes. To respond to the needs of different individuals and households, it is important to define the nature of their vulnerability. An increasing amount of theoretical and empirical work on the concept of ‘vulnerability’ has led to a range of definitions, indicators and measurement tools, which have come to characterise this field of study. As a result, there is no one general consensus. This paper presents the results from the latest in a series of applied studies conducted since 2004 by a network of scientists working in southern Africa, aimed at refining the definition and application of the concept of vulnerability. The study employed a recently developed multiple-stressor model to guide the collection and analysis of data from three sites in South Africa and Malawi. In this paper, we identify and explore five key ‘symptoms’ of vulnerability emerging from our multi-country data and reflect on the usefulness of the model employed.     

Assessing the probability of land submergence for lowland rice cultivation in Africa using satellite imagery and geospatial data

Sub-Saharan African countries are being strongly urged to enhance their rice production, because their rice consumption and importation rates have been rapidly increasing in recent years. Areas planted to rice in Africa are classified agro-ecologically into rainfed upland, rainfed lowland, and irrigated. Rainfed lowland includes extensive areas of unexploited land that has great potential for the promotion of rice growing. For the unexploited rainfed lowlands of Ghana, we have been studying the development of low-cost rice-farming systems that require no large-scale irrigation or land reclamation. For such systems, it is important to select suitable areas where water for rice farming can be obtained naturally; floodwaters offer promise for this purpose. Delineation and mapping of floodwater prone areas suitable for rice production is important for successful utilization of this land resource. Here, we propose a method of assessing flood probability from submergence frequency, as estimated from satellite imagery and geospatial data. ALOS/PALSAR images acquired in May, June, August, and September 2010 were used to classify land and water, and then a submerged-area map was produced. From the results, we were able to accurately detect non-submerged areas and submerged areas with water depths of at least 3?cm. The number of times classified into submerged area was defined as submergence frequency, and it was approximated by distance from reservoirs representing White Volta River, ponds, and swamps. In addition, flood extent derived from reservoirs was simulated using digital elevation model (DEM). Finally, a flood probability assessment map was produced by integration of the estimated submergence frequency and flood extent simulation. The results of a comparison of soil moisture data measured at 69 points in the field and the NDVIs computed by ALOS/AVNIR showed that areas with high potential for flooding retained high levels of soil moisture and were more likely to show less deterioration of vegetation in the dry season. The validation of these results confirmed the adequacy of the flood probability assessment method.     

Assessing agricultural land-use change in the Midlands region of KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa: application of mixed multinomial logit

On-farm tree cultivation is considered an important strategy to mitigate detrimental environmental impacts of agricultural land-use change (ALUC). In South Africa, however, little is known about farm-level incentives and constraints that govern ALUC decisions among small-scale farmers. To address this knowledge gap, this study employs a mixed multinomial logit model by using a combination of revealed and stated preference data. After correcting for endogeneity, the estimated results show that decisions about ALUC are rationally derived and driven by clear but heterogeneous preferences and trade-offs between crop productivity, food security and labour saving. The results further show that the decision to plant sugarcane is constrained by landholding, whilst farmland afforestation is negatively influenced by household size. Decisions to convert land use are also driven by the behaviour of peer groups and agro-ecological conditions. Based on these findings, important policy implications for sustainable land use are outlined.     

Usefulness and uses of climate forecasts for agricultural extension in South Carolina,USA

Farmers and extensionists can use forecasts about agro-climatic conditions to reduce risks of agricultural production. Eighteen extension agents, researchers, consultants, and farmers provided feedback about decision support tools that utilize such forecasts during focus groups that were conducted in Florence, South Carolina on January 14, 2011. Climate Risk and County Yield Database were the tools most selected as potentially useful for agricultural extension in South Carolina. An irrigation scheduler was the most frequently mentioned tool to be developed. Also, a survey of Clemson University’s extension personnel was conducted in January and February 2011 to assess interest of South Carolina’s growers and producers in using climate forecasts, eleven potential uses of climate forecasts by extension’s clientele, and potential usefulness to extensionists of twelve specific forecasts. Clemson’s extensionists represent approximately 97 % of the state’s agricultural extensionists. They are more likely than not to agree that growers and producers are interested in using climate forecasts. Most of the state’s extension personnel also think that farmers could use a climate forecast to improve irrigation management and planting schedules. A majority of the state’s extensionists thinks that a freeze alert could be useful to them and the proportion that thinks the forecast could be useful exceeds the proportion that thinks any other forecast could be useful. Most extensionists also think that a forecast of plant moisture stress could be useful to help farmers schedule irrigation. The key survey results are remarkably similar to those from surveys of extension personnel at North Carolina State University in early 2009 and University of Florida in late 2004.     

Implications of climate change in sustained agricultural productivity in South Asia

One of the targets of the United Nations ‘Millennium Development Goals’ adopted in 2000 is to cut in half the number of people who are suffering from hunger between 1990 and 2015. However, crop yield growth has slowed down in much of the world because of declining investments in agricultural research, irrigation, and rural infrastructure and increasing water scarcity. New challenges to food security are posed by accelerated climatic change. Considerable uncertainties remain as to when, where and how climate change will affect agricultural production. Even less is known about how climate change might influence other aspects that determine food security, such as accessibility of food for various societal groups and the stability of food supply. This paper presents the likely impacts of thermal and hydrological stresses as a consequence of projected climate change in the future potential agriculture productivity in South Asia based on the crop simulation studies with a view to identify critical climate thresholds for sustained food productivity in the region. The study suggests that, on an aggregate level, there might not be a significant impact of global warming on food production of South Asia in the short term (<2°C; until 2020s), provided water for irrigation is available and agricultural pests could be kept under control. The increasing frequency of droughts and floods would, however, continue to seriously disrupt food supplies on year to year basis. In long term (2050s and beyond), productivity of Kharif crops would decline due to increased climate variability and pest incidence and virulence. Production of Rabi crops is likely to be more seriously threatened in response to 2°C warming. The net cereal production in South Asia is projected to decline at least between 4 and 10% under the most conservative climate change projections (a regional warming of 3°C) by the end of this century. In terms of the reference to UNFCCC Article 2 on dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system, the critical threshold for sustained food productivity in South Asia appears to be a rise in surface air temperature of ~2°C and a marginal decline in water availability for irrigation or decrease in rainfall during the cropping season.     

Dynamics of land use land cover and its impact on carbon stocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: an overview

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Land use land cover change (LULCC) is a global environmental trend that plays a key role in worldwide environmental change and sustainable development....     

Identifying the land use and land cover change drivers: methods and case studies of two forest reserves in Northern Benin

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is one of the problems that the world has been facing for the last few decades despite political attention....     

Evaluation of chemical and ecotoxicological characteristics of biodegradable organic residues for application to agricultural land

The use of organic waste and compost as a source of organic matter and nutrients is a common practice to improve soil physico-chemical properties, meanwhile reducing the need for inorganic fertilisers. Official guidelines to assess sewage sludge and compost quality are mostly based on total metal content of these residues. Measurement of the total concentration of metals may be useful as a general index of contamination, but provides inadequate or little information about their bioavailability, mobility or toxicity when the organic residue is applied to the soil. However, ecotoxicity tests provide an integrated measure of bioavailability and detrimental effects of contaminants in the ecosystem. In the present study, three different types of biodegradable organic residues (BORs) have been considered: sewage sludge from municipal wastewater treatment (SS), compost from the organic fraction of unsorted municipal solid waste (MSWC), and garden waste compost (GWC). The BORs were subjected to chemical characterisation and total metal quantification (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn), in order to verify their suitability for land application. Water leachability was determined through the DIN 38414-S4 method, while the modified BCR sequential extraction procedure was used for metal speciation. Ecotoxicity of the BORs was studied by direct and indirect bioassays. Direct toxicity bioassays were: plant growth tests with cress (Lepidium sativum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), and earthworm (Eisenia fetida) mortality. On the other hand, indirect exposure bioassays, with leachate from the residues, took into account: luminescent bacteria (Vibrio fischeri), seed germination (L. sativum and H. vulgare) and Daphnia magna immobilization. As far as total metal concentration is concerned, with particular reference to Zn, SS resulted neither suitable for the use in agriculture nor compatible to be disposed of as an inert material into landfill, according to the Directive 1999/31/EC. Zinc in SS was mainly present in exchangeable form (28.5%), appearing as highly bioavailable. As a consequence, SS exhibited either high ecotoxicity effects with the indirect exposure bioassays or significant mortality with the earthworm bioassay. Total content of metals in MSWC allowed its classification as "stabilised biowaste", according to 2nd draft [DG Env.A.2. Working document of Biological treatment of biowaste - 2nd draft. Directorate-General Environment, Brussels, 12th February; 2001. accessed in:http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/waste/facts_en.htm, at 10/09/2002] while leachate, on the basis of the concentration of these contaminants, could be classified as "inert waste". This residue showed significant ecotoxicity effects with direct exposure bioassays as well as with the luminescent bacteria bioassay. However, it resulted less toxic than SS. Finally, GWC could be classified as a Class 2 compost, with no detectable toxic effects on the organisms used in the bioassays, except for the luminescent bacteria. In this case, an EC(50) of 73.0% was observed. Considering the results, the use of a battery of toxicity test in conjunction with chemical analysis should be suggested, in order to correctly assess possible environmental risks deriving from disposal or land application of biodegradable organic residues.     

Multi-stakeholder process of co-designing small-scale fisheries policy in South Africa

In 2005, a group of researchers, community-based organizations and lawyers got together with small-scale fishers to launch a class action law suit against the government of South Africa in its allocation system of Individual Transferable Quotas, on the ground that the system was unfair to small-scale fishing communities and threatened their right to practise their livelihoods. This effort resulted in the cabinet adoption of a new small-scale fisheries policy in 2014, with amendments being made to fisheries law (the Marine Living Resource Act 18 of 1998) to accommodate the issues and concerns of small-scale fisheries. Draft regulations and an implementation plan have recently been released, paving the way for the implementation of small-scale fisheries allocations in 2016. These legal and policy shifts are of great significance for small-scale fisheries, both in South Africa and elsewhere, and deserve careful examination. This paper discusses the processes leading to the development of a new small-scale fisheries policy and what has followed since. Specifically, the analysis focuses on a variety of collaborations between scholars from different disciplines; researchers from multiple fields; community practitioners representing diverse professional and community perspectives; and community organizations across local, state, national and international levels. The paper uses a model of change that crosses research and practitioner boundaries based on three key strategies: getting noticed; organizing at scale; and getting a seat at the negotiation table. It also considers the “transdisciplinary” process of involving all relevant actors in strategic, collective, reflection–action–reflection–action “from below”, which was crucial in the co-designing of this small-scale policy formulation in South Africa.     

Evaluation of 38 years of radiological environmental data for the nuclear research facility in South Africa

Environmental monitoring has been conducted at the South African National Nuclear Research Facility (Necsa site) for the past 38 years. Included in this monitoring programme was the assessment of water, fish and sediment samples. The objective of this project was to review the data of these assessments to establish if the Necsa activities had any impact on the environment. An assessment of the management of discharge limits was included in the review. Fluctuations in the data reviewed can partly be ascribed to errors in sampling techniques and analysis methods, but mostly to external factors. Two main external factors identified during the review were: dilution effects based on the flowrate in the Crocodile River and the percentage of full capacity of the Hartbeespoort Dam, and the atmospheric fallout from nuclear weapons testing. In this project, the impact of these factors were investigated with the help of correlation coefficient calculations and graphs. It was concluded that the flowrate of the Crocodile River and percentage full capacity of the Hartbeespoort Dam did have an impact on the beta activity measured in water and fish samples, and the (nat)U activities measured in water samples. The measured fallout from nuclear weapons testing in the southern hemisphere also had an impact on the beta activity in water. The assessment of the environmental monitoring data also showed that accidental releases were measurable in the environment. The added routine impact to a member of the public downstream from Necsa was on average an annual dose of 0.54 microSv more than that to a person living upstream from Necsa, which is considered insignificant in international radiation protection norms. The conclusion can be made that the monitoring programme is successful in satisfying its main objective, which is to determine the effects of the discharges on the environment and the immediate population.     

Green procurement in South Africa: perspectives on legislative provisions in metropolitan municipalities

This paper sets an objective to analyse legislative provisions for green procurement in South Africa’s metropolitan municipalities in the context of climate change and sustainable development. The main methods for data generation were interviews and document analysis. There were 30 interviews granted by among others, procurement officers, town planners and economic development specialists. In addition, 51 policy documents were retrieved, followed by a keyword search. The keywords were carefully selected and limited to those commonly used in green procurement terminology to include climate change, green procurement, renewable energy, energy efficiency, mitigation, clean technology, carbon footprint, sustainable development and green economy. The findings are that although all the metropolitan municipalities have procurement policies in place, only the City of Cape Town and eThekwini metropolitan have incorporated green procurement strategies into their supply chain management. The City of Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay metropolitan municipalities also emerged as the only ones with stand-alone green procurement strategies. To this end, the research concludes that legislative provisions mandating green procurement in South African metropolitan municipalities are not entirely lacking, although more work needs to be done to roll this out to cover all the existing metropolitan municipalities.     

The social viability and environmental sustainability of direct action land reform settlements in the Amazon

State-led agrarian reform (SLAR) settlements established in the Amazon in the 1970s led to environmental degradation and mixed socioeconomic outcomes. More recently, direct-action land reform (DALR) settlements have proliferated, which are leading to new forest clearing in the name of agrarian reform. The emergence of DALR begs questions about social and environmental outcomes in recent Amazon settlements. This paper compares DALR settlements in two different regions of the eastern Amazon: the South of Pará and the Transamazon. Analysis of household survey data shows that DALR settlements in the two study areas differ substantially in terms of their histories of formation and regional contexts. However, social and environmental outcomes do not always differ among the two study areas, which in turn resemble older SLAR settlements.     

Protected areas as vehicles in population development: lessons from rural South Africa

Protected areas in developing countries are increasingly expected to move beyond biodiversity protection so as also to contribute to poverty reduction and the economic development of their surrounding communities. The purpose of this article is to report on the key findings that emerged from the assessment of a poverty alleviation programme at the Golden Gate Highlands National Park in South Africa and the lessons learned from that particular programme. Designed around outcomes analysis as an analytical framework for programme evaluation, a mixed-method approach of semi-structured interviews and focus-group sessions was used to collect data from amongst programme beneficiaries, the park management and members of the park’s advisory board. The findings indicate that although programmes of this kind can indeed impact positively on poverty levels, their direct impacts do however remain limited to a relatively small proportion of households in neighbouring communities. The article concludes that by conceptualising poverty as a multidimensional state of well-being, this allows for the exploration of a much broader range of potential social, cultural and economic benefits available from protected areas.     

Identifying key issues in environmental wetland research using scaling and uncertainty analysis

Quantification of the response of wetlands to environmental change and of climate change to wetland processes, is a pressing, but complex, issue. Findings of widely diverse investigations have to be generalised to identify the key issues and the gaps in knowledge. Two tools for generalisation, scaling and uncertainty analysis, were applied here to two case studies and act as stepping stones for analysis of key issues. The first case study is on methane emissions from wetland rice fields and the second is on the restoration of wet dune slacks. The type of problems encountered depends on the scale at which a process is studied. At the biogeochemical processes scale, knowledge on some key parameters, but especially on interactions between key parameters is limiting. At the vegetation scale, feedbacks between processes become especially important, whereas at even larger scales increasingly stringent approximations of interactions have to be made. Accumulating uncertainties at the landscape scale need careful evaluation. Apart from uncertainties in the approximations and their interactions, those introduced by spatial and temporal variability as well as by different data sources highly influence the accuracy of response estimates, while these last sources of uncertainty are neglected in many studies. Only by explicitly accounting for scaling effects and their resulting uncertainties, the interactions between wetlands and environment can be understood.     

Efficiency of common-pool resource institutions: focusing on water users associations in South Africa

Despite of the promulgation of new water laws post-apartheid by the South African government, some parts of the country are still faced with inequitable, inefficient and inadequate water supply. Water institutions in South Africa and other developing countries are faced with various and multi-faceted challenges that consequently lead to their failure to provide water resources effectively. The evident responsibility of governing water resources in developing countries is commonly played by local and national institutions, using the water sector’s fundamental regulations, policies as well as statutory enactments. This paper draws lessons from the international examples to analyse the motivation for WUAs and the challenges they are faced with. The method for data generation used in this article is document analysis. A narrative approach using the literature and document analysis provided an insight into the economic and institutional history of WUAs. The analytical framework to study path dependency and power relations in connection with WUAs in South Africa was drawn from a literature review of transition studies and NIE. This study established that the current and future decisions made by the WUAs in South Africa are not entirely independent of those made in the past under irrigation boards. The study argues that establishing WUAs cannot automatically substitute for the domains of relations which existed within irrigation boards.     

Using multitemporal Landsat TM imagery to establish land use pressure induced trends in forest and woodland cover in sections of the Soutpansberg Mountains of Venda region, Limpopo Province, South Africa

Globally, tropical forests are being perturbed by human activity. Tropical vegetation constitutes some of the largest terrestrial carbon stocks against the build up of greenhouse gases. In this paper, a local-scale case study utilising remote sensing methodology in estimating forest loss is presented, for a section of tropical South Africa’s Soutpansberg Mountains where land use pressure threatens some of the last remaining indigenous forests. Landsat TM images from October 1990, August 2000 and September 2006 were used, together with municipality level demographic data. Hybrid image classification techniques distinguished forest cover on the images, which were classified into vegetation density categories. About 20% of forest and woodland cover was lost in the 16-year analysis period, mainly due to pine and eucalyptus plantation and residential housing expansions. The local-scale key drivers behind the deforestation are examined.