Explanative power of variables used in species distribution modelling: an issue of general model transferability or niche shift in the invasive Greenhouse frog (Eleutherodactylus planirostris)

The use of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict potential distributions of species is steadily increasing. A necessary assumption when projecting models throughout space or time is that climatic niches are conservative, but recent findings of niche shifts during biological invasion of particular plant and animal species have indicated that this assumption is not categorically valid. One reason for observed shifts may relate to variable selection for modelling. In this study, we assess differences in climatic niches in the native and invasive ranges of the Greenhouse frog (Eleutherodactylus planirostris). We analyze which variables are more ‘conserved’ in comparison to more ‘relaxed’ variables (i.e. subject to niche shift) and how they influence transferability of SDMs developed with Maxent on the basis of ten bioclimatic layers best describing the climatic requirements of the target species. We focus on degrees of niche similarity and conservatism using Schoener's index and Hellinger distance. Significance of results are tested with null models. Results indicate that the degrees of niche similarity and conservatism vary greatly among the predictive variables. Some shifts can be attributed to active habitat selection, whereas others apparently reflect variation in the availability of climate conditions or biotic interactions between the frogs' native and invasive ranges. Patterns suggesting active habitat selection also vary among variables. Our findings evoke considerable implications on the transferability of SDMs over space and time, which is strongly affected by the choice and number of predictors. The incorporation of ‘relaxed’ predictors not or only indirectly correlated with biologically meaningful predictors may lead to erroneous predictions when projecting SDMs. We recommend thorough assessments of invasive species' ecology for the identification biologically meaningful predictors facilitating transferability.     

Predicting geogenic groundwater fluoride contamination throughout China

Endemic fluorosis exists in almost all provinces of China. The long-term ingestion of groundwater containing high concentrations of fluoride is one of the main causes of fluorosis. We used artificial neural network to model the relationship between groundwater fluoride concentrations from throughout China and environmental variables such as climatic, geological. and soil parameters as proxy predictors. The results show that the accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model in the test dataset are 80.5% and 0.86%, respectively, and climatic variables are the most effective predictors. Based on the artificial neural network model, a nationwide prediction risk map of fluoride concentrations exceeding 1.5 mg/L with a 0.5 × 0.5 arc minutes resolution was generated. The high risk areas are mainly located in western provinces of Xinjiang, Tibet, Qinghai, and Sichuan, and the northern provinces of Inner Mongolia, Hebei and Shandong. The total number of people estimated to be potentially at risk of fluorosis due to the use of untreated high fluoride groundwater as drinking water is about 89 million, or 6% of the population. The high fluoride groundwater risk map helps the authorities to prioritize areas requiring mitigation measures and thus facilitates the implementation of water improvement and defluoridation projects.     

北方干旱化和土地利用变化对泾河流域径流的影响

论文以在黄土高原上发育,流经中国北方干旱、半干旱地区的黄河二级支流--泾河为研究对象,基于20世纪八九十年代的土地利用影像资料,以及泾河流域1970~2002年的气候、水文资料,采用美国农业部开发的分布式流域水文模型SWAT,分析了20世纪80~90年代泾河流域的降雨量和径流量的变化。从80到90年代,流域年降雨量呈逐年递减趋势,80年代多年平均月降雨量明显大于90年代多年平均月降雨量,尤其在7~9月,平均降雨量明显减少。受气候干旱化和土地利用/覆被变化的共同作用,80~90年代,流域多年平均年径流减少了8.92m³s^-1。为了区分气候变化和土地利用变化对流域径流的影响,采取分别固定气候因子与土地利用/覆被变化因子的方法,将模拟情景输入模型,定量区分气候和土地利用/覆被变化对流域径流的影响方式和程度。结果表明,气候干旱化趋势使流域多年平均年径流减少28.08m³s^-1,为气候、土地利用/覆被变化共同影响径流变化量的314.80%;土地利用/覆被变化使流域多年平均年径流增加26.57m³s^-1,为气候、土地利用/覆被变化共同影响径流变化量的297.87%。     

同型规范变换的不同预测模型具有的兼容性和等效性

传统的不同预测变量的预测模型之间不具有兼容性和等效性,而同型规范变换和误差修正相结合的不同变量的预测模型的预测相对误差与预测对象的维数、样本数及预测模型类型皆无关,仅与预测变量的数据特性、相似样本的模型输出值及其相对误差和相似度有关,因而同型规范变换的不同预测变量的预测模型之间具有兼容性和等效性.其重要意义在于：只要对任意一个预测变量建立了基于规范变换的某种预测模型,就可以将此预测模型直接用于具有同型规范变换的其他预测变量的预测;若再将其与误差修正法相结合,还可以极大地提高模型的预测精度,获得与实际值很接近的预测结果.依据受3个因子影响的灞河口COD_Mn指数数据、受4个因子影响的伊犁河雅马渡站年径流量数据和牡丹江市TSP年均值的时序数据,分别建立具有同型规范变换（n_j=2）的3个不同预测变量的3种智能预测模型和一元线性回归预测模型,并验证了3个不同预测变量的预测模型之间的兼容性和等效性.对同一个预测样本,用同型规范变换和误差修正相结合的不同预测变量的预测模型的实际预测值及其预测相对误差绝对值不仅差异甚微,而且预测值与实际值非常接近,其预测的相对误差绝对值平均值几乎全都小于3%,最大相对误差绝对值均小于5%,小于或远小于20种传统预测模型和方法预测的相应误差.     

Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Larix Spp. and Pinus Sylvestris and Their Climatypes in Siberia

Inter- and intraspecific effects of climate change were assessed for the dominant conifers of Siberia (60–140^∘E and 48–75^∘N): Larix spp. (L. sibirica, L. dahurica, and L. sukaczewii) and Pinus sylvestris . The approach employed a tri-variate (degree-days above 5 ^∘C, degree-days below 0 ^∘C, and a moisture index) estimate of the climatic envelope within which exists the actual ecological distribution of a species and their constituent climatypes (genotypes physiologically attuned to similar environments). Limits of the actual ecological distribution were approximated by reducing the climatic envelope according to effects of permafrost and interspecific competition. Climatypes were mapped within the climatic envelope according to the climatic interval that must separate populations for reasonable assurance of genetic differentiation. This interval was calculated from response functions that related 13-year growth and survival of a species to the difference in climate between the provenance of a climatype and the climate of numerous test sites distributed across Russia. Mapping species' distributions and their climatypes was done for the contemporary climate and for future climates predicted by the HadCM3GGa1 scenario of Hadley Centre. The results showed that if the forests of the future are to reflect the adaptedness of today, the distribution of species will shift and genotypes within species will be redistributed. Some contemporary climatypes are projected to disappear from Siberia while others common elsewhere would evolve. To mitigate these effects, climatypes should be transferred today to the expected future location of their climatic optima, a distance that is likely to approach 700–1200 km for these species.     

Ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change: defining hotspot municipalities for policy design and implementation in Brazil

We developed an indicator that defines priority municipalities in order to facilitate the deployment of preventive policies and strategies for ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change (EbA) in Brazilian municipalities. Based on the premises that poor people are the population most vulnerable to climate change and that conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and ecosystems are adaptive to climate change, our indicator uses three parameters: (1) poverty, (2) proportion of natural-vegetation cover, and (3) exposure to climate change. Thus, we searched for Brazilian municipalities that simultaneously belonged to the quartile of municipalities with the highest percentage of poverty, the quartile with the highest percentage of natural-vegetation cover, and the quartile with the highest exposure indices in two global climate models (Eta-HadGEM, Eta-Miroc). We found 398 (7.1%) EbA hotspots among 5565 Brazilian municipalities, which comprise 36% of the total area of native remnants in the country and are home to 22% of the poor people in Brazil. In their majority, these municipalities cover significant portions of the Amazon, Cerrado, Caatinga, and Atlantic forest, and indeed, these regions are recognised as some of the most vulnerable to climate change in the world. Considering the relevance of these biomes for the global water and nutrient cycle (Amazon), global food security (Cerrado), vulnerability to desertification (Caatinga), and biodiversity (all) we discuss the adaptive strategies in place, the need to bring them to scale, and existing policy gaps. Finally, in an effort to guide international and national investment and policies, we discuss how the approach described here can be applied to societies inhabiting tropical forests, savannas, and semiarid zones in other parts of the world. In particular, we propose that the indicator developed here is a simple and fast way to achieve early detection of priority municipalities for deployment of EbA action and policies, particularly in tropical developing countries.     

黄土高原生态系统过渡带土地覆盖的时空变化分析

在全球气候变化及其生态环境效应研究中,生态系统过渡带作为气候变化和人类活动的敏感区域,其土地覆盖的时空变化分析逐渐成为土地利用科学研究的热点问题。基于GIS的时空分析方法,在对Holdridge生命地带模型的判别标准进行改进的基础上,构建了生态系统过渡带的时空分析模型。在建立土地覆盖正向和逆向转换规则的基础上,构建了土地覆盖正向和逆向转换指数模型。并以黄土高原为案例区,在定量识别生态系统过渡带类型及其空间格局的基础上,定量评价了各种生态系统过渡带类型土地覆盖的转换情况。模拟分析结果表明,黄土高原地区共有14种生态系统过渡带类型,其总面积占整个黄土高原的25.21%。在1985-2005年期间,黄土高原生态系统过渡带内的耕地面积平均每10 a减少0.93%,而湿地和水体、林地、草地的面积则平均每10 a分别增加3.47%、0.24%、0.06%。整个过渡带区域土地覆盖的转换率从28.53%降低到21.91%,且其正向转换和逆向转换面积总体上均呈减少的趋势。另外,黄土高原生态系统过渡带区域和非过渡带区域的土地覆盖转换率对比分析显示,过渡带区域土地覆盖的转换率高于非过渡带区域。     

Insectivorous birds consume an estimated 400–500 million tons of prey annually

In this paper, we present an estimate of the predation impact of the global population of insectivorous birds based on 103 (for the most part) published studies of prey consumption (kg ha^?1 season^?1) of insectivorous birds in seven biome types. By extrapolation—taking into account the global land cover of the various biomes—an estimate of the annual prey consumption of the world’s insectivorous birds was obtained. We estimate the prey biomass consumed by the world’s insectivorous birds to be somewhere between 400 and 500 million metric tons year^?1, but most likely at the lower end of this range (corresponding to an energy consumption of ≈?2.7?×?10¹⁸ J year^?1 or ≈?0.15% of the global terrestrial net primary production). Birds in forests account for >?70% of the global annual prey consumption of insectivorous birds (≥?300 million tons year^?1), whereas birds in other biomes (savannas and grasslands, croplands, deserts, and Arctic tundra) are less significant contributors (≥?100 million tons year^?1). Especially during the breeding season, when adult birds feed their nestlings protein-rich prey, large numbers of herbivorous insects (i.e., primarily in the orders Coleoptera, Diptera, Hemiptera, Hymenoptera, Lepidoptera, and Orthoptera) supplemented by spiders are captured. The estimates presented in this paper emphasize the ecological and economic importance of insectivorous birds in suppressing potentially harmful insect pests on a global scale—especially in forested areas.     

Climate Modelling,Uncertainty and Responses to Predictions of Change

Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by,inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (or, better, adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. The urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions ofglobal climatic change and the need for information onlocal to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. Moreover, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. Unfortunately, climate models cannot yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes.     

Ecological impacts and management strategies for western larch in the face of climate-change

Approximately 185,000 forest inventory and ecological plots from both USA and Canada were used to predict the contemporary distribution of western larch (Larix occidentalis Nutt.) from climate variables. The random forests algorithm, using an 8-variable model, produced an overall error rate of about 2.9 %, nearly all of which consisted of predicting presence at locations where the species was absent. Genetic variation among 143 populations within western larch’s natural distribution was predicted from multiple regression models using variables describing the climate of the seed source as predictors and response data from two separate genetic tests: 1) 15-year height at a field site in British Columbia, Canada, and, 2) two principal components of 8 variables describing growth, disease tolerance, and phenology of 6-year-old trees in a test in Idaho, USA. Presence and absence of the species and genetic variation within the species were projected into future climates provided by three General Circulation Models and two scenarios. Although the projections described pronounced impacts on the species and its populations, concurrence among the six projections pinpointed areas where the probability would be high that the future climate would be suitable for western larch. Concurrence among projections also was used to locate those sources of seed that should be best attuned genetically to future climates. The procedures outline a logical approach for developing management strategies for accommodating climate-change while taking into account the variability imposed by the differences among climatic estimates.     

Impacts of climate factors on yields for selected crops in the Southern Turkey

This study aims to identify therelationship between the climatic variablesand yields of three crops (wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), maize (Zeamays L.) and cotton (Gossypiumhirsitum L.) in the Cukurova region ofTurkey. In the study, time series data wereused to analyse crop yields across variousclimate factors for the period 1975 to1999. The climatic variables were arrangedaccording to phonological periods of theexamined crops such as planting, floweringand harvesting time. A linear perturbationmodel (LPM) was used for the identificationof the role of climate variables. 27climatic factors were considered asexplanatory variables in the model. Astepwise selection method in the selectionand introduction of independent variableswas used for regression equation for wheat,maize and cotton. The results of the linearperturbation model (LPM) showed that theR² values for wheat, maize and cottonwere found 46.1%, 57.2% and 74.5%,respectively. The highest variationcoefficient (CV) was found in maizeproduction (43.4%) followed by cotton(23.14%) and wheat (15.29%). The mostsignificant climatic factor affectingdeviations in crop yields is related intemperature at planting, flowering andharvesting time. It is suggested thatfarmers would be better off with theapplying adaptation measurements. Therefore, policy makers should focusefforts on reducing production risksproviding climatic information anddeveloping risk management institutions.     

中中新世气候适宜期西北内陆干旱区气候演化特征

中中新世气候适宜期是距离现今最近的一个未受人类活动影响的气候适宜阶段,现有记录大多显示全球在中中新世气候适宜期期间气候以暖湿为特征。我国西北内陆干旱区作为北半球中纬度面积最大的干旱带的重要组成部分,其气候如何响应全球中中新世气候适宜期的气候变化对预测全球变暖背景下西北内陆干旱区气候变化趋势及实现生态建设具有重要的指导意义。本文总结了西北内陆干旱区具有年代控制的15个剖面的孢粉、同位素、磁化率等19项记录,并选取各记录中指示意义明确的气候代用指标进行集成、分析,发现多数剖面在中中新世气候适宜期的不同时段出现了湿润化特征,但湿润化的出现、结束时间不同,自西向东,湿润事件结束(或适宜期后干旱化增强事件出现)的时间变晚。推测西北内陆干旱区中中新世气候适宜期的气候演化主要受全球气候变化影响,但湿润事件结束或适宜期后干旱化增强事件出现及其呈现出的时空差异则受区域构造活动及气候系统等因素控制。     

面向密闭空间内外温度的时序预测模型

目的 研究密闭空间条件下已知外部温度时间序列对内部实时温度的预测推理问题。方法 选取密闭空间内外温度时序预测典型场景,抽象为多变量时间序列预测问题,分析变量间的关联性和依赖性。借鉴特征融合、注意力机制、多任务模型等思路,结合物理机制与数据特征,基于长短期记忆网络基本网络单元,构建密闭空间内外温度时序预测模型,并在万宁、敦煌、漠河对某型密闭空间进行数据采样,基于三地数据集进行不同模型试验。结果 多变量模型比单变量模型具有更好性能,注意力机制对该场景没有显著性能提升,结合物理机制的模型结构设计充分考虑了变量之间的关联性和依赖性,能显著提升预测精度,双输入双输出的多变量时序预测模型具有相对最高的精度和最稳定的鲁棒性,是面向密闭空间内外温度时序预测的相对最优模型。结论 研究结论可指导密闭空间其他环境特征建模,研究思路可为其他多变量时序建模问题中变量之间的关联性、依赖性分析提供参考。     

融合多源时空数据的地下水硫酸盐预测模型

准确预测地下水SO₄ ^2-空间变化趋势对改善地下水质量、提高区域地下水管理水平具有重要意义.以2011、2014、2017和2020年叶尔羌河流域平原区土地覆盖数据、土壤参数数据、数字高程数据等多源时空数据和地下水pH值为特征变量,分析其与地下水SO₄ ^2-浓度的相关性,利用贝叶斯优化算法优化随机森林回归,建立BOA-RFR模型,并基于BOA-RFR模型对特征变量进行重要性分析,对模型预测精度进行评价,最后生成地下水SO₄ ^2-预测图.结果表明,pH值、地面高程（GE）和贡献区荒地（BAR）面积占比作为影响地下水水化学组分的重要参数,与地下水SO₄ ^2-浓度均呈现极显著负相关,对地下水SO₄ ^2-浓度预测的重要度均大于25 %;地统计插值方法作为空间分布预测建模的辅助手段,加入辅助样本后的BOA-RFR模型,地下水SO₄ ^2-浓度预测的R²均大于0.96,且多辅助样本构建模型的RMSE和MAE最大值较少样本模型的最小值分别降低了4.7 %和23.8 %;在地下水SO₄ ^2-浓度预测中,高SO₄ ^2-地下水向叶尔羌河流域平原区东北部富集,且面积呈扩张趋势.     

温室气体对气候环境的影响预测及其不确定性

随着温室气体排放量的增加,联系温室气体特有的保温效应,大气平均气温将升高。在采用气候模式对未来近百年的气候变化做出一定预测的基础上,分析未来可能出现的气候变化所造成的对气候环境方面的影响。详细分析了现阶段预测未来气候环境变化存在的不确定性,正是这些不确定性影响了预测的可信度。     

The International Boreal Forest Research Association: Understanding Boreal Forests and Forestry in a Changing World

Boreal forests represent a biome of the planet whose unique characteristics are changing rapidly under the influence of both human and natural pressures. These forests hold the key to current and future supply of coniferous industrial wood and at the same time play a significant role in regulating Earth's climatic system. Expected to be one of the most rapidly impacted regions of the world by future climate change, the boreal biome has already been substantially affected by global change. It is likely that if unabated, continued change will lead to impoverishment and degradation of boreal ecosystems, with consequent loss of vital services upon which human society depends. An improved systems understanding of the functioning of circumpolar boreal forests is a pressing challenge for boreal forest science and is needed in order to estimate their resilience to perturbations, to predict likely responses to the changing environment, and to design mitigation strategies. With such understanding, coordinated international efforts can be focused on developing anticipatory strategies for adaptation to, and mitigation of dangerous consequences of global change for boreal resources. The International Boreal Forest Research Association (IBFRA) provides a focus for international research on these issues and serves as a global window for boreal forest science and sustainable forest management in the boreal region.     

泾惠渠灌区潜在蒸散发量的敏感性及变化成因

潜在蒸散发量(ET₀)是计算作物需水量的关键因子和制定灌溉制度的依据,敏感性分析对评估气候变化对ET₀的影响至关重要.根据泾惠渠灌区4 个气象站1961—2011 年逐日气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith 公式计算日ET₀,应用Mann-Kendall 趋势检验方法研究气象因子变化趋势,采用无量纲的相对敏感系数分析ET₀对4 个主要气象因子的敏感性,结合气象因子的多年变化定量分析ET₀的变化成因.结果表明,泾惠渠灌区风速和日照时数呈显著下降趋势,气温呈显著上升趋势,相对湿度在南部和东南部呈显著下降趋势,而西部和东北部呈不显著的上升趋势,ET₀呈显著下降趋势;ET₀对相对湿度、太阳辐射、风速和气温的敏感系数分别为-0.77、0.41、0.16 和0.08;风速和太阳辐射的显著下降是灌区ET₀下降的主要原因.     

Assessing local climate vulnerability and winegrowers’ adaptive processes in the context of climate change

Adaptation to climate change is a major challenge facing the viticulture sector. Temporally, adaptation strategies and policies have to address potential impacts in both the short- and long term, whereas spatially, place-based and context-specific adaptations are essential. To help inform decision-making on climate change adaptation, this study adopted a bottom-up approach to assess local climate vulnerability and winegrowers’ adaptive processes in two regulated wine-producing areas in the Anjou-Saumur wine growing sub-region, France. The data used for this study were collected through individual semi-structured interviews with 30 winegrowers. With a focus on wine quality, climate-related exposure, and sensitivity were dependent on many contextual factors (e.g., northern geographical position, wine regulatory frameworks, local environmental features) interacting with the regional oceanic climate. Climate and other non-climate-related variables brought about important changes in winegrowers’ management practices, varying in time and space. This ongoing process in decision-making enhanced winegrowers’ adaptive responses, which were primarily reactive (e.g., harvesting, winemaking) or anticipatory (e.g., canopy and soil management) to short-term climate conditions. Winegrowers described changing trends in climate- and grapevine (Vitis) -related variables, with the latter attributed to regional climate changes and evolving management practices. Regarding future climate trends, winegrowers’ displayed great uncertainty, placing the most urgent adaptation priority on short-term strategies, while changing grapevine varieties and using irrigation were identified as last resort strategies. The study concluded by discussing the implications of these findings in the context of climate change adaptation in viticulture.     

基于机器学习的交通碳排放预测模型构建与分析

针对交通运输碳排放问题,基于2005~2019年30个省份的面板数据,采用多种机器学习算法构建不同预测模型对30个省份的交通碳排放量与影响因素进行分析.首先,基于固定效应模型思想将省份差异转化为影响因素,进一步采用Pearson相关系数法与Spearman秩相关系数相结合的方法对18个交通碳排放影响因素进行筛选;其次,采用K-折交叉验证方法,并绘制学习曲线对各预测模型性能进行测试,选用MSE、MAE、R²和MAPE作为模型的评价指标进行分析,来选定最佳预测模型,并选择SHAP值来计算最佳预测模型中各解释变量的重要度.结果表明,省份差异、社会商品消费总额、城市绿地面积、货运周转量、私家车数量、交通运输业产值和常住人口这7个因素之间多重共线性弱且均通过显著性检验,可作为交通运输碳排放预测模型的解释变量;随机森林算法和XGBoost算法预测结果均表现优异,R²均高于0.97,误差均低于10 %,且不存在过拟合与欠拟合现象,其中XGBoost算法表现最优,而KNN算法表现欠佳;各解释变量的重要度排名为:省份差异 > 社会商品消费总额 > 私家车数量 > 常住人口 > 货运周转量 > 城市绿地面积 > 交通运输业产值, 综合相关性与重要性分析来看,在交通运输碳排放预测中,省份差异是一个不可忽视的变量.研究结果可为政策制定者和决策者提供参考,促进交通运输行业的可持续发展.     

大型气候环境实验室上部运输系统的方案设计

目的设计出满足气候环境实验室的上部运输系统。方法根据国内外实验室上部运输系统的设计经验,结合实际使用情况,设计出满足实验室使用条件的上部运输系统方案。结果设计出的上部运输系统直接参与各环境试验的运输、吊装工作,满足气候实验室的环境条件,且具有安全可靠、便于操作维护等特点。结论设计出的上部运输系统满足气候环境实验室的使用要求。