Predicting arsenic concentrations in groundwater of San Luis Valley,Colorado: implications for individual-level lifetime exposure assessment

Consumption of inorganic arsenic in drinking water at high levels has been associated with chronic diseases. Risk is less clear at lower levels of arsenic, in part due to difficulties in estimating exposure. Herein we characterize spatial and temporal variability of arsenic concentrations and develop models for predicting aquifer arsenic concentrations in the San Luis Valley, Colorado, an area of moderately elevated arsenic in groundwater. This study included historical water samples with total arsenic concentrations from 595 unique well locations. A longitudinal analysis established temporal stability in arsenic levels in individual wells. The mean arsenic levels for a random sample of 535 wells were incorporated into five kriging models to predict groundwater arsenic concentrations at any point in time. A separate validation dataset (n = 60 wells) was used to identify the model with strongest predictability. Findings indicate that arsenic concentrations are temporally stable (r = 0.88; 95 % CI 0.83–0.92 for samples collected from the same well 15–25 years apart) and the spatial model created using ordinary kriging best predicted arsenic concentrations (ρ = 0.72 between predicted and observed validation data). These findings illustrate the value of geostatistical modeling of arsenic and suggest the San Luis Valley is a good region for conducting epidemiologic studies of groundwater metals because of the ability to accurately predict variation in groundwater arsenic concentrations.     

Estimating the area affected by phosphorus runoff in an Everglades wetland: a comparison of universal kriging and Bayesian kriging

Phosphorus-enriched agriculture runoff is believed to be the leading cause of ecosystem changes of Everglades wetlands. To study this effect, it is necessary to estimate the area of the affected region. In this study, Bayesian kriging and universal kriging were used to estimate the area by analysing the data collected by Reddy et al. (1991). The background level of the soil's total phosphorus concentration is usedto determine whether the region is affected by the agriculture runoff, through an indicator function. The area of the affected region was represented by the integration of the indicator function over the entire wetland. The expected value of the affected area was calculated using the results derived from Bayesian and universal kriging. The outcome indicates that universal kriging is sensitive to specification of thecovariance model. It was observed that universal kriging and Bayesian kriging yield comparable results, if the specified covariance structures are of similar nature.     

The nitrate time bomb: a numerical way to investigate nitrate storage and lag time in the unsaturated zone

Nitrate pollution in groundwater, which is mainly from agricultural activities, remains an international problem. It threatens the environment, economics and human health. There is a rising trend in nitrate concentrations in many UK groundwater bodies. Research has shown it can take decades for leached nitrate from the soil to discharge into groundwater and surface water due to the ‘store’ of nitrate and its potentially long travel time in the unsaturated and saturated zones. However, this time lag is rarely considered in current water nitrate management and policy development. The aim of this study was to develop a catchment-scale integrated numerical method to investigate the nitrate lag time in the groundwater system, and the Eden Valley, UK, was selected as a case study area. The method involves three models, namely the nitrate time bomb—a process-based model to simulate the nitrate transport in the unsaturated zone (USZ), GISGroundwater—a GISGroundwater flow model, and N-FM—a model to simulate the nitrate transport in the saturated zone. This study answers the scientific questions of when the nitrate currently in the groundwater was loaded into the unsaturated zones and eventually reached the water table; is the rising groundwater nitrate concentration in the study area caused by historic nitrate load; what caused the uneven distribution of groundwater nitrate concentration in the study area; and whether the historic peak nitrate loading has reached the water table in the area. The groundwater nitrate in the area was mainly from the 1980s to 2000s, whilst the groundwater nitrate in most of the source protection zones leached into the system during 1940s–1970s; the large and spatially variable thickness of the USZ is one of the major reasons for unevenly distributed groundwater nitrate concentrations in the study area; the peak nitrate loading around 1983 has affected most of the study area. For areas around the Bowscar, Beacon Edge, Low Plains, Nord Vue, Dale Springs, Gamblesby, Bankwood Springs, and Cliburn, the peak nitrate loading will arrive at the water table in the next 34 years; statistical analysis shows that 8.7 % of the Penrith Sandstone and 7.3 % of the St Bees Sandstone have not been affected by peak nitrate. This research can improve the scientific understanding of nitrate processes in the groundwater system and support the effective management of groundwater nitrate pollution for the study area. With a limited number of parameters, the method and models developed in this study are readily transferable to other areas.     

Effect of excess fluoride ingestion on human thyroid function in Gaya region,Bihar, India

Fluoride (F) is mainly ingested through drinking water and food. In addition to producing dental and skeletal fluorosis, excess fluoride may affect the functioning of many organs including the thyroid gland. The present study investigated the thyroid function of subjects with dental fluorosis from F-endemic areas of Gaya region, Bihar, India and compared it with control individuals from Bodh Gaya. The mean F concentration in groundwater of F-endemic area was 2.82 ± 0.18 mg/L (range 0.62–7.2 mg/L), while that of control area was 0.49 ± 0.04 mg/L (range 0.21–0.76 mg/L). Abnormal levels of T3, T4, and TSH were found in the study subjects from both control and F-endemic areas.     

Spatial distribution and human health risk assessment of mercury in street dust resulting from various land-use in Ahvaz,Iran

Mercury as a toxic element and its associated health hazard has been an important topic of research for urban pollution for many years. In this paper, the spatial distribution, pollution assessment, and health risk associated with Hg in roadside dust 96 street dust samples, representing differing land-uses, have been investigated. Land-uses included residential areas (RA), industrial areas (IA), public gardens (PG), roadside areas (RS), and suburban areas (SA) in the city of Ahvaz, Iran were investigated. Compared with other cities, the concentration of Hg in Ahvaz was considerably higher with a mean value of 2.53 mg kg^?1, ranging from 0.02 to 8.75 mg kg^?1. Residential areas exhibited higher Hg in street dust than other areas, as demonstrated by spatial mapping illustrating hot spots associated with old urban areas with high residential density, high volume traffic of roadside areas, and industrial districts: including oil-drilling activities, steel smelting-related industries, and small industrial towns around Ahvaz. However, Hg concentrations in street dust near to the public gardens (PG) and suburban areas (SA) were not at elevated levels compared other land-uses investigated in this study. A health risk assessment model of non-carcinogenic effects was evaluated for both children and adults. The HQ values also revealed that the main exposures route for children and adults decreased as follows: vapour > ingestion > dermal contact > inhalation. The hazard index (HI) in each area is less than the safe level (HI ≤ 1) for children and adults, but higher for children. The HI value decreases as the following order: RS > IA > RA > SA > PG, which indicates potentially serious health hazards for children in the study areas.     

A GIS-based approach to spatio-temporal analysis of environmental pollution in urban areas: A case study of Prague's environment extended by LIDAR data

Environmental pollution of urban areas is one of key factors that state authorities and local agencies have to consider in the decision-making process. To find a compromise among many criteria, spatial analysis extended by geostatistical methods and dynamic models has to be carried out. In this case, spatial analysis includes processing of a wide range of air, water and soil pollution data and possibly noise assessment and waste management data. Other spatial inputs consist of data from remote sensing and GPS field measurements. Integration and spatial data management are carried out within the framework of a geographic information system (GIS). From a modeling point of view, GIS is used mainly for the preprocessing and postprocessing of data to be displayed in digital map layers and visualized in 3D scenes. Moreover, for preprocessing and postprocessing, deterministic and geostatistical methods (IDW, ordinary kriging) are used for spatial interpolation; geoprocessing and raster algebra are used in multi-criteria evaluation and risk assessment methods. GIS is also used as a platform for spatio-temporal analyses or for building relationships between the GIS database and stand-alone modeling tools. A case study is presented illustrating the application of spatial analysis to the urban areas of Prague. This involved incorporating environmental data from monitoring networks and field measurements into digital map layers. Extra data inputs were used to represent the 3D concentration fields of air pollutants (ozone, NO₂) measured by differential absorption LIDAR. ArcGIS was used to provide spatial data management and analysis, extended by modeling tools developed internally in the ArcObjects environment and external modules developed with MapObjects. Ordinary kriging methods were employed to predict ozone concentrations in selected 3D locations together with estimates of variability. Higher ozone concentrations were found above crossroads with their heavy traffic than above the surrounding areas. Ozone concentrations also varied with height above the digital elevation model. Processed data, spatial analysis and models are integrated within the framework of the GIS project, providing an approach that state and local authorities can use to address environmental protection issues.     

Heavy metal contamination and human health risk assessment in drinking water from shallow groundwater wells in an agricultural area in Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand

Most local people in the agricultural areas of Hua-ruea sub-district, Ubon Ratchathani province (Thailand), generally consume shallow groundwater from farm wells. This study aimed to assess the health risk related to heavy metal contamination in that groundwater. Samples were randomly collected from 12 wells twice in each of the rainy and the dry seasons and were analyzed by inductive coupled plasma spectrometry-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The concentration of detected metals in each well and the overall mean were below the acceptable groundwater standard limits for As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni and Zn, but Pb levels were higher in four wells with an overall average Pb concentration of 16.66 ± 18.52 μg/l. Exposure questionnaires, completed by face-to-face interviews with 100 local people who drink groundwater from farm wells, were used to evaluate the hazard quotients (HQs) and hazard indices (HIs). The HQs for non-carcinogenic risk for As, Cu, Zn and Pb, with a range of 0.004–2.901, 0.053–54.818, 0.003–6.399 and 0.007–26.80, respectively, and the HI values (range from 0.10 to 88.21) exceeded acceptable limits in 58 % of the wells. The HI results were higher than one for groundwater wells located in intensively cultivated chili fields. The highest cancer risk found was 2.6 × 10^?6 for As in well no. 11. This study suggested that people living in warmer climates are more susceptible to and at greater risk of groundwater contamination because of their increased daily drinking water intake. This may lead to an increased number of cases of non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health defects among local people exposed to heavy metals by drinking the groundwater.     

Geochemical provenance and spatial distribution of fluoride in groundwater of Mayo Tsanaga River Basin, Far North Region, Cameroon: implications for incidence of fluorosis and optimal consumption dose

The 500,000 inhabitants of Mayo Tsanaga River Basin are vulnerable to a “silent” fluorosis from groundwater consumption. For the first time, the groundwater is investigated for the purpose of identifying the provenance of fluoride and estimating an optimal dose of fluoride in the study area. Based on the fluoride content of groundwater, fluorine and major oxides abundances in rocks from the study area, mean annual atmospheric temperature, and on-site diagnosis of fluorosis in children, the following results and conclusions are obtained: Fluoride concentration in groundwater ranges from 0.19 to 15.2 mg/l. Samples with fluoride content of <1.5 mg/l show Ca–HCO₃ signatures, while those with fluoride >1.5 mg/l show a tendency towards Na-HCO₃ type. Fluor-apatite and micas in the granites were identified as the main provenance of fluoride in the groundwater through water-rock interactions in an alkaline medium. The optimal fluoride dose in drinking water of the study area should be 0.7 mg/l, and could be adjusted downward to a level of 0.6 mg/l due to the high consumption rate of groundwater, especially during drier periods.     

禹城地区土壤铅含量空间分布的指示克里格估值

以鲁西北禹城地区土壤重金属Pb含量为例,针对其存在特异值与偏态分布的特点,利用指示克里格法研究了土壤Pb含量小于特定阈值的条件概率分布,分析了该地区土壤Pb含量的空间分布特征,并对普通克里格和指示克里格的估值效果进行交叉验证。结果表明：研究区土壤Pb含量总体较低,未超过国家标准的限值,但不同部位土壤Pb含量差异较大;普通克里格法和指示克里格法形成的土壤Pb含量空间分布格局相似,但普通克里格法的平滑效果强于指示克里格法;研究区域土壤环境质量总体良好,Pb含量高值区主要集中在各乡镇驻地附近的农田;指示克里格对土壤Pb含量空间估值的精度优于普通克里格,指示克里格法更适用于原始数据呈非正态分布且特异值对估值结果有较大影响的土壤属性。本研究结果为该地区土壤环境质量评价和重金属污染防控提供科学依据。     

Levels and distributions of organochlorine pesticides in the soil–groundwater system of vegetable planting area in Tianjin City,Northern China

To study the influence of long-term pesticide application on the distribution of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in the soil–groundwater system, 19 soil samples and 19 groundwater samples were collected from agricultural area with long-term pesticide application history in Northern China. Results showed that the composition of OCPs changed significantly from soil to groundwater. For example, ∑DDT, ∑HCH, and ∑heptachlor had high levels in the soil and low levels in the groundwater; in contrast, endrin had low level in the soil and high level in the groundwater. Further study showed that OCP distribution in the soil was significantly influenced by its residue time, soil organic carbon level, and small soil particle contents (i.d. <0.0002 mm). Correlation analysis also indicates that the distribution of OCPs in the groundwater was closely related to the levels of OCPs in the soil layer, which may act as a pollution source.     

Window of opportunity of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Liparis loeselii</Emphasis> populations during vegetation succession on the Wadden Sea islands

The present study aims at assessing the life span of populations of the orchid L. loeselii during successional in dune slacks on the Wadden Sea islands. An inventory of Liparis loeselii populations was carried out on 6 islands, while the population structure was assessed in more detail on the island of Texel. The occurrence of the orchid was related to soil factors and hydrological conditions. Groundwater levels were measured in a dune area with natural dune slack formation. The groundwater composition was analyses and the freshwater lenses were modelled. Various scenarios were investigated, including sea level rise and sand nourishment. The window of opportunity for L. loeselii to colonize a new slack is relatively narrow. Under favorable management, the population can survive c. 20 years. Soil pH was positively correlated with the occurrence of L. loeselii populations, while a high organic matter content was negatively correlated. Sites with large populations of L. loeselii, were situated in young dune slacks, that functioned as flow-through lakes and has top soilsinfluenced by anoxic calcareous groundwater. Modelling showed that the freshwater lens would decrease due to sea level rise, while artificial sand nourishment could counteract this effect. The populations of the Hors area on Texel, the Netherlands, can survive for several decades due to continuous formation of new slacks. Discharge of calcareous groundwater is essential to keep the pH on a high level. The hydrological systems that supply dune slack with groundwater are relatively small and are vulnerable for changes in sea level rise.     

Spatial methods for plot-based sampling of wildlife populations

Classical sampling methods can be used to estimate the mean of a finite or infinite population. Block kriging also estimates the mean, but of an infinite population in a continuous spatial domain. In this paper, I consider a finite population version of block kriging (FPBK) for plot-based sampling. The data are assumed to come from a spatial stochastic process. Minimizing mean-squared-prediction errors yields best linear unbiased predictions that are a finite population version of block kriging. FPBK has versions comparable to simple random sampling and stratified sampling, and includes the general linear model. This method has been tested for several years for moose surveys in Alaska, and an example is given where results are compared to stratified random sampling. In general, assuming a spatial model gives three main advantages over classical sampling: (1) FPBK is usually more precise than simple or stratified random sampling, (2) FPBK allows small area estimation, and (3) FPBK allows nonrandom sampling designs.     

Evaluation of rare earth elements in groundwater of Lagos and Ogun States,Southwest Nigeria

Rare earth elements in our environment are becoming important because of their utilization in permanent magnets, lamp phosphors, superconductors, rechargeable batteries, catalyst, ceramics and other applications. This study was conducted to evaluate the level of rare earth elements (REE) and the variability of their anomalous behavior in groundwater samples collected from Lagos and Ogun States, Southwest, Nigeria. REE concentrations were determined in 170 groundwater samples using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry, while the physicochemical parameters were determined using standard methods. Lagos State groundwater is enriched with REE [sum REEs range (mean ± SD)]; [0.365–488 (69.5 ± 117)] µg L^?1 than Ogun State groundwater [sum REEs range (mean ± SD)]; [1.14–232 (22.6 ± 41.1)] µg L^?1. Boreholes are more enriched with REEs than wells. Significant (P < 0.05) positive correlation (R = Pearson) was recorded in Lagos State groundwater between sum REEs and Fe (R = 0.55). However, there were no significant correlations between sum REEs, pH (R = 0.073) and HCO₃ ^2? (R = 0.157) in Ogun State groundwater. Chondrite-normalized plot shows that Lagos groundwater exhibits positive Ce anomaly, while Ogun State groundwater does not. The source of REE in Lagos State may be from the ocean and leaching from wastes dumpsites, while the source in Ogun State groundwater may be from the rocks.     

GIS-based risk assessment for the Nile Delta coastal zone under different sea level rise scenarios case study: Kafr EL Sheikh Governorate, Egypt

Sea level changes are caused by several natural phenomena, including mainly ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica. It was estimated, in this respect, that global average sea level rose, during the 20th Century, by at least 10 cm. This trend is expected to continue and most likely accelerated during the 21st Century due to human-induced global warming. Global average sea level is expected to rise, by the year 2100, due to global warming between 0.18 and 0.59 cm. Such a rise in sea-level will significantly impact coastal areas due to the high concentration of natural and socioeconomic activities and assets located along the coast. The northern coastal zone of the Nile Delta is generally low land, and is consequently vulnerable to direct and indirect impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate changes, particularly inundation. Despite the uncertainty associated with developed scenarios for climate change and expected SLR, there is a need, according to precautionary approach, to assess and analyze the impacts of SLR. Such an assessment, on one hand, can assist in formulating effective adaptation options to specific, sometimes localized, impacts of SLR. On the other hand, such an analysis can contribute significantly to the development of integrated approach to deal with the impacts of SLR. The objective of this paper is to assess and spatially analyze the risks of expected sea level rise (SLR), in particular inundation, and its implications up to the year 2100 in Kafr El Sheikh Governorate, Egypt, using GIS techniques. For that purpose, a GIS was developed for the study area and then utilized to identify the spatial extent of those areas that would be vulnerable to inundation by SLR. Moreover, various land uses/land covers susceptible to such inundation were identified. Results indicate that more than 22.59 % and 24.50 % of the total area of Kafr El Sheikh Governorate would be vulnerable to inundation under B1 and A1FI (IPCC most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios), respectively. No significant difference was noticed between the two scenarios in terms of spatial extent of SLR impacts. It was also found that a significant proportion of these areas were found to be currently either undeveloped or wetlands. Moreover, it was found that about 90.13 % of the vulnerable areas are actually less exposed to the risks of SLR due to the existence of a number of man-made features, not intended as protection measures, e.g. International Coastal Highway, that can be used to limit the areas vulnerable to inundations by SLR.     

External drift kriging of NOx concentrations with dispersion model output in a reduced air quality monitoring network

In the mid nineteen eighties the Dutch NO_x air quality monitoring network was reduced from 73 to 32 rural and city background stations, leading to higher spatial uncertainties. In this study, several other sources of information are being used to help reduce uncertainties in parameter estimation and spatial mapping. For parameter estimation, we used Bayesian inference. For mapping, we used kriging with external drift (KED) including secondary information from a dispersion model. The methods were applied to atmospheric NO_x concentrations on rural and urban scales. We compared Bayesian estimation with restricted maximum likelihood estimation and KED with universal kriging. As a reference we also included ordinary least squares (OLS). Comparison of several parameter estimation and spatial interpolation methods was done by cross-validation. Bayesian analysis resulted in an error reduction of 10 to 20% as compared to restricted maximum likelihood, whereas KED resulted in an error reduction of 50% as compared to universal kriging. Where observations were sparse, the predictions were substantially improved by inclusion of the dispersion model output and by using available prior information. No major improvement was observed as compared to OLS, the cause presumably being that much good information is contained in the dispersion model output, so that no additional spatial residual random field is required to explain the data. In all, we conclude that reduction in the monitoring network could be compensated by modern geostatistical methods, and that a traditional simple statistical model is of an almost equal quality.

尖山河小流域土壤可蚀性K值空间变异研究

小流域尺度的土壤可蚀性 K 值空间分异特征及其与土地利用、植被类型、土壤理化性质等相关关系的研究,可以为小流域土壤侵蚀定量研究及综合治理决策提供科学依据。以云南省抚仙湖库区尖山河小流域为研究区,在大密度土壤采样和土壤理化性质测试分析的基础上,采用EPIC模型K值计算方法、地统计学方法和Kriging空间插值方法,计算分析了尖山河小流域土壤可蚀性K值的空间变异特征及土地利用/植被覆盖对K值的影响作用。结果表明,（1）研究区K值变化范围为0.1628-0.3836,均值为0.2824,中值为0.2885,均值与中值相近似,表明K值分布较均匀;变异系数为17.98%, K值存在中等程度的空间变异性。（2）不同土壤质地类型的K值存在一定差异,研究区主要土壤质地类型K值从大到小依次为粉壤〉壤土〉粘壤〉砂壤。（3）研究区以中可侵蚀性（0.25-0.30）、中高可侵蚀性（0.30-0.35）和中低可侵蚀性（0.20-0.25）土壤为主,面积分别为1797.88 hm2、1185.51 hm2和542.32 hm2,分别占小流域总面积的50.76%、33.47%和15.31%,而高可侵蚀性（〉0.35）土壤和较低可侵蚀性（0.15-0.20）土壤分布面积较少,无低可侵蚀性（〈0.15）土壤;在空间分布上,北部高山区土壤具有中低可侵蚀性,中、南部的低海拔区土壤具有中高可侵蚀性,中、南部其余区域土壤具有中可侵蚀性,这种空间分布与海拔存在较强的相关关系。（4）土地利用/植被覆盖对K值具有明显的影响作用,研究区主要土地利用/植被覆盖类型 K 值从小到大依次为林地〈灌草地〈荒草地〈旱平地〈园地〈旱坡地〈水田,需频繁松土、除草、耕作和扰动的土地利用/植被覆盖类型（园地、旱坡地、旱平地和水田）其K值较大,而无需耕作、扰动小的土地利用/植被覆盖类型（林地、荒草地和灌草地）其K值较小,这表?     

Suitability for human consumption and agriculture purposes of Sminja aquifer groundwater in Zaghouan (north-east of Tunisia) using GIS and geochemistry techniques

In Tunisia, the water resources are limited, partially renewable and unequally distributed between the wet north and the dry south of the country. The Sminja aquifer in Zaghouan city is located in north-east of Tunisia, between latitudes 36°38′ and 36°47′ and longitudes 9°95′ and 10°12′. This aquifer is used to satisfy the population needs for their domestic purposes and agricultural activities. Water analyses results are expressed by many methods, among which are geochemical methods combined with the geographic information system (GIS) (all schematic presentations of the diagram software (Piper, Riverside, Wilcox…), which can be used to assess the suitability of the Sminja aquifer groundwater for human consumption and irrigation purposes. A total of 23 wells were sampled in January 2013, and the concentrations of major cations (Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ and K⁺), major anions (Cl^?, SO₄ ^2? and HCO₃ ^?), electrical conductivity and total dissolved solids were analysed. In the Sminja groundwater, the order of the cations dominance was Na > Ca > Mg > K and that of the anions was Cl > HCO₃ > SO₄. All of the analysed samples of the study area exceed chemical values recommended by the World Health Organisation guidelines and Tunisian Standards (NT.09.14) for potability but with different percentages. The aquifer spatial distribution of saturation indices reveals that all groundwater samples are under-saturated with gypsum, halite and anhydrite and are over-saturated with respect to calcite and dolomite based on water quality evaluation parameters for irrigation purposes; here, 87 % of samples in Sminja aquifer groundwater are suitable, whereas 13 % are unsuitable for irrigation uses.     

Geochemical occurrences of arsenic and fluoride in bedrock groundwater: a case study in Geumsan County,Korea

Bedrock groundwaters in Geumsan County, Korea, were surveyed to investigate the distribution and geochemical behaviors of arsenic and fluoride, mobilized through geogenic processes. The concentrations were enriched up to 113 μg/L for arsenic and 7.54 mg/L for fluoride, and 16% of 150 samples exceeded World Health Organization drinking water guidelines for each element. Simple Ca-HCO₃ groundwater types and positive correlations with pH, Ca, SO₄, and HCO₃ were characteristics of high (>10 μg/L) As groundwaters. The oxidation reaction of sulfide minerals in metasedimentary rocks and locally mineralized zones seems to be ultimately responsible for the existence of arsenic in groundwater. Desorption process under high pH conditions may also control the arsenic mobility in the study area. High (>1.5 mg/L) F groundwaters were found in the Na-HCO₃ type and with greater depth. Fluoride seemed to be enriched by deep groundwater interaction with granitic rocks, and continuous supply to shallow Ca-HCO₃-type groundwater kept the concentration high. In the study area, drinking water management should include periodic As and F monitoring in groundwater.

     

Predicting the spatial distribution of mangroves in a South African estuary in response to sea level rise,substrate elevation change and a sea storm event

The spatial distribution of mangroves in the Mngazana Estuary under sea level rise induced by climate change, together with different substrate elevation change scenarios was predicted for 2020, 2050 and 2100. The present inundation frequency tolerance range was from 0.8 to 31.2 %, equivalent to substrate elevation thresholds of 1.1 and 1.7 m amsl. These thresholds were measured by field surveys and analysis of a gauge station situated near the mouth of the estuary. The predictions were based on the assumption that the inundation frequency tolerance range of mangrove stands remains constant in the future. Through the use of a digital elevation model an initial increase of 2.10 ha year^?1 was found in mangrove area between present and 2020 (from 122.6 to 143.6 ha). This was due to habitat becoming available that is currently too compacted for seedling establishment to occur. This compaction resulted from human and cattle traffic for grazing. Thereafter there would be a mean loss of 0.66 ha year^?1 from 2020 through 2100. Landward migration of mangroves would not take place due to the elevation limit of adjacent non-mangrove areas. In addition, the loss rate would increase to 1.01 ha year^?1 under insufficient sediment accretion, but would decrease to 0.18 ha year^?1 under thriving mangroves condition. The analysis of sea storm event in September 2008 showed that local water level increased by 28 cm and maximum affected area was 87.0 ha (about 71 % of mangrove stands). The inundation continued over 5 days. The results indicated that the combination impact of sea level rise, substrate elevation change and sea storm would possibly be a threat to tropical African estuaries with large flat intertidal areas and mangroves.     

Effects of human activities (raking,scraping, off-road vehicles) and natural resource protections on the spatial distribution of beach vegetation and related shoreline features in New Jersey

This study examined the relative impacts of different human activities and natural resource protections on the spatial distribution of beach vegetation and related habitat features (wrack, dune succession) in New Jersey (USA). Field surveys of the 209-km shoreline categorized beach segments according to vegetation cover classes, human activities, protection measures (exclosures, beach management plans, access restrictions) and ownership status (federal, state, etc.). A partition model (classification tree) was used to confirm the relative dominance hierarchy of human actions on the distribution of beach vegetation observed, and quantitative comparisons of dominant activities were conducted using vegetation data collected on 218 transects. The spatial extent of beach vegetation was found to be severely restricted by human activities when unconstrained by resource protections. The greatest reductions were found to result from mechanical raking (?99 %), scraping (?91 %) and all-year recreational ORV use (?86 %), which were dominant on nearly 70 % of the state shoreline. Beaches containing larger areas of vegetation (>5 m) were concentrated in areas with resource protections of various kinds (99 %), and on federal or other public parklands (68 %). Exclosures resulted in the greatest coverage of vegetation (48 % of beach surface) compared to public access restricted areas (41 %), beach management plans (31 %), government-only ORV use (31 %), and off-season recreational ORVs (15 %). Greater protection and recovery of beach vegetation and habitat is needed for species conservation and erosion protection in New Jersey and other coastal environments where these activities occur.