大山包黑颈鹤对旅游干扰的行为反应研究

利用警戒距离和惊飞距离两个指标来反映黑颈鹤对旅游干扰的耐受性。实验表明人数的不同对黑颈鹤的惊飞距离有所不同。研究还表明游客的干扰类型以喧哗为主,占总数的73.10%。噪音分贝对黑颈鹤的警戒距离有极显著影响(p=0.0000.05)。为了在提高游客旅游体验的同时,消除旅游活动对黑颈鹤的不利影响,建议最小接近区域面积=π×39.112=4802.92m2,该区域范围内限制游客进入,并在外围设立障碍物。     

The effect of flower-like and non-flower-like visual properties on choice of unrewarding patterns by bumblebees

How do distinct visual stimuli help bumblebees discover flowers before they have experienced any reward outside of their nest? Two visual floral properties, type of a pattern (concentric vs radial) and its position on unrewarding artificial flowers (central vs peripheral on corolla), were manipulated in two experiments. Both visual properties showed significant effects on floral choice. When pitted against each other, pattern was more important than position. Experiment 1 shows a significant effect of concentric pattern position, and experiment 2 shows a significant preference towards radial patterns regardless of their position. These results show that the presence of markings at the center of a flower are not so important as the presence of markings that will direct bees there.     

The interaction of temperature and sucrose concentration on foraging preferences in bumblebees

Several authors have found that flowers that are warmer than their surrounding environment have an advantage in attracting pollinators. Bumblebees will forage preferentially on warmer flowers, even if equal nutritional reward is available in cooler flowers. This raises the question of whether warmth and sucrose concentration are processed independently by bees, or whether sweetness detectors respond to higher sugar concentration as well as higher temperature. We find that bumblebees can use lower temperature as a cue to higher sucrose reward, showing that bees appear to process the two parameters strictly independently. Moreover, we demonstrate that sucrose concentration takes precedence over warmth, so that when there is a difference in sucrose concentration, bees will typically choose the sweeter feeder, even if the less sweet feeder is several degrees warmer.     

Integrating mitigation and adaptation as responses to climate change: a synthesis

Integrating mitigation and adaptation (M&A) is a practical reality for climate change response policy, despite a range of conceptual and methodological challenges. Based on the papers in this special issue, some preliminary findings about appropriate integrated portfolios are offered, along with several implications for climate policy.     

The vulnerability context of a savanna area in Mozambique: household drought coping strategies and responses to economic change

In this paper, we investigate the ways in which climate stressors and economic changes related to liberalisation alter the local vulnerability context. Household and key informant data from two villages in Mozambique are analysed. First, we explore how changes such as increased market integration, altered systems of agricultural support, land tenure change and privatisation of agro-industries may affect factors important for response capacity, including access to local natural resources, employment opportunities, and household labour and capital. Next, we investigate how people related to the market while coping with the 2002–2003 drought. The study reveals that there had been an increase in informal trade and casual employment opportunities; however, market relations were very unfavourable and as the drought intensified, smallholders were locked into activities that barely secured economic survival and which sometimes endangered long-term response capacity. Only a few large-scale farmers had the capital and skills necessary to negotiate a good market position in urban markets, thus securing future incomes. Inequality, social sustainability, vulnerability and natural resource use are all closely linked in the savannas. Hence, both climate change adaptation policies and sustainability measures need to target vulnerability context and the social and environmental stressors shaping it.     

长江黄河源区冰川变化及其对河川径流的影响

以位于青藏高原长江源头的各拉丹冬地区和黄河源区的阿尼玛卿山地区冰川为例,利用两期遥感影像资料(长江源为1969年和2000年,黄河源为1966年和2000年),在地理信息系统技术的支持下分析研究区典型冰川作用区小冰期(LIA)、1969年(1966年)和2000年的冰川范围变化、冰川进退情况,在此基础上,运用由点到面的研究方法,外推整个长江和黄河源区近几十年来的冰川变化情况,并以沱沱河流域为例,分析了冰川变化对河川径流的影响。结果表明,长江源各拉丹冬地区1969～2000年冰川总面积减少了1.7%,而黄河源阿尼玛卿山地区冰川面积减少是长江源区的10倍,同期,长江源区冰川末端的最大退缩速率为每年41.5m,而黄河源区每年为57.4m,与黄河源区相比,长江源区冰川退缩速度不是太大,基本上处于稳定状态,且有前进冰川存在。20世纪60年代以来,江河源区冰川虽呈长期退缩的总趋势,但也出现过明显的前进,长江源区在1969年～1995年,黄河源区在1966年至1981年,大多数冰川处于前进状态或稳定。长江源区冰川转入退缩阶段的时间要比黄河源区晚约10a左右。冰川退缩使长江源区和黄河源区年均各自损失冰川水资源约0.7×108m³。由于长江源区冰川变化幅度小,虽冰川退缩使冰川融水径流量有所增加,但对径流的影响程度相对较小。     

The fiscal implications of climate change and policy responses

This paper is concerned with the implications of climate change, and government policies to address it, for countries’ fiscal systems at the national level. Given the uncertainties associated with climate change and countries’ responses to it, the article can do no more than review and suggest some of the major issues of likely importance for fiscal sustainability and how they might be addressed. First the paper defines fiscal sustainability and addresses some general issues related to countries’ attempts to adapt to or mitigate climate change. It then works through a number of more specific issues, discussing policies such as the implementation of environmental taxes or other instruments for the mitigation of climate change. The assessment of the impacts of such policies on fiscal sustainability requires the application of sophisticated economic models, and the paper briefly explores the relative advantages of different modeling approaches in relation to the assessment of fiscal sustainability under policies to mitigate climate change. The major research need identified by the paper is for the development of macroeconomic models that will enable countries identify the wider effects of environmental taxes and help them undertake multi-year budgeting processes.     

成都一次霾过程中颗粒物消光作用的垂直变化

基于2017年1月4~7日成都地区一次重霾过程中,颗粒物粒径谱的垂直加密观测和激光雷达同步观测数据,利用Mie散射理论计算颗粒物消光系数并与激光雷达反演结果对比,计算了不同粒径谱颗粒物消光系数以及消光贡献率.分析表明：重霾期间,在不同边界层高度上颗粒物消光系数表现为PM₁ > PM_2.5~10 > PM_1~2.5 > PM _{> 10},其中PM₁的消光贡献率整体上维持在49.5%~69.4%,是本次重霾过程中影响颗粒物消光系数大小的主要因子.在大气边界层内,不同粒径谱颗粒物消光作用呈现出显著垂直变化和昼夜差异,白天在600m以下和700~1100m之间颗粒物消光系数出现高值区;夜间颗粒物消光系数整体上随高度呈现出明显递减趋势,在1100m处出现高值.此外,夜间在200m以下颗粒物消光系数明显大于白天,且PM_>1的消光贡献率也明显大于白天.整体上,PM₁消光贡献率随高度递增,而PM_>1消光贡献率随高度递减.     

碳源对解体后好氧颗粒活性恢复的影响

在序批式反应器(SBR)中,分别以葡萄糖,葡萄糖-乙酸钠混合碳源,乙酸钠为碳源,对解体后的好氧颗粒污泥进行为期30天的活性恢复.研究结果表明:活性恢复过程中,好氧颗粒对COD和NH3-N的去除几乎不受碳源的影响,10d后好氧颗粒污泥对COD和NH3-N的去除活性完全恢复.碳源会较大地影响好氧颗粒污泥的物理特征及对TN,TP的去除,采用乙酸钠进行活性恢复后的好氧颗粒脱氮除磷效果最好,20d后对TN和TP的去除率可从解体时的45%和42%恢复到74%和81%;而采用混合碳源进行活性恢复后的好氧颗粒的COD比降解速率最大,达到10.74kgCOD/(kgMLSS×d),恢复至颗粒解体前的112%;以乙酸钠为碳源可使好氧颗粒硝化,反硝化能力得到较好的恢复,NH3-N和TN的比降解速率分别达到0.335kgNH3-N/(kgMLSS×d)和0.272kgTN/(kgMLSS×d),分别恢复至颗粒解体前的97%和101%.     

Frequent summer nuptial flights of ants provide a primary food source for bats

In many ant species, nuptial flight tends to be short in time and assumed to be synchronous across a large area. Here, we report that, in the upper Jordan Valley, northern Israel, massive nuptial flights of Carpenter ants (Camponotus sp.) occur frequently throughout the summer, and their alates form up to 90% of the diet of the greater mouse-tailed bat (Rhinopoma microphyllum) during this period. This fat and protein-rich diet enables female bats to lactate during summer, and the large amount of fat that both sexes accumulate may serve as an energy source for their following winter hibernation and posthibernation mating in early spring (March–April). We suggest that the annual movement of these bats to the Mediterranean region of Israel may have evolved in order to enable them to exploit the extremely nutritious forms of ant alates when the bats’ energetic demands are highest.     

An assessment of potential responses of Melaleuca genus to global climate change

The genus Melaleuca consists of around 260 species covering over eight million hectares (including native and introduced species) and distributed mostly in Australia, but also occurring in South-East Asia, the Southern United States and the Caribbean. Melaleuca populations predominantly occur in wetland or/and coastal ecosystems where they have been significantly affected by climate change. This paper assesses the potential responses of the Melaleuca genus to climate change, based on the synthesis of worldwide published data. The main findings include: (i) that the Melaleuca genus has a rich species diversity, and significant phenotypic diversity in a variety of ecosystems; (ii) they demonstrate significant local adaptation to harsh conditions; and (iii) the fossil records and taxon biology indicate the evolution of the Melaleuca genus began around 38 million years ago and they have survived several significant climatic alterations, particularly a shift towards cooler and drier climates that has occurred over this period. These findings show that the Melaleuca genus is highly resilient and adaptable and based on this, this paper argues that Melaleuca can adapt to climate change through Wright’s ‘migrational adaptation’, and can be managed to achieve sustainable benefits.     

油酸钠对餐厨垃圾两相厌氧发酵中利用乙酸产甲烷过程的影响

为了研究餐厨垃圾油脂中含有的长链脂肪酸(主要是油酸)对两相厌氧发酵中利用乙酸产甲烷过程的影响,采用中温(35±1)℃批式发酵,以浓度为10 g·L~(-1)的餐厨垃圾厌氧发酵产甲烷相出水为接种液,以乙酸为底物,考察了添加不同浓度油酸钠对累积甲烷产量、产甲烷古菌数量以及发酵过程中乙酸代谢和氢气分压的影响.结果表明:1产甲烷延滞期随油酸钠浓度增加而延长.2油酸钠浓度低于6.0 g·L~(-1)的处理组经过延滞期后乙酸代谢恢复正常,可以完全被转化为甲烷,且部分油酸钠也可被转化为甲烷;油酸钠浓度高于8.0 g·L~(-1)的处理组乙酸代谢受到严重抑制,只有少量甲烷生成;油酸钠生成中间代谢产物,且甲烷转化率为0.3油酸钠对厌氧发酵中产甲烷古菌有严重的抑制作用,产甲烷古菌数量大幅度减少是乙酸代谢过程受到抑制的主要原因.4油酸钠的添加量超过6.0 g·L~(-1)时,在发酵初期会引起产甲烷相中氢分压的升高,也证实了油酸钠对厌氧发酵的抑制作用.     

Coping with change: responses of the Uzbek water management regime to socio-economic transition and global change

Water management in Uzbekistan (Central Asia) is facing tremendous challenges. They are rooted in past and present environmental degradation, the socio-economic transition after the breakup of the Soviet Union, and the impacts of climate change. The Uzbek government has initiated reforms in the agricultural and water sectors to steer the socio-economic transition and address the threats of increasing water scarcity and decreasing agricultural productivity. However, despite the urgency of the problems and massive international assistance changes to the water management regime have only been minimal so far. In this paper we identify major structural barriers for adaptation of the water management regime through an analysis of two recent policy processes. Both processes address pressing water management issues such as “coping with extreme events” and “providing water for ecosystems”. They were analyzed using the Management and Transition Framework as well as a group model building exercises with stakeholders on the national, regional and local levels. The analyses reveal a lack of vertical integration across administrative levels of the formal system and a still prevailing strong centralization of water management. Moreover the water management regime is strongly influenced by informal institutions that shape the outcomes of policy processes. The interactions guided by informal institutions provide an informal link between different administrative levels of the regime. However, those informal networks and the social capital embedded in them rather prevent needed changes. The resulting combination of top down institutional change initiated by socio-economic transition and bottom-up consolidation of the existing status quo via informal processes and networks prevents social learning. It also slows down an adaptation process that potentially could lead to a transition towards a more adaptive regime.     

养殖户气候适应性行为对提高养殖业生产效率的影响

气候变化给当前中国农业生产转型带来严峻挑战,从效率视角分析农户适应气候变化行为具有重要意义。本文探讨养殖户气候适应性行为与养殖业生产效率之间的逻辑关系,并基于中国五省的微观调查数据,采用倾向得分匹配方法与选择纠偏随机前沿生产函数模型（Selectivity-corrected Stochastic Production Frontier model）相结合的实证思路,分析养殖户气候适应性行为对养殖业生产效率的影响。研究表明：（1）养殖户气候适应性行为能够提高养殖业生产效率,纠正可观测因素与不可观测因素造成的选择性偏差后,适应组养殖户平均养殖业生产效率为0.618,未适应组养殖户的平均养殖业生产效率为0.551。（2）若未考虑选择性偏差,养殖户适应性行为对养殖业生产效率的影响将会错估。研究成果可为推进政府制定农户适应气候变化政策与推动农业生产转型提供有力支持。     

中国粮食安全与耕地资源变化的相关分析

实现国家粮食安全的最基本条件是保证粮食基本自给,而耕地资源是粮食自给能力的基础。21世纪中国人口将继续增长,人均粮食消费水平将有所提高,粮食需求压力日益增大;工业化、城市化进程加快和经济高速发展将使原本稀缺的耕地资源不可逆转地部分流向非农化利用,人地矛盾将更趋尖锐。论文分析了耕地数量变化及质量状况与粮食生产的相关关系,结论表明,中国21世纪粮食安全战略中必须高度重视耕地的数量保持和质量改善。     

东北多年冻土区植被NDVI变化及其对气候变化和土地覆被变化的响应

利用1982~2006年的NOAA AVHRR-GIMMS和MODIS 2种数据集的归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据对东北多年冻土区植被NDVI年际动态和空间差异进行分析,并结合气象数据和土地利用/覆被数据分析了植被NDVI对气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化的响应.研究表明,东北多年冻土区植被NDVI值较高,且空间差异明显;森林为该区主要植被类型,NDVI值较高,主要分布于大小兴安岭和伊春地区;草地集中分布于西南部, NDVI值相对较低.东北多年冻土区过去25a间植被生长的变化趋势为:伴随着气温的显著升高和降水量减少,植被NDVI显著下降.较气温而言,降水量是影响植被NDVI的主要因子(r = 0.77, P < 0.01).在气候变化和人类活动的双重作用下,东北多年冻土区植被NDVI在1982~2006年间表现为4个阶段:1982~1990年,植被NDVI虽有小幅波动,但整体上呈持续增加的趋势;1990~1993年,植被NDVI呈迅速下降趋势; 1993~1997年,植被NDVI呈现回升态势,表现出缓慢上升的趋势;1998~2006年,植被NDVI呈现总体下降趋势.不同植被类型表现出不同的NDVI年际变化规律,尤以草地NDVI值波动最大.植被NDVI变化空间异质性显著.气候变化和多年冻土退化影响了东北多年冻土区植被NDVI动态.年均气温升高和年降水量降低影响了植被的生长.从像元尺度来看,研究区植被NDVI与气温和降水均具有较显著的相关性.研究区土地利用/覆被变化的分析结果表明,不同的土地利用类型间的转变对植被NDVI的大小和空间分布产生了重要影响.     

Adaptation strategies to combat climate change effect on rice and mustard in Eastern India

The negative impact of climate change on crop production is alarming as the demand for food is expected to increase in coming years, at a rate of about 2 percent a year. Wet season rice (Oryza sativa) followed by mustard (Brassica juncea) is one of the prominent cropping sequences in Eastern India. Descreases in their productivity due to climate change will not only hamper the regional food security but also affect the global economy. Considering the fact, the present study aims to assess the impact of climate change on productivity of wet-season rice and mustard and to evaluate the effectiveness of agronomic adjustment as adaptation options. Crop growth simulation model (CGSM) is a very effective tool to predict the growth and yield of a crop. One CGSM, namely InfoCrop (Generic Crop Model), was calibrated and validated for the said crops for West Bengal State, Eastern India. After validation, the model was used to predict the yield under elevated thermal condition (1 and 3 °C rise over normal temperature). Moreover, the future weather situation as predicted by PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) model was used as weather input of the CGSM and the yield was predicted for ten selected locations of West Bengal for the year 2025 and 2050. It was observed that the average yield reduction of the wet-season rice would be in the tune of about 20.0 % for 2025 and 27.8 % for 2050. The mustard yield of West Bengal may be reduced by 20.0 to 33.9 % for the year 2025 and up to 40 % for 2050. It was concluded that the negative impact of climate change on mustard grown in winter season will be more pronounced compared to wet-season rice. Adjustment of sowing time will be the simplest and effective adaptation option for both rice and mustard. Increased rate of nutrient application can sustain the rice yield under future climate. The older seedling at the time of transplanting of wet-season rice and increased seed rate of mustard were proved less effective.