The bangladesh cyclone of 1991: why so many people died

Living with natural disasters has become a way of life in Bangladesh. On the night of 29 April 1991 a severe cyclonic storm, accompanied by tidal surges up to 30 feet high, battered the coastal areas of Bangladesh for 3–4 hours. Thousands of people were killed and property worth billions of dollars was destroyed. After the cyclone, several studies, using epidemiological and anthropological methods, looked at the impact of the cyclone. It was estimated that over 67,000 people lost their lives. Women, children and the elderly were much more at risk and so were those from the socio-economically disadvantaged section of the population. Cyclone shelters were few in relation to need but proved very helpful in saving lives. At least 20 per cent more deaths would have occurred in the absence of these shelters. The article documents impressive improvements in Bangladesh's-ability to cope and makes recommendations for the future.     

The reconstruction of darwin after cyclone tracy

Learning from any process or past experience is one of the wing graces of mankind. In this context, the rebuilding of Darwin had been to ensure that the catastrophic events, wrought by nature, will not be repeated by bringing total devistation of a city and a way of life.
The total engineered city is a unique product of the "rethink" process brought about by the rebuilding of Darwin.
The future economic viability of this cyclone resistant city is of paramount importance, but the lessons to be learnt also include a social and psychological value that the people of any city have for their existing infrastructure, and life style. The economic well being of any population development goes hand in hand with the happiness and contentment that the settled population work towards.
The following is an assessment of the background, problems and achievements in which the Commonwealth Department of Construction played a major role.
The Author, during the whole of the rebuilding programme in Darwin, occupied the position of Associate Director in charge of a multidiscipline cell within the Departpent of Construction, whose sole purpose was to handle the majority of the reconsiruction work for the Darwin Reconstruction Commission.     

The 1970 Bhola cyclone,nationalist politics,and the subsistence crisis contract in Bangladesh

The devastating Bhola cyclone in November 1970 is credited with having triggered the political events that led to the division of Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. A callous response to the disaster by the Pakistani regime resulted in a landslide electoral victory for Bengali nationalists, followed by a bitter and bloody civil war. Yet, despite its political momentousness, the Bhola cyclone has been the subject of little political analysis. This paper examines the events, arguing that its extraordinary political significance put disaster management on the nationalist agenda; the famine of 1974 confirmed its centrality, producing a social contract to protect the population against disasters and subsistence crises on which the country's acclaimed resilience to the effects of climate change rests. The Bhola cyclone also drew international attention to this neglected, little‐known region, and in general can be seen as foundational for the subsequent developmental achievements of Bangladesh.     

南半球气候变暖对西北太平洋热带气旋的影响

在分析南半球地面气温序列和西北太平洋热带气旋序列的基础上，讨论了南半球气候变暖对西北太平洋上热带气旋的影响和可能的机制。结果表明，随着南半球气候变暖，西北太平洋上热带气旋的频数减少，强度减弱；同时，随着南半球气候变暖，西北太平洋上强台风的频数将减少，最大中心风速将减弱。一种可能的机制是由于从南半球侵入西北太平洋的冷空气随着南半球气候的变暖而减弱。     

The disaster warning process: A study of the 1981 Gujarat cyclone

This paper reports on the channels through which warning of the impending disastrous cyclone of October–November 1981 was received and disseminated in the districts and villages of Gujarat in Northwest India. The process is slow and laborious, and efforts are in hand to improve the speed and efficiency of warning methods. Some of the problems likely to be encountered are discussed.     

Effects of a tropical cyclone on the drinking-water quality of a remote Pacific island

The effect of a cyclone (Ami, January 2003) on drinking-water quality on the island of Vanua Levu, Fiji was investigated. Following the cyclone nearly three-quarters of the samples analysed did not conform to World Health Organisation (WHO) guideline values for safe drinking-water in terms of chlorine residual, total and faecal coliforms, and turbidity. Turbidity and total coliform levels significantly increased (up 56 and 62 per cent, respectively) from pre-cyclone levels, which was likely due to the large amounts of silt and debris entering water-supply sources during the cyclone. The utility found it difficult to maintain a reliable supply of treated water in the aftermath of the disaster. Communities were unaware they were drinking water that had not been adequately treated. Circumstances permitted this cyclone to be used as a case study to assess whether a simple paper-strip water-quality test (the hydrogen sulphide, H(2)S) kit could be distributed and used for community-based monitoring following such a disaster event to better protect public health. The H(2)S test results correlated well with faecal and total coliform results as found in previous studies. A small percentage of samples (about 10 per cent) tested positive for faecal and total coliforms but did not test positive in the H(2)S test. It was concluded that the H(2)S test would be well suited to wider use, especially in the absence of water-quality monitoring capabilities for outer island groups as it is inexpensive and easy to use, thus enabling communities and community health workers with minimal training to test their own water supplies without outside assistance. The importance of public education before and after natural disasters is also discussed.     

Vulnerability to tropical cyclones: evidence from the april 1991 cyclone in coastal bangladesh

In this article we report the results of a survey conducted in two coastal communities of Bangladesh less than two weeks after they were hit by the severe cyclone of April 29, 1991. It was found that almost all of the surveyed heads of households had received early warnings of the cyclone. Nevertheless, a majority of the respondents did not leave their homes to seek shelter. The two most common reasons given for this passive reaction were (i) fear of burglary and (ii) disbelief of the warnings. Thus, it appears that the existing system of early warnings is not having its intended effect and that it, and related disaster mitigation policies, need to be revised. Some suggestions are made as to what could be done.     

新型低氮旋流燃烧器在马莲台发电厂中的应用

为了达到降低发电厂NOx排放物、改善生态环境的目的,针对采用DDR旋流燃烧器产生NOx较高的问题,马莲台发电厂在脱硝改造工程中大胆采用新型低氮燃烧器与SCR烟气脱硝相结合的技术,取得了良好效果。结果表明:燃烧器改造后锅炉运行各项指标正常,锅炉效率略有提高,NOx排放浓度明显减少,由原来的679.85 mg/Nm³降为290 mg/Nm³,取得了巨大的社会效益和经济效益。     

The influence of caste,class and gender in surviving multiple disasters: A case study from Orissa,India

Sociological and anthropological studies in India reveal that caste, class and gender in everyday life are both rigid and dynamic, but little is known about how they influence the survival mechanisms of women during ‘multiple disasters’, nor about how women negotiate with these structural mores to meet their cultural and biological needs. This is explored through the experiences of 12 women-headed households from different social castes in Orissa, India. Multiple disasters or disasters that occur in ‘one specific place’ (such as floods, cyclone and drought) are regular events in coastal parts of the state of Orissa. The super-cyclone of 1999, two floods of 2001 and 2003 and drought of 2000 and 2002 form the case study. Participant observation, in-depth interviews and documentary evidence complement the fieldwork. The findings suggest a complex interplay of caste, class and gender in surviving the multiple disasters including structural mutability under the purview of social organization. In doing so, women demonstrated their individual and collective agencies in order to meet their cultural and biological needs under severe crisis. This research stresses that gender and disaster studies must include a consideration of caste and class for effective disaster management and social vulnerability reduction.     

热带气旋灾害等级预评估方法初探

利用1982-2009年期间48个影响青田县的热带气旋全县灾情记录,选用相应过程全县经济损失占当年GDP的比例和死亡人数作为衡量热带气旋影响程度的主要因子,计算了每个历史过程的灾情指数;再以灾情指数为样本,以对应过程的全县过程平均雨量、过程最大雨量、日最大雨量、最大风速为因子,通过多元线性回归建立了回归方程,为热带气旋影响灾害预评估提供一种参考依据。     

Factors affecting the evacuation decisions of coastal households during Cyclone Aila in Bangladesh

Despite sincere efforts by concerned agencies and recent improvements in hazard warnings, thousands of at-risk people did not evacuate during Aila, a category-I tropical cyclone that struck southwestern coastal Bangladesh in 2009. This study investigated the responses of the people affected by Aila to cyclone warnings and associated evacuation orders, and unveiled behavioural aspects that explain why they did or did not comply with the evacuation orders. Utilising the primary data collected from 420 households living in the severely affected coastal sub-district Koyra, located in Khulna District, this study found that although more than 97% of the households had received cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Aila's landfall, only around 26% had evacuated. We also examined this study's empirical findings for factors that had dissuaded people from complying with the evacuation orders. Relevant test statistics along with results from principal component analysis suggested that the significant and systematic absenteeism of households from disaster preparedness training appears to be one of the key determinants that affected their evacuation decisions, along with factors related to warning messages, the attributes of cyclone shelters, risk perception, and socioeconomic aspects. A number of recommendations are also presented in this study for people at risk to improve their evacuation rates in future emergencies, not only to save their own lives but also to save their livestock.     

珠江三角洲地区热带气旋逐时雨量分布特征

利用广东省自动观测站、常规地面站的逐时降水量资料,对1999-2002年登陆珠江三角洲地区的热带气旋进行了动态合成等分析.结果表明,登陆前后广东的逐时雨量和热带气旋本身的逐时雨量都发生了变化;热带气旋降水具有明显的不对称性,降水量级越强,分布不对称性越明显;随着降水量级的减弱,最大出现概率圈有外移的趋势;极强和强等级时雨量的落区与热带气旋移动方向有关.     

1951-2006年西北太平洋热带气旋活动时空特征

西北太平洋是全球热带气旋(TC)发生次数最多、强度最大的区域之一,其TC研究受到该区域学者的广泛关注。基于日本气象厅(JMA)东京台风中心西北太平洋TC最佳路径数据资料,分析了该区域1951-2006年的TC频数和强度时空分布特征。首先,统计和分析了56年间(1951-2006年)TC的年际和年内变化,并通过建立1°×1°网格计算了落在每个网格内的TC次数,分析了多年TC的空间分布格局;其次,根据国际气象组织按照风速划分TC等级的标准,统计和分析了56年间不同强度TC的年际和年内特征,通过风速强度指数计算,获取了1°×1°网格单元区域内遭受TC影响的强度等级。结果显示,区域频数和强度时空分布规律较好地反映了该区域的TC影响特征,进而为区域台风灾害预报以及台风灾害风险评估提供了支持。     

Cyclone disaster vulnerability and response experiences in coastal Bangladesh

For generations, cyclones and tidal surges have frequently devastated lives and property in coastal and island Bangladesh. This study explores vulnerability to cyclone hazards using first‐hand coping recollections from prior to, during and after these events. Qualitative field data suggest that, beyond extreme cyclone forces, localised vulnerability is defined in terms of response processes, infrastructure, socially uneven exposure, settlement development patterns, and livelihoods. Prior to cyclones, religious activities increase and people try to save food and valuable possessions. Those in dispersed settlements who fail to reach cyclone shelters take refuge in thatched‐roof houses and big‐branch trees. However, women and children are affected more despite the modification of traditional hierarchies during cyclone periods. Instinctive survival strategies and intra‐community cooperation improve coping post cyclone. This study recommends that disaster reduction programmes encourage cyclone mitigation while being aware of localised realities, endogenous risk analyses, and coping and adaptation of affected communities (as active survivors rather than helpless victims).     

Long‐term effects of Hurricane Katrina on the psychological well‐being of evacuees

Hurricane Katrina of August 2005 forced more than one million people to evacuate the Gulf Coast of the United States. This study examines the psychological health and well‐being of a subset of evacuees to determine the prevalence of ongoing mental health problems. Interviews were conducted with 101 adults who evacuated to Louisville, Kentucky, and were living in the state at the one‐year anniversary of the event or had recently returned to the Gulf Coast. The psychological health and well‐being of respondents was evaluated using several well‐validated measures. More than one‐half met the criteria for post‐traumatic stress disorder and a majority were suffering from depression and anxiety. The mean quality of life score was 0.6 on a scale from 0–1, suggesting that adaptation and return to pre‐hurricane well‐being had not occurred 12 months after the storm. The potential for long‐term psychological damage exists in this sample of Hurricane Katrina evacuees. Results suggest other evacuees may also be at heightened risk.     

Foreignness as a constraint on learning: The impact of migrants on disaster resilience in small islands

Knowledge about natural hazard management has increased significantly since Gilbert White's seminal research in 1945, yet people are still badly affected by natural hazards. A key question remains in natural hazards research: why, when all the conditions for effective disaster risk reduction are in place, do some people not take action to reduce their risk of harm? Through a questionnaire-based study we investigated the motivating factors that led residents of the Cayman Islands to prepare for annual tropical cyclones (hurricanes). Factors that increase the likelihood of individuals preparing for hurricanes are: previous experience of major storms, having linking networks and ties, having a child under the age of 15 in the home, and residency status—expatriate residents are less likely to prepare. Factors that appear to prevent adaptive behaviour include: living close to or adjacent to the coast, recent migration to the islands, and living in rented accommodation. The findings of the survey confirm that even within societies that are well prepared for tropical cyclones, there are still sub-groups who do not engage with the preparedness process. In the case of the Cayman Islands, new migrants are the most vulnerable to tropical cyclones as they tend to fall into the demographic groups least likely to prepare for cyclones, live in locations with high levels of exposure to cyclone impacts, and interact mostly with other expatriates with no previous experience of cyclone impacts. As climate change promises to bring an increasing intensity of tropical cyclones, these findings have relevance for all islands which draw on migrant workers to support economic growth.     

Cyclone shelters and their locational suitability: an empirical analysis from coastal Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the poorest and the most disaster‐prone countries in Asia; it is important, therefore, to know how its disaster reduction strategies are organised and planned. Cyclone shelters comprise a widely acceptable form of infrastructural support for disaster management in Bangladesh. This paper attempts to analyse empirically their use during cyclones in a sample study area along the southwest coastal belt of the country. It shows how the location of a cyclone shelter can determine the social power structure in coastal Bangladesh. The results reveal that the establishment of cyclone shelters in the studied communities is determined by neither a right‐based nor a demand‐based planning approach; rather, their creation is dependent on the socio‐political affluence of local‐level decision‐makers. The paper goes on to demonstrate that socially vulnerable households (defined, for example, by income or housing conditions) are afforded disproportionately less access to cyclone shelters as compared to less socially vulnerable households.     

Civil society and the state: Turkey after the earthquake

On 17 August 1999 Turkey was hit by a massive earthquake. Over 17,000 lives were lost and there was extensive damage to Turkey's heartland. This paper examines how various public and private institutions, including state and civil society institutions such as NGOs and the media responded to the needs of earthquake survivors. It documents the extensive involvement of NGOs in the relief efforts immediately after the disaster and examines the impact of such participation on state-civil society relations in the country. The data show that state response to the disaster went through several phases from a period of ineptitude to effective management. The paper credits the media and the NGOs for acting as advocates for survivors and forcing changes at the state level. The paper argues that an ideal response system, which fully addresses the needs of victims, can only be based on state-civil society relations that are both collaborative and adversarial.     

辽宁地区一次暴雨过程成因的位涡诊断分析

2003年8月5—6日，受东移北上的华北气旋的影响，辽宁省大部分地区出现暴雨天气，其中彰武、本溪等地出现局地大暴雨。应用MM5非静力中尺度模式对这次暴雨过程进行了数值模拟，在模拟结果的基础上，利用位涡分析方法对这次过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明，在对流层低层有正位涡扰动存在，对强对流天气具有触发作用；对流层中低层的相对高位涡中心和对流层高层的较强低位涡中心相配合，有利于形成低层辐合与高层辐散，使得气旋得以维持和发展，从而为对流性降水提供了必要条件；在对流层中低层，出现高位涡中心地区可能形成暴雨中心。     

The Ethiopian crisis of 1999-2000: lessons learned,questions unanswered

During 1999-2000, Ethiopia was brought to the edge of a major disaster, with some 10 million people estimated to be in need offood assistance at the height of the crisis. A repeat of the catastrophic famine of 1984-5 was avoided, but the numbers of people affected, the loss of life and the destruction of livelihoods made this one of the most serious crises in the Horn of Africa in the past 15 years. The humanitarian community has been slow to recognise the lessons of 1999-2000, and there have been surprisingly few attempts to conduct a serious, post-event evaluation of the overall crisis and response. The label famine averted' seems to summarise the crisis to the satisfaction of most parties involved. This paper reviews the crisis, the events that led up to it and the response effort. It examines thefactors that contributed to making this crisis so serious, in order to draw conclusions and note issues that are relevant to current thinking about disaster preparedness and response - in Ethiopia and elsewhere. Some of the lessons learned from the 1999-2000 crisis are not new. However, the veryfact that mistakes have been repeated should be a lesson to the humanitarian community.