The Quantitative Incidence Function Model and Persistence of an Endangered Butterfly Metapopulation

The incidence function model is derived from a linear first-order Markov chain of the presence or absence of a species in a habitat patch. The model can be parameterized with "snapshot" presence/absence data from a patch network. Using the estimated parameter values the Markov chain can be iterated in the same or in some other patch network to generate quantitative predictions about transient metapopulation dynamics and the stochastic steady state. We tested the ability of the incidence function model to predict patch occupancy using extensive data on an endangered butterfly, the Glanville fritillary ( Melitaea cinxia ) Parameter values were estimated with data collected from a 50-patch network in 1991. In 1993 we surveyed the entire geographic range of the species in Finland, within an area of 50 × 70 km², with 1502 habitat patches (dry meadows) of which 536 were occupied. Model predictions were generated for the 1502 patches and were compared with the observed pattern of occupancy in 1993. The model predicted patch occupancy well in more than half of the study area, but prediction was poor for one quarter of the area, probably because of regional variation in habitat quality and because metapopulations may have been perturbed away from the steady state. The incidence function model provides a practical tool for making quantitative predictions about metapopulation dynamics of species living in fragmented landscapes.     

Developing Metapopulation Connectivity Criteria from Genetic and Habitat Data to Recover the Endangered Mexican Wolf

Restoring connectivity between fragmented populations is an important tool for alleviating genetic threats to endangered species. Yet recovery plans typically lack quantitative criteria for ensuring such population connectivity. We demonstrate how models that integrate habitat, genetic, and demographic data can be used to develop connectivity criteria for the endangered Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi), which is currently being restored to the wild from a captive population descended from 7 founders. We used population viability analysis that incorporated pedigree data to evaluate the relation between connectivity and persistence for a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation of 3 populations of equal size. Decreasing dispersal rates greatly increased extinction risk for small populations (<150–200), especially as dispersal rates dropped below 0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation. We compared observed migration rates in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) wolf metapopulation to 2 habitat‐based effective distance metrics, least‐cost and resistance distance. We then used effective distance between potential primary core populations in a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation to evaluate potential dispersal rates. Although potential connectivity was lower in the Mexican wolf versus the NRM wolf metapopulation, a connectivity rate of >0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation may be achievable via natural dispersal under current landscape conditions. When sufficient data are available, these methods allow planners to move beyond general aspirational connectivity goals or rules of thumb to develop objective and measurable connectivity criteria that more effectively support species recovery. The shift from simple connectivity rules of thumb to species‐specific analyses parallels the previous shift from general minimum‐viable‐population thresholds to detailed viability modeling in endangered species recovery planning. Desarrollo de Criterios de Conectividad Metapoblacional a Partir de Datos Genéticos y de Hábitat para Recuperar al Lobo Mexicano en Peligro de Extinción     

Human Impacts on Drainages of the Mesa Central, Mexico, and Its Genetic Effects on an Endangered Fish, Zoogoneticus quitzeoensis

Abstract:  The Mesa Central of Mexico is of special conservation interest due to its high richness of freshwater fish species, of which the goodeines are one of the most representative groups. Through an integrated approach, we determined conservation priorities for goodeine populations. We based our recommendations on the genetic diversity (variation in five microsatellite DNA loci) in 10 populations of Zoogoneticus quitzeoensis and on an analysis of ecological (e.g., presence of exotic species), social (e.g., political situation), and environmental (e.g., pollution) information for 52 historical occurrence points for species in the genus Zoogoneticus . Patterns of genetic erosion and genetic diversity indices were closely associated with human impact. Recent bottleneck events were most evident in the populations from remnants of the lakes drained at the beginning of the twentieth century. We identified seven operational conservation units (OCUs), all of which should be conserved because they contain unique portions of the total variation of the species. Special attention needs to be given to increase genetic variability, recover population sizes, and reestablish contact among populations within OCUs. It is imperative to create an integrative and effective approach for the recovery and conservation of the freshwater fish diversity of Central Mexico that is based on social and natural sciences.     

Metapopulation dynamics of a perennial plant, Succisa pratensis, in an agricultural landscape

Most metapopulation models neglect the local dynamics, and systems characterized by slow population turnover, time lags and non-equilibrium, are only rarely examined within a metapopulation context. In this study we used a realistic, spatially explicit, dynamic metapopulation model of a long-lived grassland plant, Succisa pratensis, to examine the relative importance of local population dynamics, and short and long-distance dispersal of seeds.     

Indicator Taxa, Rapid Biodiversity Assessment, and Nestedness in an Endangered Ecosystem

Abstract: To prioritize areas for conservation, biologists and managers need information on species diversity in threatened habitats. The resources available for such inventories remain severely limited, increasing the need to develop speedier ways to estimate the status of target habitats. We present a study of the use of such techniques in the highly fragmented oak savannas of southern Ontario, including selection of indicator taxa, use of rapid biodiversity assessment based on morphospecies, and analysis of community structure. We found that butterflies and skippers can be used to predict richness among Hymenoptera in the study sites, which is consistent with the hypothesis that these easily surveyed Lepidoptera are good candidates for indicator status. Richness values for hymenoptera morphospecies in these savanna remnants were strongly correlated with species richness scores as estimated by systematists, although nonspecialists tended to "split" species into more than one morphospecies. Finally, both the Hymenoptera and Lepidoptera communities in these oak savannas exhibited a high degree of nestedness, suggesting that local extinctions, mostly undocumented, are important determinants of the richness patterns across these widely separated savanna study sites. We found no evidence of significant spatial autocorrelation, probably because of the wide separation of study sites.     

Genetic Variability in Swayne's Hartebeest, an Endangered Antelope of Ethiopia

Abstract: Swayne's hartebeest ( Alcelaphus buselaphus swaynei ) is an endangered antelope that survives in four or five relict populations in Ethiopia. We examined the two main populations (Senkele and Nechisar) for mitochondrial (D-loop) and nuclear (microsatellite) variability in order to measure levels of genetic variation within the subspecies and degree of differentiation between populations. For comparison, we examined samples from a large population of red hartebeest ( Alcelaphus buselaphus caama ). Both swaynei and caama exhibited high levels of variation. There was significant differentiation between the populations of swaynei at Senkele and Nechisar, and gene diversity in Nechisar, the smaller of the two populations, was significantly lower than that in Senkele. Many mitochondrial haplotypes and microsatellite alleles present at high frequencies among the Senkele individuals were missing in Nechisar, suggesting that the translocation of animals from Senkele undertaken in 1974 did not contribute notably to the gene pool in Nechisar. Subsamples taken from Senkele in 1988 and 1995 showed a significant change in allele frequencies, a change that probably can be attributed to a massive population decline during this period. We recommend that both populations be protected in situ to maintain as much as possible of the diversity that exists within the taxon and that a breeding program be established. In spite of the earlier unsuccessful attempt, we argue that translocation of animals for enhancement of population size as well as genetic variation in Nechisar should be considered.     

Molecular Evidence for a Unique Evolutionary Lineage of Endangered Sonoran Desert Fish (Genus Poeciliopsis)

Efforts to restore an endangered species in its former range should be based on a sound understanding of evolutionary relationships among remaining natural populations. In this study mitochondrial (mt) DNA diversity within and among Gila River drainage populations of the endangered Sonoran topminnow ( Poeciliopsis occidentalis ) in Arizona was compared to that from neighboring populations in Sonora, Mexico, where the species remains locally abundant. No mtDNA diversity was detected within or among samples from the Gila River basin in Arizona. But considerable variation was found within and among populations from several river systems in Sonora. Examination of mtDNA from a population that inhabits the upper reaches of the Río Yaqui in southeastern Arizona revealed substantial divergence between it and all other populations examined. We comment on the implications of this divergent population for topminnow management in Arizona and argue for more-detailed genetic and morphological studies to determine the distributional limits and specific status of this highly divergent form.     

Extirpation of Crayfish in a Lake Affected by Long-Range Anthropogenic Acidification

Plastic Lake, Ontario, remote from any point sources of pollutants, is the most thoroughly investigated anthropogenically acidifying lake in North America. As the lake pH decreased from 5.8 to 5.6 over a period of six years, a resident population of the crayfish Orconectes virilis , which had previously exhibited abundances typical of those of nearby Canadian Shield lakes, became extinct. This is one of only half a dozen documented examples of biotic impoverishment due to the long-range aerial transport of strong acids. The loss of crayfish could not be explained by changes in the predaceous fish community. However, the pH range over which extinction occurred matched that of experimentally acidified Lake 223 where O. virilis began to decline dramatically due to recruitment failures, calcium imbalances, and possibly parasite infection. O. virilis appears to be the third component of the benthic invertebrate fauna of Plastic Lake that has been extirpated by anthropogenic acidification.     

Integrating Landscape and Metapopulation Modeling Approaches: Viability of the Sharp-Tailed Grouse in a Dynamic Landscape

Abstract:  The lack of management experience at the landscape scale and the limited feasibility of experiments at this scale have increased the use of scenario modeling to analyze the effects of different management actions on focal species. However, current modeling approaches are poorly suited for the analysis of viability in dynamic landscapes. Demographic (e.g., metapopulation) models of species living in these landscapes do not incorporate the variability in spatial patterns of early successional habitats, and landscape models have not been linked to population viability models. We link a landscape model to a metapopulation model and demonstrate the use of this model by analyzing the effect of forest management options on the viability of the Sharp-tailed Grouse (  Tympanuchus phasianellus ) in the Pine Barrens region of northwestern Wisconsin (U.S.A.). This approach allows viability analysis based on landscape dynamics brought about by processes such as succession, disturbances, and silviculture. The landscape component of the model (LANDIS) predicts forest landscape dynamics in the form of a time series of raster maps. We combined these maps into a time series of patch structures, which formed the dynamic spatial structure of the metapopulation component (RAMAS). Our results showed that the viability of Sharp-tailed Grouse was sensitive to landscape dynamics and demographic variables such as fecundity and mortality. Ignoring the landscape dynamics gave overly optimistic results, and results based only on landscape dynamics (ignoring demography) lead to a different ranking of the management options than the ranking based on the more realistic model incorporating both landscape and demographic dynamics. Thus, models of species in dynamic landscapes must consider habitat and population dynamics simultaneously.     

Effects of a Proposed Ex Situ Conservation Program on In Situ Conservation of the Babirusa, an Endangered Suid

Abstract: Detailed data are rarely available to show how interventions such as captive breeding programs can create an uncontrolled demand for live specimens of endangered species. We present a case study of the effect of a planned, internationally recognized captive breeding program on trade in the endangered babirusa wild pig from July to December 1998. Although the program had not yet begun, international interest in the captive breeding of babirusas gave hunters and dealers the false impression that there was a potentially lucrative and officially sanctioned national and international demand for any live babirusas they might catch. Swift action by the Indonesian authorities halted this trade, but the study provides a warning about the damage that can be caused to the conservation of a species if management programs are instituted without a full understanding of the practicalities of its conservation, particularly interactions between the species and local people.     

Effects of Population Size on Seed Production and Germinability in an Endangered, Fragmented Grassland Plant

Abstract: Fragmentation and isolation of plant populations are thought to affect demographic processes such as seed production and cause reductions in fitness. I followed seed set over a 3-year period in eight populations of the endangered Rutidosis leptorrhynchoides (Asteraceae) that differed in population size from 13 to over 5000 flowering plants. Germinability of the resultant seed was also examined to determine whether small populations had lower fitness than large populations. Seed set was significantly associated with population size in 2 of the 3 years. Small populations (<30 flowering plants) produced significantly fewer seeds per head in 1994 and 1995 than did large populations (500 to over 5000 flowering plants), which did not differ significantly from one another. There was, however, substantial variation within populations. In 1993 seed production did not follow any simple relationship with population size, possibly because environmental stress from low rainfall had an overriding impact. Differences in seed germinability between populations were largely not evident, suggesting that this aspect of fitness has not declined substantially in small populations relative to large populations. This study suggests that nongenetic, demographic factors are of immediate importance to the persistence of small populations of R. leptorrhynchoides because of their potential impacts on seedling recruitment.     

Genetic Diversity in the Endangered Lily Harperocallis flava and a Close Relative, Tofieldia racemosa

We examined genetic diversity in 464 individuals of the monotypic lily Harperocallis flava in its two habitats (seepage bogs and a roadside right-of-way) and five populations of a co-occurring related lily, Tofieldia racemosa. The endangered H. flava, endemic to the Apalachicola lowlands of the Florida panhandle, was monomorphic for the 22 loci scored. In contrast, T. racemosa had a high proportion of polymorphic loci ( P_s = 68.2%; P_p = 47.7%) with moderate genetic diversity (   H_es = 0.134; H_ep = 0.114). Estimated gene flow was moderately high ( Nm = 2.07) for T. racemosa, with most (93%) of the total genetic diversity found within populations. Despite the low level of genetic divergence, some isolation by distance was detected among T. racemosa populations. Harperocallis flava and other species without discernable genetic variation pose special problems for conservation biologists because genetic criteria are not available for the development of ex situ and in situ conservation and management strategies.     

Lack of Genic Diversity Within and Among Populations of an Endangered Plant, Howellia aquatilis

Abstract: Howellia aquatilis (Campanulaceae) is a rare aquatic plant considered endangered throughout its range in the Pacific Northwest. Howellia appears to have a narrow ecological amplitude, occurring only in temporary ponds suwounded by trees. Anatomical observations of developing flowers indicate a restrictive breeding system approaching obligate self-fertilization. We used protein electrophoresis to examine the genetic structure of four populations from throughout the range of species. Eight enzymes encoded by 18 putative loci showed no variation, either within or among populations. Howellia's small ecological amplitude and lack of genetic variability lead us to believe that the species is prone to extinction A conservation strategy for this species should include protection of ponds that are currently inhabited by Howellia as well as ponds that will become appropriate habitat in the future. To insure against large-scale environmental perturbations, multiple pond clusters throughout the range of the species should be protected.     

Centennial Decline in the Trophic Level of an Endangered Seabird after Fisheries Decline

Abstract:  Coastal marine ecosystems worldwide have undergone such profound transformations from overfishing that trophic interactions observed today might be artifacts of these changes. We determined whether the trophic level of an endangered seabird, the Marbled Murrelet ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ), has declined over the past 100 years after the collapse of Pacific sardine ( Sardinops sadax ) fisheries in the late 1940s and the recent declines of similar fisheries in central California. We compared stable-isotope signatures of δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C in feathers of museum specimens collected before fisheries decline with values in murrelet feathers collected recently. Values of δ¹⁵N in prebreeding diets declined significantly, 1.4‰ or 38% of a trophic level, over the past century during cool ocean conditions and by 0.5‰ during warm conditions, whereas postbreeding values of δ¹⁵N were nearly constant. The δ¹³C values in prebreeding diets declined by 0.8‰, suggesting an increased importance of krill in modern compared with historic prebreeding diets, but postbreeding diets did not change. Stable-isotope mixing models indicated that the proportion of energetically superior, high-trophic-level prey declined strongly whereas energetically poor, low-trophic-level and midtrophic-level prey increased in the prebreeding diet in cool years when murrelet reproduction was likely to be high. Decreased prey resources have caused murrelets to fish further down on the food web, appear partly responsible for poor murrelet reproduction, and may have contributed to its listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.